Protests are Rising Against Leaders who No Longer Represent the People


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany Re-Posted Feb 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

There are protests in Germany accusing the government of supporting the Ukrainian Neo-Nazis and that Germany has forgotten its history. There are many people in Germany who are deeply against this war and if they understood the real history of the Neocons, they would rise up in mass. This crop of world leaders no longer care nor represent the people. Wars are always started by leaders – not the people.

Well, there it is – NATO General Secretary Says Ukraine Will Definitely Become a NATO Member Once Conflict with Russia Concludes


Posted originally on the CTH on February 28, 2023 | Sundance 

After the western alliance previously swore that NATO would not put any member NATO state on the doorstep of Russia, a promise that was weak and viewed by many as false – ultimately influencing the decision by Russia, NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said today that Ukraine will be joining NATO as soon as the conflict is concluded.

Now, given that statement, why would Russia even fathom entering any type of peaceful resolution to the conflict.  In essence, Stoltenberg has just turned the conflict in Ukraine into a zero-sum issue for Russia.  The only way Russia can keep NATO away from its border is to win violently against Ukraine.  WATCH (00:42 prompted):

Do you really believe the United States would be okay with Russia establishing forward military bases in Mexico or Canada?  Why should Russia permit U.S. and NATO military bases on its borders?

We almost went to war when Russia was assisting Cuba with weapons and missiles, and the U.S. will not permit any Russian interests in North America.  Why should Russia accept U.S. interests on their doorstep?

Model & the 1991 Collapse of USSR


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Feb 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I remember your 1991 conference when you said Russia looked like it would collapse by the end of the year. I think it was December 31st when Gorbachev resigned. But I also remember how we were talking about how key reversals were still reappearing but migrating to different time levels. You never talk about that today. You had said that the migration of reversals would often hint at the next crash or slingshot. That was what we got in 1991 when Russia collapsed. Do you see anything like that again?

I am glad you are still at this. You have great insight as a trader.

If Scotty wants to beam you up, please say not yet!

DZ

ANSWER: Only for you Dave. Your memory is better than an elephant’s. OMG, how black was my beard. I also had some hair back then. Yes, you are right. I probably have not written here about the strange manner in which markets do move. Yes, the USSR collapse by the end of that year. There was the August 1991 coup against Gorbachev.

The Quarterly Array back then picked the 4th quarter of 1991 and the 4th quarter of 1992. The first was a Panic breakout to the upside and the second was a Panic to the downside making the reaction low the week of October 10th, 1992. The reversals were clearly fractal in nature and key reversals will reappear and migrate through the various time levels. That was something which was very fascinating. I promise I will find the time to express more detail on that phenomenon. It was indeed another aspect that the model revealed that I never expected. There is such a hidden order that lies behind the mask of randomness.

People who talk about random walks are simply incapable of forecasting for they cannot see the order behind what they think is chaos. Just as Einstein said, he cannot believe that God plays dice with the universe. I discovered the same thing when it comes to market activity. There is no such thing as random walks. There is a secret order to everything.

When I went to economics class, they said there was a business cycle but it is not regular and cannot be predicted because it was random. Then I went to physics class and they said nothing is random. I came to the conclusion someone was lying. It turned out to be the economics professor. Larry Summers still maintains that view. Hence, economists can manipulate society if it is random – not predetermined.

In plotting what Lorenz thought was random weather data, what emerged was a hidden order that we could not see otherwise. This even disproves the entire nonsense of Climate Change. It has always changed and there is a pattern to the movement – it is not random and we have not altered the climate cycle. Again, it is the same type of people who cannot see the patterns in markets so they say it is a random walk.

I ran markets through our Chaos models and patterns of regularity emerged – not random walks. Again, there is far more order to markets and that is why personal opinions will never cut it when we are trying to forecast the future.

I have on my bucket list to do the next book on the ECM – my gift to posterity. Hopefully, one-day people will wake up and understand that there is a hidden order to everything – NOTHING is ever random. When the USSR collapsed, the capital again fled to the USA in the face of a new level of uncertainty. The New Yorker ran the article on me in 2009 and called it  – The Secret Cycle.

War Footing or Ukraine? – Biden Waives Section 303 of DPA Related to Weapons, Ammunition, Explosives and Components


Posted Originally on the CTH on February 27, 2023 | Sundance 

The Defense Production Act (DPA 1950 amended, pdf) essentially is a legislative hurdle that stops the executive from stepping into the private sector and restricting trade, commerce or manufacturing, unless the President says a critical shortage of “xxxx” is present and national security is at stake. It prevents citizens from the threat of govt nationalization of resource “xxxx”.

In the event the President makes a national security determination, he/she is required to inform congress, invoke the waiver authority, and identify which sectors he/she is now outlining as a national security… such that government purchase orders take precedent in the supply of “xxxx”.  Yesterday, President Biden invoked this authority.

Given the pandemic shortages are over, and given the sectors outlined, it looks like munitions, raw material, explosives, electronics and certain component issues related to the Defense Dept are outlined.

Key section: “Therefore, I waive the requirements of section 303(a)(1)-(a)(6) of the Act”

…”specifically for defense organic industrial base supply chains critical to the Department of Defense and critical supply chains for electronics, kinetic capabilities, castings and forgings, minerals and materials, and power and energy storage.” (link)

It’s a use of the DPA definitively targeting defense materials.  Which raises the question(s):

Is this to secure weapons for shipment to Ukraine?..  OR, Is this to secure a buildup of weapons for a larger purpose?   Meaning, is this preparing for an expanded war effort?

There is a lack of media curiosity.  However, perhaps drawing attention to it will stimulate someone to ask the Pentagon?

In the interim, ammunition might become a little harder to find.

The Biden Administration is Just Insane & Should Be Removed At Once


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Feb 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The threats from Biden that all the Russian Assets he has confiscated illegally from private Russians that he will hand to Ukraine is another example that demonstrates that there is nobody in the Biden Administration that understands anything about the world. The United States and Europe have countless private businesses that have assets around the world. Russia has announced if Biden and the EU do that, then they will confiscate all foreign assets.

All of this is because our world leaders have been bought and paid for by the Neocons where the dream has been to conquer Russia and the bankers are licking their lips all over again to get their hands on all the wealth of Russia. These Neocons are leading the world to its doom. They have already destroyed the world economy ending globalization. Our children will NEVER know the freedoms we grew up in. That is all gone. We are leaving our posterity nothing but memories of what used to be unless things radically change at the political level and that is not my opinion. There is not a single world leader who has bothered to question the narrative or to seek peace on any level. They are told this is a war to conquer Russia – period!

Zelenskyy Tells Americans – If We Do Not Support Ukraine, We Will Lose Credibility in World


Posted originally on the CTH on February 25, 2023 | Sundance 

A few interesting aspects to this soundbite before the hubris is displayed.   Notice how Ukraine President Zelenskyy immediately affirms his knowledge that an increasing number of Americans no longer support the endless proxy war in Ukraine.  Apparently, the CIA and State Dept are focused very heavily on managing U.S. war fatigue and communicating that issue with the Ukrainian government they control.  {Direct Rumble Link}

Zelenskyy is asked about the increasing number of Americans who no longer support the war.  His response is to demand support and tell the stoopid Amerikaan voters, their opinion means nothing.  The direct and implied message is, if America doesn’t continue funding the war in Ukraine, our global credibility will collapse and people around the world will start laughing at us.

The propaganda is pretty thick, yet there are millions of Americans asking if the war is really such a dire situation, why does it always seem like there is an endless amount of time to promote the theater of it?  An auditorium filled with mindless captures, stares at a stage containing a leader who has unlimited time to play the role in the script…. yet somewhere, in some place… there is apparently a war happening.  What I mean is, the “theater” of the Ukraine war narrative is consuming far more resources than the actual fighting of the ‘war.’  WATCH:

Zelensky to Americans that think the US is giving away too much support to Ukraine: “If they don’t change their opinion … if they don’t support Ukraine, they will lose NATO”

One Year Later, Biden Fails to Unite the World Against Russia. Plus, Week in Review with Michael Tracey | SYSTEM UPDATE #46


Glenn Greenwald Posted originally on Rumble on: Feb 24, 7:00 pm EST

The Ukraine War has been in the Planning Stage since 2013


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Feb 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

From the beginning, the United States provided $5 billion to fund the Ukrainian Revolution in 2014. The US-installed interim government launched the civil war against the Donbas on US instructions. Then in 2014, Obama signed a bill authorizing lethal aid to be provided to Kiev. Then in 2015, NATO Commander General Philip Breedlove favors military aid to Ukraine. The US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, John Kerry, and General Martin Dempsey of the Joint Chiefs agreed.

The West has been planning war against Russia using Ukraine as cannon fodder from the very start. The Neocons are a third party unto themselves. There are both Republicans and Democrats in their ranks. These people want war. They do not know how to exist without an enemy. Communism fell, but that did not matter. It was briefly replaced with the War on Terror. When the hung Saddam Hussein, they looked around and said – Ok who is next? Ah! Russia and then China!

Biden & Putin Duel with Words


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Feb 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

President Vladimir Putin shot down the balloons claiming he would declare war on NATO, martial law in Russia, or announce a new major wave of military mobilization because Russia is losing. What is really sad is to find the total lack of any unbiased account from any mainstream media around the world whatsoever proving that the media is all behind this agenda to create World War III. They have been given instructions from their respective governments and how dare they offer any actual investigative analysis.

Most are reporting that Putin has merely recycled the same lines about his rationale for invading Ukraine nearly one year ago. They have ignored the entire Minsk Agreement or the fact that Zelensky told the press the day before the invasion on February 23rd, 2022 that Ukraine would no longer be neutral and was preparing to rearm itself with nuclear weapons. We invaded Iraq claiming that was what Saddam was doing when he made no such public statement.

They all pretty much reported that Putin offered no vision of how the war he launched might end. They have exonerated everyone in the West and Zelensky as some savior of Democracy when he outlaws all criticism of him at home and orders the Donbas will no longer be part of the Russian Orthodox Church but be subservient to his new Patriarch of Kyiv.

Putin’s only measured response was to announce that Russia is suspending its participation in the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty. Even that was merely a formal statement for he then said that Russia would not start testing nuclear weapons unless the United States did first.

What I have been reporting from reliable sources is that the view in Russia has shifted from a war with Ukraine to a war against the United States and NATO. Putin said:

“The US and NATO openly state that their goal is the strategic defeat of Russia,”
He added. “And what, after that are we just supposed to let them to travel around our (nuclear) facilities?”

“They want to inflict a strategic defeat on us and climb all over our nuclear facilities,” Putin said.

“So I’d like to make the announcement today that Russia is suspending its participation in the START Treaty.”

Still, Putin is not the war-monger that the Western Press is told to print. He has had 30 years to invade Europe and has not. The Russian people are not interested in conquering Europe. This is old Neocon propaganda stories that have been pushing the entire theory of Regime Change all along. They objected to Reagan’s meeting with Gorbachev and claimed back then that it was a trap and that Gorbachev should not be trusted.

Putin has demonstrated that he was not looking for World War III and made it clear that Russia is not withdrawing from the treaty entirely, only suspending participation. We must not forget that it was the United States claiming neutrality while sending arms to Britain using passenger ships that got the US into WWI. NATO and the US are by no means neutral, this entire Ukrainian War was begun in 2014 by the US’s interim unelected government in Kyiv which began the civil war and sent troops to invade the Donbas in 2014.

Joe Biden seems to actually think he will be running in 2024. The display for him in Poland with all the lights was clearly a ploy from Roman times and the light coming from the head of Sol to save the Roman Empire in its time of desperate need during the reign of Aurelian 270-275AD who built the Wall Around Rome to hold off the barbarian invasions. The Rays of light were to symbolize the Roman god Sol, the Sun, who rose every day and was thus invincible (SOL INVICTUS).

Even the Statue of Liberty used the same symbol – INVICTUS. Interestingly, this paved the way for Christianity for even our Christmas Day was the feast day of Sol. The lights behind Biden were deliberately placed for the very same message, that we will be INVINCIBLE. Biden was pitching his reelection in 2024 as well. He declared:

“The decisions we make over the next five years or so are going to determine and shape our lives for decades to come.” In that sense, he is correct. This will be a major war like no other before and it will indeed reshape the future. But the victory lap before the battle is typical to boost morale and convince people they are about to die for a very good cause.

Biden added: “The choice between chaos and stability, between building and destroying, between hope and fear, between democracy, [which] lifts up the human spirit, and the brutal hand of the dictator who crushes it.” All of this is propaganda. Putin is no more a dictator than any other world leader. In fact, we all live in a real dictatorship for Republics are the worst form of government ever conceived. Biden has never allowed the people to vote on this war. We are to die with no right to even object to this war.

The bias of the press is just amazing. Even Bloomberg wrote: “Putin falsely blamed the West for starting the conflict and said the Kremlin wouldn’t be the first to test nuclear weapons.” They simply refuse to even state the truth about anything. They ignore the fact that the West agreed to the Minsk settlement only to buy time confirming the West wants this war. The press all have their orders – whip up the people for World War III. The truth no longer matters.

Biden declared that Russia would never win the war and never addressed Putin’s remarks about suspending the treaty. He also threatened China declaring that he will sanction every company that supports Putin’s invasion. Biden has failed to consider any honoring of the Minsk Agreement and Xi Jinping has been trying to broker peace but Biden will have nothing to do with any peace agreement – he is reading his teleprompter and only wants war.

Biden has decreed all of this because the Neocons behind the curtain are demanding war – the ultimate goal they have been seeking since they stood against Ronald Reagan even talking with Gorbachev. They have opposed any relationship with Russia. They imposed sanctions on the export of pipe ever since Russia and Germany came to an agreement back in 1955.

West’s Duplicity – Biden’s Surprise Visit Before Putin’s Speech


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Feb 21, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Biden made a surprise visit to Ukraine one day ahead of Putin’s National Address scheduled for February 21st. Biden had the audacity to put out the West’s constant propaganda:

“One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands,” he declared. “The Americans stand with you and the world stands with you.”

Putin is elected the head of Russia by its Parliament the same system that takes place in Britain, the EU, Canada, and every country with a Parliamentary system. Only the United States is where the head of state stands for election by the people. This nonsense that Ukraine stands for democracy against Russia is just total outright lies. This only demonstrates that we cannot trust a single word from governments in such times. As they say, truth is the first casualty in war.

Had the West simply been honest and honored what they negotiated that the Donbas under the Minsk Agreement was to be allowed to vote on their own separatist movement. All the deaths in Ukraine and their blood are on the hands of the West. This war would have NEVER taken place if the Minsk Agreement was honored.

Blinken has made it clear that the US will NEVER accept the Minsk Agreement and it was indeed only to buy time for a war they wanted from the start. The Biden Administration changed the arrangement with Ukraine in 2021 altering all previous agreements since 2008. This is a Neocon’s dream come true – a direct confrontation with Russia. He outright said that there shall be no peace by returning any land to allow the Russians of the Donbas to live in peace free of Ukrainian domination.

“If we do that, we will open a Pandora’s box around the world, and every would-be aggressor will conclude that, ‘If Russia got away with it, we can get away with it,’” Blinken said. “And that’s not in anyone’s interest, because it’s a recipe for a world of conflict.”

This illustrates the duplicity of the West and the desire for World War III. These are the people who are cheering the destruction of our future all for a strip of land that has been occupied by Russians for centuries.

Even China has come out and bluntly stated: “We would like a political solution to provide a peaceful and sustainable framework to Europe.” The US refuses to seek peace on any reasonable terms whatsoever. The arrogance of the United States is just astounding. They have told China not to aid Russia. As Fox News reported, China is furious after the US warns against arming Russia: “The US is in no position to tell China what to do.”

In all my years of dealing with governments, NEVER have I ever even once witnessed such stupidity and arrogance on the part of any government. This Biden Administration seems to be going out of its way to piss off just about everyone in the world to create World War III. This is just unimaginable. They seem to want to “shrink” the world’s population by 50% with war to get their pat on the back from Gates, Rockefeller Foundation, and Schwab. When you say it is your way or no way, that is not how you negotiate anything.

History will remember the Biden Administration with contempt as the Hitler or Napoleon of the 21st Century.