Category Central Bank Digital Currency or CBDC

Jun 12 2023

The True Story of Hyperinflation


Amstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Jun 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
could you please explain what happens in technical terms from a capital flow perspective, when confidence is lost and hyperinflation starts to begin?
For example Turkey. When Erdogan was elected i think you wrote that ever since the lira started dropping. So confidence in politics is key. Do you think one day we will see hyperinflation in Turkey?
And another example, is Yugoslavia: what caused the hyperinflation (in technical terms/capital flow perspective)? Are foreign investors getting rid of the dinars? Too many dinars than suddenly rushed back into Yugoslavia causing hyperinflation?
Regards,
Magdalena Š.

ANSWER: The misnomer about hyperinflation is that it is caused by printing money. It is a RESPONSE to the collapse in the confidence of the government.  If we look at the 3rd century, this is where we find the greatest number of hoards of ancient coins. What began this was the capture of Valerian I by the Persians in 260AD.

Valerian was the first Roman Emperor to be captured and Rome was unable to recuse him. That shook the confidence of the Roman people, but it also was a signal to the barbarian tribes in the North that if the Persians could do it, they could as well. Within 10 years, Emperor Aurelian constructed the great wall around Rome. Never before did Romans have such a defensive wall. That had a powerful army.

There was a trend toward debasing the silver coinage which began with Nero to try to fund the rebuilding of Rome after the Great Fire. But that did not undermine the confidence in the Roman Monetary System any more than our perpetual deficit spending since World War II.

However, a spark is ignited and suddenly that trend turns into what I have called a Waterfall event in the purchasing power of the currency. Such an event has taken various forms. However, the end result is the collapse in the confidence of the government and as a result, that is when you get that waterfall event.

In the case of Germany, Yugoslavia, Hungary, etc, there was a 1918 Revolution where communists seized power and the emperor of Germany lost power. In that case, they actually asked Russia to take Germany after their revolution in 1917. This was the beginning of the Weimar Republic.

Germany was saddled with reparation payments demanded by France. First, you had a communist revolution and people with capital began to flee to other places in Europe or certainly move their money out of German banks. It was this drain of wealth that forced the Weimar Republic to print money to try to make their reparation payments. Then in December 1922, they seized 10% of everyone’s assets and handed them a bond.

Here you can see that after that December 1922 confiscation, hyperinflation simply took over. It was NOT the printing of money that caused the hyperinflation it was the collapse of confidence FIRST which then compels the government to expand the money supply lacking taxation revenues etc.

I suspect the spark this time may be the Digital Currency and the proposed cancellation of paper currency. This is why people are moving to anything tangible from real estate, gold, silver, ancient coins, and even equities. With DIGITAL CURRENCY they will have capital controls and prevent you from even moving money outside of your country.

The precise day of the ECM was the announcement of the IMF Digital Currency which they intend to replace the US dollar as the reserve currency. This may be timed with the turning point in 2024. It is unlikely that they would cancel paper currencies before the 2024 election. This is all being

May 23 2023

Africa’s First Test Run for a CBDC has Failed


Armstrong Economics Blog/Great Reset Re-Posted May 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The transition to CBDC in Nigeria did not go as planned. The elites always seek out African nations to use as their test subjects. Nigeria attempted to slowly roll out the program dubbed eNaria built on the Hyperleger Fabric blockchain. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is solely responsible for running the nodes of this digital currency. Beginning stress tests stated this currency could execute 2,000 transactions per section.  In October 2021, the government began offering incentives to citizens who chose to CBN.

A year later, the country was still hesitant to make the switch so the central bank began implementing forceful measures. In October 2022, the CBN decided to cancel and resign the currency in a “move aimed at restoring the control of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over currency in circulation.” They stated that the original paper notes would only be legal tender until January 31, 2023, leaving the people with no alternative but to convert their cash. Nigerians were no stranger to the concept of currency cancellation as it is something the government has routinely done. The CBN openly announced that the end goal was to target a 100% cashless society replaced with eNaria. Fewer than 0.5% of Nigerians adopted the eNaria and protests erupted across the nation.

By December 2, 2022, the Central Bank of Nigeria issued a letter to all banking institutes implementing a strict ban on physical cash. The central bank set a cash withdrawal limit of ₦100,000 ($225) per week for individuals and ₦500,000 ($1,123) for businesses. Citizens wishing to take out larger sums were subject to a processing fee between 5% and 10%. ATMs were limited to ₦20,000 ($45) per day, and only ₦200 ($0.45) notes or lower denominations were available in the machines.

Bloomberg reported that 90% of the country previously used cash for transactions. They did not want to convert to CBDC but were provided with no alternative. Demonetizing the currency reduced available cash from 3.2 trillion narias to 1 trillion narias. This led to the central bank creating over 10 billion eNarias. The people are continually protesting these measures as their society which was largely dependent on cash interactions has been destabilized.

This is how it all begins. They are using Nigeria and other countries as test subjects before rolling out these programs in the West. It is hard for Americans to fathom currency cancelation, as it has never occurred here. Yet, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that they are looking into this option. Per usual, they market it as a “convenience” for the people. In truth, it is a way to ensure money stays on the grid under the thumb of government. They will not allow one cent to go untaxed, and as the program expands, they can remove individuals and organizations from participating in society entirely.

May 21 2023

Interview: Martin Armstrong on Why the CBDC Will Fail and a Great Depression is About to Begin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Posted May 20, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Rumble link Martin Armstrong on Why the CBDC Will Fail and a Great Depression is About to Begin

May 8 2023

CBDC – The Real Target


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted May 8, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

A lot of people somehow think that the move to Digital Currency is a completely new monetary system, It is targeted to eliminate cash transactions so everything is taxable and nothing can be hidden from our overlords. If we look at commerce in the United States during 2022, 82% of all transactions were digital – Debit cards (20 percent), credit cards (30 percent), and digital wallets 32 percent. That was e-commerce.

They are hunting down what they believe is 30% of all commerce and cash and lick their lips at the thought of having their hand in your pocket. Make no mistake about it. They know major upheaval threatens their power. Like Trudeau seizing accounts of anyone who donated to the Truckers, that is the agenda. Control all transactions and turn off anyone who they see as a threat.

May 8 2023

The Insanity of Bitcoin & CBDC


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted May 8, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Just about every Bitcoin advocate says you are wrong and Bitcoin cannot be stopped. Yet, it seems they are dreaming. Here in Europe, we are already restrained by the maximum cash transaction is €1000. Do you maintain that cryptocurrency will be outlawed or seized?

HT

ANSWER: Yes. Here is  Lagarde on digital currency. She states this object is “control” everything you do. Europe is a Marxist Paradise. Everyone is an economic slave and whatever they earn belongs to the state – not them. The state will decide how much you are allowed to keep. I really do not understand these Bitcoin people. They put out all of these theories as if Bitcoin is the savior. These people are out to control EVERYTHING. Do you really think they will allow any cryptocurrency to survive?

I don’t think these people read the memo. Government is broke. They will default on all their debts. And the new monetary system they are planning is total control. LaGarde says they are “considered” no controls on 300-400 euros. “CONSIDERING” means as it stands now, there is 100% proposed control – period! They will be able to restrict what you are allowed to spend money on or even donate if donations will even be allowed.

These people would NEVER be hedge fund managers. The first question you must ask yourself is: What if I am wrong?

They have made up their mind, refuse to consider any other scenario, and in the process, they will have a very rude awakening. We are entering a period of COMPLETE TOTALITARIANISM as we move toward 2032. Governments are losing control in this Private Wave and they then fight back to survive like a cornered animal that will fight to the death.

That is the agenda! What do they not understand? They will impose capital controls. They always do. That will mean that they will have no intention of allowing people to buy and sell cryptocurrencies. They will most likely do that as well when it comes to gold.

The entire purpose of the CBDC is to impose COMPLETE capital controls. So how will you buy and sell anything that they deem to be a threat to their totalitarian world? That is what is coming. All the fools who voted for Biden and will again deserve the world these people are creating. They intend to make RESISTANCE IS FUTILE. In the process, the right to vote will vanish.

Trump won in 2016 and John Kerry called it “populism” not Democracy. They WILL terminate our right to vote in the years ahead because it will no longer be defined as democracy – but populism, which is any movement against the establishment.

Schwab is telling you that Democracy will be terminated. Pay attention. Listen carefully to the report by the FT and how the election of Trump scared the hell out of career politicians. They will never allow Trump to win in 2024. They will assassinate him if there is no other way. The propaganda was that the 2020 vote was real- that was a joke. The Deep State was not going to let Trump win and they control the vote counts.

May 8 2023

FED NOW Launch July 2023


Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted May 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

https://youtube.com/watch?v=le8Me8AfK8k%3Fstart%3D179%26feature%3Doembed

QUESTION #1: why no information on CBDC. Need help fast. Feds are suppose to call in the dollar in July.
HELP
mk

COMMENT #1: This whole thing reminds me of the movie The Omen and we will be accepting the number of the beast and without it we will not be allowed to buy or sell. I don’t know about a person being the infamous anti-Christ, but it sure looks like the government is trying hard to fulfill that role.

SC

ANSWER: The FedNow is the system that will be for CBDC and the elimination of all paper money. However, they will not cancel the dollars in July – not just yet. This is why they are rushing 5G before testing to see if the radiation is harmful. This is all about total control and 100% tax collection. They will be able to turn off the ability to buy and sell categories as well as individuals.

I will do a private post on the timing for the end of paper money. That is coming. It is part of their authoritarianism into 2032.

As for the governments of the world being the anti-Christ, who knows? Perhaps they saw that movie and said that’s a great idea! The “eternal sea” has always been used to refer to politics. This is certainly justification for term limits. Once career politicians were created, that ended any hope of an honest government. Those who are not crooks, look down on us as the scum – hence hiring 87,000 IRS agents with guns.

As far as the number everyone knows the “666” of the anti-Christ, but strikingly, most do not know the number of the name the Jews gave to God – “Jehovah.” If we use the old Hebrew system we can find the number of God. Yod =10 , He = 5, and Vau = 6. Therefore, the name of God in Hebrew – He Vau He Yod equals 5 + 6 + 5 + 10 = 26. The number of the name assigned to God by the Jews is 26. Perhaps they should apply this system to entities rather than individuals.

I have been often asked by students of history that the list from which I derived the Economic Confidence Model was 224 years divided by 26 events yielding 8.6153846 which was a derivative of Pi, and was it based on this calculation of 26? It was not. There just so happened to be 26 events in that 224 period. Beyond that, who knows?

May 3 2023

Bank Failures – A Push for CBDC?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted May 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Monday saw the largest banking failure in the US since 2008 after First Republic went under, marking the third death of a US bank this year. Regulators took possession of the bank this Monday and JPMorgan Chase will acquire the majority of the bank’s assets and remaining deposits worth around $92 billion. First Republic Bank’s stock fell nearly 50% after reporting a significant drop in deposits in the first quarter of 2023. First Republic’s stock value tanked 97% on Friday due to fears of a bank run or failure, and the executives were silent on the health of the bank because they knew they were doomed. JPMorgan Chase coming to save the day is not a good sign.

All of these small and mid-sized banks are struggling with liquidity. The larger banks are gaining more power and influence. JPMorgan Chase’s CEO is nothing like the man who founded his company and actually saved the US from a banking disaster. CEO Jamie Dimon is a World Economic Forum member who fully supports the Great Reset. He wants the US to invoke eminent domain in order for the government to seize your private property.

These are his words, not mine. Dimon noted in his letter to shareholders that “governments, businesses and non-governmental organizations” may need to invoke “eminent domain” in order to get “adequate investments fast enough for grid, solar, wind and pipeline initiatives.” He is adhering to Agenda 2030 and believes that our freedoms need to be removed under the excuse of climate change. “The need to provide energy affordably and reliably for today, as well as make the necessary investments to decarbonize for tomorrow, underscores the inextricable links between economic growth, energy security and climate change. We need to do more, and we need to do so immediately,” Dimon added in his letter.

I will not be surprised if Jay Powell mentions CBDC this Wednesday just to get the public accustomed to the idea. All of these issues can be used as an excuse to implement CBDC as the “safe” alternative to traditional banking. It would be easier to implement if there were only a handful of banks working with the government. The US has never canceled its currency but every empire, nation, and city-state falls in the same manner. The plans for the Great Reset are out in the open and the WEF has infiltrated nearly every government cabinet in the world and bought out the bankers. The day will come when the government gives us a deadline to turn in our paper currency to be converted into CBDC, providing them with complete financial domination over the people.

May 3 2023

The Rule of Law – BEWARE Crypto-Lovers


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted May 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I think it might be helpful to explain to people that the government can subpoena any third party with regard to cryptocurrencies and they will turn over whatever they have that will incriminate a person. As a lawyer, I have to defend a client who thought Bitcoin was exempt from central banks and totally safe. He even seemed to think if there was a nuclear war that Bitcoin would still exist in South America. Some people are just so gullible it is sad and now he faces several years in prison for tax evasion. Perhaps it would help to explain how a third party will turn over whatever they have on you and that includes Google etc.

Many people listen to you because you are not a conspiracy junkie.

All the best

WH

ANSWER: You have a good point. DO NOT even allow Microsoft One Drive to have anything. The government will subpoena any third party and they will give up everything. I do not understand why people are such diehard Bitcoin lovers. ANYTHING that will be on the power grid the government will control if you believe it or not.

Bitcoin is a TRADING vehicle no different from cattle. It is NOT a store of wealth, as it fluctuates like everything else. This is a quarterly chart of Bitcoin. It rises and falls no different than any other instrument. It is not a “store” of value maintaining some constant value to park your money.

ALL cryptocurrency is on the target list for the Biden Administration. We are entering the final stages of the Decline & Fall of Western Civilization. You can see as we progress, they will become more and more aggressive because they can feel their power slipping away. ONLY tangible assets make the transition to the new value on the other side of 2032. NOTHING digital will make that transition.

Both the United States and Europe will split. That means the rules will be different everywhere, and there will be places without power. No power = no value for any digital currency. Let’s get realistic here.

Apr 24 2023

The Great De-Dollarization


Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted Apr 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

All we hear is the same claims that the dollar is dead and it will be totally worthless any day now. Over the last few weeks, all we hear from the majority now is that the dollar is finished. Virtually every page you turn or site you visit claims the death of the dollar. They are calling this the de-dollarization of the world economy and that the future of the US dollar as well as the American empire itself is now collapsing. The general claim is that the group of economically-aligned nations known collectively as BRICS is a major threat to the greenback. That was the same story we heard about the Euro back in 1997.

As their scenario goes, the BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa] have moved to form an anti-dollar colation and Saudi Arabia is considering jumping on board. They insist that once that happens, the “petrodollar” will die and cease to be a reserve currency.

This is then followed by the forecast that the economy will suffer and that any bounce in exports will be short-lived simply because the dollar will be dead for the long term. Of course, this has been the favorite forecast that they keep putting out since Bretton Woods collapsed. They were wrong back then for the dollar rose between 1972 and 1976 against the British pound, with the collapse of Bretton Woods. To try to explain why the dollar did not collapse, that is when they claimed that the dollar was backed now by oil rather than gold. That was just an excuse as always to cover up their wrong forecast.

They sold that story to Newsweek and now the dollar rally was because of oil which replace gold. Suddenly the dollar became de facto backed by oil. They needed an explanation to explain why all the old theories were wrong. They sold this theory and it made the front cover of Newsweek. Everyone said YES! That must be the reason. OPEC priced oil in dollars! Naturally, everything was priced in dollars because, under the fixed exchange rate of Bretton Woods, everything from wheat and corn to copper and gold was all priced in dollars.

Now they are saying the American empire is threatened by the potential commercial real estate collapse and the BRICS anti-dollar venture. So they are forecasting a great depression-style crash is possible in the not-too-distant future. They spin this to forecast the end of the America Empire. The London FT, always anti-American/Pro WEF, reports that the dollar as a reserve currency has declined from  73% in 2001 to around 55% by 2021. Yet the FT did state an obvious fact:

“But if you are a reserve-rich central bank elsewhere that isn’t going to be a lot of comfort. Moreover, would you really feel more comfortable in, say, the renminbi? Even if it was fully convertible and liquid, would you honestly feel more sure that Beijing will behave lawfully than DC? The dollar still looks like the proverbial least dirty shirt in the closet.”

COVID actually has played a major role in shifting the world economy. In 2020, the US economy was 24.75% of the world’s GDP. By the start of 2022, it had fallen marginally to 24.15%. What these dollar-forecasting jockeys do not understand, is that if they were correct and the dollar collapsed, then the very BRICS would collapse even further. Economically speaking, when the United States gets a head cold, the rest of the world catches ammonia. You can’t have it both ways. The strength of the dollar is not gold or oil, it is the American consumer.

The risk to the entire world is runaway inflation thanks to Biden pouring untold amounts of money into the black hole known as Ukraine. The Neocons, who control Biden, are planning to launch a war against Russia and China before 2024. This will only continue to accelerate inflation. That reduces the spending power of the American consumer and in the process, the US economic growth declines in real terms and with it, the rest of the world plunges into recession.

While Macron has figured it out that the Neocons are in charge of US foreign policy and he is telling Europe to stop being the puppet of the USA, that all sounds nice but Europe is marching into war with Russia. NATO is firmly in control of the American Neocons and they need war or face losing power. With Trump in the lead, they must stop him at all costs for he is anti-war, would haul the Neocons out by the necks, and defund NATO, as well as stop the climate change agenda.

The US dollar in the global economy has been supported by the size and strength of the US consumer-based economy. Its stability and openness to trade and capital flows without restrictions and it has never been canceled, are the major foundation of the dollar in addition to strong property rights and the rule of law. That is why Russians and Chinese buy US property for they are secure in their ownership of US property which cannot always be guaranteed outside the US.

Consequently, the depth and liquidity of US financial markets remain unmatched. For institutions parking billions, the United States represents a large supply of extremely safe dollar-denominated assets. Are they really going to switch to China or buy debt from Brazil?  Not a single institutional client will take that bait.

China has been divesting of dollar reserves because it KNOWS that the American Neocons want war. You do not fund your adversary who intends to wage war against you. China cannot shift reserve assets to Europe or Japan. They have been buying gold because it is geopolitically neutral territory. They are NOT buying gold as an investor thinking it will rally. That is irrelevant. If gold drops 25%, that does not translate into them becoming a seller.

The dollar in international reserves stood at 60+% at the start of 2022 against the US share of GDP at 24.25%. This comparison belittles the argument that the dollar is finished. Eventually, the US will lose the wars it is starting and the dollar will be replaced perhaps as soon as 2028. The IMF is already licking its lips and rubbing its hands together eager to get control of the reserve currency. But they too will collapse. We have a Directional Change next year and a Panic Cycle in 2025. So buckle up.!

Remember one thing, even with the debasement and collapse of the Roman Denarius between 260AD and 268AD, it still took 224 years for Rome to completely collapse. When war breaks out, capital flight will still be to the dollar. It will not be to public assets, but private. The United States is still supporting the entire world economy. The BRICS need the US consumer to keep their economies functioning. All this talk of the dollar being finished is really nonsense. That day will come, but when the US consumer no longer buys.

Remember 1997? The Euro was going to dethrone the dollar. They claimed the new EU will be a bigger economy than the US. The problem was, they lacked a consumer economy, and low taxes, and they routinely canceled their currency to force people to pay taxes. It is always the same story over and over again.

Apr 18 2023

Welcome to the New Totalitarian One World Government


Armstrong Economics Blog/Regulation Re- Posted Apr 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, You are the only worthwhile analyst. You were alerting us a year ago that the IMF was creating its own digital currency. We have all these people claiming this will kill the dollar just as they proclaimed the euro when that was created. It is also well known that you were called in about revising the world monetary system numerous times. I heard that you were called in on this one and refused to assist them. You warned back in May of 2021 that the IMF was creating a new reserve digital currency.

Is this all part of the rise of the United Nations, World Bank, and IMF all becoming this one world government? I that why you declined to get involved?

LW

ANSWER: I am not at liberty to speak to issues where I am solicited. Suffice it to say, I took no part in creating this currency. This is part of what I have been warning about digital currency. They can restrict its use and anyone who thinks that somehow Bitcoin will be some independent white knight rushing in to save the day, they have drank too much of the cool aid.

Look, try depositing $10,000 in cash. Watch what happens. I have a friend who owns a bar in a college town. He takes in a lot of cash because the customers often do not have credit cards. Some banks did not even want to accept an account from him. Others required inspection and monitoring because cash CAN BE a way to launder money. Europe has been restricting cash to transactions capped at €1,000.

There is serious talk of restricting purchases for cash or CRYPTOCURRENCY and the way they enforce it is precisely restrictions on businesses and noncompliance means you are out of business when no bank will accept your account. That eliminates business in credit cards as well. This is why I say, they will create a black market through their sheer authoritarianism. Human rights will no longer be respected. This is point 8 of Schwab’s Agenda.

Back in 1980, the press was all over my firm. NPR came in with cameras rolling and could not believe we had just paid a woman $6,000 for a heavy silver serving plate. We had lines all day long at all my locations in addition to the fact I was making markets for all the stores nationwide. Whatever they bought that day they sold immediately;y to us and shipments were coming in from everywhere. I had a team just handling that and we would bundle it all up and send it out in Armored trucks to be refined at Engelhard which was 30 minutes away.

Because of all the publicity, the IRS came in and declared me to be a bank under the theory that Nixon only closed the gold window and gold was never demonetized. Sure, it was a novel theory that just because I was one of the 3 largest gold dealers in the country, that made me a bank without applying for a banking license. They claimed I had to report every transaction of $10,000 or more buying for selling. They sent in their stormtroopers and began going through every transaction. They then went out and audited over 3,000 clients. I decided to retire. That was it. I was not about to become a rat on everyone that walked in the door.

The point is this. They can declare everyone mining cryptocurrency to be a bank. Already, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 (IIJA) requires any transaction of $10,000 or more to be independently reported to the IRS. The government can declare you to be anything. You can fight them in court and you will lose and it will take years. In the meantime, you will have to comply. They can do ANYTHING they want. It is then your burden to argue that what they are doing is illegal. Good luck. We are no more living in a free country than Russia or China. The government can do anything it desires. It will always be your burden to say they are acting unconstitutionally.

You will NOT be able to travel internationally with even gold coins. You may not even be able to hop on a plane domestically with gold or cash. Over the past several years, a common question for U.S. taxpayers across the globe is whether or not a foreign-based virtual currency such as Bitcoin that is held overseas is reportable for FBAR (Foreign Bank and Financial Account Reporting) or FATCA (Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act) purposes. The Treasury was already pushing since 2021 for any transaction of $10,000 or more in cryptocurrency must be reported to the IRS.

Whether you are a visitor to the United States or a U.S. citizen arriving in the United States, you must complete one or more entry forms.

At the end of the day, they want their pound of flesh and they want absolutely everything to be restricted and monitored. Welcome to the new law of totalitarianism.

Categories: Regulation