Uncensored: Martin Armstrong – Hell in 2023, Recession, Civil Unrest but Schwab Will Fail!


Armstrong economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Jul 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

World-renowned Economist Martin Armstrong joins Maria Zeee to discuss what he describes as “Hell” in 2023, the recession we are already in, the rise of civil unrest, and more – but he says Schwab WILL fail! Click here to learn more!

January 6th – a Fair Investigation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jul 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Double Vaxxed, Double Boosted, Loaded with Paxlovid, Joe Biden Gets COVID Again


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 30, 2022 

Well, isn’t that convenient.   Sorry folks, I can’t come out and take questions, I’ve got the Rona again.

[SOURCE]

Only the second thing that has been positive during his tenure.

[Source Link pdf]

Not Every Developed Western Nation is Destroying Itself While Chasing the Build Back Better Objective


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 30, 2022 | Sundance 

In fact, there are several western nations who see the ‘climate change” energy transformation as an economic kamikaze mission… and that reality is upsetting those who control the larger western alliance agenda.

When we outlined the ‘biggest problem‘ we noted: Brazil, Mexico, and more recently Japan, have started pushing back against the climate change ideologues.  We must do the same.

So, let’s get everyone up to speed.

Factually, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is not only a nationalist leader for his country, Brazil itself is in an emerging economic relationship within the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).  The BRICS group are not in ideological or geopolitical alignment with the World Economic Forum (WEF) climate change instructions known as Build Back Better.  This lack of ideological synergy is one of the reasons we see a joint effort between the U.S. State Dept and U.S. intelligence group to target Jair Bolsonaro for removal.  [Watch Bolsonaro w/ Tucker Carlson]

Recently, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) visited the White House.  AMLO is basically soft-socialist, a nationalist who does not like the influence of multinational corporations on the economic politics within Mexico.  When he visited with Joe Biden, AMLO’s public comments in the oval office (he actually had them written down so he would not be deterred from his delivery) about the U.S. chasing a short-sighted and dangerous energy policy, were just ignored by media.  However, watching AMLO deconstruct the Biden energy policy was very telling. [Review Outline Here].

In addition to so-called geopolitical adversaries like Russia, China and Iran, there are also geopolitical allies who clearly see that fracturing the global economy based on energy development, the center of the Build Back Better agenda, is going to create major issues for the citizens within the countries determined by ideological quest to change their energy system.   As noted with Brazil and Mexico, not everyone in the “west” is on board with the program.

Even in Germany and the U.K. we see evidence indicating pragmatic discussion is starting to surface.

There will eventually be an inflection point within the EU as the desires of the ideological leaders run into the reality of the situation.  [ex. Dutch farm protests]

The Build Back Better climate agenda is essentially a process to deindustrialize economies, then rebuild them.  Will Germany really accept a lower standard of living, just to be equitable in economic malaise?  If you know any German people, you know the answer to that is an emphatic NO.

Additionally, southeast Asia (ASEAN group) represents an almost impossible region to shift away from traditional oil, coal, gasoline and food derivatives that need fertilizer and natural gas etc.  And everyone knows China is not going to go along with the ‘climate’ nonsense.

Even if Beijing puts a smiley-faced panda mask on the Beijing dragon, they are going to use the climate change suicide mission of the west as a geopolitical advantage toward their own expanded economic influence.  Hell, who wouldn’t.

♦ Which brings me to the recent appearance of Japanese pushback, which comes with a typically Japanese subtlety.

Keep in mind that Japanese industry is still the largest investor in U.S. manufacturing and jobs.

Despite Japan signing-on with the western alliance sanctions against Russia, almost assuredly a decision intended to stay in alignment with the G7 politics, recently Japan has refused to join the collective western approach to raise central bank interest rates to facilitate the BBB ‘transition’ (link).

This has caused the Japanese yen to fall rapidly against western currency, specifically against the U.S. dollar.  The dollar has gained 25.5% against the Japanese yen (link).

Now, inflation in Japan is still an issue, but it is less an issue than in the EU and North America (Canada/USA with Mexico excluded).  Part of that lower inflation dynamic is caused by Japan not driving supply-side inflation as a result of the energy transition.

The decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has created some anxiety within the western alliance group of central bankers.  Additionally, Japan is remaining in good standing with Russia for energy resources and continues to purchase all oil and LNG at the lowest rates possible, regardless of origination. Japan is also the top investor and buyer of LNG from Russia’s Sakhalin-2 plant, so they are the most exposed to Moscow’s new demand to pay for energy through a Russian bank.

(Reuters) – SINGAPORE — Russia’s Sakhalin Energy Investment Co has requested its liquefied natural gas (LNG) customers to make payments via a Moscow unit of a European bank and is in talks to change the payment currencies away from U.S. dollars, two sources familiar with the matter said on Friday. (link)

Again, another geopolitical dynamic that breaks Japan away from the collective western suicide mission.

From the perspective of Japan, all of these moves -while not aligning with the demands of the BBB agenda- make perfect sense.

While their currency is suffering from not following the western agenda, they have several upsides.  First, exports from Japan to the United States and the EU now become even cheaper. With a higher dollar value, Japanese imports into the United States come at a discount.  This will help Japan export goods and retain a strong export economy.

Second, with Japan already a massive investor inside the United States, the dollars that are generated in profit from their operations are delivered back to Japan at a higher value.  A higher dollar value, the outcome of their breaking from the western central bank decision to raise rates, does not hurt Japan.  They bring back high valued dollars from their decades in investment into North America, and they continue exporting to the U.S. at a discount.

So, the nationalist outlooks of Japan, Brazil and even our Mexican neighbors are reflecting a pragmatic self-interest that so far has withstood the pressures from the western alliance to fall into line.  This is how those three countries are positioned to push back against the insufferable BBB agenda.

We can use the example of those western industrialized nations to show that not everyone is in alignment with this globalist multinational finance and corporate takeover.

If we can get more people to see how short-sighted and dangerous the agenda of the World Economic Forum is, we can further expose the real nature of the BBB agenda, to accumulate wealth and control amid a very small conglomerate of WEF corporate and banking interests.

The ‘climate change agenda‘ has always been about a small group of multinational interests having more assembled power, influence and affluence.  As they now take their Davos effort onto the world stage, they will encounter resistance and push-back.  Not everyone in the western alliance is on board with the objective.

Stay smart, avoid the shiny things, stay focused, and look for ways to throw sand into the machinery.

There are more of us than them.

Fed Preferred Inflation Index Jumps 6.8% in June, Largest Increase in Four Decades


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 29, 2022 | Sundance 

The federal reserve looks carefully at the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index when weighting inflation data.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis just released the PCE index for June [DATA HERE] and the results show a 6.8% increase in June from a year ago, the largest jump in four decades.

Wage growth in the second quarter (April, May, June) was generally strong, rising 1.6%.  However, it now looks like the consumption index and the wage indexes are creating their own inflationary spiral.  In addition to supply-side inflation, driven by Joe Biden’s energy costs, the labor costs are now increasing substantially which adds costs on the production side of the economy.

As wages go up to keep pace with supply side inflation, the prices of goods and services produced/handled by those workers also increases.  This is the inflation spiral that can get out of hand quickly.  The major concern (not necessarily expressed by pundits) is the inability of any institutional economic response to offset the originating inflation caused by the energy policy.  The economic team is pretending supply-side inflation created by energy policy doesn’t exist. They are only directing attention to demand side inflation.

As long as energy policy keeps driving the price of electricity, gasoline and petroleum products higher, workers need higher wages.  Those wage increases, while significant in scale, still lag the rising originating prices of the goods; and the wage growth adds to the final costs. Inflation then becomes structurally embedded, hyper-inflation begins.  This looks like the current situation.

The monetary policy makers (fed reserve) can only impact the demand side of the inflationary cycle.  Raising interest rates does reduce demand; however, it also reduces labor at the same time.   Monetary policy cannot impact the originating source of inflation that starts this spiral.  The core issue is Joe Biden’s Green New Deal energy agenda.

WASHINGTON – […] An inflation gauge closely tracked by the Fed jumped 6.8% in June from a year ago, the government said Friday, the biggest such jump in four decades. Much of the increase was driven by energy and food.

On a month-to-month basis, too, prices surged 1% in June, the biggest such rise since 2005. Even excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices climbed 0.6% from May to June.

Employees’ wages, excluding government workers, jumped 1.6% in the April-June quarter, matching a record high reached last fall. Higher wages tend to fuel inflation if companies pass their higher labor costs on to their customers, as they often do.

Friday’s figures underscored the persistence of the inflation that is eroding Americans’ purchasing power, dimming their confidence in the economy and threatening Democrats in Congress in the run-up to the November midterm elections.

But more persistent drivers of inflation show little, if any, evidence of slowing. The wage data released Friday — a measure known as the employment cost index — indicated that paychecks were still growing at a robust pace. That’s good for workers, but it could raise concerns at the Fed about its effect on prices. Chair Jerome Powell specifically cited this measure during a news conference Wednesday as a source of concern for the the central bank’s policymakers.

“This is a (report) that’s going to keep Fed officials up at night,” said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights. (read more)

Comment on Woke


Armstrong Economics Blog/Human Rights Re-Posted Jul 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

00:22

COMMENT: I went to sign up for a dating site. It asks only if you are interested in men or women. I am really confused since we do not know what a woman is anymore. I think it needs to be more clearly defined.

(1) Someone who identifies as a birthing person

(2) Someone who has been transformed into a birthing person for appearance’s sake

(2) Someone who has been transformed into a birthing person who can give birth

(4) Someone who is a natural birthing person

(5) Someone who is a retired natural birthing person

(6) Someone who is non-binary and identifies as whatever depending on the moment

RP

REPLY: My question is after Harris identifies as a woman, which is now a debatable term, she then states what she is wearing. Maybe I’m too old. But I do not understand why someone would state what they are wearing unless they are saying they are not wearing a traditional dress. Why stop there? Should we now identify the type of underwear she is wearing? I have never gone to a meeting, ever, where you stated what you were wearing. Never in all my meetings with Maggie did she ever once state her gender.

You could tell with COVID their mental state depending if they wore a mask and demanded yours had to be over your nose. But this is far beyond that. This has all gone insane.

Chinese on US Real Estate Spending Spree


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Jul 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Chinese are keen on investing in tangible assets, namely real estate. Canada implemented restrictions on foreign buyers after accusing them of the real estate shortage and sky-high prices. Chinese buyers are now targeting the American housing market. In fact, Chinese buyers outnumbered buyers from any other foreign country and spent over $6 billion on US real estate from April 2021 to March 2022. Canadians came in second for foreign home buyers, spending $5.5 billion in the same period.

The National Association of Realtors also noted that Chinese buyers tend to purchase more expensive properties, averaging over $1 million at a time when home prices were averaging under $400,000 (prices have risen since then). Around 31% of Chinese buyers selected properties in California and tend to choose wealthier areas for investments.

This is simply a means to park cash. Around 44% of foreign buyers purchased homes in all-cash deals. Non-resident foreign buyers were 60% likely to pay in cash compared to 30% of resident foreign buyers. Yes, this does mean that home prices will rise as foreign buyers can outbid most domestic buyers. This is good news for sellers who may have found themselves with no bid but disastrous for the average citizen who is struggling to find permanent shelter while paying for high rental properties that further remove them from the dream of homeownership.

One thing to consider is geopolitical relations. Look at how the US and others treated  Russian “oligarchs” this past year by seizing all their assets under the pretense of conspiracy. No actual crime needed to be committed for bank accounts and assets to be forfeited. Tensions are rising with China, namely over Taiwan, and it is not unreasonable to think that the US could pull the same move on another nation. The Chinese government is selling off US debt and slowly putting distance between itself and the current top economy. Private investors may follow suit if geopolitical tensions continue to rise.

Is Europe Sleepwalking into its Demise?


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Jul 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

When the Allies crossed the border to invade Germany as WWII came to an end, the German population hung white sheets from the windows to signify their surrender. Just a few years before, the German people were told to celebrate the prospect of dominating Europe as retribution for the punishment they endured because of the war waged by the leaders before. The Prince of Savoy, who inspired the 2nd Amendment to the US Constitution, warned that war was inevitable because kings held standing armies, and they wanted to use them to get their money’s worth.

Today, the people of Europe were told that the euro would cure all things, even gout, and would lead to Europe surpassing the United States economically. They said the euro would kill the dollar once and for all. How dare this upstart country think it could surpass the majesty of Europe with centuries of history to support it.

Yet today, there is growing bewilderment within Europe. Even Germany has slipped into a disoriented state, with its leaders sleepwalking into a dark fate for Europe. World leaders seem to have forgotten everything from history class, or perhaps they cut that one to smoke a joint outside on campus. They have turned the economic success of generations to rebuild Europe into a declining trend pockmarked with rising authoritarianism. These leaders lack any sense of future other than the raw power they seem to cling to.

Even the Germans settled into a comfortable life, climbing to the top of the economic status within the EU and rising from the ashes with hard work. They were told to believe in their own accomplishments and their superiority within Europe and that their economic system was working perfectly. Sadly, the people were induced with success into a trend of self-deception. Leaders preached changing everything to a new Green world with intoxicating visions of saving the planet as a noble deed. The future would be one of zero emissions and tempered population control.

The people are starting to awaken while their leaders are still sleepwalking into their own destruction. Klaus Schwab believes this is the Fourth Industrial Revolution of AI and technology. His 8 points for 2030 are all really about the end of the Financial Age of endless borrowing with no intention of paying it back. It takes curiosity for innovation, not dehumanizing authoritarianism. The very cornerstone of civilization is we come together because it is mutually beneficial to all. Once we enter the world of Marxist Socialism, those in power have used it to divide us into classes and proclaim they are saints. The powerful are always concerned about only our welfare, which justifies their exercise of brute force. The very purpose of civilization has ceased to exist, warning that cyclically, we must crash and burn until we remember once again what makes a civilization great.

It is true that Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon on January 10, 49 BC (49.02) to purge the corruption in the Republic, but corruption resurfaced. Because he forgave his enemies, they conspired and assassinated him on the Ides of March 44 BC (44.20), just 4.82 years later (250.6 weeks, 62 months). That resulted in another civil war and then the defeat of Mark Antony and Cleopatra at the Battle of Actium in 31 BC. Octavian became emperor officially with the title Augustus on January 16, 27 BC (27.04). The Julian Claudian dynasty ended with the death of Nero on June 9, 68 AD (68.43), lasting 95.47 years. Thus, there is never a permanent new era. There are cycles to everything, and forming the EU was also not something that would endure for 1,000 years and more than the Julio-Claudian Dynasty of Rome.

So while fools really think this New World Order will unfold and the dreams of Schwab will be realized, this idea of perpetual borrowing and kicking the can down the road has already come to an end. This is what Schwab is really saying – you will own nothing and be happy. That is foretelling the end of debt-supported government. They are moving on to the Modern Monetary Theory — print what you need when you need it. However, the sudden rise in inflation currently has caused some to question even this new MMT theory.

So as the West thinks it can wage conventional war and defeat Russia to bring it under the new authoritarian control of the United Nations, they are well aware that Ukraine is the MOST corrupt government in the world. Already, weapons handed to them are being stolen and sold on the black market, as took place in Afghanistan. Instead of people cruising around for five-week holidays, the price of gas is at $10 a gallon in Europe. With the increasing threat of war, the future is anything from comfortable. Europe is awakening to realize that guns and soldiers are once again back in demand. The vast industrial production of Germany that sold its products to consumers is staring at its demise, battling with two foes — climate change and war. Germany can no longer rely upon the industriousness of its people as its leaders try to paint a fairytale version of the future.

We warned at the Europe Conference that those who believed that this New World Order would actually unfold were fools. The consolidation of the world under the authority of the United Nations will never succeed. Unfortunately, a lot of people will die trying to bring this dream to fruition as they did the last time Marxism was attempted.

Wal Mart Lowers Profit Expectations and Highlights Recession Shift in Consumer Behavior


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 26, 2022 | Sundance 

A key metric in the data released by Wal Mart is not their upfront sales and profit. The recessionary KPI (key performance indicator) is a significant increase in same store sales of 6% (excluding fuel), yet the outcome of that increase in customers is a decrease in profit because the purchases are food.

[Keep an eye on this and we will likely see a similar increase in foot traffic at Aldis]

(VIA NBC) […] Walmart, which is the biggest grocer in the U.S. and often considered a bellwether for the overall economy, said more customers are turning to its stores, which are known for low prices, to fill their pantries and fridges. But they are skipping over general merchandise that they can live without.

Walmart said it now expects same-store sales in the U.S. to rise by about 6% in the second quarter, excluding fuel, as customers buy more food at its stores. That’s higher than the 4% to 5% increase that the company previously expected.  However, that merchandise mix will weigh on the company. Groceries have lower profit margins than discretionary items, such as TVs and clothing.

“The increasing levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend, and while we’ve made good progress clearing hardline categories, apparel in Walmart U.S. is requiring more markdown dollars,” CEO Doug McMillon said in a news release.  (read more)

Discretionary spending is gone.  Blue-collar and white-collar middle-class consumers are in a financial hunker down mode.  We will see several tiers of socioeconomic strata start to shift down now.  Stores like Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods will become more of a luxury and indulgence.

Consumer confidence continues to drop:

(The Hill) – Consumer confidence slipped for the third straight month in July as sky-high prices dampened demand for products and services, according to a new survey.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which tracks consumer attitudes and buying intentions, dropped from 98.4 percent last month to 95.7 percent in July, its lowest level since last year. (read more)

As the economic situation continues to unfold, new terminology will be adopted to hide and disguise reality.  As we have just witnessed the White House redefine “recession” so too will they redefine “unemployment” to something like “transitional workers.”

We can expect to see government officials say something akin to, “our transitional workforce may expand for some time as our economy shifts.”  Meaning unemployment may rise as the Green New Deal is implemented by executive fiat.  This is how they operate.

We are in an era of great pretending. [ GO DEEP ] That is our problem. It’s not just what they are doing, it is our willingness to pretend they are not doing it.  As long as denial remains a survival mechanism, because acceptance is just too painful to admit, no corrective action is possible.

Our economy is being intentionally guided into a declining status in order to bring forth the “transition” they desire.

Kamala Harris Clarifies Her Personage During White House Round Table


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 26, 2022 | Sundance

Just in case you were unaware Ms. Harris wants you to be aware:

“Good afternoon.  I want to welcome these leaders for coming in to have this very important discussion about some of the most pressing issues of our time.  I am Kamala Harris.  My pronouns are “she” and “her.”  I am a woman sitting at the table wearing a blue suit.”

.

The cultural Marxists are working overtime to make people believe this is now the acceptable social norm.  It’s not, it’s just plain weird and goofy.

[Transcript] …”I’ve asked these leaders to come in so that we can discuss these issues and pay attention to the fact that the Dobbs decision and the act of the United States Supreme Court to take away a constitutional right, that had been recognized, from the people of America will impact a lot of people and differently in some situations.  And we need to be responsive to these issues and also lift up the voices of all people who will be impacted and the way that they will be impacted. So that’s why we are convened today.  And I will add a couple of points of the impact in terms of the direct impact that we anticipate there will be from the Dobbs decision”…

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