The U.S-Canada trade deal status is simply a no-brainer. President Trump will answer questions about Canada and tariffs, he’ll put people into seats to discuss trade with the Canadian delegation, and he’ll give every outward appearance of being favorable to Prime Minister Mark Carney…. BUT…
In the background, Trump is simply waiting for the USMCA timeline to trigger a renegotiation. President Donald Trump is ambivalent to the trade partnership with Canada. This moot-status reality is why there’s no substantive engagement.
‘No deal’ -until USMCA redo- is a win for President Trump.
For some bizarre reason that I simply cannot fathom, almost every Canadian politician seems entirely oblivious to this reality. Instead, Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Mark Carney’s chief-of-staff, Marc-André Blanchard are once again coming to DC to ride their bicycles in slow circles at the bottom of the White House driveway while staring in the windows.
An article in Politico notes the Canadian premiers are now accepting the August 1st deadline will pass without any agreement, and the 35% reciprocal tariffs on non-USMCA products (meaning a lot of stuff) is going to trigger.
Literally, everything from Canada that has a non-USMCA component is going to be tariffed. Think about all the stuff from China, Asia (writ large) and Europe that Canada assembles for finished goods. All of that stuff will be subject to the tariffs.
That said, there’s good news coming from the recent meeting between Prime Minister Carney and the Premiers. Within their statement they use the term “developing large infrastructure projects.” That’s Canadian political codespeak for them realizing they are going to have to get back to regular energy development, raw material use/refinement and ACTUAL MANUFACTURING.
Canada is going to have to bring back their ‘dirty’ industrial jobs.
For our Treehouse friends in Canada, this is very good news. The Canadian assembly economic model has to change in order to get compliant with U.S. trade rules. THAT’S TRUMP’S ENTIRE POINT!
The environmentalists within Canada will not like this, but economically they will have no choice; it’s the only way to avoid a complete economic depression.
HUNTSVILLE, Ontario — Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canada’s premiers are tempering expectations that they’ll strike a new economic and security deal with Donald Trump by the end of the month.
“We would like to have the ideal deal, as fast as possible. But what can we get?” Quebec Premier François Legault said Tuesday. “You almost need to ask Donald Trump, and I’m not even sure he knows himself what he wants.”
It’s a shift in tone from the premiers and Carney, who ran for election on his economic record, arguing he’d be the best person to negotiate with the president. But Canada is finding it harder than it looks.
Carney met the premiers in Muskoka, cottage country north of Toronto, to update them on Canada-U.S. negotiations.
As the leaders emerged from a three-hour meeting, they downplayed hopes of an Aug. 1 deal, arguing that achieving a “good deal” is more important than hitting a deadline.
[…] As the negotiations continue, the premiers spent Tuesday carving out a strategy to offset the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on the aluminum, steel, auto and lumber sector. They spoke about developing large infrastructure projects, breaking down trade barriers between provinces and encouraging a “buy Canadian” approach. (READ MORE)
Canada is going to go into a deep economic recession; there’s no way to avoid it. However, if they restart their industrial base, drop the ridiculous ‘green’ energy stuff, start exploiting their own natural resources and train an apprentice generation -just like we are trying to do- then Canada can bounce back stronger than ever.
We know there are Canadian wolverines who understand this concept; we saw thousands of them in the Truckers’ vaccine strike. Make Canada Great Again, by Making Dirty Jobs Great Again, eh?
In 2018, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau relied heavily on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for assistance when the U.S. and Mexico constructed the majority of the USMCA trade pact. Today, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney takes the same approach.
PRESS RELEASE – “Today, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, met with a bipartisan delegation of United States senators in Ottawa. The Senator for Oregon, Ron Wyden, the Senator for Alaska, Lisa Murkowski, the Senator for New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan, and the Senator for Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto, were present.” (more)
The 35% tariffs against Canada are scheduled to go into effect on August 1st.
As noted by President Trump in his remarks during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the White House, Trump plans to renegotiate the USMCA and end the trilateral agreement in favor of two bilateral trade deals.
During the Oval Office meeting President Trump said, “As you know [USMCA] terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” Then the biggest statement, “This was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that”… “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.” …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.”
President Trump is going to exit the trilateral USMCA in favor of two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements between the U.S and Mexico, and the U.S and Canada. The only consideration now is the timing. President Trump is 100% focused on the BIG ECONOMIC PICTURE; it’s not about the politics, it’s all about the economics.
Vladimir Putin has 580 billion additional reasons not to end the war. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz entered office with a clear intent to usher Germany into World War III. Not only has Merz mobilized troops and the largest military spending package in modern European history, but he is now demanding that Russia pay reparations amid an ongoing conflict.
“Growth, market freedom, our energy security, as well as the extraordinary strain on our social systems caused by war refugees: all of this is linked to the war in Ukraine,” Merz said ironically, as Europe would not have these problems if it didn’t embed itself in the middle of the conflict. “The reconstruction of Ukraine is not just a matter of the future… Day after day, we are ensuring that life in Ukraine can continue despite all of Russia’s daily and especially nightly attacks.”
Merz believes that Russia must pay at least 500 billion euros ($580 billion USD) in reparations. His comments were made at the same July 10 conference where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced “the largest equity fund globally to support (Ukraine’s) reconstruction” worth 2 trillion euros.
The G7 nations have already seized $300 billion in foreign Russian assets. Perhaps Merz forgets the repercussions of the Treaty of Versailles after the first World War in 1919. France and Britain, still obsessed with revenge for their own wartime losses, forced Germany to accept total responsibility for a war that was triggered by a single assassination in the Balkans. Germany was stripped of territory, disarmed, and then burdened with reparations so astronomical they could never be repaid.
The German people were humiliated, starving, and desperate. Hyperinflation destroyed their savings and created a depression felt through the generations. The Weimar Republic was a puppet regime enforced by foreign powers. That anger fermented into nationalism, and history repeated — as it always does. This is precisely what gave rise to Adolf Hitler, and if the people think Vladimir Putin is malicious, they are ill-prepared for the hardliners standing behind him, eagerly awaiting their opportunity to take on NATO. Putin has been attempting to end this conflict, but has been prevented from doing so by the Western neocons who removed the possibility of peace.
When you back a nation into a corner, destroy its economy, and humiliate its people, you guarantee a future war. The Russia-Ukraine war has been escalating and neocons like Merz are ensuring that the embers ignite until a fire roars through Russia and Ukraine before engulfing the rest of the world.
Merz is putting all of Germany in the crosshairs. His thirst for war with Russia makes him unfit to be in charge of parking meters for the government. Ask yourself if Germany were at war with Ukraine and Putin said Here are long-range missiles so that you can attack Berlin and Frankfurt, would Germany look to just Ukraine or to Russia orchestrating the whole war?
The tension will escalate starting next week. They will become more open by the week of 08/04, and then the week of 08/18.
To put this mildly, the Euro also has a Panic Cycle in 2026, as does our Cycle of War. Model. Merz is a traitor to the German people. The FIRST DUTY of any head of state is to protect his own people, not throw them into war on the directions of NATO and other warmongers. He should be dragged out of his office in chains. People often wondered if they could have stopped World War II if someone had assassinated Hitler. I fear they will one day hypothetically wonder the same about Merz.
Europe is pushing DESPERATELY for war. This is not going to end well. The third time will NOT be the charm for an attempted conquest of Russia. The EU will lose, and it will no longer exist. The target of 2026.03 will be the culmination of the 8th 8.6-year wave from the Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957.23. The final capitulation of the EU is expected by 2030.
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