Tag Archives: Cycle of war

Dec 19 2022

Panic Cycle & the Deep State


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted Dec 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Once more I am asking:
In practical terms, when a Panic Cycle appears, which are the factors that will help us to determine if the movement will be up or down please?
Thank you for answering.
SM

QUESTION #2: Your Panic Cycle is remarkable and your forecast on Ukraine before 2014 warrants putting you on the front page of every newspaper. Do you think the fact that ________ goes out of its way to find people who will say what your model has and never refer to you as being part of the whole disinformation game? I tend to trust them less and less for never crediting your computer even once as part of the whole cancel culture. What is your view on this silence?

ANSWER: A Panic Cycle, more often than not, can be an outside reversal meaning it can penetrate the previous low, turn around, and penetrate the previous high. It can also be a huge move in one direction. They tend to be events that are a surprise typically engulfed in some news. It is hard to come up with the fundamentals well in advance. But the computer was picking up the 2008 crash as far back as 1999. I took this array from our old site off of the Wayback machine.

We published the computer forecast in 2013 that had pinpointed Ukraine as the place where World War III would begin. That was one year before the 2014 revolution. The ONLY people to call for an interview on that forecast was RT from Russia. That says a lot. No one social media site nor even one mainstream news outlet ever bothered to can to ask how could this computer do that.

It should be obvious as we move into a Panic Cycle. If a market is rising, be on guard and turn to the Weekly and Monthly levels to see if there will be a big crash or an abrupt breakout. Trying to explain that 2007-2009 would be a major crash was rather simple as you got closer.  The very day of the high in the ECM was the precise day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index.  The Panic Cycle Target of 2010.29 was the precise day that Greece applied for emergency loans from the IMF. It should have been obvious going into that from 2002 that it would have been a crash.

Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle can be an OUTSIDE REVERSAL meaning it can make a new low and high during the same timing interval. Here is Weekly gold. There the Panic Cycle for the week of 04/18/22 was a high as well as a big move in one direction. Note that the top Composite or aggregate was a turning point. This helped to define that it would be a high since the market was rallying into it. Take note that the Directional Change target for the Week of 05/16 produced the low also because it coincided with the target for a turning point on the top line. Note that the next Directional Change was 06/06/22 and that was the highest closing with the next week being an outside reversal to the downside.

Insofar as to why other sites refuse to report the success of Socrates or the mainstream press, a lot of people write in asking if the same site ignores our forecasts and will go out of their way to tout someone else are really part of the undercover proxy war of the government against the free press. I cannot confirm or deny that view, but indeed a lot of people write in question if they are the same thing that is now being exposed with the corruption at Twitter and the government-controlled Wikipedia. Some emails have pointed out that they jump on claiming this breakthrough in cold fusion, but refuse to report on how our computer has projected so many things years ahead of time and could save the world if you got rid of the corrupt politicians and deep state.

As I have explained, the Constitution is a NEGATIVE restraint upon exclusive government. This is how the government has been using social media and mainstream media to cancel people, and ignore others, doing what would be unconstitutional if the Deep State did it directly. So you may be right. If they go out of their way to find someone else, perhaps they too are getting their orders from Washington DC. Guess we need Musk to buy them out too.

The computer had targeted 2014 for the start of the war. This is me outlining that 3 years in advance at the 2011 World Economic Conference. Some people judge various sites and newspapers that constantly ignore reporting on any of these forecasts as really just part of the Deep State no matter what they pretend to be. After what Musk has exposed, you have to question any of them these days.

Dec 19 2022

They Never Teach the Truth


Armstrong Economics Blog/History Re-Posted Dec 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I recently graduated ________________ with a degree in history. I just wanted to let you know that nowhere was there ever a discussion that FDR deliberately allowed Pearl Harbor to take place to force the Americans into a world war. I verified independently what you said about FDR. To my total shock, you are 100% correct. That leaves me wondering if what is being taught is indeed just propaganda..

Thank you for all you do. You are an amazing source.

CM

ANSWER: Let me explain something. To write the Greatest Bull Market in History back in 1986, I published my sources with newspaper clippings and researched everything because history is indeed written by the victor. When I was in school, I had to read The Great Crash by John Kenneth Galbraith (1908-2006). Nowhere in there did he EVER criticize the government because he was a left-wing socialist in love with Marx as most academics seem to be.

I was in London and would often rummage around the antique bookstores near the British Museum. I found a copy of Herbert Hoover’s memoirs. It changed my life. It was there that I read about the sovereign debt defaults of 1931. Hoover made a serious mistake. Many blamed him for the Great Depression so he did not want to appear to be making money from it. So his deal was that nobody could make money from the book. They published, I believe, only 500 copies. It was extremely rare. I would discuss what he wrote at institutional seminars I used to do exclusively below 1985. That led to an onslaught of calls to the Hoover Foundation asking for the book. I spoke to them and they said – Oh you’re the guy. I said yes. I was trying to get them to republish the work. Today, you can buy republished editions.

I learned the hard way – never trust what they teach in school. All the research I have done has been on my own. That’s why when I wrote the Great Bull Market in History, I tried to create a “feel” for how I did my research reading all the daily newspapers trying to recreate the experience as if you were there back then. Understanding the truth is critical.

Roosevelt was inflicting embargos on the Japanese, freezing their money, and cutting them off from all energy, and when they turned to buy fuel from other nations, Roosevelt threatened to blockade their ships. Is it any wonder why the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor to eliminate the US fleet after the treats of an embargo?

What we are doing to Russia is the exactly same way Roosevelt treated the Japanese. There will be only one resolution – World War III. I do not believe that those in Washington and Brussels are this stupid. This is DELIBERATE and they are trying to provoke Russia to attack as did the Japanese and they claim we wear the white hats.

Even the official senate investigation into Pearl Harbor became necessary because of “Rumors even circulated that President Franklin Roosevelt, determined to draw the nation into war, baited Japan with an unguarded harbor.” 

Just like the weapons of mass destruction that never existed in Iraq, or Vietnam that never attacked us, or the sinking of the Lusitania because we were secretly sending arms to Britain after swearing we were neutral when it comes to war – the people are NEVER told the truth.

Dec 18 2022

The Tax of ETFs


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Dec 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Interactive Brokers has published a specific list of what is taxable and what is not. If your brokerage house does not understand that ALL ETFs are not taxable, then you really have to find another broke.

Dec 14 2022

Real Estate


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Dec 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just want to congratulate you on creating Socrates. I am a real estate aficionado and Socrates has beaten the Case-Shiller Index which peaked in June of 2022 and even the Redfin Index which peaked in May 2022. Socrates peaked at a high in December 2021 ahead of everyone. Your model has shown a 34% drop into October where everyone is saying a 20% drop by the end of next year is likely. I just wanted to write because you and Socrates have beaten everyone in the real estate forecasting business and you do not even make that a big deal. Socrates is amazing.

I just wanted to share that because you do not even bother pounding your chest about real estate.

Thank you so much

LR

REPLY: Socrates is forecasting so many aspects of the world economy I do not have the time to pound my chest and if I did, I would probably end up in the hospital for it gets so many things right. It covers a fair sampling of real estate around the world and I do know we have many major real estate companies tuning in. Thank you for your comment. I have not had the time to look at either of those two indices as of yet.

Dec 13 2022

What investment would have produced 4,414% Gain since 1932?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Traders Re-Posted Dec 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Imagine if you could have bought a loaf of bread in 1932 for 7 cents. That 7 cents would be $3.09 today would be a gain of 4,414%. Of course, you could not even freeze it that long. That is also the problem with many who sell investments. Gold was $20.67 in 1932 so that has been a gain of 8990%. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrials bottomed in 1932 at 40.56. That has been a gain of 83,992%.

In 1955, the Dreyfus Fund was established by a New York stockbroker named Jack J. Dreyfus, Jr. (1913–2009)  It was Dreyfus who acquired the open-end Nesbett Fund, which had $2.3 million in assets.  This ambitious stockbroker renamed the fund bestowing his own family name upon it which would become a household word in the decades ahead.  By year end, the assets grew to $5.6 million as 1955 drew to a close.  The best decision Dreyfus made was to buy 400 shares of an unlisted stock.  That “sleeper” stock was Polaroid which he bought for $31 7/8.  Dreyfus would watch this single purchase rise to $6,372 per share – not counting splits – in the years ahead.  This outstanding performance almost single-handedly led to the mutual fund boom in the 1960s.

Sometimes a new technology paves the way for something that changes the game.

Dec 9 2022

Real Estate Down & Dirty


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Dec 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I want to thank you for Socrates. It picked the turn in the real estate in January amazingly. Do you see the high-end and regional divergences continuing?

WH

ANSWER: Yes. The Directional Change for 2021 was spot on. Our index began declining in January 2022 anticipating the first rate hike on March 17, 2022, by a quarter point. We would expect lower prices into 2023 and this should be the typical 2-year reaction low. It appears that post-2023, we would begin to see the shift where private assets will start to trade at a premium to the public assets of the government. The spread between government and private will decline as was the case during the Great Depression as countries began to default on their debt.

Dec 8 2022

Yellen Direct IRS to Audit Everyone for $600 Transactions Anyway


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Dec 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I really do have to wonder if my dog is smarter than most Americans who seem to have just lost their minds. My dog makes connections, anticipates what I will do, and studies my habits to predict and respond. I never knew a dog was really smart. She has learned numerous words and I have had to even spell certain words for she will respond if she hears the word. Dogs are indeed far more intelligent than I ever expected. Various studies show a dog is typically as intelligent as a two-year-old human. I can point in the sky at an airplane and she looks up. Not even a chimpanzee does that, or apparently most Americans. If you point to evidence they will not look.

The majority of Americans just listen to the propaganda, never questions anything, and assume the government is always telling them the truth because they care. Janet Yellen tried to get Congress to pass a formal act that banks and everyone had to report on Americans for every $600 transaction. Congress refused and her story was they were after the evil super-rich. The problem, the rich really are not selling stuff on eBay, using cash apps for side deals. That is the realm of the young and lower income.

So after the Biden Administration lost that battle, they simply told the IRS to do it on their own. Any transaction online over $600 is not subject to audit and you will find out the real reason they hired 87,000 armed IRS agents. You certainly do not need 87,000 IRS Agents to hunt down the 735 billionaires in the United States. They outright lie to your face, and many cheer.

People will NEVER wake up it seems. I have known politicians who actually believe that EVERYTHING belongs to the state, they decide on how much you are allowed to keep. They must have sipped history class for virtually EVERY Revolution in history was inspired by taxes. Even the famous line from Shakespeare “the first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers” actually refers to the king’s prosecutors for private people had not right to a lawyer. It was all about a revolution and the “lawyers” were confiscating people’s houses for their inability to pay taxes.

The American Revolution was also sparked by taxation. Remember the French Revolution and the slogan they attributed to the King’s wife – let them eat cake was also all about taxes and oppression

Dec 7 2022

Futility of Price Controls


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Dec 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT FROM HUNGARY: Dear Marty,
You were correct again. Price controls do not work in the long run. The Hungarian government introduced a price cap on gasoline and diesel a few months ago, but a few hours ago this evening they had to let it go(they “tried everything in their power to help but the damn bureaucrats in Brussels who voted for the sanctions”.etc etc.).

The holiday season, panic buying, no gas another nail into the trust in our government’s coffin.
Marty these people really have no clue what the hell they’re doing. We have several food products that also have price controls: Wheat, sugar, eggs, etc. And interestingly supermarkets simply stop selling them or they sell brown sugar (no price control) instead of white sugar (price controlled, the maximum amount you can purchase in one go is 3kg i believe). When will they learn (not admit) or at least stop blaming others for their own brain-dead decisions?

I honestly hope that whatever the hell comes after 2032 will be better than this nonsense.
Thanks for all you do Marty. Keep up the fight, and get some well-needed rest during the holidays. I reckon you’re getting more phone calls than usual…
All the best,
RH

ANSWER: You know the most astonishing fact is that this was not even my personal opinion. All one need do is consult history. NEVER has any attempt to freeze prices to prevent inflation EVER worked even once.

The Roman emperor Diocletian (284-305AD) tried to impose wage and price controls in an effort to prevent inflation that was soaring because of a collapse in confidence in the Roman government. The Edit on Maximum Prices was imposed during 201AD. It was an utter failure.

Even if we go back to the 4th century B.C., the Roman government bought corn (grain) and, in times of shortage, it re-sold it at a low fixed price to try to prevent inflation from shortages – as we have today. In 58BC, the Roman Senate went even further and granted every citizen free wheat. The politicians were trying to bribe the people as they are doing once again today. What happened was that the farmers began moving back to the city of Rome because they could live and eat without working – it was free. By the time Julius Caesar (100-44BC) crossed the Rubicon, one in three Romans was receiving government wheat. He was forced to create a census and found there were more people claiming welfare than there were possible people.

Those in government ALWAYS assume that since they possess a pen, they can write whatever law they desire and they will comply or be thrown in prison until they die. I was named FOREX Person of the Year in 2015 because we forecast the Euro/Swiss peg would break. I even met with the Swiss Central Bank and warned that the peg would break. I was told they would be able to hold it. I replied I think the odds are on my side since NOBODY in history has ever been able to do this. There was the British pound peh into the ERM the broking making Soros all his money. In 1997, there was the Asian Currency Crisis where all the pegs broke. then there was even Bretton Woods which was a fixed exchange rate that broke in 1971 and in 1973 I was called in for the first bank failure due to foreign exchange.

I have done my best trying to warn governments that they CANNOT fix currencies and even when they were forming the G5 with the Plaza Accord in 1985, I was called in and warned that lowering the dollar by 40% would lead to a major currency crisis and a crash by 1987. Never have they ever listened.

Perhaps, the ONLY time anyone in Europe or the United States than anyone in government ever listen was perhaps in 1997. They were starting the jawboning of the Yen for trade purposes once again. I wrote to Robert Rubin and he has Timothy Geithner respond who later became the Secretary of the Treasury. China has listened, but other than in 1997, I cannot say any central bank or government has EVER heeded my warnings that history is on my side – pegs NEVER work.