Western Sanctions Not Impacting Russian Economy as Much as Expected


Posted originally on the CTH on August 9, 2023 | Sundance 

I have been researching the MACRO economic dynamic in Russia quite deeply for the past six months.  Essentially looking to discover not only what impact the western imposed sanctions might be having, but more broadly looking to see what happens to self-sustainability when essentially locked out from the world of commercial imports.

The research is fascinating, not simply because it is a unique opportunity, but also because national economic issues play a big role in the overall social dynamic.  That said, I can say the social aspect is stunningly more interesting than the data driven outcomes.  When you really dig deep into actual life of the ordinary people in Russia, far away from the geopolitical contexts, you get an entirely different perspective.  My worldview of the average Russian person/family has completely changed.

There is a really good thread on how the western sanctions against Russia are having a much lesser impact than initially thought [SEE HERE].  On the economic side, one thing I would point to is how the economy is essentially an outcome of two facets: (1) the internal production strength, and (2) the service side of the ledger.

[READ HERE]

The author makes the accurate point that from a production side perspective, Russia actually has a larger economy now than Germany, the largest EU nation.  The cause for this is “autarchy” or self-sufficiency.  Indeed, as the timeline of the sanctions closes in on the second year completing, the Russian production economy is even stronger than when the sanctions began.  Quite simply, they are making even more of their own goods now.

The sanctions hit what would typically fall into the service side of the economy, as well as financial and economic roadblocks.  However, that aspect of the Russian economy was much smaller than most suspected and there were sanctions going back to 2014 which made the outcome of the 2022 western imposed restrictions less impactful.

I will be finishing my review of the economic data once Q3 is over, that will give me an entire year of data to share.  However, the social stuff is even more fascinating.

I have a new understanding of why former NSA contractor Edward Snowden was so comfortable using Russia as the place to hide after his release of classified intelligence showing how the U.S. government was spying on Americans via social media and metadata collection.

I have mostly been looking at three areas in Western Russia.  Kazan, Moscow and St Petersburg (formerly Leningrad).  Of the three generally large metropolitan areas, St Petersburg is by far the most interesting.  It’s beautiful there and the city is alive and vibrant.

In many ways you might compare Russia in 2023 to the USA in/around 1988.  Life is just not complicated and far more socially engaged.

I’ll have more on this later, but if you are ever bored check out the Russian YouTubers who livestream broadcast “a day-in-the-life” type of activity.  The infrastructure is in generally good repair, the people seem warm and friendly and there is a strong social value placed on family and kids.

There are certainly negatives and the cultural dynamic of the former USSR is still evident.  Technologically they are somewhat behind in some details, but the overall cohesion of their value system is something I did not fully appreciate until I started down this road of research.

I can see why the average Russian could be wide-eyed during a visit to the USA and fascinated with the overall quality of life that might be considered indulgent.  However, I can also see how reciprocally the average American could be wide-eyed and smiling at the overall sense of the Russian people.

Strip out the politics, and we are all much more similar than we are different.

Ramaswamy Sued the WEF and Won


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Aug 8, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

This story has not gained enough attention. GOP presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy took on the globalist elite of the World Economic Forum (WEF) for “creating a false perception” that he was involved in their organization. The WEF attempted to list Ramaswamy as a Young Global Leader but he denied their invitation. After repeatedly asking the organization to remove his name from their marketing, he filed a lawsuit against them in 2021.

“The World Economic Forum’s mission to achieve global ‘equity’ poses a serious threat to the American way of life,” Ramaswamy said in a statement. “Our Founding Fathers fought the American Revolution to declare independence from the Old World monarchy. That old monster now rears its head again in the form of WEF’s agendas including ‘stakeholder capitalism’ and the ‘Great Reset.’ That’s why I’ve been one of the most vocal crusaders in America against WEF, and I am filing this lawsuit to hold them accountable for creating the false illusion of affiliation to undermine its opponents – so that they don’t do it again to others,” he added.

This is a common fake news tactic. The WEF wanted to discredit the candidate by claiming he was associated with them. The globalists did the exact same thing to me and claimed that a man named Martin Armstrong was contributing to their World Economic Forum. I received numerous calls and emails asking me if I suddenly switched sides. Look, I began our WEC in 1985. Schwab started his WEF in 1987. Marcus Vetter did the film, “The Forecaster,” on me, so Schwab called him and paid him to do a documentary too. This has been a back-and-forth ordeal for a long time.

I appreciate a presidential candidate who is knowledgeable and vocal about the Great Reset – not a pawn of the Deep State or willing to cave to the pressures of being labeled a conspiracy theorist for calling out one of the most powerful organizations on the planet. He has also directly called out George Soros, despite critics saying he received funding from the Soros organization to attend Yale Law School. “The WEF has a radical worldview that rejects the principles America was founded on. I’m not interested in being a ‘global citizen.’ I’m an American,” he stated.

European Companies Lost Over €100 Billion on Russia Amid War


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Aug 8, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Financial Times estimates that European companies have lost at least €100 billion ($110 billion) since the Russia-Ukraine war began. Around 176 European companies noted significant losses in their fiscal year reports for 2022, and the future remains grim as tensions continue to grow.

Naturally, energy-related industries faced half of those losses, followed by banking, chemicals, industrial, and automotive. BP, TotalEnergies, and Shell lost 40.6 billion euros due to the war, but the spike in energy costs helped them to post favorable earnings reports. Numerous European companies cited “asset impairments, foreign exchange-related charges and other one-off expenses as a result of the sale, closure or reduction of Russian businesses.” Britain, Germany, and France reported the steepest losses, attributing to at least 20 billion of the 100 billion euros lost.

Half of the 1,871 European companies previously operating in Russia are still conducting full or limited business there, according to the Kyiv School of Economics. Russia has since required foreign companies fleeing Russia to pay a 10% exit fee and sell their assets to Russian companies at a 50% discount. It is nearly impossible for companies to operate in Russia due to high sanctions, logistics, and public pressure. Businesses that did not flee will be faced with massive charges from Moscow and are practically stuck between forfeiting their businesses or attempting to operate amid an escalating war.

WEF Agenda 2030


Armstrong Economics Blog/WEF Re-Posted Aug 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Sunday Talks – Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni Discusses EU Challenges, Chinese Influence, G7 Obligations, Ukraine and Vision for Africa


Posted originally on the CTH on July 31, 2023 | Sundance 

Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni sounds slightly less nationalist and slightly more globalist in this interview as she discusses the current challenges for Italy within the European Union.  With a large focus on the African continent, mostly driven by root cause illegal immigration, Prime Minister Meloni outlines how supporting the African economic needs are a pragmatic solution to the outflow of migrants. {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:

Day 820 of Build Back Better


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor re-Posted Jul 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

RFK Tells the Truth About Our War with Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jul 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Ukrainian General said Zelensky is Responsible for 100,000’s Dead Ukrainians


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Jul 20, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, My cousin is in government here ___________________, and he said you have the best sources that even surpass some intelligence agencies. Only you have been reporting that your Ukrainian sources told you that Zelensky is corrupt and has destroyed his country for a handful of silver. It is coming out that the Ukrainian Army General Serhiy Krivonos has openly said that Zelensky has indeed destroyed his country. He actually said, “This colossal mistake resulted in hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians and the destruction of a huge number of cities.”

My cousin said people from all countries go to you because they have a similar mindset. Would you agree? Why are your sources better than anyone else?

GDK

ANSWER: Zelensky is an actor – nothing more. He is destroying his country because he cares nothing about its people and plans his exit to a mansion in Miami. He always dresses in army clothing as a psychological ploy to constantly pretend he is fighting for freedom. This is such a lie, for Ukraine would never have been in such a position if Kiev did not start the civil war attacking the Donbas. This is the dissent against Putin that he did not invade Ukraine as the US did to Iraq. They are ethnic Russians who have been there for centuries in the Donbas. The US has done similar actions involving Americans in foreign nations. Zelensky wants them to surrender their language and their religion. This is absurd. He is willing to destroy his country and hopes that he will be able to sell the farmland and resources to Blackrock and live in Miami as a billionaire – tax-free, of course.

Zelensky is listed in the Panama Papers, and the fact-checkers try to divert people away from this fact. When Zelensky’s European tour took place begging for money, online claims went viral that he had purchased luxury villas in Crimea, Italy, and England with Western military aid money. This appears to be fake news. However, this may, in fact, be to cover the fact that he does have a property in Miami, most likely stashed under a fake name since this is where you find all the super-rich Ukrainians and Russians in Miami.

There are people in Ukraine, as there are in every country, who are the opposition to the current government. The Western press will never tell you about them because they are trying to create a false impression that the country is 100% behind him. Over 8 million have fled and are living mostly in Germany and Poland. They have lost everything, and many are now asking – For War? To occupy the Donbas with Russians?

People have been coming to us for decades. I have had central banks sharing info because they want it out but know that we have the largest institutional client base. Thus, they want the info to the people that matter. In addition, most journalists can spell and write nicely, but they do not know the subject matter of their writing. I remember an institutional session I did in Toronto, and the Bank of Canada took a table with 10 people. All the institutions knew who they were. They would ask me what the central bank was looking at. I would tell them, and everyone would look at that table for some reaction. When it was over, I told the head guy I hoped I did not say anything offensive. He responded it was fantastic. He wished he could tell these people outright but could not.

Even when I was invited by the People’s Bank of China during the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997, I had been warning that the capital flows shifted and turned back to Europe for the coming Euro in 1998. They said I was doing a fantastic job and to keep up the work. When I asked why they would not come out and say what I said, they replied that they could not criticize another central bank.

My sources are the best BECAUSE, in most cases, they cannot speak freely even to mainstream media, especially today. After what they did to me, it has had the OPPOSITE effect. Today, I have even more sources coming to me because they say

NOW I KNOW YOU ARE NOT PART OF NEW YORK. 

Interesting times. So yes, every intelligence agency reads this blog. I have the real-world experience of an international hedge fund manager, the only AI model that monitors the entire world.

When Nigel Farage came to our Rome WEC, he stood up and said, of course, he would appear because my WEC is the “alternative to Davos.”. I regard Nigel as a friend. Now the uproar over his treatment by the private bank Coutts, owned by NatWest Group, whose biggest shareholder just so happens to be the UK government since the 2008 financial crisis, has finally compelled them to apologize to Nigel. This is the world we live in. It has become so corrupt that you have to not just count your fingers when shaking hands with some; you better make sure you still have your arm.