Posted originally on CTH on August 29, 2025 | Sundance

There are going to be two major stories in 2026 that we will have full context to understand.  Yes, the 2026 midterm politics are going to lead the headlines, but two other issues will have considerable impact.

The first, is the FISA (702) reauthorization, and there is a lot that will surface in the next several months likely to upend the best laid plans of the administrative UniParty [Tulsi Factor].  The second, is the USMCA reauthorization – the end of the trilateral trade agreement, and the structural shift into two separate free trade agreements.

As to the latter issue, while Mexico and Canada are currently in a state of economic flux, only Mexico is preparing to deal with the seismic shift that is about to unfold.  Canada is going to be caught completely off guard.

While Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is trotting around Europe trying to establish his relevance amid the pro-Ukraine coalition,  Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is spending time focused on her domestic economy.

Mexico is preparing to drop significant tariffs on Chinese imports, a proactive move to position Mexico in advance of the upcoming bilateral discussion.

Sheinbaum knows that right now for every deportation ICE executes, her economy is hit as remittances recede. Simultaneously, for every mile of border wall that is completed, the financial dependency model increases.  President Trump’s leverage in the upcoming bilateral trade negotiation against Mexico increases each day, week and month.

Claudia Sheinbaum is smartly focused on trying to get ahead of the issues, while Mark Carney ignores his vulnerability and is about to make Canada naked to the economic weaknesses created by Justin Trudeau.

CHINA POST – Mexico is preparing to raise tariffs on Chinese imports of automobiles, textiles and plastics, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, under a proposal expected to be part of the 2026 budget to be submitted to the nation’s Congress next month.

If confirmed, the increase would mark one of Mexico’s sharpest trade shifts in recent years. Officials in Washington have urged the move as part of US President Donald Trump’s push to build a “Fortress North America” and reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains.

Trump has been a long-time critic of what he calls trade “loopholes” in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement allowing Chinese goods to enter the US. During his election campaign last year, he railed against Chinese carmakers building plants in Mexico to export cars to the US.

Mexico’s imports from China exceeded US$51 billion last year, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the country’s total purchases abroad.

The rapid growth has turned Mexico into China’s top overseas market for vehicles, but has also left local manufacturers complaining of unfair competition from subsidised goods. The planned tariffs could also be extended to other Asian nations, although China remains the main focus. (read more)

Taken in context, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is prepping to be in alignment with the goals and objectives of President Trump. Meanwhile Canada is completely ignoring the issue of Chinese trade, and the loopholes that anger President Trump within the USMCA exploitation.

We’ll keep watching, but this context will unfold. Slowly at first, then suddenly, all at once, come spring ’26.