Tag Archives: BRICS

Dec 7 2023

Should Argentina Peg its Currency to the Dollar?


Posted originally on Dec 6, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

Monetary System 2

QUESTION: What about Argentina willing to peg pesos to USD? THANKS for all you are doing for us! ALL THE BEST TO YOU AND FAMILY

TD

ANSWER: First and foremost, what collapsed Bretton Woods and the gold standard was persistent deficit spending. They fixed the price of gold to $35 but then spent recklessly every year. you CANNOT have a fixed exchange rate, a pegged exchange rate, or any sort of a gold standard as long as you retain a Marxist/Socialist agenda where you spend more than you have.

In addition, any Pegging of a currency is significantly different than a Fixed Exchange Rate. Under a Fixed Exchange Rate, the main purpose is to facilitate trade. However, you are not expressly subordinating your economy to the economic trend of everyone else in the system. Each nation is still independent, and if their balance of payments falls out of line, then they alone have a monetary crisis.

Henry VIII Debased Groats

Sir Thomas Gresham was the agent for the English Crown in Amsterdam, the Wall Street of Europe at that time. Henry VIII was debasing the currency, and nobody wanted to lend money to him, fearing that what they would be repaid with was debased. Hence, Gresham’s law.

Pegging to the dollar Pegged

A Pegged currency is far worse for the host currency’s economic conditions are imported. If Argentina pegs to the USD, then raising or lowering interest rates by the Fed and the boom-bust business cycle are automatically exported to Argentina. It would be better to peg to a basket of currencies that would be a hybrid system closer to a fixed currency regime for trade.

Napoleon Single Currency 1024x675
970 Nero

Napoleon had actually summoned the best minds and talents from all over Europe into his service. His court was deliberately filled with able men from all over Europe: Dutch, German, Italian, and even Polish. These foreigners worked in the highest offices of his imperial civil service – not exclusively French.

It was Napoleon who created the first single currency in Europe following the Roman Empire. He standardized the weight of the coins so that 40 francs equaled 40 Lire in Italy and 320 Reales in Spain. This was really Napoleon’s idea of resurrecting the Roman empire. Please take note of his coinage. He is pictured wearing a laurel wreath as a Roman emperor. He was far more than just a general. The new movie was interesting, but they overlooked his economic decisions, which were decades ahead of anyone else in Europe.

Latin Monetary Union

The unification of Europe was the accomplishment of Julius Caesar. However, it was Napoleon who standardized the monetary system post-Rome after the Dark Age, which became the inspiration for the Latin Monetary Union by 1865 and later the Gold Standard post World War II.

EuropeanGoldCoinage 1803 1947 R

Even the United States’ $5 gold coinage was equivalent to the standardization of world coinage during the 19th century.

Nov 29 2023

New York Loses $12 Million Per Day Due to Shoplifting


Posted originally on Nov 28, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

NYC Christmas

Gov. Kathy Hochul is a menace who is setting fire to what remains of the once beloved state of New York. Hochul is responsible for rule 2.13 and is one of the most obnoxious vaccine supporters on the world stage. Hochul is supported by the same people who donated to Andrew Cuomo, and she is full support of the Build Back Better agenda.

That is why she is passively allowing the state to burn. The light on crime policies has led to a drastic uptick in crime across the state. Both Republicans and Democrats attempted to pass a bill to curb theft but Hochul shot it down, stating the requested $35 million was not in the budget. Theft in NY has increased by 64% over the past four years.

In the city, Eric Adams recently declared that funding to the police department would diminish due to recent budget cuts. It is fair to say that they deliberately want to make the state a hostile environment as they are effectively warding off tourism and business development.

NYC HELP

Recent data suggests that New York as a whole lost $4.4 billion in 2022 due to organized retail theft. This is not limited to NYC. Places like Syracuse reported a 55% rise in shoplifting over the past two years. “That number is likely higher because businesses often don’t report it — but they do continue to express concerns,” Syracuse Police Chief Joe Cecile said. One pharmacy in Syracuse lost a quarter-million alone due to theft. Store owners have been seriously assaulted or killed. Yet, Hochul believes there should be harsher penalties for the unvaccinated than for criminals.

So thieves are stealing over $12 million daily from New York retailers. The budget for a preventative organization (not that it is the solution) would be equivalent to a mere three days of theft. Thousands of people and their tax dollars have already fled the state due to their poor policies. The businesses are following, and what will be left? Government-run grocers and 15-minute cities? That is the ultimate goal behind allowing this type of crime to occur without punishment.

Nov 25 2023

The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters #791


Posted originally on Rumble By The Podcast of the Lotus Eaters On: Nov 23, 7:55 am EST

Nov 25 2023

The Shift to the Middle is Coming


Posted originally on Nov 24, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

Netherlands Dutch_Election

All the media is so anti-common sense that anyone who dares to take any contrary view is called “FAR RIGHT” as if they are Nazis. Never in all my years have I ever witnessed the mainstream media so FAR LEFT that they are destroying the very foundation of civilization, and they do not care. The position MUST be their view, and anything to the contrary is evil. This is NOT a free society, nor is this how civilizations are maintained. When you divide the nation in such a manner and impose your will by sheer dictatorship, the end is near.

TIME Magazine characterized the Dutch election as a “FAR RIGHT” victory. They want to exit the EU and retake their sovereignty. They are flooded with immigrants, and crime has soared all because Merkel opened the borders unilaterally. The EU was never asked to vote on this policy – NEVER. But if you dare object, you are the dangerous and evil FAR RIGHT. Friends there will not allow their daughter to walk to the bus station for fear she will be raped.

What the EU has done to the Dutch farmers is insane, and they are so braindead they fail to understand that the planet goes through cycles and reducing food production as we head into solar minimum risks food shortages and rising disease as well as starvation. But if you oppose that, you are now the evil FAR RIGHT. As they told the people, and they agreed, the Netherlands “has been seriously weakened due the ongoing asylum tsunami and mass immigration.” They also pledged to stop sending aid to Ukraine. Their country is being transformed into an Islamic State, and they called for a ban on the Quran and for shutting down mosques.  France is generally projected to be an Islamic nation within 40 years. Our computer shows that can happen as soon as 2032, thanks to an 8:1 birth rate in favor of Muslims. But if you want to retain Europe as a Christian continent, you are the dangerous evil FAR RIGHT.

The violence has already begun, from attempts to burn down Christian churches in Southern Europe to killing a 16-year-old boy, stabbing him to death, and injuring 17 others. The assailants declared, “We are here to stab white people’ before the rampage, according to a report. ” Mobs in Eastern Pakistan target Christian churches. In Jerusalem, extremist Jews were chanting, “Death to Arabs … Death to Christians.” Then, in Europe, there has been a surge in Quran burning in response to the influx of Muslims. We are looking at the beginning of a religious war brewing everywhere. This contributes to our Civil Unrest Model, which turned up here in 2023.

Argentina_election_results_Milei_wins 11 20 23

CNN also called Javier Milei the “FAR RIGHT” who won Argentina’s presidential elections. They reported that was “wrenching his country to the right with a bombastic anti-establishment campaign” and said that he was comparable to Donald Trump. They admitted that this was against the backdrop of one of the “world’s highest inflation rates.” Argentina once was the economic star until it turned left. But if it tries to improve the economy, it is the dangerous evil FAR RIGHT.

AfD_wins 6 26 23

In Bavaria, the press also reported that “FAR-RIGHT” Afd won back in June. So, unless you are for lockdowns, the war against Russia, high inflation, and the lowering of our living standards, then you are one of those loathful, FAR-RIGHT, dangerous people who must be eradicated and suppressed.

Anyone who wants to return just to normal life is now disgusting FAR-RIGHT. You have to support World War III, high taxes, end of lifestyle for climate change, and if you do not tell your son in 1st grade that maybe he is really a girl then you are guilty of child abuse, and your children should be taken from you by force.

Civilization Empires Rise Fall Armstrong

Any suggestion that we should return to when there was an immigration requirement and when transgender was a private decision not celebrated on a beer can, and we understood that Mother Nature had cycles all by herself and warming periods marked the rise in civilization and cold periods population declines and nations contracted, that is no longer middle ground; it is FAR RIGHT.

During the Panic of 1869, when they were dragging the bankers out and hanging them, which was the first BLACK FRIDAY, I fear when this all starts to come unglued after 2024, this time they will be dragging journalists out to the streets and hanging them for destroying civilization where both sides are supposed to co-exist.

The 2024 Elections

We will be issuing this special report in December.

Nov 24 2023

Black Friday – A Key Weekend for Retailers


Posted originally on Nov 24, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 

Recession

Retailers have been preparing for Black Friday and Cyber Monday all year. The tradition of post-Thanksgiving shopping has spread internationally with companies throughout the world promoting special sales. The National Federation of Retailers in America predicts that 2023 will be one of the busiest shopping holidays in the nation’s history.

Around 182 million shoppers are expected to make purchases from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, marking a 15.7 million uptick from 2022. This also marks the highest estimate since the organization began compiling data in 2017. Despite inflation, 61% of 8,424 respondents to a poll said the deals presented are too good to pass on.

The bulk of spending is expected to occur on Black Friday with 130.7 million participants, followed by Cyber Monday which is expected to attract 71.1 million shoppers. Half of shoppers will be searching for presents for the upcoming holidays. In total, retail spending in November and December will reach up to $966.6 billion.

“The Thanksgiving holiday weekend marks some of the busiest shopping days of the year, as consumers enjoy the tradition of shopping for the perfect gifts for friends and loved ones,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers have been preparing for months for this occasion. They are stocked and ready to help customers find the gifts and other items they want at great prices during the entire holiday season.”

Although consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of GDP, the majority of Americans are living off of credit due to record inflation. So while people are spending during this 5-day holiday in anticipation of tomorrow’s price being higher, consumer spending at this point in time merely adds to the private debt crisis sweeping the nation.

Nov 9 2023

Saving the Best for Last Re-Posted Nov 9, 2023 By Martin Armstrong  


2023_11_08_20_56_39_Russia_s_jamming_of_US_provided_rocket_systems_complicates_Ukraine_s_war_effort_

QUESTION: You said Ukraine never shot down 6 of Russia’s unstoppable hypersonic weapons. Do you think that was all propaganda?

SH

HIMARK

ANSWER: Absolutely. Neither the US nor Russia will commit their most critical weapons to Ukraine. Why? Because it reveals your best car and allows the opposition to gather intelligence to defeat them. Look at the HIMARS rockets that were going to change the game. Russia jammed its guidance systems that rely on GPS. The US would NEVER have given Ukraine our top shelf. That would be like playing poker and showing your hand before the betting begins.

You save the Best for Last

Nov 5 2023

Interview: Gold and the Dollar will Rise Together Re-Posted Nov 5, 2023 By Martin Armstrong 


Watch the video above or click here to watch my latest interview with Goldseek Radio.

Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, outlines his gold market projections in lieu of unraveling geopolitical conditions.

Armstrong says, “You have a lot of uncertainty and confusing trends developing. When this materializes in people understanding what’s happening…the dollar and gold would go up together. Because you are looking at a flight of capital. Some people want to buy gold, some people want to get out of Europe, etc. Not everybody does the same thing. The two trends will come together. That’s what our computer is projecting, and it’s happened many times in history.”

– Epic gold breakout ahead!
– Convergence of economic themes – recession next year and escalating conflicts?
– Comments on crude oil.
– On the cusp of WWIII by 2025?
– How to foment de-escalation within the ranks of the power-hungry elite.
– Might societal decay accelerate?
– Tangible assets are key to surviving collapse.
– 90% silver coins remain an ideal survival investment.

Oct 9 2023

Putin on Prigozhin’s Death


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Oct 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death remains unresolved. How did his plane go down? Some had said it was a deliberate missile attack. President Vladimir Putin believes someone onboard detonated hand grenades. Prigozhin was flying to St Petersburg with 10 additional people composed of three crew members and four bodyguards.

“There was no external impact on the plane – this is already an established fact,” Putin said to dispel rumors of a missile attack. “Fragments of hand grenades were found in the bodies of those killed in the crash,” Putin told a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. No additional details have been released.

Furthermore, Putin said he was displeased with the investigation as they did not drug test the bodies or what was left of them. Ten billion in cash and five kilos of cocaine were found in Wagner’s office headquarters. Why avoid this important aspect of the autopsy?

Russia remains adamant that it had no involvement. We may never know the true details surrounding Prigozhin’s final moments.

Interestingly, news that Prigozhin was working with Chinese companies for satellite imagery was revealed on the same day. The Wagner Group signed a contract in November 2022 with China for the use of two satellites for spying. Beijing Yunze Technology Co Ltd, owned by Chang Guang Satellite Technology (CGST) to Nika-Fru, received $30 million for the two satellites. Wagner called upon the company for images of Moscow in May 2023, before the attempted capitol siege. So would the Russian government have been aware of this contact? The Chinese company may not have known about the mutiny that was going to take place, and Russia certainly was unaware. Another layer into the mysterious death of Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Oct 4 2023

A Strong Possibility Twitter Will IPO and Go Public Again, Here’s Why


Posted originally on the CTH on October 3, 2023 | Sundance 

I wasn’t going to write about this, but so many requests and contacts have come in, and considering that my background conversations with people are leading to actionable positioning, that I feel it is only fair to share publicly what I am analyzing privately.

The predicate for all assumptions is several fold: {Go Deep One} and {Go Deep Two}. Most of the financial groundwork for analysis already exists. In summary, Elon paid $44 billion for the platform. Current valuations are around $15 billion.  Current debt service is $1.5 billion/yr (roughly $100m/mo).  Current expenses include $100m/yr AWS, $100m/yr Goog cloud (both contracts), +payroll and misc.

Approximately 9 months ago, Musk had $1 billion in cash reserve for Twitter.  The burn rate deficit was roughly $100m/month. That put timeline estimates for an inflection point on/around October 2023.  It is now October 2023.

Approximately a week ago, Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino made a bold statement.  Yaccarino stated that from her review of the current status, Twitter would start to turn a profit in the first quarter of 2024 {link}.  However, with $100 million per month in debt service alone, this statement seemed too far of a stretch.  At pre-musk levels of revenue, maybe; but that $1.5 billion debt service is a heavy nut to carry.

Timing – Remember, it’s October.  Last Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave special regulatory approval to Bill Ackman’s firm, Pershing Square (hedge fund), for a new investment vessel called SPARC, whose purpose is to invest in private companies in order to take them public.  As noted by CNBC, “In a SPARC, investors will know what company the financing vehicle would be used to merge with before they have to pledge their investments.”  The financial mechanism avoids some of the issues with typical IPO’s.

•It’s October, inflection time.  •Yaccarino says a strategy is underway for profitability in Q1 2024.  •Ackman gets SPARC approval, and then suddenly:

[…] “The answer is I have a lot of respect for Musk. I think Twitter is a really important platform,” Ackman told CNBC. “I think he’s made tremendous improvements to the platform, and I think it’s a unique, very difficult-to-disrupt, kind of asset and one that could grow.” 

[…] Though Musk hasn’t expressed any interest in working with Ackman to take X public, and despite the $13 billion in debt tacked to the company, Ackman has worked out a loose plan to make it happen, if Musk were interested. 

“What’s interesting here is we could commit $2 billion to a transaction, set the rights price to $121 million, set it at $100 a share and announce a transaction,” he said. 

“And then we tell the story and then the rights holders have a chance to decide whether to invest. As long as the rights have positive value, they’re all going to get exercised, and the IPO raises $13 billion.” (read more)

The heavy nut disappears.

Investors roll the debt into discounted shares of stock.  If Ackman can generate a $17-$20 billion outcome for Twitter, Musk nets $5b and retains 20-25% of shares.  Yaccarino gets well compensated.  It’s a win/win/win.

Critics would say the IPO would mean Musk compromising on the free speech commitment.  However, in reality Musk has already reinstalled many of the control mechanisms of the previous “safety council,” along with the “freedom of speech, not freedom of reach” outlook.  Musk and Yaccarino have also partnered with the Global Disinformation Index.

The compromises are already baked into the platform, and seemingly have been since Yaccarino became CEO.  The 2024 election is next year, and influence is a lucrative business.

Sep 30 2023

Frances Fox Piven vs. Milton Friedman, Thomas Sowell (Video 1980)


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized R-Posted Sep 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong