Germany Slips into Recession Following the Economic Confidence Model


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; Your ECM has been amazingly accurate. Not only did real estate peak, but it is now official, Germany is in a recession.

Great job

HW

REPLY: There is an accurate business cycle that unfolds but you must step back and observe it from a global perspective. The Economic Confidence Model has a long track record.  The numbers are shocking. For 8 out of 12 months in 2018, German production has declined. On average, manufacturing declined 4.1% in November and energy production decline 3.1% in November. Even new construction has declined 1.7%.

May EU Elections Promising to be Major Issue


Two more politicians in France have abandoned Macron and joined the right party of LePen ahead of the May European elections. Our sources in France are clearly revealing that the Yellow Vest movement has had a profound impact on politics. Macron’s promises to raise taxes on the rich are falling short because that just never seems to result in lower taxes for anyone else.

Our models are shaping up to show May as the major turning point here in 2019. This will have a profound impact on European share markets as well as the currency. Meanwhile, the EU is really at war with Poland and its policies have been outright deliberately intent on punishing Poland. This is leading to the development of a new coalition causing Ital and Poland to join together against Brussels to form their own anti-EU league.

Yellow Vest Movement Spreads to Australia & Poland


We are witnessing the Yellow Vest Movement now also spreading to Australia. We are seeing the rise there and in Canada also against Fake News that the media is desperately fighting Trump on who now label him an idiot in headlines. We are also witnessing a backlash against taking in the Muslim claimed refugees from Syria in Australia as well. It is not a matter of race, but culture. People who traveled to Paris from the USA this summer have often returned with horror stories of being robbed on the street, cell phones, jewelry, purses being stolen by people on motorcycles. Muslim women begging on every corner of the Champs-Élysées. The culture clash is the problem. These people cannot speak the language and lack skills for employment for the most part. Immigrants historically seek economic opportunity – not handouts. Last November, Merkel was offering cash to the refugees to leave Germany it was getting that bad. Now she is willing to pay one year’s rent back home to leave Germany.

The Green groups that have taken over the UN are frantic fearing that they want to avoid the violent clashes that have rocked France from becoming a “je suis Trump” (I’m Trump) moment for against climate change. It was the higher global warming fuel taxes and other environmental efforts that sparked the “yellow-vests” protests that have forced Pres­ident Emmanuel Macron into ­retreat. In Canada, the Yellow Vests are also growing over environmental sanctions that block pipelines and creating employment in the energy industry which is also lurking behind a growing separatist movement in Alberta. The Yellow Vest Movement has hit Poland for all the same reasons. In Egypt, the government has restricted the sale of yellow vests in hope of preventing the spread of the movement there as well. This is turning into a clash against the Global Warming Crowd. The environmentalists now fear that the Yellow Vest movement will engulf all of Europe as their agenda has been to raise taxes and lower the standard of living in addition to the birth rate.

 

Rigging the Markets


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I really want to thank you. You have opened the door to show that there is a hidden order that the great unwashed are unable to see. Not only did you say the Dow was not breaking out at the October high, but you even got the day of the low on Dec 26 correct and called for a bounce into early January. Do we have to wait for the turn in the ECM now since the Dow did close below 23360 at year end?

JS

ANSWER: That was a minor signal at year end. It served to put us on notice that the slingshot to the upside will be extended. That is very good news for I was concerned that such a move would have peaked by 2020/2021. It appears we have been granted a huge reprieve in that regard and we will be looking at profound events unfolding ahead. I gave the Bullish Reversals for the bounce on the Private Blog. They are capping the market for just now.

I am preparing the 2019 Outlook Report now. We have to look at all the markets and how they closed to catch a glimmer of the future behind that door. The great unwashed, sadly to say, will wake up. We are beginning to see that with the Yellow Vest movement spreading worldwide. There will always be people you just hate me because they have been wrong. They prefer to blame me than open their eyes and actually see how everything is connected. They are idiots and exactly like the bankers who paid bribes to Russian officials to rig the markets and when they collapsed, they blamed me instead of admitting you cannot rig any market to move in only one direction. That is good when they hate me for forecasting. It demonstrates and proves that there is always two sides to a market so no worries about everyone following just one model – that will NEVER happen.