Inflation is soaring with no end in sight. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in November, marking a 6.8% increase in inflation YoY. According to the Labor Department, this is the fastest pace of inflation since June 1982. In addition, Core-CPI rose 0.5% last month, amounting to a 4.9% annual increase, the quickest advancement since 1991.
Energy prices alone have spiked 33.3% in the past year, and gasoline prices are up 58.1%. Over the past 12 months, food and energy prices rose at the most rapid pace in 13 years. Shelter costs, amounting to one-third of CPI, rose 3.8% on an annual basis. This level has not been seen since the 2007 housing crisis wreaked havoc on the US real estate market.
Despite pay increases of 4.8% this year, real hourly earnings decreased 1.9% over the past 12-months. Service costs rose at the fastest pace since 2007 as well, advancing 3.4% over the past year. Apparel costs are also up by 5% since last November. Everywhere you look, prices are drastically rising.
Overall, the cost of living is astronomical. Basic necessities such as food and shelter price increases have caused more middle-class Americans to begin living paycheck to paycheck. The Federal Reserve claimed it would step in if inflation reached an unsustainable level. A 6.8% increase is unsustainable, inflation is not transitory, and neither the government nor the Fed has made a valid effort to control this growing problem.
COMMENT: Hi Martin. Thank you for your work. The chip and supply shortage has not improved. I live in America outside a major city. My cellular device failed at the beginning of November so I ordered a replacement directly from Samsung. Best Buy and my cellular provider were both out of the phone I was seeking, and I went to around five stores. Shipping from Samsung was supposed to take a bit over a week, then two weeks, and now the ETA is in January. The stores I went into had Apple iPhones but not Androids. Frustrating.
REPLY: Now is an unfortunate time to need a new phone. Numerous original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reported failing to secure crucial parts this year due to semiconductor shortages. Counterpoint Research lowered their forecast of global smartphone shipments from 1.45 billion units to 1.41 billion. Their study further suggests that smartphone OEMs only received 80% of the crucial components they need this year to manufacture phones during the second half of the year.
Samsung completely canceled their Galaxy Note series this year as they knew they would not be able to obtain the components. “Samsung, Oppo, Xiaomi have all been affected and we are lowering our forecasts. But Apple seems to be the most resilient and least affected by the AP (application processor) shortage situation,” Tom Kang, a researcher with Counterpoint reported in October. Kang’s research did not indicate why Apple was more immune to the chip shortage. Numerous companies are racing to produce highly in-demand chips, but it will take time for manufacturing to begin.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 145 Comments
Well, there’s another “economist” who can be set into the folder of ‘no longer useful’. During his appearance today on CBS Face The Nation, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, finishes his segment by revealing his underlying precept: Climate Change policy is now the economic policy driver of all his investment advice.
Within the interview, El-Erian said the “characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve.” Additionally, El-Erian said inflation is likely to remain high into the next year and perhaps beyond. Unfortunately, other than those two points of generally well educated accuracy, everything else is wrapped up in the political correctness of climate change…. which, you don’t really discover until the very end of the interview. WATCH:
The baseline for El-Erian saying the Build Back Better spending fiasco is a good thing, is based on accepting the pretense that massive amounts of federal spending will be needed to structurally change the U.S. economy from fossil fuel use to the Green New Deal. If you do not believe in this transformation, there is no merit to any component of the BBB spending proposal. It really is that simple.
As a consequence, El-Erian is staking the position that climate change agenda politics is now the focal point from which all other economic policy will be determined. He has conceded in his mind and worldview, perhaps based on his associations and peer discussions, that any forward economic analysis must therefore establish itself from the alternative fuel position.
It is only from the position that climate change is baked into forward economic outlooks that El-Erian can state inflation is structurally survivable, at the current level, with additional spending by federal government.
If he’s right…if congress does pass the BBB/GND at a level they are currently debating, then inflation will rise at/near current levels through Jan, Feb, March, then plateau around March/April for a few months, and then spike again -even higher- sometime around the spring 2022.
Keep in mind, in order for inflation to spike again in 2022, it will be building upon the prior massive inflationary step of 2021, because inflation is a measure of the percent change in prices year over year.
In 2021, we experienced around a 5% jump in overall CPI prices starting in the spring. That initial inflation jump cycles through at the same time next year, and you would expect the rate of inflation to drop or stabilize once the comparison period is passed in 2022. If the BBB bill is passed, the rate will jump again even when it cycles through the calendar.
Example: December 2020 bread was $3.00
December 2021 bread is $4.00 (25% increase over 2020)
June 2022 bread at $5.00 is a 20% increase over 2021. Price difference same, but the rate of inflation is lower.
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Imagine the prices in the scenario above if the rate of inflation in 2022 is the same or higher than 2021. That’s the part people need to start thinking about now.
Example-2: December 2020 Gasoline was $2.00/gal
December 2021 Gasoline is $3/gal (50% increase)
June 2022 Gasoline is $4.50/gal (50% increase), $5/gal, $5.50/gal etc
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The downstream consequences of interim energy policy shifts are major increases in current energy costs.
Few people realize how much everything jumps in price simply because oil, gas and energy costs increase. The entire process of creating stuff (raw materials), moving stuff, processing stuff (intermediate), transporting stuff, finishing stuff, shipping stuff, storing stuff, distributing stuff and selling stuff becomes a rising cumulative cost inside the supply chain.
When energy prices go up, a snowball effect starts traveling down the mountain getting bigger and bigger as it heads towards your house.
As Obama said, “Under my administration, energy prices will necessarily skyrocket“, but he could never actually do the structural energy change because: (1) Republicans took control of the House in January 2011; and (2) the economic blast damage would have been just too catastrophic for any attempt at re-election in 2012.
Joe Biden frees the leftists from those ideological constraints.
Everything you would normally consider to be a concern, anything that would limit the extremes of any legislative effort, has been removed. They plan to lose next year, so they have nothing to lose right now.
Joe Biden is an appointed figurehead for a background agenda driven by Obama’s Chicago Marxists and the global leftists.
The Biden far-left policy agenda is strategically a massive throw everything at the legislative process, in an effort to create major change in a short period of time. COVID is being used as the cover story, Biden is the disposable front man, and Nancy Pelosi is the facilitating legislative cohort.
Massive inflation, skyrocketing gas prices, collapsed supply chains, empty shelves or shortages in products, increased crime, devalued dollar, diminished international influence, horrible polling, predictable political consequences, none of this matters because Biden is disposable to the agenda.
Additionally, there are no limits to the obvious lies they will tell, because no one inside the administration cares about any public impact. This current effort is to drive the agenda regardless of political damage that can only catch them, or block them, in the 2022 mid-term election.
The “Green New Deal” legislation *is* the “Build Back Better” legislation. Once they get that bill passed, it’s mission accomplished. This is a legacy move for Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden. This is the fundamental change part.
It appears in the interview with CBS Margaret Brennan, Mohamed El-Erian is accepting this Build Back Better legislation (or something similar) will pass the Senate and be enacted into law. At the very least, he is accepting that ‘climate change policy’ is now fundamentally accepted by U.S. voters. That perspective forms the baseline for him saying the climate change agenda is now baked into the U.S. economy, and inflation will have to be accepted – albeit at a debatable scale.
I hope El-Erian is wrong, because he is massively underestimating the scale of what will happen with total economic inflation as a consequence.
Factually, I think his analysis is corrupted by his associations on Wall Street. The elites (in his circle) think We The People are not smart enough to see what can happen if this complete transformation of the U.S. energy system is changed; or as healthcare policy architect Jonathan Gruber later said publicly, “We relied upon the stupidity of the American voter” to create Obamacare, the transformation in the healthcare system.
I am cautiously optimistic they are both wrong right now, although I can also see how this COVID noise is providing them a lot of cover.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 319 Comments
The NBC media panel for Meet the Press is absolutely apoplectic about their inability to destroy President Donald Trump and his supportive base of pragmatic, awakened Americans. The pearl-clutching and fear are palpable, as the leftist roundtable contemplates future elections that may deconstruct decades of election control, manipulation, fraud and falsehood.
What the panel of John Heilemann, Marianna Sotomayor, Kimberly Atkins Stohr and Brendan Buck really fear is the pesky system within our constitutional republic we call ‘federalism’. They need to keep their attacks against Donald Trump cast in the role of eliminating baby Hitler simply to avoid confronting the flaws in their own ideological arguments. They fear freedom. They need the collective. Individual liberty is against their own sense of self and purpose.
If you listen through their nonsense (not for the faint of heart), all of the panel apoplexy boils down to individual states in control of their own elections. What they fear is federalism itself, which makes sense when you remind yourself there are two generations of leftists who were taught that collectivism (the we are the world crap), where only one centralized federal government, of all consuming power and authority, should be allowed to make decisions. WATCH:
While it would be fun to debate a group like this, the core of their fear is a diminishing ability to control. As CTH reminds frequently, the need for control is a reaction to fear. This applies in all levels of social society from elections to COVID responses. Elites need control, because at their core they fear the inherent inequity of freedom.
Sally Struthers pleads into the camera for donations to feed the starving child in her arms in Africa… leftists swoon, and the U.N. activates. Meanwhile, some pragmatist watching the commercial leans over to her husband and says, “I wonder why the cameraman didn’t just give the kid a sandwich”?
Control is a reaction to fear. Think in terms of politics and society – the fear behind leftist politics is the fear that someone might withhold things (opportunities, money, whatever) from me. Fear that if you live your life in a way I dislike that it might affect my life. Fear that if you get that job, there will be nothing left for me. Fear that if you make tons of money, it means there’s less money out there for me. So, people who believe in leftist ideologies seek control as a means of trying to create guarantees and safeguards against those circumstances they fear.
The DC UniParty knows exactly how to exploit that fear, and both Democrats and Republicans love to provide those guarantees and safeguards.
Modern “liberals”, leftists, try to control the world and people to enable their comfort and happiness. Which, as we know, is an endless quest. Trying to control others does nothing in the way of making oneself happy. By extension, voting in this mindset so that government can try to control others will also – shocking – not lead to a happier, more comfortable life.
The conservative (and moderate, independent, but for the sake of expediency, the conservative), on the other hand, relies on himself to meet his own needs. And the trade off of being free to live his life as he wishes, is also understanding that he has to make peace with how you live yours. By extension, aware that he wants to be able to hold onto this liberty and freedom forever, the conservative votes accordingly, so that everyone can remain free and in charge of his or her own life.
But here’s the crucial difference, perhaps, particularly where misery on the left stems: The conservative does not worry, so to speak, about you. The conservative knows that you were born with the same access to self-love, self-empowerment, self-determination and self-reliance that we all were, no matter the circumstances into which you were born. (Think about the millions of people this country has allowed to crawl up from poverty into prosperity – the conservative KNOWS this is possible.) And the conservative believes that if you want prosperity, or a good job, or a good education, you can make it happen – but you have to work hard.
The conservative hopes and intends that the free markets bring you all of the affordable and positive opportunities and resources that you need. The conservative also knows that on the other side of that hard work is great reward – material and, more importantly, emotional, spiritual and mental.
The conservative understands that not only is it a waste of time to try to control you, it’s actually impossible. Humans were born to be free. And if we put a roadblock in front of you, you’ll find another way around it. So we see attempts at control as a waste of resources, energy and time at best, and at worst, creating detrimental results that serve to hinder people’s upward mobility or teach dependence. We see much more efficiency, as well as endless opportunity, in leaving you to your own devices. And we want the same in return.
This is where modern democrats misview conservatives as heartless. But really, the conservative believes that there is one and one path only to sustainable success and independence – and that is self-empowerment. All other avenues – welfare, affirmative action, housing loans you can’t actually afford – ultimately risk doing a disservice to people, as they teach dependence on special circumstances, the govt, or arbitrary assistance (that can disappear tomorrow). And the real danger – they will ALWAYS backfire, and leave the recipient in equally or more dire circumstances. Any false improvement will always expire.
The conservative believes in abundance. The liberal believes in scarcity.
The conservative believes man is born free and will be who he is, no matter what arbitrary limitations or rules are put on him. The leftist believes man is perfectible, and by extension, believes a society at large is perfectible, and command and control is justified in the quest to a “perfect” utopian society. (Sounds familiar!)
The conservative tends to be more faithful – and not necessarily in God, but in the ability of the individual to find great strength in himself (or from his God) to get what he needs and to be successful. Therefore the conservative has an outlet for his fear and disappointment – trust and faith in something bigger.
The leftist believes the system must be perfected in order to enable success. Therefore disappointment is channeled as anger and blame at the system. Voids are left to be filled by faith in the govt, which they surely then want to come in and “fix” things.
And therein lie the roots of love and fear respectively. For the conservative, when life presents great struggles, he knows he has the power to surmount them. Happiness stems from internal strength and perseverance. For the modern leftist, when life presents great struggles, the system failed, therefore they were at the mercy of a faulty system, and they believe that only when the system is fixed can their life improve. Happiness is built on systemic contingencies, which they will then seek to control or expect someone else to.
One blames himself. The other blames anyone and everyone but himself.
And there it is. There’s where the meanness comes from. The leftist ideology causes that person to cast anger at the world when things go wrong or appear “unfair.” He constantly chooses only to see the “injustices” – and that makes for a very miserable, mean, blame-casting existence.
One last point that we have seen over and over and over with many (not all) of our leftist friends: Extreme stinginess and cheapness.
In our conservative community growing up, we were always taught that you give when people are in need – make donations to the Red Cross when there’s an earthquake, donate to charity when you can afford it, etc. Even if it’s just $50 here and there – it’s the right thing to do. Conservatives see this as the responsibility that comes with gaining from the capitalistic system; if you happen to benefit greatly from the system, it’s your duty to give back.
The liberal, on the other hand, does not seem to share this same viewpoint, at least not in my experience. They perhaps think this is linked to believing in scarcity, and that your dollar comes at the cost of mine. So it seems that liberals, on some level of consciousness, feel guilty about not being voluntarily charitable. Therefore, to write off their guilt, they outsource their “generosity” to the government by voting for wealth re-distributive policies. Thus, the liberal cheats himself of the joy and addictiveness of direct generosity. (Not to mention – redistributive policies ALWAYS end up disempowering those who they’re meant to help.)
We think the Treehouse is a good armory for those who are doing long distance walking for the sake of our nation. We hope you’ll think so, too. Find yourself a good branch….or just pull up a rock to the campfire.
Posted Originally on the Conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 123 Comments
ABC/IPSOS are trying hard, very hard, to provide cover for Joe Biden. [IPSOS Release Here – pdf data Here] However, even within what they call a “probability-based sample of pre-selected” Americans, aka “the knowledge panel“, the responses toward Joe Biden show a nationwide rejection of the White House occupant.
A heavily weighted sample of 28% support Biden’s efforts on inflation. The rest of their pre-selected panel say he sucks.
Another weighted sample shows 36% think Biden is doing a good job on crime. The rest of their pre-selected panel say no, Biden sucks.
(Via ABC) President Joe Biden is facing significant skepticism from the American public, with his job approval rating lagging across a range of major issues, including new lows for his handling of crime, gun violence and the economic recovery, a new ABC/Ipsos poll finds.
[…] More than two-thirds of Americans (69%) disapprove of how Biden is handling inflation (only 28% approve) while more than half (57%) disapprove of his handling of the economic recovery.
[T]he survey also reveals weaknesses from Biden’s own party with only a slim majority of Democrats (54%) approving. Biden’s orbit is also hemorrhaging independent voters, with 71% disapproving of his handling of inflation.
[…] As the national murder rates see historic jumps, only a little more than 1 in 3 Americans (36%) approve of Biden’s handling of crime, down from 43% in an ABC News/Ipsos poll in late October. (read more)
The White House strategy to deny chaos created by their policies, and yet demanding that media report good things about Main Street collapsing, does not seem to be working. Apparently, an overwhelming majority of Americans now believe what they see and feel for themselves.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 359 Comments
It was always Chris Wallace’s job to protect the DC interests by tamping down any sunlight upon corrupt UniParty politics. That’s the reason why CTH called Wallace the deep swamp ‘gatekeeper‘ for a decade.
Wallace, the top player amid many such players at Fox News, was always a narrative platform provider to distribute media points that supported the institutional administrative state in DC. However, thanks to the rise of pragmatic conservatism, a movement created by Donald Trump and commonly identified as MAGA, in recent years more people have caught on to how this insufferable media game is played.
Chris Wallace was increasingly becoming naked to his audience, and as a direct outcome, increasingly useless for propaganda distribution. Today, the functionally obsolescent gatekeeper announced, effective immediately, he was leaving Fox News. Moments later, CNN announced Chris Wallace was joining them. In essence, Wallace moves from controlled opposition to direct opposition. WATCH:
Wallace was not the first departure. The increased public awareness of the manipulative construct that is Fox News (writ large) is the same reason why Steve Hayes and Jonah Goldberg were released. That is also the same motive for Fox hiring Dan Bongino.
Although it is yet to be announced, the Fox News contracts for Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham also will not be renewed after their current terms expire. With more people finding more places where genuine source material facts are cited with sunlight, the ability for controlled opposition pundits to thrive is demonstrably lessened.
Traditional cable news is modifying itself accordingly with subscription based services.
If you want to avoid uncomfortable truth, if you want to be fed propaganda, if you want to get talking points just to support your skewed and ideologically flawed world view, and if you want to avoid confronting your own preconceptions, the subscriber services from both Fox News and CNN will now provide the direct injection of propaganda and misinformation you need to retain the status quo. This is the new business model for cable news platforms.
An entirely new media infrastructure has assembled outside the influence of corporations. Understanding current events, real news and information based on fact, is no longer dependent on corporations. Independent researchers and information providers are giving the raw material citations directly to audiences on a variety of platforms.
In the bigger picture, these are the consequences from identifying “fake news” publicly, and yes, we can thank Donald J. Trump for that. This is the biggest gift that Donald Trump created outside of his America First political agenda. Donald J. Trump was/is a walking red pill; a “touchstone”: a visible, empirical test or criterion for determining the quality or genuineness of anything political.
Without Trump, the business models of CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and the alphabet broadcasters would never have collapsed as quickly. He alone accomplished that.
New Zealand plans to make the tobacco industry obsolete among future generations. Associate Health Minister Dr. Ayesha Verrall announced plans to pass the Smokefree Aotearoa 2025 Action Plan, with the goal of eliminating tobacco in the country in the next four years. As a result, cigarette companies will be prohibited from advertising in New Zealand. When the law goes into effect, teenagers under the age of 14 will never have the ability to purchase legal tobacco in their lifetimes. In addition, the majority of controversial flavored e-cigarettes aside from mint, menthol, and tobacco were banned in August as they are said to appeal to the youth.
The government is also taking measures to help older generations quit by gradually reducing nicotine content in cigarettes and removing filters. Currently, 8,000 retailers have the ability to sell tobacco products in the nation, but that will be reduced to only 500 locations. In four years, the only cigarettes available will contain a very low level of nicotine before they are phased out completely.
Verrall claims the move will save New Zealand $5 billion in healthcare costs. According to estimates, the average smoker in New Zealand spends $238 per week on cigarettes, amounting to $12,400 annually. The move will make New Zealand’s tobacco industry the most restricted in the world, behind Bhutan where cigarette products are prohibited entirely. However, tobacco sales compose around 40% of total convenience retail revenue in the nation. Opponents say that prohibition has never worked, and the ban will lead to an unregulated black market. Small dairies (i.e., grocery stores) are upset over the law as it will deplete much of their revenue, and the government has said it will not step in to bail out businesses affected by the mandate.
While everyone still argues over the virus and which lab did what, they seem to gloss over the real question — Is this a diversion to hide the true motive? This is why nobody in the Biden Administration will ever investigate Fauci. There is plenty to warrant an investigation, but it might uncover something much larger.
Dr. Peter McCullough, a top cardiologist in his field, has warned that myocarditis due to the vaccine is “way more serious” than myocarditis contracted from the virus itself. Myocarditis, or heart muscle inflammation, is a side effect of both COVID and the mRNA vaccine. The difference is that the ailment produced by the natural infection tends to elevate troponin levels, according to Dr. McCullough, which is a protein found in cardiac and skeletal muscle. “[T]he myocarditis in COVID-19 is mild, it’s inconsequential, and it’s largely a component of election [of troponin].”
In contrast, contracting the ailment through the vaccine may cause lipid nanoparticles to go directly to the heart, the doctor stated. “The heart expresses the spike protein, the body attacks the heart. There are dramatic EKG changes. I don’t want anybody to think that the myocarditis of a natural infection is anything like what we’re seeing with the vaccines,” the top cardiologist warned.
Dr. McCullough said the heart injury due to the vaccine is around 10-100 times higher than the troponin seen in natural infection. Worsening matters, the doctor states that when kids develop myocarditis after the vaccine, 90% require immediate hospitalization to prevent heart failure. “Vaccine-induced myocarditis is a big deal, and in children, it’s way more serious and more prominent than a post-COVID myocarditis.”
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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