Forecasting RecessionsForecasting


Posted originally on Sep 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |  

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I find it incorrigible that everyone now claims recession when they have never predicted a recession before. That was clear from the video you had of Larry Summers, who admitted nobody could do that. It is very strange how you are the only person who has ever forecast recessions and new highs in markets when everyone was called the opposite. Even in August, you had these people clamoring for an emergency rate cut while you said it was a three-day plunge and a new high would follow.

US GDP 4 25 24

I looked back, and even in your April 25, 2024 post, you said a recession would follow the ECM turn on May 7th. Nobody gives you credit. They all copy you. But without you, they have no forecast. They are stupid, for what you have done is essential for society. These people want to pretend they are something they are not.

They do not even understand what makes a recession unfold.

Thank you so much. I wish people would be honest and give you credit, for that is the only way to hope for what comes after 2032. All they do is plagiarize you.

Peter

ECM 2020 2028 R

REPLY: Sadly, what you are describing is human nature. We are a flawed species – tragic in so many ways, like a Greek play. We seem to cling to our expectations of a just and moral world when history records anything but morality. And Thraymachus basically said JUSTICE is always the same – the self-interest of those in power – JUST US is the real spelling.

We have Europe and South America censuring free speech because the LEFT does not believe in civilization; they only see their own self-interest. Their failure in life is caused by the success of others—never themselves. As a species, we seem to believe there is ethical meaning behind everything when we live in an unethical and meaningless world that bathes only in self-interest.

Recession Global

I understand what you mean. Only this model has projected booms, busts, and recessions decades in advance. We have to learn to live with the cycle. Pretending you called a recession from a gut feeling or just looking at US statistics is a joke. We are all in this together. The US cannot withstand a global recession. That is why I say we are all connected. When you have the Neocons threatening war on four fronts, China, Korea, Russia, and Iran, the future is colored with uncertainty. That results in the contraction of spending.

Then, inflation is set in motion by shortages and tax increases. Throw in Kamala’s taxation of unrealized gains and make it only the billionaires. They are then forced to see stock to pay the tax, and you create the biggest crash in history that wipes out people’s pensions. NOTHING takes place in isolation. NEVER do the Democrats ever once question their spending. They are Marxists and must constantly promise more, never less, and that necessitates endless tax increases that always reduce GDP.

InvisibleHand 2

It’s always the invisible hand – we all act in our own self-interest.

Will Rate Cuts Help Canada?


Posted originally on Sep 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

The Bank of Canada building

The Bank of Canada voted to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25%, marking the third consecutive rate cut. Inflation has allegedly slowed to 2.5% as of July, and Governor Tiff Macklem said that was reason enough to drop rates to attract investment.

“If inflation continues to ease broadly in line with our July forecast, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy rate,” Governor Tiff Macklem said in a prepared opening statement. Canada’s GDP grew at a faster rate than anticipated during Q2 after growing 2.1% vs the 1.8% forecast. Unemployment remains high at around 6.4%.

The bank acknowledges that these cuts will not impact the housing market. “With the share of CPI components growing above 3% now around its historical norm, there is little evidence of broad-based price pressures. But shelter price inflation is still too high. It remains the biggest contributor to overall inflation, despite some early signs of easing.”

Will these rate cuts cause any major changes in Canada’s economy? Absolutely not. In 2016 under the Liberal government, the total private debt of the Canadian public exceeded the total national GDP for the first time in history after reaching 100.7%. Canada’s national debt spiked to $1.501 billion USD in March of 2024, a $1.423.3 billion USD increase from March 2023. Gross debt was 117.2% of GDP in 2021, above pre-pandemic levels at 105.6^ in 2019. Half of Canada’s debt comes from the federal government while the other half is from provinces and local governments who have been given the green light to continue spending.

CanadaHouseholdDebt

Canada is deeply indebted and now ranks the third-highest nation in terms of household debt in the worldI reported in July how household debt exceeded 100% of GDP with no signs of slowing under the Trudeau Administration that recklessly spends with no end in sight. Switzerland and Australia are the only nations exceeding Canada’s debt levels. Government debt has SOARED in recent years, now exceeding C$1,139.98. This figure was only C$721.36 billion in 2020 before Trudeau used the pandemic as an excuse to bulk up social programs.

The population of Canada has exploded to the highest level in history thanks to open border policies. Canada, like all the other Build Back Better nations, has the funds to support every foreign interest and war while placing their citizens last. Rate cuts can do absolutely nothing when the government is borrowing against future generations.

Trudeau: Let Them Eat Donuts


Posted originally onSep 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong   

I commend the restraint displayed by this Canadian citizen. Failed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attempted to campaign to workers in Ontario who were utterly underwhelmed by his presence. Trudeau praised the 25% tariffs he placed on Chinese steel. “So that’s going to help me keep my job?” the citizen remarked.

No, tariffs NEVER work and the tariff on steel has only led China to retaliate. Trudeau’s Administration believes China’s “intentional, state-directed policy of overcapacity” is undermining Canada’s ability to compete and they plan to slap a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum from China, as well as a 100% tariff on EVs. China is the third-largest supplier of steel to Canada and Trudeau believes these tariffs “level the playing field for Canadian workers.”

China claims that this “will damage trade and economic cooperation” and “violated the WTO rules.” Over a million Canadians are actively seeking jobs and unemployment remains high. The central bank may have cut rates citing lowering inflation, but Canadian families certainly are not seeing their costs lowered. Canadians are struggling to find housing or to maintain the costs of their current homes. Demand far outweighs supply and the newcomers from foreign nations have tipped the scales.

Trudeau brushes off the comment from the citizen who is outraged that he pays 40% in taxes and lives the same life as his unemployed neighbor. This is how the world works under socialistic policies where equality voids hard work from the equation and does not amount to a better life. Canadians are watching their tax dollars being redistributed to those on social welfare programs. Billions are sent to Ukraine despite Canada having ZERO involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war. Healthcare and basic necessities have become luxuries under Justin Trudeau.

The people who created the problem cannot solve it. Canadians have watched their economy decline under Trudeau, not to mention a complete alteration of their society due to a rapid change in demographics. “I think you are only here for another year, we won’t see you around in another year,” said the steel plant employee told Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau continues to show no empathy toward the average Canadian. “He’s got the donuts! Excellent!” Trudeau said to end the conversation. Sorry that you cannot afford housing or to see a doctor despite giving the government nearly half of your paycheck. Let them eat donuts.

Hungary Fined for Limiting Asylum Seekers – Is it Time to Break Up with the EU?


Posted originally on Sep 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

 

The European Union has fined Hungary for failing to accept its delegated quota of migrants. Hungary has refused to pay the fine €200 million fine issued by the European Court of Justice (ECJ). Will this be the issue that finally breaks ties between Hungary and the European Union?

Hungary is constantly at odds with the elite in Brussels who wish to impose a one-Europe government over all member states. The EU has taken over trade, currency, and domestic law for each member. In June, the ECJ found the nation guilty of “unprecedented and exceptionally serious breach of EU law” for limiting the number of asylum seekers. “That conduct constitutes a serious threat to the unity of EU law, which has an extraordinarily serious impact both on private interests, particularly the interests of asylum seekers, and on the public interest,” the judges said.

HungaryBillboard.EU_.Soros_.VonLeyden

“It seems that illegal migrants are more important to the Brussels bureaucrats than their own European citizens,” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated. None of Orban’s policies align with Brussels and the EU has been actively ostracizing Hungary for its independent positions.

The fee has already been claimed as the European Commission plans to deduct the 200 million euros from Hungary’s portion of the European Union budget. Worsening relations, the ECJ is considering placing a 1 million euro DAILY fine on the member nation for ignoring the ruling, in addition to the 200 million it has already claimed.

The European Union is actively destroying Hungary’s economy. The EU has repeatedly sided with Ukraine over the ongoing oil dispute. Orban has been the target of unwarranted hate since he met with both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to hold peace talks. EU diplomats and foreign affair officials boycotted  Hungary’s rotation to hold summits and discuss its ideas for the bloc. They claim each state is a member but they are willing to completely ignore and silence member states who do not blindly comply with Brussels.

Orban does not want to fund Ukraine or involve itself in the war against Russia – strike one. “My job is to convince them to shift from the pro-war policy to a pro peace policy,” Orban said. “They believe that they can destroy the military [of the] Russians … but I don’t believe this at all, because I know the Russians, I know the Soviet Union, I know the Ukrainians. I’m belonging to a neighboring country. I know the whole context. It’s impossible to find a solution on the battlefield, we will lose every day thousands of innocent people,” Orban told CNBC, also adding that “human life is the most precious thing we can lose,” citing the thousands who have already died in this endless war.

In addition to this, there are trade tensions between Ukraine and Hungary. Hungary and Slovakia are exempt from the EU ban on Russian crude oil. These landlocked neighbors are to receive oil through the Druzhba pipeline, but Ukraine has prevented these nations from receiving shipments. Lukoil may be the main supplier using this line, but Russneft, Tatneft, and Gazprom also utilize this line, leading Ukraine to intervene. Hungary is blocking aid to Ukraine as a result, but Brussels has repeatedly told Hungary it is in the wrong.

There is no European Union. There is a European authority within the pretend union that controls all members. The United Kingdom was wise to leave the EU when they had the opportunity, as this power-hungry bloc WILL become more tyrannical as the European economy turns down, war turns up, and member states begin to question the entire alliance. One must ask who actually benefits from the European Union’s regulations and absence of protections.

Average Americans With Maxed Out Credit Cards Can Settle With Companies For Pennies On The Dollar


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Sep 2, 2024 at 07:00 pm EST

Kinsey: Tax Network USA Serves As A Buffer Between You And IRS To Protect Your Rights


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Sep 2, 2024 at 07:00 pm EST

Your Comments


Posted originally on Aug 31, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Family Feud Dispute

COMMENT #1: Your article on families dividing is foretold in the Bible. In Mathew 10 it states:

“children will rebel against their parents and have them put to death.”

REPLY #1: Well, I suppose that more or less confirms the discord unfolding as we head into 2032.

Funding Wars

COMMENT #2: All wars require funding.

When Athens lost the Lavrio silver mines they melted the silver offerings at the temple of Athena in Acropoli. When this was finished they minted gold coins from what little they had. Finally they lost the war to Sparta.
Alexander was strained for gold until he conquered Susa and was able to continue the expedition.
When the Roman legions were left unpaid they revolted. They were promised loot and land from conquests and when no more new lands they were given Italian, till no more.
Byzantium at its decline needed mercenary armies who naturally demanded plenty of money.
They were bankrupt couldn’t afford them and lost.

What is different now?

Ukraine,judging by its bond rates, is virtually bankrupt.
Empty coffers,diminishing tax income and huge military expenses.

The already pledged collateral in the form of precious land and recourses is rapidly changing hands and the lenders are panicking.
If Odessa is lost their fate is sealed for ever.

The gullible who are sleeping in their armchairs being fed propaganda believe the war is about democracy and human rights when in reality it is nothing like that.

Those are the same geniuses who believed two years ago that Russia did not have enough ammunition or that it would fall apart by the Draconian sanctions imposed by western powers .

Let them then loan their own money to zelenski.
They ,for sure,will make happy the war machine profiteers.

As for the mothers losing their sons
who cares.

Worse is happening in Gaza.
They call it necessary casualties.

Madness or stupidity?
History will show.
If we are still alive…

P

REPLY #2: The historical success of tyranny always hinges on the support of the military. The number one lesson governments have learned is that you use troops who are not from the same region. When Yeltsin stood on the tank in Moscow and told the troops not to fire on their own people, they stood down, and the coup collapsed. They did not learn the historical less of the Nika Revolt of January 13th, 532AD.

Nike-Riot

According to the historian Procopius, around 30,000 people were killed. The Emperor was going to flee, and his wife told him there was a non-Greek legion outside Constantinople. They were called in to put down the revolt. Since they were not of that region, they hated the pompous Greeks. It was their opportunity to kill them.

BEWARE of these migrants. They are trying to fill the military with those who will relish the opportunity to kill citizens and get the spoils. They know what they are doing, and this is right out of the playbook on how to put down insurrections. It is also why they say Pelosi was reluctant to bring in the National Guard on January 6th because many feared they would have been armed Trump supporters.

Swiss Supreme Court

COMMENT #3:  We just lost the first Class A action ever – against the Swiss government in causa Corona measures, in front of an obviously corrupt Swiss Supreme Court.
Anyway was worth a trial..

State liability lawsuit dismissed due to Federal Council’s corona measures
The Federal Supreme Court has dismissed the lawsuit brought by around 10,000 people against the Swiss Confederation due to allegedly unlawful, freedom-restricting measures taken by the Federal Council in connection with the corona pandemic. The plaintiffs had demanded symbolic compensation of one franc each. The written justification for the decision made in the main hearing on Thursday, August 29, 2024 will follow at a later date.

Swiis Court Dismisses COVID Suit

Thrasymachus Quote

REPLY: The Supreme Court of Switzerland dismissed a class action suit against the government for restricting their freedom during COVID. No government will take responsibility for their actions. As Thrasymachus said 2500 years ago, justice is only the self-interest of those in power. Now, the World Health Organization wants to call another pandemic to push the agenda of a one-world government. They assume they will get away with it again.

Can the Dollar Survive a Civil War?


Posted originally on Aug 30, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Civil War

COMMENT: It appears that your forecast for an American Civil War will also materialize. You have pointed out numerous times. People make immediate decisions like conquering Iraq and never think what is the end result. They Have done the same with these illegals. Thank you for pointing out the stupidity of their actions. What will happen when the checks stop. And then they want to disarm us. What a combination.

REPLY: This will probably be the last election in the United States, for we will most likely split into three regional governments. We will deal with that at the upcoming WEC. There is no question that post-election violence will be extreme. Whenever you have this winner-takes-all system and political corruption unfolds, the LEFT is not seeking to govern the nation; they are seeking to oppress all opponents. You are witnessing what the LEFT is doing in the UK.

Video Pl

Here is Tony Blair’s apology. This is my point. They never think about what takes place after the rash action. This is what we will suffer because of the flood of illegals who are here for free everything vote Democrat. That is why they would NOT allow RFK to be in the Democratic primary. This has all been planned from the start. I told everyone that Biden would step down. They did the debate and ate their own, knowing he was mentally incompetent.

Democracies are supposed to be where people have the right to vote. The Democrats were denied the right even to select their candidate. This is tyranny, for Kamala was merely installed. She will sit down for a press conference but has to bring her VP. She was Border Czar, then put in charge of AI, probably because she should at least spell two-letter words. She was sent to the Munich Security Conference and repeated what the Neocons told her – Ukraine should join NATO, knowing this would poke the Bear.

2022 Gallup Government Poll

Typically, governments go into civil wars when there is a conflict that is culturally/ethnically, religiously, or racially driven, and we are now checking that box and just waiting for the election. We will face a rigged and contested election that neither side will accept. When there is no confidence in the government anymore, the ONLY resolution is always violence. History confirms this prognostication. How can there be such fantastic polls for Kamala, who never won a single delegate during the 2020 primary, and we look at the only real independent poll organization that shows confidence in Congress down to 7%?

It does not matter who wins. This election will NEVER be accepted, and it certainly will NOT unify the country. The Democratic Convention threw Trump’s name out 329 times. It was just a hate fest. That will ensure violence. The LEFT will never accept a Trump victory – NO WAY!!!!!

There is no belief that this election will be free and fair. The United States has declined into this dangerous characteristic that warns the country is far too divided to stand. I am concerned that the dollar may decline FOR THIS REASON. I want to think that reform is possible. Unfortunately, history tells us that when an empire, nation, country, or city-state is this divided, REFORM becomes possible only AFTER violence.

Can the Dollar Survive a Civil War?

We will focus on this at the WEC in November 8-10, which will be held in Orlando.

Categories:CIVIL UNRESTWAR

What Happens After the Election to Millions of Illegal Migrants When the Check Stop?


Posted originally on Aug 30, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

MigrantCaravan

If we take the belief that the Democrats have opened the border to flood the country with illegal immigrants to alter the politics, and they give free healthcare and more money than you would get from Social Security to rig the 2024 election, what happens after the election? NOBODY asks, what then? When the checks stop coming, and they have no skilled labor to offer, will they then go on a rampage and start robbing Americans to get ahead since most do not speak English to get a job?

Kamala Border Policy

I know plenty of Mexicans. They have generally good family values and are often harder workers than most. The problem is that the people flooding into the country are only passing through Mexico. They do not often share the family values or the work effort of Mexicans. What happens when the checks and free healthcare end after the election, even if Kamala wins?

Columbus Expedition

We are all immigrants unless you were a native American called Indian because Christopher Columbus thought he bumped into India, which was his goal. But our ancestors came from Europe mostly seeking a land of opportunity when there were no handouts, welfare, or free healthcare to entice them to migrate. They came here to work, and most came to be able to own land, whereas, in Britain, you could only lease the land – not own it. That is what Britain had to hand back to Hong Kong. It was just a 100-year lease, known as a LONG LEASE. 

Freehold_Township_NJ

In New Jersey, there is even a township named “Freehold,” which dates back to that period when the land in America one could actually own and hand to your children. New Jersey’s name of its county legislative body, “Boards of Chosen Freeholders,” was rather unique in the United States. The origin of the name traces back to a law passed by the General Assembly of the Province of New Jersey on February 28, 1713/14. Many fled Britain to America so they could own land. Otherwise, the LONG LEASE system means that every 100 years, the next generation must pay for the property value all over again.

Now, the Democrats are toying with the idea of capping how much you can leave to heirs upon your death, for is it not “equity or fair” to allow one person to start in life with more than someone else? In Australia, some have argued this seems to be the origin of these ideas. Australia has the idea floating around whether superannuation balances should be capped.

Valens 1.5 Siliqua Head Left

In 376AD, the Huns swept across much of the northern regions of the Roman Empire, forcing the Germanic Goths to apply to Emperor Valens (364-378AD) for relief by allowing them to cross the Danube and settle peacefully within Roman territory. Valens, deciding that the Goths might provide at least a buffer against the Huns, agreed to the petition, and the Goths began a mass migration. We seem to be making the same mistake as the Neocons, who are keen to enlist these foreigners into the military in return for citizenship. We are inviting a similar disaster that followed the decision by Emperor Valens.

This migration came during a downward cycle in agriculture, and there was a serious food shortage. What we do know is that the Huns were driven to invade the East due to a major drought in Asia. The combined assessment of the archaeological, historical, and environmental evidence all confirms that the Hunnic invasion was driven by climate change that disrupted the economic organization of Asia and eventually engulfed Rome as well. Valens’ strategies to buffer against the invasion of the Huns certainly presented economic challenges not taken into consideration, as we seem to be repeating them again today.

1844 Phila Nativism Riot Againt Irish

Many Romans looked down on the Goths for they could not speak the language, and thus, few could not blend into society for employment easily. However, agricultural production also went through hard times thanks to droughts. Overall, Romans saw these migrants from the north as uncivilized and irrational – akin to just animals. We have this same deadly combination of a decline in agriculture intentionally initiated by the climate change zealots, and a NATURAL DISASTER that reduces our food supply will set in motion similar economic impacts that unfolded following the decision of Valens.

The migration of the Goths into the Roman Empire had a profound impact. Even our word today for “god” was derived from barbarians, not Romans. Proto-Germanic version of “gudą” is derived from the Goths’ Germanic language, “guþ.” So, the next time you pray to “God,” remember that it was a barbarian word – not Roman- which was “Deus” – the Latin word for “god” or “deity.”

Why Formal Education Can Be Just Propaganda


Posted originally on Aug 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Galbraith Great Crash
Herbert Hoover Memoirs

When I was in high school history class, I had to read Galbraith’s The Great Crash. It was not until I came across a two-volume set of Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs that my eyes were pulled open. Nowhere in Galbraith’s book was there ever any mention of a 1931 Sovereign Debt Default because he was a Socialist, and the object of his book was to pin all the blame on corporations and the rich. He omitted everything that ever remotely pointed to the government as a cause. We should all own nothing, shut up, and be happy. Speak up, and today, you go to prison for Free Speech.

The conflict surfaced in my mind in high school. As I have said, in physics class they said nothing is random. Then in economics class, they said everything is random so government has the power to manipulate society and prevent recessions. That was a conflict to me that began my questioning of what I was being taught.

It is becoming painfully obvious schools are programming children for political agendas. This is very Stalinistic, for he, too, instructed children that the state was their parent and if their biological parents ever said anything against the state, they were to report them.

It has gotten far worse than when I was a kid. They were trying to brainwash us that the government is good and the corporate world is all evil. Today, that has gone into being gay, changing your gender, and not telling the parents like Stalin for the State is your parent. This is a movement to reduce the population to make Schwab, Gates, and Soros happy.

What does this all say? Today, if I had to start over, I would choose homeschooling.

(read Chapter on 1931)

Hoover Quote