Yemen is the largest humanitarian crisis that no one discusses. As I mentioned: “People are not driving around with “We Stand With Yemen” bumper stickers, and schools are not requiring children to make sense of this war. The public does not discuss or shed tears for the people of Yemen who live in unfathomable conditions because they are not a piece of the larger agenda and no one can profit off of their suffering at this time.”
It appears that Saudi Arabia and Qatar feel similar sentiments. “The humanitarian suffering that we have seen in Ukraine, and everyone is talking about it right now… has been the suffering of a lot of countries in this region for years and nothing happened,” Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani stated. “We have never seen a global response to address those sufferings.”
He went on to note the forgotten people suffering in Syria, Palestine, Afghanistan, and Libya. Countless people, in the hundreds of thousands, have been killed from these seemingly endless conflicts and millions have been displaced – forgotten and discarded by the West.
Ukraine’s Zelensky has criticized Russia for helping Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad to secure power in 2015. Russia did in fact help fight the Islamic State group and pushed them out of areas of Iraq and Syria. Putin has called on people from the Middle East to provide backup. “If you see that there are people who want of their own accord — not for money — to come to help … then we need to give them what they want and help them get to the conflict zone,” Putin told Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu at a security council meeting in Moscow.
Considering the dire economic situation for countless individuals across numerous Middle Eastern nations, the prospect of having a stable income is a deal many men cannot refuse. Yet, in addition to the money, the lack of Western support for these nations has caused a sense of resentment toward Ukraine and its Western allies. Putin postured himself as an ally many years ago.
While the news is spinning this as Russia is losing for they are now negotiating, there is a lot more going on behind the curtain than people suspect – this will be a true TEST of international law. Indeed, Russia has promised to drastically scale down its military operations around Kyiv and the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv given Ukraine’s proposed neutral status with international guarantees. This will turn on the guarantee that Ukraine will not only remain out of NATO but will also no longer host bases of foreign troops. This will be under the original security guarantee in terms similar to “Article 5”, the collective defense clause of NATO. The proposal will be that this guarantee will be secured by NATO members Canada, Poland, and Turkey.
In addition, Ukraine will agree to a 15-year consultation period on the status of Russian-annexed Crimea upon a complete ceasefire. These proposals are being submitted to President Vladimir Putin. The Donbas is on the table for that must be settled to end the civil war which the US has been covertly funding against Russia thanks to the US Neocons.
While it appears based on our computer that some decision will come perhaps the week of April 18th, the real test will be something even far more important. Can the powers that be get our insane leader of the Free World, Joe Biden, to terminate all sanctions against Russians? If there is a peace settlement, then the White House should rescind all sanctions. That should include those put on by Obama back in 2014 because of Crimea. If that is NOT done, then there is no way to restore the world economy nor to aid the reduction of inflation. As long as sanctions remain in place, peace or no peace in Ukraine will mean nothing going forward.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 29, 2022
Col Douglas Macgregor appears for an interview with Dave Smith on his “Part Of The Problem” podcast. Col Macgregor gives his status update on the Ukraine and Russian military along with some excellent background information on the U.S. cultural issues which are driving the U.S. position.
Additionally, Macgregor overlays the economic battle both domestically and geopolitically with the currency war and talks about economic repercussions for the U.S., NATO countries, Ukraine and Russia. As noted by Macgregor when the Biden administration turned favorably toward Iran the Saudis immediately realized it was in their best interest to withdraw strategic support for the U.S.
It’s a good interview that goes into much more depth than the average media appearance, and permits discussion of multiple facets of the conflict in/around Ukraine. The video is prompted to begin at 17:34 when the Ukraine discussion begins. WATCH:
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 29, 2022
And there it is….. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered a public broadcast urging the allied western nations to quickly adopt “green energy” policies which he says will undermine the influence of Russia in Europe. If you’ve been following events, this demand is yet another big puzzle piece coming together. {Go Deep 1, Go Deep 2, and Go Deep 3)
The Recount has the video HERE. I cannot locate the shareable video on any other tech platform, which, given the importance, is not surprising. I doubt any govt in the western world wants to have the dots connected.
In the video Zelenskyy urges the NATO alliance, specifically western Europe, to quickly adopt the Build Back Better climate change agenda as it helps his country. He advocates for “green energy” as a top priority so that alliance members are not reliant on Russian energy sales.
If it seems a little odd that a president, in the middle of a war zone, would be advocating for the climate change agenda, you are not seeing the big picture. Ukraine is a crisis that cannot be wasted. The Green New Deal, Build Back Better, and western nation climate change agenda is far more important than a single proxy war nation. Ukraine is a tool in the bigger agenda, nothing more.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is controlled by the western alliance, NATO, Dept of State, CIA and western allied intelligence. This is part of the reason why Russia took action in the first place. Zelenskyy has a role to play and pushing the Build Back Better (WEF) agenda, while the opportunity exists, is all part of the organized global cleaving.
Two fractured geopolitical groups globally.
The green energy group (economic globalists), and the fossil fuel group (economic nationalists).
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy pushes for Europe to transition to “green energy”:
“Russia’s aggression against Ukraine … is an argument to accelerate green transformation on the continent. Europe must give up Russian oil, give up as soon as possible!” pic.twitter.com/5YFs8VdRm5
Behind the G7 and NATO, we know the multinational corporations assembled in the World Economic Forum are ultimately the driver of political policy. The central bankers, finance ministers and politicians all operate under the guidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) and World Trade Organization (WTO).
Together, the WEF, IMF, WB, WTO, EU central banks and U.S. federal reserve, collectively represent what we call the globalists. And the globalists are pushing the climate change agenda hard {WEF LINK}.
It is always important to remember the ultimate goal of the ‘climate change’ promoters is not an energy system that changes the global climate. The goal of the ‘climate change’ group is to create a carbon trading system; a new financial mechanism (a global tax program) to control human activity on a world-wide basis. This system also needs a digital identity in order to work.
As a consequence, when we look at the fracturing of the global energy marketplace, it is worth viewing the divided group through the prism of the globalist carbon trading scheme.
Two world groupings. One group, oil-based energy (traditional) – let’s label them the RED GROUP (grey on map below), and one group GREEN energy (the build back better plan, yellow on map below). It is not accidental these two groups hold similar internal geopolitical views and perspectives, hence, their alignment with the sanctions against Russia.
♦ The important part to see is… if this cleaving continues, there are going to be two sets of nations with two structurally different economies. A red group and a green group.
The Green group is going to be at a strong disadvantage, at least for a generation or two, as the costs associated with the production of goods and systems is going to be much more expensive to operate, as the transition into Build Back Better sustainable or renewable energy takes place.
However, this is where the strategery comes in. If they can control the world effort globally, the GREEN GROUP may be able to offset their operational costs with a global tax against the RED GROUP. That’s what yesterday’s G7 announcement was really about {GO DEEP}
This geopolitical contest is for all the marbles folks.
The opportunity to use disposable Joe Biden is the globalists once in a lifetime chance….
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 26, 2022
In his weekly monologue [Transcript HERE], Neil Oliver takes the stories we have outlined on these pages over the past week and weaves them into a comprehensive context. Once you see the manipulation and lies from government, you can never unsee them.
However, the opposite is also true; once you see the truth, you can never not see it – and that sets up a very specific situation. Once you know the truth about a series of events or issues, you can easily see the people who pretend not to know it.
I think the reason I like Oliver is because he uses metaphors and analogies in his monologues to connect issues to a picture of what they really mean. I try to do the same in writing. Oliver takes the recent information and shows how it is all connected. From COVID madness to the western govt lies, that drive us toward war with Russia, it’s all connected; and we can see it. WATCH:
[Transcript] – “If you didn’t laugh, you’d cry – so sometimes the only thing to do is laugh. These are difficult times, made more difficult by the manufactured fear and lies we are force fed around the clock.
There are issues that must be addressed with the utmost seriousness. But, as I say, sometimes you just have to laugh.
The way our leaders and their attendants are going about things – not just recently but for months and years now – reminds me of the behaviour of very young children, toddlers really. Sometimes a toddler will screw his eyes shut in the belief that since he can’t see you, it must follow that you can’t see him.
If our leaders weren’t applying this strategy in times where decisions make the difference between life and death, their antics would only be hilarious.
Peek-a-boo, presidents and prime ministers.
They spent two years on lockdowns – spraying money around like white foam in an ‘90s nightclub – all the while lavishing multi-million-pound contracts on friends and acquaintances, thinking we wouldn’t notice all the new millionaires, generating unimaginable, unthinkable mountains of radioactive debt that will be glowing red hot for generations to come. We saw you.
They ignored the alarm calls from all manner of reasonable people – from economists of the highest professional standing to just members of the public armed with no more than the experience of running their own households and bank accounts – and piled the debt mountains higher and higher. Some of us told them it was a disaster waiting to happen, and they told us we were cranks and conspiracy theorists who didn’t understand how money and economies work.
And what are they doing now? In the short term, they are attempting to launder the consequences of their lockdown idiocy through the tragedy in Ukraine. A shameful sleight of hand. The spiking cost of energy, inflation, the threat of shortages of food and all manner of necessities – apparently had nothing to do with the financial incontinence of the past two years, nothing at all to do with shutting down economies around the developed world. All of it, we are supposed to accept, now, is down to Putin’s hellish invasion of Ukraine.
Like that toddler screwing his eyes shut to make the approaching adult disappear, our leaders seem genuinely to think we can’t see them, can’t see what they’re doing, all that they’ve done these years past. Either that, of course, or they just don’t care that we can see them, because our seeing and knowing no longer matters – not when they think they’ve got us where they want us.
If you didn’t laugh, you might cry.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s wife, Akshata Murthy, is a shareholder in her billionaire father’s IT and consultancy business Infosys, with a personal stake worth hundreds of millions of pounds. Infosys continues to do business in Moscow.
In the past two years alone the chancellor’s wife has apparently been enriched by nearly 12 million pounds of dividends from Infosys.
Mr Sunak has urged businesses to sever their ties to Russia – the better to strangle Mr Putin’s ability to wage war. This advice apparently does not apply to people in Mr Sunak’s own home. Exactly how stupid, and/or blind, does Mr Sunak think we are?
Mr Sunak is also among those of our leaders and senior politicians on both sides of the House of Commons who either genuinely do not know what a woman is – which is to say, an adult human female – or else cannot bring themselves to say as much when asked to define a woman. Here’s a starter for ten: if you’re a living human being, you were grown inside a woman.
This inability or self-preserving refusal to stand up with and for women – a little over half the population of the country – would be laughable, hilarious if it didn’t have tragic consequences, leading as it does to the erasure of women as the living, breathing reality that they are.
For me it’s increasingly hard to avoid drawing the conclusion that our leaders and their little wizards are laughing at us. I say it is high time we pointed out that they are the joke.
Remember when they said the Covid vaccines were a hundred per cent effective at stopping a person catching Covid, spreading Covid? Remember when they said those vaccines were absolutely safe for everyone from toddlers to centenarians? Remember when they said we had to wear masks when standing and walking inside a restaurant, but not when seated? Remember when they said we had to keep our distance from each other, even from loved ones?
Now we can take refugees of war into our homes. This is a fine and noble act, of course it is, but why could we not invite our loved ones into our homes then, if it is safe to welcome strangers from thousands of miles away now? A person might be tempted to think it was a fiction all along, a nonsense circulated to make us behave.
That question is, anyway, redundant, because Covid no longer matters, apparently. Not as far as I can see. Covid is yesterday’s cause of fear, and therefore no longer required – not now that there’s a war on. It seems safe to predict that once the war is over, the next thing to fear, and for which sacrifices will have to be made upon the public altar, will be along as promptly as an efficiently run bus. My money’s on Lockdown for the Climate. The outriders for that stunt are already there, of course, with yet more calls to work from home rather than driving into work, and leaving the car parked all day Sunday – for the good of the planet.
War in Ukraine is not the only cause of the mess we’re in, but it will bite us all soon enough. I can tell you something to fear soon, and that may already be unavoidable, and that’s a shortage of food, if not for us then for millions of others. Russia and Ukraine grow 30 percent of the world’s wheat and 20 percent of the world’s corn.
Developing countries already face shortages on account of sanctions. The developed world might have tried to compensate for the short fall – grown more food elsewhere – except for the double whammy provided by the West’s dependence on Russia as a key source of fertilizer. Western sanctions on Russia’s exports of potash, ammonia and urea, along with other nutrients needed for fertile soil, threatens the growth of wheat, corn, rice and soy around the world.
The price of fertilizer is spiking. Fewer fields may be planted, meaning smaller harvests. And that’s on top of the dizzying hikes in the price of diesel. By the other end of the year, farmers may not even be able to afford the fuel necessary to bring in their crops. As the cost of commodities continues to rise in the months ahead, as hunger bites, there can only be more unrest and suffering to come.
Of course, those comedians running our country insist we don’t need carbon fuels anymore, anyway – all that filthy, dirty gas and oil. And yet European countries have bought 19 billion dollars’ worth of Russian oil and gas since the 24th of February alone. We see you. Out of one side of their faces they talk about the need for sanctions to throttle Mr Putin and his henchmen, the need for us all to make sacrifices. Out of the other side of their faces they say, “Thank you, kindly, Mr Putin, for keeping the lights on.”
The upshot of it all is that Mr Putin’s war is paying for itself. He’s even demanding the bills be paid in Russian Roubles instead of American Dollars. Other currencies are on the rise for dealing in crude oil, so that the sun may be setting on the petro-dollar after all this time.
There’s tragic comedy all over the place. Once you see it, as they say, you can’t not see it.
Klaus Schwab and his World Economic Forum talk about happy plebs owning nothing – while the richest of the rich hoover up everything of value in the world. I think I know who’s planning to be happiest. They plan to take away our money as well and replace it with food stamps – what they call Central Bank Digital Currency. Once that’s in place, it’s up to the banks what you spend, when you spend, what you spend it on, and where. If the bank has reason to think you shouldn’t buy that bottle of wine, or book that train ticket, then you won’t be able to.
Then there’s the little things, like French president Emmanuel Macron.
Ukrainian president Volodimyr Zelensky appeared on tv in a workman-like green t-shirt and khakis and, quick as flash, Mr Macron had shed his bespoke suits and sent someone to buy some jeans and a hoodie from the boy’s section of his local haberdashery. Then he had a photographer follow him around at work all day, looking butch and mean. Such antics, such pantomime designed to attract attention to self, while real women and real children are dying, is nothing less than pitiful.
Misinformation and manipulation of the truth has been going on for years now. In 2016 the Clinton campaign said Donald Trump had colluded with Russia in order to secure his election.
The FBI duly investigated and found nothing – and yet the story of Mr Trump buddying up to the Russians persisted throughout his presidency courtesy of the Democrat-fawning MSM in the States. This week, Mr Trump announced he was taking legal action against the Clintons and their allies.
Before the 2020 election the NY Post broke the story about Hunter Biden’s laptop – the one left in a Delaware repair shop allegedly containing emails linking Biden junior to bungs of money from a Shanghai-based company linked to China. It’s claimed there was mention of 10 percent of the profits for, “the big guy”. Hunter was already in receipt of 50k dollars a month from a Ukrainian energy company for doing … well no one is quite sure what Hunter was doing.
And what did the compliant US media do? They rubbished the report. Big Tech shut down the NY Post’s Twitter account and banned anyone from sharing the story. More than 50 US security “experts” stood up to say it was all Russian disinformation.
And guess what – the story about Hunter’s laptop and those emails? Last week the NY Times admitted the emails had been verified.
The technocrats of Silicon Valley just didn’t think American voters should know such things in the run up to an election that their man Joe Biden simply had to win. They call such tactics the Noble Lie. They’re lying, but it’s for our own good. But as I say, once you see it, you can’t not see it.
The truth came out about how Trump had not colluded with the Russians. The truth came out about Hunter Biden’s laptop. The truth came out about the Wuhan lab leak. The truth is coming out about vaccine safety and efficacy.
What are they telling us this week, that will be overtaken by the truth, sooner or later?
The truth seems to be moving faster and faster.
As I say, if you didn’t laugh at their audacity – at their seeming conviction that we can’t see them – you’d have to cry.
So laugh, I say, but pay attention to the truth. There’s more truth every day. And the truth, as they say, will set us free. (LINK)
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 26, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin has long accused NATO and the collective west of trying to interfere in the nations of their adversaries. Using the recent examples of Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran and Syria, specifically Putin has said the United States wants to overthrow the elected leader of Russia.
Until today the western governments have denied this allegation. However, in his rambling and inarticulate speech in Poland today Joe Biden stated of Vladimir Putin “for God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,” a direct call for the regime change the same Biden administration has denied.
Expect a clean-up effort in 3,… 2,… WATCH:
Overall, it was clear the people behind the Biden administration were attempting to use the background of a grand speech in Poland to reset the failing administration of Joe Biden. However, they failed miserably. [Transcript forthcoming]
It was yet another “democracy -vs- autocracy” narrative effort by the people trying to prop up Joe Biden.
There's that damned term again "the fight between democracy and autocracy."
Everyone needs to be prepared to shove two years of dictatorial fiats (vis a vis COVID Rules) back in the faces of those who attempt to use this argument. https://t.co/SNwvLflZoC
These talking points are jaw-dropping hypocrisy. After using dictatorial power for two years to crush citizens of their nations under the auspices of COVID mitigation, western leaders cannot now grab the lantern of liberty and decry an authoritarianism they embraced. https://t.co/aEXJkyc4MO
The same western "global order" that weaponized COVID mitigation through unilateral decree and fiat.
The Biden autocracy that mandated vaccinations without any use of representative democracy, or people's voice for authority. That one, @brhodes ? https://t.co/QbzlDv5Sef
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 26, 2022
Current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is a Davos/WEF devotee of the highest magnitude. Yellen is ensconced in the worldview of those who run the operations of central banking and global finance. She is the globalist secretary of world treasuries and has been throughout her professional life.
As more people become aware of the Build Back Better agenda, or as some would say “The Great Reset,” and its direct connection to the dreams and aspirations of the climate change ideologues in the elitist class, it is worth paying attention when Yellen says nothing will deter the Biden administration from eliminating fossil fuels; and it is her role to make that objective financially possible.
Yellen emphasizes the Biden administration position about how the conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia are an example of why the global energy resources need to fundamentally change to renewable resources. Her strength of advocacy, in alignment with the Davos/WEF position, is yet another data-point to highlight the predictable cleaving of the world economies into two distinctly differing groups of nations. WATCH:
It doesn’t matter how economically painful it is to chase these energy policies, the elitists who operate western government are all-in on the same program. The same western governments who used totalitarian emergency powers to destroy liberty and freedom under the guise of COVID-19 mitigation, are the same western governments now aligned to use the crisis in Ukraine to advance their energy ideology.
QUESTION: Marty; I remember when the Chinese central bank said they were using capital flow analysis which is your model. You said China should buy US debt directly from the Treasury and not the NY bankers. They did that in a matter of weeks. So when they say they are on the right side of history, are they talking about your model forecasting they will replace the US as the financial capital of the world?
NH
ANSWER: You have to understand that Asians believe in cycles. They are part of their religion. Richard E. Nesbett wrote an interesting book entitled “The Geography of Thought, How Asians and Westerners Think Differently … and why.” He attributed his work to a Chinese student who said, “You know, the difference between you and me is that I think the world is a Circle, and you think it’s a line.” He goes on to quote him:
“The Chinese believe in constant change, but with things always moving back to some prior state. They pay attention to wide range of events; they search for relationships between things; and they think you can’t understand the part without understanding the whole. Westerners live in a simpler, more deterministic world; they focus on salient objects or people instead of the larger picture; and they think they can control events because they know the rules that govern the behavior of objects.”
In my 40 years of dealing with governments, I NEVER had to explain cyclical theory in Asia – only to American & European who do think always on a linear basis. They apply this to analysis like climate change. The temperature has risen say 5 degrees on years and they project that out and say we will all die in 7 years. NEVER does the West ever forecast cyclically – it is always linearly.
China understand cycles – we do not. They understand the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city states. They understand that Communism failed for it tried to defeat human nature. They see the future cyclically and that is what they are saying that they will be on the right side of history. They know the West is crumbing from within. The time that the US hands that title to China is upon the doorstep. The West has done nothing but try to force their ideas upon everyone abandoning freedom and they have introduced the cancelation culture. We have lost all the values that made America great. It is time for Europe and American to die the same way all empires die, by their own hand of suicide.
China being on the “right side of history” means they know the United States is declining and they will step into the void. They can “feel” it with or without my models.
While the Neocon strategy of DEMONIZING an adversary as they have done to Putin, the very same strategy was used to get people to absolutely hate Donald Trump. The more someone hates Trump still, the more susceptible they are to simple techniques of mind manipulation. This has led many to cheer for the Ukrainians to defeat Russians and we have the White House calling Putin a War Criminal when you could say the same thing about the US leaders that started the endless saga of wars on false pretenses or took out civils with drones when they wrongly thought they were terrorists.
The White House appears to be under the influence of the Neocons who just always advocate war. Make no mistake about it, these Neocons are not confined to just the Democrats or Republicans. They share a love for war and the hatred of everyone they perceive to be an enemy. It’s tempting to think that Putin will suffer a defeat and democracy could revive in Russia, but a more likely scenario is total world chaos. Russia is also comprised of Muslims who number about 14 million or roughly 10% of the total population. Then there are different cultures and you will see internal chaos and separatist movements armed with nukes.
Putin is not a fool and he is actually honoring his word. He is not trying to conquer Ukraine. His column of tanks had stopped as a show of force and intimidation. He has not ordered just total annihilation. The US strategy is we go in and flatten everything targeting water and power grid. Put took the power station but did not turn off the power. The West portrays this as Putin is stalled and the Ukrainians could defeat the Russians. But this seems to be propaganda all designed to wear down the moral of the Russian troops and sway public opinion for Ukraine.
While the press also portrays that Putin’s nation has now been subjected to an isolation greater than any nation has ever experienced by any major power in history, it was US sanctions to cut off the fuel to Japan that caused them to attack Pearl Harbor. There were later even Congressional investigations into FDR and did he deliberately try to create a situation to get the USA into World War II. Congress simply said the allegations were inconclusive.
Since late February, Russia has been hit with punishing economic, trade and financial sanctions. Putin struck back and said all energy sales to unfriendly nations will now be in Rubles. Saudi Arabia also agreed with China to sell oil in Yuan. These are historically critical events that have torn the world economy asunder. There will NEVER BE A RETURN TO NORMAL.
So while the Western Press cheers and reports that Russia is careering toward a debt default, they forget that the default will be on the West. A very rapid technological decoupling is also underway dividing the world economy and that will threaten free trade and the end of economic growth. Indeed, US GDP Growth rate peaked in real terms.
The mass withdrawal of American firms from Russia will have a profoundly negative impact moving forward and the world economy is shrinking rapidly. Russia isn’t some weak power like Iraq. Russia is a major power whose population was, until recently, deeply connected to its larger global environment. The White House thinks that Russians will blame Putin rather than Biden. Eastern European states like Serbia and in the Middle East are looking at the United States as the problem being arrogant and interfering in everyone else’s affairs. It is without question that the United States has declare war on Russia. This is how World War II began with countries attacking one another in the financial markets.
So while the Neocons lick their lips at the thought of overturning Putin and controlling Russia before they turn on China, they are clearly not looking long-term. They took out Saddam Hussein who kept the religious zealots in their place. Once he was removed, the Middle East saw the rise of ISIS. The US has been covertly funding the Ukrainian Nazis to keep up their fight against Donbass.
Let us may no mistake here. The Neocons pushed and funded through the CIS the Taliban for then they were the anti-Soviet resistance. The CIA Special Activities Division sent paramilitary officers to equip the Mujihadeen forces against the Soviet Army. The US therefore funded Taliban mainly to assist in ending the Soviet’s occupation in Afghanistan. However, the Neocons can never think past the end of their nose. They have no long-term strategies, only win what is immediately in front of them. The taliban benefited from expanded foreign military support from the United States. They then used that training against US troops who were in search of terrorists from 911.
The foolish view among the Neocons is they think bringing Democracy to the Middle East or now to Russia and China will somehow make them friends or stable is an absolute joke. The idea of creating a “Moscow Spring” by punishing the Russian people until they do what the CIS and Neocons demand does not make the costs of conflict lead worth it. Marx brought his ideas and it cost over 200 million lives to install communism. America is hated for its interference by the Neocons in many circles.
Both China and Russia have American arrogance as a common enemy and the Russian or Chinese people will not send them flowers and Xmas cards thanking them for destroy everything they have built since 1989. However, RELIABLE sources in the Middle East, the UAE, Egypt and even Israel are angry over Biden’s sanctions. Yet the Neocons claim that total isolation forced regime change in South Africa. However, they also had no military power to fight back. That is like claiming a fight is fair with one kid has a rubber band and the other a baseball bat.
Somebody in Washington needs to start thinking strategically and realistically about this endeavor to isolate Russia for all that is unfolding at a rapid rate is the disintegration of the world economy. In 1989, then President George H.W. Bush understood there were serious risks with the collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism. Russia is big and powerful enough that its role in the world economy is vital to the overall health of the international order . The US NEEDS Russia as an economic friend not and adversary for nobody will win with that result.
The Western propaganda is that Russia and China represent authoritarian rule. However, Western governments are no better. Sure, we have elections but then the candidate arrives in Washington and they are told they will vote according to the Party Agenda rendering the image of free elections only just that. In Europe, the people do not vote for the Commission which makes the laws nor for the head of state. We do not live in a Democracy for the people never are allowed to vote on an issue like war or peace.
The likelihood of Putin being overthrown and Democracy is sudden born has less than a zero change of ever being correct.
The outrageous sanctions imposed by Biden on Russia has undermined the entire world economy. Sanctions have never worked and this time they were designed to try to hurt the Russian people so profoundly that they would overthrow Putin. The Ukrainians are even naming Alexander Bortnikov, the Russian Director of the Federal Security Service and a member of Putin’s inner circle, as a successor to the president. Bortnikov has come out and said that Stalin’s Great Purge was necessary whereas Putin rejected Lenin. Be careful what you wish for, as they say.
Stickers are showing up plastered all over gasoline pumps throughout the USA despite Biden trying to blame Putin for his the disruption to the world economy. The US had no national security issue at risk with either Crimea nor DonBass. The Neocons just hate Putin and have used Ukraine as a proxy war toy to get at Putin. Even in Poland the government is pushing for war. Europe desperately needs war for 8.6 years of NEGATIVE interest rates has wiped out pension funds. NY banks will no longer lend against European sovereign debt. They cannot fund the governments any longer and the central bank cannot buy their debt endlessly. The only solution that they see is to default under the pretense of the Great Reset so they NEED war as the diversion with a new Bretton Woods.
But Biden’s sanctions have gone far beyond just energy. Nickel is a vital for it is the largest component in stainless steel production. Alloy steel is also called special steel. Nickel can increase the strength of the alloy and maintain its good plasticity and toughness. Then nickel is also used in the field of batteries, mainly nickel-hydrogen batteries, chromium-nickel batteries, and nickel-manganese batteries. Lastly, very fine nickel powder is often used as a catalyst in the chemical industry. Hence, nickel is vital and it goes beyond just the coins in your pocket which at these prices will be worth more in metal content soon enough.
Yet these sanctions that Biden swore would target only Russia, have disrupted the entire world and not just energy. Tsingshan Holding Group is a major producer of Nickel and it sold hedging position forward to secure its production. But prices doubled thanks to Biden and Tsingshan tried to buy back its hedging positions and that has set off a collapse of the Nickel market in London. Nickel was already breaking out thanks to COVID restrictions. Then the Biden Russian sanctions were insane and you can see the drastic price rally as Tsingshan tried to buy back its hedge.
Nickel prices began to soar after Biden’s sanction on Russia. The rally became a crisis for the LME as producers such as Tsingshan’s brokers desperately tried to buy those nickel contracts back causing a near 70% rise in a single session to stem losses and avoid escalating margin calls. The trading became erradic as brokers kept trying to cover short hedged positions. Hedge funds and other participants were frantically buying nickel, which only propelled the market even higher. Nickel prices had more than doubled reaching more than $100,000 a metric ton.
The LME was sent into crisis. Several smaller brokers were saying they would default at the 9 a.m. margin call if prices stayed at those levels. The LME was forced to suspend the market shortly after 8 a.m. local time or suffer a catastropiuc collapse of the exchange. The brokers could not meet the expected margin calls. Thus, the LME adopted the drastic step of canceling trades that took place before the suspension. They is said to have wiped out $3.9 billion in transactions. Of course, the hedge funds were furious for they were looking a huge unrealized profits. Because of the sudden price shock, the LME had no choice but to suspend trading in hopes that the brokers would collect the funds from their clients. However, the decision to wipe out trades that took place in a free market in good faith is really unprecedented and has shaken the confidence in free markets.
It may be true that the suspension and the canceled trades to settle the catastrophic damage to the free markets created by the Biden sanctions has prevented a near-term collapse of the LME. However, failing to do so may have brought down the entire exchange ending the market where producers can hedge forward.
Tsingshan still owes its brokers, which included JPMorgan, Standard Chartered and BNP as well as a unit of state-owned China Construction Bank Corp. The demand for cash to settle margin calls for a hedger who has sold future production presents a serious crisis. There are serious questions being raised if the price seen in this spike truly reflects the shortage in the supply or just an aberition created by a short-term panic.
Ironically, it was the great expanse of China’s economy which drove Nickel to $54200 a metric ton back in 2007. Nevertheless, where our computer has been bullish on Nickel and it elected even the third Quarterly Bullish Reversal at the end of the 3rd quarter 2021. There was no way the market was heading lower. Clearly, those in charge of hedging were calling the shots from an opinion perspective – not quantitative. For early 2021, Tsingshan began to accumulate a short position. It made statements on its website reflecting its view that the Nickel market was flush and prices should decline. Tsingshan’s short hedge position was equivalent to having sold about 190,000 metric tons on the LME. That would be worth $9.1 billion based on closing prices.
The forecasting view of Tsingshan regarding Nickel is just unfounded. Our model showed that we would start to see a rise in 2022 in price volatility but this is continuing into 2024. The price high may not arrive until 2023 and we may be looking at a new record. This is just another domino in the future of the world economy that just fell over. These Biden Sanctions are not going to be reversed and the pride of politicians is now threatening the entire world economy.
You have not made any comment about the LME Nickel market. In my opinion, this is onether chip of the domino falling which comes to confirm that the collapse of the West is in motion. The loss at Tsingshan is said to be about $8 billion. I have been called in to similar crisis where major corporations have lost billions due to improper hedging. This amount is staggering and clearly reflects that the firm has totally incompetent people in charge of hedging who may be listening to bankers and fundamentals rather than the markets.
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