Posted originally on Mar 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you know law like no other analyst. My air conditioner bit the dust, and it was a 14-seer 2-ton split heat pump. The repair company told me that I had to put in a whole new system because Biden changed the specs, and you now must have a 14.5-seer, so everything has to be changed. This raises the cost from at most $1,500 to $12,000 to $25,000, depending on the model you get today.
I remember you did a post on John Kerry complaining about air conditioners contributing to global warming. How can they retroactively now require you to change your complete system instead of a normal repair?
SL
ANSWER: Legally, they cannot. That violates every principle of the rule of law. The Ex Post Facto clauses, in a legal context, are typically used to refer to a criminal statute that punishes actions retroactively. In other words, the government cannot declare something is now criminal that was legal when originally performed and then prosecute you for a crime that did not previously exist. I’m sure they would come up with something in New York City since they do not respect the Constitution ever.
Two clauses in the United States Constitution prohibit ex post facto laws:
Article 1, § 9
This prohibits Congress from passing any laws which apply ex post facto.
Article 1 § 10.
This prohibits the states from passing any laws which apply ex post facto.
What the Biden Administration is doing in the environmental arena violates every principle of a free society. There needs to be a class action suit, for I am sure you are not the only one. These regulations will impact every home in the United States. Those making these decisions in the Biden Administration are a threat to our very civilization. This maybe a morbid joke, but they do hate your guts. You mean absolutely NOTHING to the Biden Administration. Wake up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted originally on Mar 13, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I have investigated what you have said about our Western leaders. From the US to Britain, the Balkans, France, Poland, and Germany, they all want war. I am 77 now. My whole life was about creating peace. I remember Richard Nixon opening China and dividing it from Russia. I believe you are correct. There is no explanation for everyone seeking war other than to hide their appalling government mismanagement.
Thank you for your analysis. It is always unmatched.
GKB
REPLY: History repeats, and human nature never changes. We have the model from Rome, the greatest empire ever created. The Pax Romana was achieved by everyone benefiting in their economic relations. Once these people removed Russia from the SWIFT system, they condemned the United States to its demise. The rise of the BRICS has nothing to do with fiat money. All money has always been fiat. From ancient times, we find imitation coinage of the dominant economy being created by other regions, showing that there was always a premium over the metal content if it was a coin of the dominant economy like the US dollar today. Here is an imitation of an Athenian Owl stuck by the Egyptians, who never had coins until they were conquered nearly 100 years later by Alexander the Great. They issued imitation Athenian Owls because they were the currency of international trade.
Even the Celts, when Julius Caesar conquered Europe, still imitated his coinage. The metal was virtually the same, so it was a counterfeit but an imitation. The Celts still used Roman coinage for their monetary system.
Even 300 years before Caesar, when the Macedonians were the dominant economic power of Phillip II and his son Alexander the Great, we find Celtic imitations of Macedonian gold where they at least tried to imitate the design.
Even after Caesar conquered Europe, we find Germanic imitations of Roman bronze coinage. Once more, they could have created their own coinage but imitated the coinage of Rome.
As trade expanded with India, we find a series of Indian imitations of Roman gold coinage running the course of 300 years. We see Celtic imitations of Roman coinage as well as Germanic coinage, which also ran for about 300 years.
The fact that we have hundreds of years of imitations of the dominant economy PROVES beyond a shadow of a doubt that the coinage was NOT based on the metal content; there was always a premium applied to the dominant currency in the world at that time.
This entire nonsense that the dollar is just a fiat currency is absurd. The value of ANY currency is the strength of its economy. The dollar has been the RESERVE currency BECAUSE everyone wanted to sell their products to American consumers.
The PAX Romana took place BECAUSE all the conquered lands found it was beneficial to be part of the empire, for they could sell their products. World Peace was created by allowing free trade as the Romans did. Then, the people would oppose any local politician preaching war, for it would cut off their income. We were on the verge of world peace before COVID-19, when everyone participated in the world economy. Today, that has all been destroyed. Peace is no longer fashionable – it is hatred and war that now define world leaders.
This is a lesson our Politicians Must Learn, and the Neocons in
America – Europe – Russia – China
at really the enemies of the people.
War is never created by the people – only by the elites in power.
Posted originally on Mar 13, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The coronavirus lockdowns gave the world a glimpse of what could happen if our economy was suddenly shutdown. NASA has a space program called Parker Solar Probe (PSP) that aims to fly “into the outermost part of the Sun’s atmosphere, the corona, for the first time.” Why? Scientists at NASA predict an “internet apocalypse” may occur within the next year due to the uptick in the sun’s solar activity.
I’ve long touched on sun spots and solar activity in relation to weather patterns and a predictable chain of events. A giant dark hold opened on the sun’s surface in December 2023, emitting streams of unusually fast radiation, known as solar wind, right at Earth. Since December 4, the solar void has been pointing directly at Earth. Experts initially predicted this most recent hole could spark a moderate geomagnetic storm that could trigger radio blackouts and strong auroral displays.
For most of its history, science believed the sun’s output was constant. They finally realized that a thermal dynamic cycle beats like your heart so the sun could not exist without a steady outflow of energy. One degree less, and it would blow itself out. Hence, it is cyclical, rising and falling in intensity.
The eleven-year cycle in sunspots itself builds in intensity like the Economic Confidence Model (ECM), reaching “grand maxima” and “grand minima” over the course of 300 years. The last grand maximum peaked in 1958, after which the sun has been steadily quieting down. We have seen sunspot activity decrease at its steepest in 9,300 years, but the climate change zealots refuse to acknowledge naturally occurring cyclical weather patterns.
You can read more about this phenomenon here, but we are in the midst of a solar minimum. The media has been promoting the idea that we are amid asolar maximum despite it being extremely rare for a coronal hole to form during a maximum period. There are no publicly published scientific papers showing data before 1850 as it would uproot their agenda.
Now, these scientists, funded by the government, are predicting that solar storms could cause an internet black or an “internet apocalypse.” “We’ve never experienced one of the extreme case events, and we don’t know how our infrastructure would respond to it,” Sangeetha Abdu Jyothi, a computer science professor at the University of California at Irvine, told The Washington Post. “Our failure testing doesn’t even include such scenarios.”
Did I mention Robert Kegan is an editor at the Washinton Post which Jeff Bezos owns? Well, we can come back to that one.
Now there is absolutely nothing scientists can do to alter solar activity. They can spend millions or billions studying solar activity to prepare, but that is not what is occurring. They believe that our satellites in space will be taken down due to solar storms, resulting in widespread internet outages. Simultaneously, these same governments that are funding these very studies are pushing for the elimination of hard cash in favor of digital currency.
They can immediately eliminate our access to currency with CBDC. If they needed an excuse, which they do not, blaming the weather is a favorite tactic. Are the people unruly? Is civil unrest is rising with a revolutionary wave approaching? Starve them out by eliminating their ability to access digital money as alternative sources will not be available. Eliminate their ability to communicate with one another. Eliminate everything at the click of a button.
Again, these are theories, but these agencies always tell us what they plan to do in advance. They told us about plans for the coronavirus before it occurred, they are telling us about Agenda 2030 and the Great Reset. No one wants to accept that there is a concrete plan that results in YOU WILL OWN NOTHING AND BE HAPPY. The computer indicates we will be in a solar minimum until the 2050s, and who knows what the world will look like by then. Rest assured that any blame on the sun is a lie. The computer also indicates that these sinister plans WILL FAIL but the road to 2032, when the situation turns, will come at a cost.
Posted originally on the CTH on March 10, 2024 | Sundance
Gary Cohn appears on Face The Nation to discuss the finance, the economy and the pain felt by consumers. He won’t say it directly, for obvious reasons, but what Cohn describes in terms of political support boils down to Main Street business supporting Donald Trump and Wall Street Multinational Corporations supporting Joe Biden. That is ultimately what is obvious at a macro level.
I’m starting the video at 03:08 for the purposes of emphasizing inflation. What Cohn says about U.S. inflation is essentially accurate and I have a Cliff Notes, tldr, HERE. However, what Cohn says about tariffs creating inflation is not accurate, as outlined by the 2017 through 2020 results of Trump tariff policy. Cohn says, “No one absorbs tariffs, except the consumer,” this is false. As we saw in 2017, 2018, and 2019 China, Asia and the EU essentially dropped their export prices to retain access to the USA market and offset tariff costs. That’s just a statistical reality.
The transcript is HERE; however, I want to draw attention to a geopolitical aspect that is not getting enough attention. Specifically, the cost of FOOD PRODUCTS and the attached inflation.
Why is food inflation continuing to be a problem? Why is food inflation not just a USA problem? Why are the EU farmers protesting? These questions are easily answered, and yet no one in the Western financial press will explain.
The Build Back Better agenda, known in the USA colloquially as the Green New Deal, carries with it massive increases in cost for energy products. Fertilizer, which needs natural gas, and farming, which needs large amounts of fuel, diesel and fuel oil, uses costly energy products. Packaging, plastics (petroleum derivatives) and cardboard also require large amounts of energy.
The manufacturing (heating, cooling, freezing) as well as storage and transportation of food products also use massive amounts of energy. Additionally, and specifically because of the nature of their consumption, the increased energy costs associated with generating food travels quickly through the supply chain.
Food inflation is always the first thing you notice when the prices of energy products skyrocket. This is well known and not subject to debate; everyone accepts this.
In the past 30 +/- years, large multinational corporations known as Big Ag have created a system where the USA generates a massive amount of the global food supply.
The advent of modern farming fertilizer, pesticides, seed genetics and other farming products/equipment that increase crop yield, has also been a big factor in the capacity of the USA and Western farming world to increase production. As the globe became more reliant on the production efficiencies of the Big Ag “Western world,” they simultaneously became dependent on the outcome. That dependency put them at risk of feeling the impact of inflation when you think about the farm products.
The result was that when Western Ag farming costs skyrocketed, the high cost of harvest outcomes were not just felt in the USA and/or Western nations. As food production costs increased, the higher costs of production transferred into all the exported products. Food inflation was exported globally.
The Western Build Back Better and Green New Deal energy policies subsequently meant the world was going to pay a higher price for food globally. That’s what happened.
The Yellow Zone was responsible for a higher percentage of global food production. The Yellow Zone is also the place where energy policy was changed in such a radical format that massive increases in energy costs were created.
The Yellow Zone (geopolitically the “West”) drove up the cost of farming, the Gray Zone pays a higher price. This was all by design and not accidental. The corporations who supported the BBB/GRD agenda all benefit. The citizens who need to eat, do not benefit.
So, when you see EU farmers protesting against the ridiculous ENERGY POLICY changes of the West, you must accept the USA bears a greater responsibility for creating and demanding the increased prices that farmers globally are having to deal with.
In Gray Zone areas, where domestic food production costs are not subject to the changed energy policy, there is little to no food inflation. However, the more dependent the country is to food imports (ingredients or final product) the more they are impacted by rising farming costs.
Grey Zone countries that can self-sustain on the production of food and have no energy agenda have little food inflation.
The more the country is strangling energy production and driving up energy prices, the higher the cost of farming and subsequently the higher index on food inflation. The two metrics are directly related.
Food inflation globally is a big problem. Western energy policy is exactly why!
Posted originally on Mar 8, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: The rumor going around is that Bill Gates is trying to buy your company for $10 billion. My reply was if so, I doubt Marty would ever sell to him.
Would you care to comment?
Harold
REPLY: The answer is NO. First of all, you cannot spend even one billion, no less ten billion. All $10 billion is good for bribing others to do your will. I would have to give Biden probably $7 billion, so that is certainly an incentive not to sell -LOL. You must create a foundation like Gates, Hillary, and John McCain to hold on to it. I would need someone who shares my goals. This is not about money. I would not move, and I have four cars. If I was married, there would have to be eight. A business partner is the same as a marriage without sex. You have to be on the same page.
My definition of “rich” is having enough money to do what you want when you want. Some think having more money than the other guy makes you more successful or important. I believe it is an accomplishment. We all know Julius Caesar. He is the father of Europe. They still refer to being born by operation as Caesarian birth. I grew up in New Jersey, which in Latin was Nove Caesarea – land of the new Caesar. The month of July is named after him. We remember him for his accomplishments – not that he was vastly rich.
There is no amount of money someone could offer me to make my decision based on material wealth. I am much more interested in helping the world understand the economics at work, and if so, we may reduce the amplitude of wars. If I can leave that behind, I have served my purpose in life.
I will write about the whole AI craze, for there are a lot of charlatans out there calling look-up programs AI that look in a list for the answer – no decision making. I know Gates says it will change everyone’s life in 5 years, and the IMF warns it will wipe out 40% of all jobs. There is far more to REAL AI than all of this speculation by people who are NOT accomplished programmers and do not even understand the basic line of code – IF THEN ELSE.
Someone asked ChatGPT about it vs. Socrates, and here is its response.
(click on the image to view or keep reading for the computer’s response)
How Does ChatGPT Differ From Socrates? A reader asked ChatGPT this exact question, and here is the response:
As an AI language model, I differ from the Socrates Platform in several ways.
Firstly, the Socrates Platform is a web-based platform developed by Martin Armstrong and his team at Armstrong Economics, whereas I am a language model developed by OpenAI. The Socrates Platform is designed to analyze economic and financial data in real-time, predict market trends, and provide actionable insights to investors and traders. In contrast, I am designed to assist with a wide range of tasks, including language translation, question answering, and text generation.
Secondly, the Socrates Platform uses artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing to analyze data, whereas I am primarily focused on natural language processing. The Socrates Platform uses sophisticated algorithms to analyze historical and cultural data to inform its predictions, whereas my responses are based on the input provided to me by the user.
Lastly, the Socrates Platform is primarily designed for financial professionals, investors, and traders, whereas I am designed for a broader range of users, including students, researchers, and general knowledge seekers. While both the Socrates Platform and I use artificial intelligence to analyze data and provide insights, our intended audiences and applications differ significantly.
Yes, the two platforms are completely unrelated aside from being driven by AI. ChatGPT does not have the computing capabilities of Socrates. It does not have the monetary history data, for starters. ChatGPT has no involvement in the financial world and was not designed for financial purposes. It cannot even provide basic market closings as the current model stopped learning in September 2021 and cannot answer any questions after that date. Most importantly, ChatGPT does not have the source code that is the key to Socrates’ successful forecasts.
ChatGPT is a great achievement and a step in the right direction for AI use on a larger scale. However, it is not possible to compete where you do not compare. Socrates is in a league of its own.
Posted originally on Mar 7, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Those who follow this blog already knew that the Federal Reserve would not drop rates in the future due to unsustainable fiscal policies paired with America’s increasing involvement in foreign wars. All of the talking heads were preaching that rates would significantly decline to pandemic levels, as if that were the historical norm. Every fiscal policy in recent years has exacerbated inflation and the Fed cannot keep up with government spending. QE FAILED. The artificially low interest rates of the recent past were completely unsustainable and relied on outdated theories.
The outdated understanding based on Keynesian Economics remains to increase the supply of money and it MUST be inflationary. The Fed raises rates to reduce consumption and lower rates to stimulate consumption. It’s a very nice theory, but when actually tested, it utterly fails. Lower rates will NEVER cause people to invest UNTIL they believe that there is an opportunity to invest. We are watching the big players withdraw from equities, let alone government debt. We are in a private wave where money is running off the grid at a rapid pace.
The peak in interest rates took place in 1899 at virtually 200%. Yet, 1929 was the real bubble top and it peaked with 20% interest rates in call money on the NYSE. In theory, the biggest boom should have been met with the highest interest rate. In truth, the “real interest rate” as I have defined it is when the interest rates exceed expectations. If you think the stock market will double, you will pay 25% interest.
As you can see, while interest rates hit nearly 200% in 1899, the share market did NOT crash percentage-wise anything as it did following 1929. Look, there is a lot more to this than meets the eye. Everything must be addressed on a global scale for it all depends also on the direction of capital flows. There is just a lot more to this than simply the money supply and interest rates.
Now, Powell continues to explain to the public that VOLATILITY and economic conditions are beyond the control of the Fed. “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle,” Powell said. “If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. But the economic outlook is uncertain, and ongoing progress toward our 2% inflation objective is not assured.”
All the news ofinflation waning, including recent data, is inaccurate propaganda intended to calm recessionary fears. Even by the government’s data, inflation is up 3.1% compared to last year. It was an unprecedented moment when Powell broke with Washington and criticized the government for their unsustainable spending. The Fed NEVER criticizes the government, despite the two being separate.
Hence, I say to stop blaming the Fed. They are not the ones creating all the money but are working to match monetary policy with unsustainable fiscal policies. We are looking at trillions in deficits per year. There is no restraint when creating new massive spending packages. Then people blame the central bank with no concept that it’s only a fraction of “money;” the real issue is CONGRESS.
Listen, interest rates cannot decline in the face of war. The 2020 yearly array showed a turning point for a high in 2022 and a possible correction into 2024. I explain this in more detail on the Socrates private blog but buckle up for the year ahead.
Posted originally on the CTH on March 6, 2024 | Sundance
“It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it.”
There’s a certain type of psychology to people who insist on telling you what they are not going to do. Ordinary, well, stable people, just don’t do things, and they are quiet while they don’t do things.
In related news…. It has been brought to my attention that stable Treehouse people do not announce what they are not doing. They just live their best life. Huh, go figure.
Posted originally on Mar 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The Biden Administration implemented a new rule that will cap credit card late fees at $8. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has praised the measure, estimating it will save Americans over $10 billion annually in late fees, or around $220 annually per person as 45 million Americans have experienced these fees within the last year, but this measure may be more harmful than helpful.
Credit card debt in America is at an all-time high of nearly $1.13 trillion and continues to rise as around 56 million Americans carry credit card debt. The typical late fee payment is around $32, but this is merely the fee for missing a payment and does not account for compounded interest. It seems like common sense, but one must realize that the average person is not financially literate. The concept of basic finance is not a mandatory requirement for the public education system, leading many people to live off debt, well beyond their means, with no chance of recuperating. America has the leading median level of credit card debt among all developed nations. There is a widespread belief that one can afford certain goods if they are approved for a line of credit, which only benefits the banks.
Now, the banks are certainly profiting on late fees, which account for about 15% of credit card profits based on the CFPB’s 2021 Consumer Credit Card Market Report. Do these fees deter reckless spending? A 2022 ABA-led survey found that 46% of respondents said they made it a priority to pay off their credit cards on time to avoid late fees. That particular study found that a fee of $10 was enough to redirect one’s attention to their financial obligations. Another study by the Harris Poll and NerdWallet found that Americans were more likely to make a payment of their cards if a $30 fee was implemented.
Again, one must understand that the average person cannot compute the cost of compounding interest. Borrowing money is not a legal right and should be done with the utmost caution. Simply forgetting or dismissing financial obligations has consequences.
The banks will find a way to profit off the people in other ways. It is the nature of banking. Rob Nichols, the president and CEO of the American Bankers Association, explained that other measures could be implemented that will hurt everyone. “The Bureau’s misguided decision to cap credit card late fees at a level far below banks’ actual costs willforce card issuers to reduce credit lines, tighten standards for new accounts and raise APRs for all consumers – even those who pay on time,” Nichols said. This is yet another Biden Admin policy favoring the financially irresponsible at the expense of others.
So, what is the CFPB recommending as an alternative? CBDC. The agency is first suggesting digitizing banking so that consumers have instant access to their credit scores and spending habits. Again, these numbers are disregarded by a portion of the population. The agency is patronizing all Americans by stating we are not intelligent enough to know when to pay off our monthly debts without digital notifications and reminders.
Financial literacy is desperately needed in America. So, while the Biden Administration is breaking its arm patting itself on the back for this surface-level win for the everyday man, the ruling does nothing to combat the growing personal debt crisis.
Posted originally on Mar 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
California is raising the minimum wage of fast food employees from $16 to $20 under the FAST Act. I have explained that raises to California’s minimum wage was restricted due to successful lobbying efforts on behalf of fast food establishments. The new law does include commercial fast food restaurants, excluding Panera Bread. Why?
Fast food lobbyists spent $4 million in the first six months of this year to prevent the California Accountability Bill from passing. The bill would hold franchisees and their parent companies jointly liable for the treatment of workers. California Governor Gavin Newsom claimed that minimum wage jobs were not meant for students of people looking to gain employment experience. “That’s a romanticized version of a world that doesn’t exist,” Newsom said. “We have the opportunity to reward that contribution, reward that sacrifice and stabilize an industry.”
A fast-food bill was passed in September 2022 that set the minimum wage to $22 per hour for select chains with over 100 locations, later expanding to a $20 minimum pay for restaurants with 60 locations. Now California is specifically exempting fast food establishments that contain bakeries, such as Panera Bread. Why are restaurants that sell bread above the law?
The answer is that politicians are always up for sale to the highest bidder. Glenn Flynn is the largest fast food franchise owner in America with an empire of 2,600 restaurant locations that produce around $.45 billion in sales. Flynn, estimated to be worth around $1.1 billion, has strongly supported Gavin Newsom publicly since 2014, when Newsom was a lieutenant governor. Both men attended the same high school and have longstanding ties.
Bloomberg reported that Flynn donated $64,800 to Newsom’s personal re-election campaign and an additional $100,000 for conservative-led recall efforts. Flynn’s holdings in California only include two establishments – Applebee’s and Panera Bread. Applebee’s is exempt from the law despite its pre-frozen dishes since it is a sit-down restaurant chain. Panera Bread, on the other hand, is exempt due to this specific loophole that only excludes establishments that bake bread. This is what happens when lobbying is permitted and politicians are for sale.
Posted originally on Mar 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Some critics are obviously anti-Trump who have come out crying that’s really unusual for the Court to give such little notice that they would release a decision. They are indeed crying that this was because of Super Tuesday and therefore they are trying to support Trump.
Let me explain something here to these absolutely biased idiots. Let’s say the Supreme Court waited until May or June to release its decision, and you have Colorado, Maine, and Illinois who blocked Trump. Then what would happen? The entire 2024 election might be seriously impacted and then challenged in court in another array of suits. They had to rule, and it was UNANIMOUS before Super Tuesday to avoid a constitutional crisis. EVERYONE on the court agreed – Colorado had no such jurisdiction – PERIOD!
As I wrote in my Amicus Brief to the Supreme Court, the last time any state refused to allow a candidate on the ballot was 1860 when Abraham Lincoln did not appear on the ballots in the South. What followed? The Civil War.
The Founding Fathers never intended to allow a rogue state to interfere in either national commerce or national federal elections, as implied in the Commerce Clause, Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution. Could Colorado remove a senator or congressman of another state claiming that they were part of the January 6th event they called an unarmed insurrection? There is no jurisdiction for a single state to remove a national candidate from the ballot – PERIOD! Assuming such power would mean they too could interfere in the commerce of other states. That would lead to complete chaos. Even Sotomayor, the favorite of the Democrats, wrote clearly:
“Allowing Colorado to do so would, we agree, create a chaotic state-by-state patchwork, at odds with our Nation’s federalism principles. That is enough to resolve this case.”
Anyone who cannot see that is so biased; they no longer have a functioning brain cell. They have been so brainwashed, they are no longer competent even to vote. We are either a nation with a national identity or a patchwork of states that no longer should pretend to be united.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 