QUESTION: I find it interesting that the Roman coin the academics said was fake has now been shown that it had been in circulation. Is this what you talk about how academics are always trying to reject anything that upset their established view of science or history?
SC
ANSWER: Absolutely. It does not matter the field. It is always the same. The Book Historia Augusta they swore was a fake and attributed it even to a monk a few years before. Then there was Homer. They declare that was all fiction until Schleman set sail and discovered Troy, Mycena, Thebes and all the cities they said were fiction. Why this is the standard I cannot explain. They rejected Keynes until the politicians turned to the idea. They reject the existence of a Business Cycle to this very day. You have to beat them over the head with something to prove your point.
Sponsianus was aA second usurper from the Danube region, which today they claim is Ukraine. Sponsianus appears to have come to power briefly in Dacia defending the area from an invasion of Germanic tribes of the Alamanni in 244AD during the early reign of Philip I (244-249AD) based upon coin finds bearing the name Sponsianus who was otherwise unknown to history. Like Historia Augusta, the academics immediately called the coin a fake. Anything that seems to upset the academic narrative they immediately reject regardless of the field.
In 1713, two gold aurei bearing the name of Sponsianus were unearthed in Transylvania, Romania together with coins of Gordian III and Philip I known as the Arab. This was followed by the suggestion that Sponsianus was a usurper during the reign of Philip I after he murdered Gordian III. Instantly, most academics declared them as forgeries. Simply because they found no written record mentioning this usurper, they conclude the coin must be fake.
However, this was the precise period when the Goths began to invade. We know that the Carpi began to invade Dacia no later than 246AD and within one year they were joined by the Goths to invade Moesia, which included the find site which was in Transylvania, Romania. We know of one other usurper at this time in the same region Pacatian (248AD), but in the end, he was murdered by his own troops. There was yet one other usurper – Silbannacus who is known only from a single coin that now resides in the British Museum. Silbannacus most likely led a very short-lived rebellion during this same period on the Rhine perhaps about the same time period as Pacatian in the Moesia (Romania).
Silbannacus appears to have defended the region against the Alamanni during the first half of 244 AD was coins declare a victory as well as a usurpation of power with the support of the Senate. It is possible that Sponsianus may have been Severus Hostilianus of the Byzantine sources which may have confused him with Hostiliaisn (251AD), the young son of Trajan Decius (249-251AD).
Consequently, Sponsianus may be the same person noted by his Zonaras who refers to Severos Stilianos. It may have been the usurpation of Marcus Silbannacus and his support by the Senate that forced Philip to make concessions to the Persians. No emperor Sponsianus is mentioned in the Historia Augusta.
What we do know is that Philip I had murdered Gordian IIIin his attempt to seize the throne. However, he was not equipped to manage the entire empire. As the invasions began from the Northern Germanic tribes, this is clearly why we see these usurpations, not from a quest to seize the throne as much as the political turmoil facing these invasions.
Trajan Decius (249-251AD) was hailed emperor by the troops on the Danube and and he marched against Philip I and defeated him and his son at Verona. However, Trajan Decius was then the first emperor to be killed in battle against the Goths. It was because of these invasions that Trajan Decius took this as the Christians refusing to honor the gods of Rome angered the gods and as such he ordered the first widespread persecution of the Christians in 250AD because of these invasions.
History of the Region
The Alamanni several Germanic tribes including the Ubii, the Sicambri, the Teneteri, the Usipetes, the Catti, and the Cherusces. They were the inhabitants of the upper and lower Rhine, and those beyond that great river, such as the Westphaliaus, the Hessians, and the Saxons, as far as the Elbe and the Weser. They did not imitate the Roman coinage but issued their own Celtic gold staters early on.
It was Drusus, during the time of Augustus (27BC-14AD) who constructed forts and established garrisons throughout this region, in order to hold the Germanic tribes in check; at the same time that he opened a road for his troops through the Hyrcanian forest. The victories of Drusus (brother of Tiberius (14-37AD) over the Alamanni were well known. However, those exploits were not followed by the expansion of the empire and the subjugation of the Germanic tribes of that region. Thus, that area was never reduced to the form of a province.
Following this period, the Alamanni inhabiting that part of Germany, which is situated between the Danube, and the Upper Rhine, were finally subdued at first by Caracalla (198-217AD), and later by Aurelian (270-275AD) Later on, the father of Constantine I the Great (307-337AD), Constantius Chlorus (393-305), while still a caesar under the Tetrarchy, overthrew them with a great slaughter. They continued, nevertheless, from time to time, to wage war against subsequent emperors, from Constantine the Great to Gratian (367-383AD). They were finally brought to subjection 496 AD when they met with a major defeat by the Franks under King Clodovicus.
The primary reason for the Academic rejection of these coins stemmed from that reverse of the coin depicts an image borrowed from coins minted by C. Augurinus dating back to 187 BC. The inclusion of the Republican era reverse has led to suggest that Sponsianus was the leader of his senatorial resistance against Philip I. In opposition to this, some academics have suggested that it is unlikely that his senatorial recognition would have used along with a Republican reverse from the coins celebrating the family of the Minucii by C.Augurinus.
because there existed emperors appointed by the Senate of Pupienus (238AD) and Balbinus (238AD) Therefore, it has been argued that if Sponsianus was supported by the Senate he would have used a more current theme for his coinage. While the series is interesting, they certainly are not conclusive. It cannot be ruled out that Sponsianus perhaps claimed his right to the throne arguing he had descended from that ancient senatorial family. After all, Constantine the Great did that with Claudius II (268-270AD) in an attempt to so some legitimacy.
It is most likely that there were invasions in that area on the Danube frontier whereas he may have been held Emperor to defend the local region from the invaders. We have seen this before even for example Postumus (260-268AD) who claim the throne of the Gallic Empire to protect the people from invaders from the North. He issues coinage showing he was there to protect them from the barbarians which Rome could not. This region of the Danube was under attack at the time around 244 AD by the Alamanni the Germanic tribes. There have been additional ports of coins discovered in Romania that also date to this period of 244 AD suggesting that there was political instability and war in the region during that time.
QUESTION: I have been following Socrates for quite a while. It certainly seems to provide the long-term view quite reliably. You said it has taught you. So I take it that is why it is AI because you did not precisely code it to do these things?
WK
ANSWER: I created Socrates to monitor everything. As a hedge fund manager, I could see how everything was connected. Read Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs for 1931 and it accurately described how a panic unfolds is led by a liquidity crisis the same as when Russian bonds collapsed in 1998 creating the fall of Long Term Capital Management.
Any mistakes are mine personally in the interpretation. That is what I mean by it has taught me a lot over the years. A lot of clients just rely on Socrates – not me personally. The arrays are probably one of the important aspects. Once again, it has nothing to do with my opinion. So many clients get familiar with it and apply their own interpretations.
Here is the array we published in July and we were touting the August/September period all year. We can see the violent thrust up and then down – the typical panic but over two months. It depends on the week it generally hits. It called for a Directional Change in October followed by another in November and then December made a new high and then retreated.
Socrates has done a good job. Once again, it is not me personally making these forecasts. As a human, we are all subject to error. Socrates is not perfect. The Global Market Watch is an ongoing project and I am stunned at how many different patterns it is coming up with. This demonstrates that complexity is an understatement. Below are the Global Market Watch reports for the 1932 low on a weekly and monthly level which was the week of July 4th, 1932. We can see that it is not perfect. When it is saying a “New Pattern Forming” it means this is a new pattern not yet in the database. The number of patterns is approaching 100,000. Nevertheless, it did pick the 1932 low correctly. Not every day into that low. Thus, it is not a trading tool, but something to just alert you to pay attention. Nothing is ever INFALLIBLE.
Please help as I invest in mostly ETFs from Australia. I was getting USD exposure but now looks to be ending by Jan 1st, 2023.
I was Informed 2 days ago.
Could you do a post about this and any potential workarounds as I’d take a guess a lot of International clients would have a similar issue.
The US Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) has issued a new provision under Section 1446(f) of the Internal Revenue Code (“IRC”) that primarily impacts non-US Persons who invest in US PTP Securities. With effect from 1 January 2023, non-US Persons will incur a 10% withholding tax on gross proceeds from sales or trading of US PTP Securities.
Regards Dean
ANSWER: This is once again the Biden Administration hunting every possible dime it can find while handing endless billion to Zelensky who may be on track to become the richest corrupt politician in the entire world. This is the notice going out to all foreigners investing in the once land of the free and home of the brave which has been downgraded to the land of the absolute fools without the hill. One bank has sent this to their clients trading in US ETFs.
Dear Customer,
Withholding Tax of 10% – Publicly Traded Partnership Interest (PTPs)
With effect from 1 January 2023, a 10% withholding will be imposed on sales and certain distributions associated with PTPs or exchange traded funds (ETFs).
PTPs trade like stocks on major U.S. and global exchanges and are often indistinguishable from equities, ETFs and other commonly traded instruments. It is critical that you understand these tax implications when you hold such PTPs and you should seek the appropriate professional advice if you are unsure of the contents of this email.
Background:
The Internal Revenue Code Section 1446(f) issued by the US Internal Revenue Service imposes rules relating to withholding of tax on transfers of Publicly Traded Partnership Interest (PTPs) and will take effect on 1 January 2023. The new rules consist of the following:
· All PTPs, including non-U.S. PTPs, are subject to the new requirements if they have gains that are effectively connected with a trade or business within the United States.
· 10% withholding will be applied to sales and certain distributions associated with PTPs. (Please note that where there is any existing withholding tax being applied today, for example to other distributions, those will continue to be applied with no change/ no reduction)
Please visit _____ official website > Notices for more details.
If you have any further questions, please email us or call our Customer Service line.
Section 1446 (see link) is part of a segment of the Code that governs withholding on nonresident aliens and foreign corporations.
Section 1446 itself deals with withholding on foreign partners who have income that is effectively connected with the US through a partnership. Section 1446(f) adds a withholding requirement that applies to the disposition of partnership interests, but it does not apply if the selling partner provides an appropriate affidavit:
“No person shall be required to deduct and withhold any amount under paragraph (1) with respect to any disposition if the transferor furnishes to the transferee an affidavit by the transferor stating, under penalty of perjury, the transferor’s United States taxpayer identification number and that the transferor is not a foreign person.”
I.R.C. § 1446(f)(2)(A).
I doubt that section 1446 applies here, as my understanding is that ETFs are taxed as registered investment companies, not as partnerships. But I am not an accountant or a tax lawyer. My reading on this text suggests that this turns on the definition of an ETF which is clearly not a partnership.
Those who are being harassed by various banks should contact their legal departments and demand their interpretation as to why suddenly an ETF is a partnership. I would love to see what explanation they have provided to apply this tax. If there is some other code they are overlapping or how they are coming up with this or are they acting out of sheer overcaution? If they will not provide an explanation, I suggest you close the account ASAP or wire out all funds until you find another firm.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Dec 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrongpread the love
The Central Bank Dilemma has become a major crisis in and of itself. I have been warning these past years that the ONLY tool a central bank has is manipulating the interest rates. Quantitative Easing was primarily to influence long-term rates indirectly since the Fed can only set short-term rates. During the past nine months, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has raised interest rates at the fastest pace of any Federal Reserve chair since the 1980s. While some complain that this has triggered a stock market rout, and caused the housing market to come to a standstill, others argue that he has increased the fears of an imminent recession.
That was the domestic part. The Fed’s raising of interest rates has impacted the emerging markets including contributing to the chaos in the financial markets in China since many banks and provinces borrowed in dollars to save interest rates – or so they thought. It has forced the European Central Bank to raise interest rates and the net result was to unleash a crisis in long-term debt where life companies and pension funds cannot continue to buy the long-term with rates rising and bonds declining the day after you just bought a traunch.
Janet Yellen, who wants to hunt down everyone who sold a used bike on eBay for $600, understands the crisis we have erupting in debt because of rising interest rates and investors are afraid of the long end. Her proposal to buy in the long-term and swap it for the short-term recognizes the fact that we have a major debt crisis unfolding and she has come up with another scheme to keep kicking the can down the road.
Consequently, with inflation hitting 40-year highs, the warning signs are there that the central banks cannot do anything to address the economic crisis. Hence, initially, Fed officials were unanimous that rates needed to rise aggressively. Now, however, there are cracks in that view. These cracks will become fissures over how this type of inflation is NOT speculative but shortages set in motion by COVID and then accelerated by this drive for war with Russia and the insane sanctions they imposed on even private citizens.
While some expect inflation to cool steadily next year and want to stop raising rates soon, the problem is that inflation driven by shortages will not subside with a reduction in demand. Even real estate replacement costs have risen despite the fact that the market has started to pause. The cost to build a home in many areas is already higher than existing homes, which tends to create a floor before prices. Others worry inflation won’t ease enough next year in the face of a war that is escalating, and they defer to the old standard of raising interest rates to temper inflation.
That leaves Chairman Powell struggling in the eternal seas of politics lost in the middle as the arguments get louder on both sides. Powell will be challenged trying to chart a course through war, stagflations, and complete fiscal mismanagement by our politicians. The next stage of interest-rate policy presents very difficult questions concerning how high to raise rates from here, and how long to hold them at that level in this Pyhric War against Inflation.
Imagine if you could have bought a loaf of bread in 1932 for 7 cents. That 7 cents would be $3.09 today would be a gain of 4,414%. Of course, you could not even freeze it that long. That is also the problem with many who sell investments. Gold was $20.67 in 1932 so that has been a gain of 8990%. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrials bottomed in 1932 at 40.56. That has been a gain of 83,992%.
In 1955, the Dreyfus Fund was established by a New York stockbroker named Jack J. Dreyfus, Jr. (1913–2009) It was Dreyfus who acquired the open-end Nesbett Fund, which had $2.3 million in assets. This ambitious stockbroker renamed the fund bestowing his own family name upon it which would become a household word in the decades ahead. By year end, the assets grew to $5.6 million as 1955 drew to a close. The best decision Dreyfus made was to buy 400 shares of an unlisted stock. That “sleeper” stock was Polaroid which he bought for $31 7/8. Dreyfus would watch this single purchase rise to $6,372 per share – not counting splits – in the years ahead. This outstanding performance almost single-handedly led to the mutual fund boom in the 1960s.
Sometimes a new technology paves the way for something that changes the game.
QUESTION: I want to thank you for Socrates. It picked the turn in the real estate in January amazingly. Do you see the high-end and regional divergences continuing?
WH
ANSWER: Yes. The Directional Change for 2021 was spot on. Our index began declining in January 2022 anticipating the first rate hike on March 17, 2022, by a quarter point. We would expect lower prices into 2023 and this should be the typical 2-year reaction low. It appears that post-2023, we would begin to see the shift where private assets will start to trade at a premium to the public assets of the government. The spread between government and private will decline as was the case during the Great Depression as countries began to default on their debt.
I really do have to wonder if my dog is smarter than most Americans who seem to have just lost their minds. My dog makes connections, anticipates what I will do, and studies my habits to predict and respond. I never knew a dog was really smart. She has learned numerous words and I have had to even spell certain words for she will respond if she hears the word. Dogs are indeed far more intelligent than I ever expected. Various studies show a dog is typically as intelligent as a two-year-old human. I can point in the sky at an airplane and she looks up. Not even a chimpanzee does that, or apparently most Americans. If you point to evidence they will not look.
The majority of Americans just listen to the propaganda, never questions anything, and assume the government is always telling them the truth because they care. Janet Yellen tried to get Congress to pass a formal act that banks and everyone had to report on Americans for every $600 transaction. Congress refused and her story was they were after the evil super-rich. The problem, the rich really are not selling stuff on eBay, using cash apps for side deals. That is the realm of the young and lower income.
So after the Biden Administration lost that battle, they simply told the IRS to do it on their own. Any transaction online over $600 is not subject to audit and you will find out the real reason they hired 87,000 armed IRS agents. You certainly do not need 87,000 IRS Agents to hunt down the 735 billionaires in the United States. They outright lie to your face, and many cheer.
People will NEVER wake up it seems. I have known politicians who actually believe that EVERYTHING belongs to the state, they decide on how much you are allowed to keep. They must have sipped history class for virtually EVERY Revolution in history was inspired by taxes. Even the famous line from Shakespeare “the first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers” actually refers to the king’s prosecutors for private people had not right to a lawyer. It was all about a revolution and the “lawyers” were confiscating people’s houses for their inability to pay taxes.
The American Revolution was also sparked by taxation. Remember the French Revolution and the slogan they attributed to the King’s wife – let them eat cake was also all about taxes and oppression
COMMENT FROM HUNGARY: Dear Marty, You were correct again. Price controls do not work in the long run. The Hungarian government introduced a price cap on gasoline and diesel a few months ago, but a few hours ago this evening they had to let it go(they “tried everything in their power to help but the damn bureaucrats in Brussels who voted for the sanctions”.etc etc.).
The holiday season, panic buying, no gas another nail into the trust in our government’s coffin. Marty these people really have no clue what the hell they’re doing. We have several food products that also have price controls: Wheat, sugar, eggs, etc. And interestingly supermarkets simply stop selling them or they sell brown sugar (no price control) instead of white sugar (price controlled, the maximum amount you can purchase in one go is 3kg i believe). When will they learn (not admit) or at least stop blaming others for their own brain-dead decisions?
I honestly hope that whatever the hell comes after 2032 will be better than this nonsense. Thanks for all you do Marty. Keep up the fight, and get some well-needed rest during the holidays. I reckon you’re getting more phone calls than usual… All the best, RH
ANSWER: You know the most astonishing fact is that this was not even my personal opinion. All one need do is consult history. NEVER has any attempt to freeze prices to prevent inflation EVER worked even once.
The Roman emperor Diocletian (284-305AD) tried to impose wage and price controls in an effort to prevent inflation that was soaring because of a collapse in confidence in the Roman government. The Edit on Maximum Prices was imposed during 201AD. It was an utter failure.
Even if we go back to the 4th century B.C., the Roman government bought corn (grain) and, in times of shortage, it re-sold it at a low fixed price to try to prevent inflation from shortages – as we have today. In 58BC, the Roman Senate went even further and granted every citizen free wheat. The politicians were trying to bribe the people as they are doing once again today. What happened was that the farmers began moving back to the city of Rome because they could live and eat without working – it was free. By the time Julius Caesar (100-44BC) crossed the Rubicon, one in three Romans was receiving government wheat. He was forced to create a census and found there were more people claiming welfare than there were possible people.
Those in government ALWAYS assume that since they possess a pen, they can write whatever law they desire and they will comply or be thrown in prison until they die. I was named FOREX Person of the Year in 2015 because we forecast the Euro/Swiss peg would break. I even met with the Swiss Central Bank and warned that the peg would break. I was told they would be able to hold it. I replied I think the odds are on my side since NOBODY in history has ever been able to do this. There was the British pound peh into the ERM the broking making Soros all his money. In 1997, there was the Asian Currency Crisis where all the pegs broke. then there was even Bretton Woods which was a fixed exchange rate that broke in 1971 and in 1973 I was called in for the first bank failure due to foreign exchange.
I have done my best trying to warn governments that they CANNOT fix currencies and even when they were forming the G5 with the Plaza Accord in 1985, I was called in and warned that lowering the dollar by 40% would lead to a major currency crisis and a crash by 1987. Never have they ever listened.
Perhaps, the ONLY time anyone in Europe or the United States than anyone in government ever listen was perhaps in 1997. They were starting the jawboning of the Yen for trade purposes once again. I wrote to Robert Rubin and he has Timothy Geithner respond who later became the Secretary of the Treasury. China has listened, but other than in 1997, I cannot say any central bank or government has EVER heeded my warnings that history is on my side – pegs NEVER work.
COMMENT: Marty; you should not be so hard on yourself. Nobody has tried harder than you to alter the outcome. Socrates is just unbeatable. I shared your hope that gold would have just cracked $1000 and that would have been a sling-sot up. But it stopped at $1045 and the reversals were elected and that was the end of that. As a long-term trader, I understood what you meant. I remember 1985 when gold just broke $300 and the leading gold analyst ___________ threw in the towel. You called that low and that’s when I started following your work. You weren’t just an analyst, you were a trader.
So ease up. You have done your best. As you said at the WEC, nobody has tried to defeat your own model as much as you, but you have always lost.
I for one hope you do Dubai in the Spring. It would be nice to see everyone in person again.
PD
REPLY: Oh, yes. I remember that trade. It takes a trader to understand why I said if gold could crack $1,000, it would then be propelled straight up into a slingshot. Perhaps one of the most important trading tools is that the market is like a pendulum. The further it swings in one direction, the fast it will be propelled in the opposite. That is why when bubble markets peak, the vast majority of the decline takes place in two to three key time units thereafter. The failure of gold to have cracked that $1,000 psychological level is also when it has languished thereafter.
Here is the Array from October 1984. It called all the moves correctly and the major low was February with the Panic Cycle the very next month. The next temp high was on the next Directional Change in August 1985.
I have to admit, probably the one forecast of Socrates that really impressed me personally was the Array we published in 1999, which you can find on the Wayback Machine. It had targeted a Panic Cycle in 2008 – 10 years in ADVANCE! It was projecting the collapse globally of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. Obviously, my personal comments are not forecasts. I cannot beat Socrates and nobody else can possibly beat it.
Trading observations are not forecasts. Even look at BitCoin Monthly. You see the standard 2-month decline, temp low, then the pendulum moves back in the opposite direction, but the power is diminished. The power is too strong on the decline side. These are just observations from being a trader. They are NOT the computer. So, yes, my comments are not forecasts but observations. The computer does the forecasting not me. Not even I can defeat Socrates.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 