NATO to Spend $1.5 Trillion in 2025


Posted originally on Sep 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

NATO

NATO is not at war, and yet, the alliance has spent more on funding Ukraine than on any other conflict. The Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2025) determined that the alliance is expected to spend $1.59 trillion USD in 2025, up from $1.5 trillion in 2024.

The United States continues to uphold the alliance financially, with an estimated annual payout of $980 billion. Canada and Europe are predicted to spend a combined $608 billion on NATO expenses or an average of 2.76% of their GDP. Poland spent more per GDP than any European member at 4.48%, followed by Lithuania at 4% and Latvia at 3.73%. Nordic alliances such as Norway and Denmark are expected to spend at least 3% of GDP on NATO this year.

Before the Russia-Ukraine war, members were spending around 1.8% of GDP. That figure shot up to 2.6% in 2024, now sitting at 2.76%, and WILL increase as a result of the 5% of GDP pledge by 2035 that was agreed upon at the June 2025 Hague Summit.

There is an uneven response to the escalating conflict as certain nations are accelerating toward confrontation while others remain wary of becoming involved financially. The concept of creating a unified Europe to end all wars was a moot point. European leaders heed different risks concerning the war. This is not just about weapons and soldiers. It is about capital flow reallocation.

Trillions will be pulled out of productive use and sunk into defense. That creates fiscal strain, inflationary pressure, and accelerates the collapse of social programs. Defense budgets soared across Europe ahead of World Wars I and II. War produces absolutely nothing but inflation and destruction.

Ahead of the First World War, defense expenditures across Europe began to surge in the decade before 1914. Governments shifted capital from social programs into armaments. Britain expanded its navy to counter Germany, while Germany doubled down on land armies. The press sold it as “deterrence.” In reality, it was preparation for the inevitable confrontation that the cycle dictated. This is precisely how they are deflecting current NATO spending, as if the allied members must multiply their contributions to deter Russia.

The same pattern unfolded before World War II. During the Great Depression, military spending in Germany, Italy, and Japan accelerated while their economies stagnated. By 1935, Germany had already abandoned Versailles restrictions, pouring money into weapons while ordinary Germans endured wage controls and shortages. The rhetoric was that this spending would “create jobs,” but it created war.

Rome followed this path as well. By the third century AD, the military consumed the treasury. Coinage was debased, taxes rose, and confidence collapsed. It was the cost of endless frontier wars that eroded the economic foundation of the empire. Once capital fled, the empire was finished. The same capital flow shift is what we see today with trillions diverted from productive enterprise into defense, financed by debt, which will only accelerate inflation and contribute to the sovereign debt crisis.

NATO’s report outlines more than mere budgets, as it shows where each nation is aligned on the Panic Cycle, propelling warfare. Socrates is projecting the rise in volatility into 2026, and the Panic Cycles align. The West has chosen the path of militarization, and that is precisely what history warns precedes systemic breakdown.

Hospitals in France to Prepare for War by March 2026


Posted Sep 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Lose the War

France’s Ministry of Health has urged all hospitals to prepare for war by March 2026. President Emmanuel Macron repeatedly stated that he is ready to deploy French troops to Ukraine’s front lines, and now, the entire nation must prepare for the inevitable.

Hospitals throughout the nation have been urged to prepare for a “major military engagement” in Europe, according to a leaked memo first published by Le Canard Enchaîné. The memo, dated July 18, 2025, instructs hospitals to brief staff on “wartime constraints.” Staff must learn how to survive the psychological and physical pressures of wartime trauma.

Plans are in the works to accommodate patients returning from combat zones, with emergency centers slated to open near airports and train stations to “enable the rerouting of foreign soldiers to their home country.”

The Ministry of Health is preparing for a dire situation—hospitals should expect to receive between 10,000 and 50,000 wounded personnel over a 10 to 180-day window, depending on France’s involvement in the war.

Health Minister Catherine Vautrin attempted to downplay the leaked memo, but did not deny its existence. “Hospitals are always preparing – for epidemics, for surges. It’s normal for a country to anticipate crises and their consequences,” she claimed. Yet, the language used in the letter clearly details that hospitals must prepare for wounded soldiers arriving from a foreign battleground.

Socrates has indicated a shift from localized conflict to widespread warfare by 2026. I’ve warned all who have asked to high-tail it out of Europe before it is too late because once all hell breaks loose, this conflict will spread like a contagion that engulfs the entire continent.

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro and Federal Officials Announce Massive Bust of Precursor Chemicals Bound for Mexico


Posted originally on CTH on September 3, 2025 | Sundance

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro joined multiple members of local, state and federal law enforcement agencies to announce what they’re calling “the largest law enforcement bust of precursor chemicals bound for a foreign terrorist organization.”

The press conference is below, and this is the underpinning of the IEEPA. WATCH:

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Mr. President, Tear Down These Walls


**BUMPED** How is it that an insignificant corner of the internet could predict the removal of the U.S. National Security Advisor, specifically as the first administration official to be removed, more than two months before Donald Trump was sworn in as President on January 20, 2025?

To understand the complexity of the intelligence information flow, consider:

The silo system is made up, in part, of: The National Security Council (10+ desks, 15 staff/analysts per), the National Security Advisor to the Office of the President, the Dept of Justice National Security Division [DOJ-NSD (foreign review section, counterintelligence export control section, cyber section, counterterrorism section)], Central Intelligence Agency [(CIA), National Intelligence Council, Directorate of Analysis], Federal Bureau of Investigation [FBI (Counterintelligence, Counterterrorism, WMD Directorate, Directorate of Intelligence, Cyber)], the Office of the Director of National Intelligence [ODNI (Requirements, Analysis, Collection, National Counterterrorism Center, Mission Managers)], the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI), the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI), the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Dept of Defense [DoD, (Nuclear, Chemical, Biological, Industrial, International)], the National Security Agency [NSA (Operations, Technology, Cyber], and many more.

Each agency/office a silo, with distinct sub-silos, each with equity stakes in the information they gather, review and analyze; ultimately attributing classification level and intersecting analysis with each other agency as mission aligned.

Sound ridiculous?  It probably is, yet we’ve merely scratched the surface of the networks and information flows that swirl around the Office of the President.

How does President Trump frame his world view?  Who organizes the information that is prioritized to reach his desk?

It is very easy to say, “President Trump has to know about (fill_in_blank),” without contemplating the process by which President Trump would know about (fill_in_blank).  The recent remarks by President Trump, surrounding COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, should put a spotlight on this consequential dynamic.

♦ PIAB – We were all very pleased to see President Trump announce the newly formed President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (PIAB), because for more than a decade we have watched how intelligence products were manipulated, shaped and constructed to create the illusion of something that was entirely false.

However, we should note the same process of selecting the PIAB membership led to the previous issue of selecting former Congressman Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor.  In that example, CTH predicted what would happen several months before it actually happened.

There are issues of great DC interest that overlay all names and positions within the Trump administration.  The subsequent behavior of NSA appointee Mike Waltz was a great reminder that sometimes those interests or judgements are not in alignment with the common MAGA priority.

Big international policy issues, like support for Israel, Ukraine support, NATO support and opinions on the threat Russia or China represents, are all part of the prism through which White House personnel references are traditionally made.

When intended policy runs counter to personal ideology, conflicts arise.

The policies of Wall St -vs- Main St, banking regulations, reciprocal tariffs, trade fairness, cryptocurrency and foundational economic nationalism can be challenging to align with the perspectives of the professional political class, in DC.

The aspect of there being “trillions at stake” applies here, and being an outsider in DC generally comes down to financial interests and financial relationships.  Then you run into the issues of the surveillance state, FISA (702) support, data collection and artificial intelligence.

In short, the interests of maintaining the status quo inside Washington DC, which may be interests carried by those in the orbit of President Trump, can stop information from reaching President Trump.

♦ Gordian Knot – As a consequence, cutting through the enmeshed interests with obvious, albeit painful truth, means delivering critical information in such a manner that, well, it cannot be refuted.

We hope this is also the goal of those who have recently been outlining the background of Russiagate. However, given a history of inaction, and the stakes at hand, nothing should be taken for granted.

What’s needed is a full spectrum outing of everything that took place throughout the targeting of President Trump.

Perhaps a lengthy press conference directly in Washington DC, where the adversarial media are confronted with overwhelming evidence of the activity around the targeting (2012-2024), in such a manner that their predictable defensive questioning can be knocked down with specific citation.

A soup-to-nuts threshing of the previous activity – a must watch TV and viral moment- cutting through the entangled issues and breaking them down to their simple core.  However, that approach first starts with the ability of a person to outline the issues with exceptional citation.

The citations, what people call the “receipts”, are key. Because the citations underpin the activity, and the citations are vast, spread throughout the entire silo system and in large measure intentionally disconnected.

The story of the Trump targeting and surveillance effort is abundantly clear when the citations are gathered in timeline sequence and order.  However, those citations must be woven into the story of how the targeting of Trump took place. It takes telling the story, the remarkably truthful story, for the impact to structurally change perception.

♦ OPTIMISM – We are aware that people in/around term-2 govt have come around to understand the scope of our research on these issues.  The 2024 Mike Waltz prediction served a serendipitous purpose; also, you guys know our rehashes are not hymnals to the CTH choir.  We are narrowing focus.

Visible confirmation comes in the appearance of change.  Specific offices have structurally changed the way they engage with the Intelligence Community.  Even while the operatives buried deep in the system are still trying to create false outcomes, the Nat Sec Advisor, CIA Director and ODNI are working with greater synergy.

Literally hundreds of embeds -across multiple silos- have been removed from the aggregate apparatus.  The National Security Council has been taken apart, staff removed, desks shuttered.  The National Intelligence Council was removed from the CIA with personnel fired.  The Directorate of Analysis is now openly confronted.  The ICIG is once again a watchdog. This creates optimism that substantive change is possible. [It’s also long overdue] However, much more work lies ahead.

As we began this outline, we shared a small sample of the myriads of silos to emphasize how each agency may not even realize the value within the information they hold.  Each extracted puzzle piece fills in a clearer picture.

Spygate targeting, which evolved into Russiagate targeting, which evolved into Mueller targeting, which evolved into Jack Smith targeting, is one continuum purposefully scattered into separate isolation silos to hide the core issue, the U.S. government was/is using NSA captured electronic metadata to conduct domestic political spy operations.

September 5, 2025 | Sundance

Secretary Rubio: “We are now going to wage combat” Against Venezuelan Drug Cartels


Posted originally on CTH on September 3, 2025 | Sundance

Speaking to reporters in Miami, Secretary of State Marco Rubio affirmed the shift in drug enforcement that will now use the full weight of the United States military to “wage combat” level measures against Venezuelan drug networks.  WATCH:

Moments before the presser, the Pentagon had released video of a speedboat carrying drugs that was engaged and destroyed by the U.S military.  11 persons on the boat were killed and the cargo destroyed.  [Video Below]

President Trump has unleased the power of the U.S. military against criminal drug cartels and narcotrafficking gangs.  The current focus is in/around the waterways surrounding Venezuela, but the threat is now massive throughout the region.

PRESIDENT TRUMP –  “Earlier this morning, on my Orders, U.S. Military Forces conducted a kinetic strike against positively identified Tren de Aragua Narcoterrorists in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. TDA is a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, operating under the control of Nicolas Maduro, responsible for mass murder, drug trafficking, sex trafficking, and acts of violence and terror across the United States and Western Hemisphere.

The strike occurred while the terrorists were at sea in International waters transporting illegal narcotics, heading to the United States. The strike resulted in 11 terrorists killed in action. No U.S. Forces were harmed in this strike. Please let this serve as notice to anybody even thinking about bringing drugs into the United States of America. BEWARE! Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!!!!!!!!!”  [Truth Social Link]

Secretary Marco Rubio Holds Press Conference in Mexico City


Posted originally on CTH on September 4, 2025 | Sundance 

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed the media in Mexico City amidst his tour of Latin America, underscoring U.S. efforts to confront drug cartels, curb migration, and boost regional security cooperation.  Mexico is being squeezed economically with increased internal pressure by cartels about sovereignty, Mexico seeks balanced collaboration. WATCH:

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MIKE DAVIS: Lisa Cook, One Of The Seven Fed Governors, Got Caught Committing Mortgage Fraud. Three Times. She Claimed Investment Properties Were “Primary Residences” To Get Lower Rates


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: August 29, 2025

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen Blames Russia for EU Immigration Crisis


Posted originally on CTH on August 29, 2025 | Sundance

During a meeting in Latvia to organize EU defenses, European Commision President Ursula von der Leyen outlines how Russian President Vladimir Putin is to blame for the EU importing millions of Mideast and African immigrants.

It’s not the fault of the European nations their states are riddled with criminal conduct at the hands of migrants. No, it is Vladimir Putin who is to blame.  This is the mindset of the European leadership.  WATCH:

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Deep State in US and EU Gnash Teeth and Criticize Trump Administration for Not Attacking Russia


Posted originally on CTH on August 29, 2025 | Sundance

Like pathetic children who demand that Daddy Trump step into the chaos and punch Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin in the face, the EU leaders admit to media they coordinated and collaborated on using social media to decry the latest missile attacks from Russia.

According to their staff, who reported to Politico, the intent of the EU social media firestorm was to influence President Donald Trump.  Think about how pathetic that is in substance.

The Presidents, Prime Ministers and Commissars of the EU collective couldn’t pick up the phone to call President Trump and discuss their position.  No, instead their best approach, as organized by the group, was to take to social media and protest.

These are not serious people.

A second European official confirmed that the morning messages were an effort to influence Trump’s thinking, although the person was not optimistic that the attacks would lead Trump to ratchet up the economic pressure on Putin.”  {link} The discussion of conflict that began as ‘World War Reddit’, has now devolved even further and becomes a messaging war on teh Twitter.  Yeah, these are not serious people.

I am reminded of how the White House initially responded to the beginning of the conflict in February 2022:

I said at the time, “Singh’s remarks outlining the view of the ‘West’ toward defeating Russia are eloquent yet batshit crazy in their ideological context. Daleep Singh sounds like the senior head of a Google Human Resources operation telling the department heads how they need to convey their feelings in order to hire the talent for continued growth in the industry.”

Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh boils down geopolitical power to a cultural issue of social likeability. Pro Tip: Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t care if EU leaders like him.

The leadership of the Western NATO alliance and the European Union are reduced to shouting on Twitter, ‘Help us Trump, help us’.  Meanwhile, these same leaders wonder why Vladimir Putin doesn’t take them seriously. You just cannot make this stuff up.

Germany can mechanize their military and start rolling tanks to the front lines of Ukraine tonight.  France can muster 100,000 troops and enter the battlefield by morning.  The U.K. can put their fighter jets on the runways in Ukraine by nightfall, and the EU can force the collective nations to send troops into the meatgrinder by the end of the weekend.

Will they?  Of course not.   Not without President Trump and the full weight of the U.S. military as the skirt they can hide behind.  The ‘coalition of the willing’ has limits, and apparently those limits end with strongly clutched Twitter messages.

Meanwhile, back in the USA, the professional administrative state is hitting out at President Trump’s Envoy Steve Witkoff for failing to end the conflict or seemingly permit the U.S. Senate to take control of the nuclear weapons.

Again, Politico: […] “The thing is, Witkoff isn’t consistently engaged. He will pop in for a visit to Vladimir Putin, say a bunch of stuff, not tell anyone what really happened and then just fuck off to his life again. Meanwhile, the Russians are talking to you about how ‘Witkoff says…’ and you don’t know whether they’re right or not, but you can’t get a readout from the Russians,” the U.S. official said.” {SOURCE}

Thankfully, Vice President J.D. Vance and the entire Trump administration hit back:

This story from Politico is journalistic malpractice. But it’s more than that: it’s a foreign influence operation meant to hurt the administration and one of our most effective members.

Notice how all of the people attacking Steve are on background? That means it’s two or three deep staters who are angry that Witkoff has succeeded where they’ve failed.

You know what this “reporter” left out to make room for anonymous quotes?

The full quote from the sitting vice president, on the record.

A quote from the secretary of the state, on the record.

A quote from Jared Kushner, on the record.

The full quote from the UK’s Jonathan Powell, one of the most respected national security people in the Western World, who defended Steve vigorously from these malicious smears.

The person who wrote this garbage is [@felschwartz]. Aside from the failure to include on the record information directly contradicting her reporting, I wonder if she ever asked herself why these anonymous sources came to her at this moment with this particular story. They have an agenda to blow up the president’s efforts to make peace, and they saw her as a useful vessel to launder garbage into the conversation, truth be damned.

There are two possible explanations: Felicia is just not very smart and allowed herself to be used by deep state con men. Or she’s in on it and used her position to willingly participate in a literal foreign influence operation. Either way, it’s disgraceful.

To set the record straight: Steve Witkoff is an invaluable member of our team. He did not mislead anyone on what the Russians told him and what the Russians conceded. (Trust me, I’ve seen the intel.) The fruits of his negotiations are that we have narrowed the list of open issues in the Russia-Ukraine war to a set of clearly defined issues–specifically, security guarantees and territorial concessions.

Maybe we make peace, and maybe we don’t. If we do, it will be because Steve Witkoff and the President of the United States worked their tails off, in the face of outright lies from the mainstream press. {SOURCE}

You know what is driving the Administrative State and the EU collective bananas?

[SOURCE]

The Sixteen Thirty Fund – Hidden Online Propaganda


Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

The Sixteen Thirty Fund is a dark money nonprofit that funnels hundreds of millions of dollars to left-leaning political causes. The group spent over $410 million in 2020 alone on media campaigns in an attempt to persuade voters to support “progressive” causes such as migration, climate policies, and abortion. George Soros, Pierre Omidyar, and Swiss billionaire Hansjörg Wyss are known donors to the fund, although the group is not required to disclose their donations publicly.

Not only is the group permitted to operate anonymously, but those paid to promote their messages also operate in secrecy. WIRED magazine recently announced that the Sixteen Thirty Fund has been paying over 90 online social media influencers up to $8,000 a month to support Democratic causes. These content creators operate under the “Chorus Creator Incubator Program,” and they are provided with specific propaganda tools such as “advocacy training,” message briefings, newsroom events, and are often asked to partner with politicians and other left-leaning organizations.

Both sides advertise and push subtle messaging in the media; however, the Sixteen Thirty Fund has prohibited those in the Chorus Creator Incubator Program from disclosing their involvement with the fund. The elites who are promoting causes that they themselves do not abide by insist on anonymity. The 40+ million followers of these influencers do not know that these videos and posts are paid and curated by the leftist billionaire elite.

As a stipulation for payment, the Sixteen Thirty Fund required their minions to route all interactions with lawmakers through their organization to control the narrative.

Traditional political advertisements are disclosed as advertisements. “Paid for by…” However, the new form of media control is through “unique” social media messaging. Moreover, the majority of these social media platforms are already controlled by the leftist billionaire elite. Aside from Elon Musk’s X, all major channels can remove content at whim, and we saw their broad reach during the COVID-19 pandemic when every platform was scrubbing the internet of content that went against the left mainstream media narrative.

Propaganda is far more subtle in today’s day and age. The people controlling the narrative do not care about these causes. The people paid to push these messages do not understand that they are working for the very people they claim to detest.