A Message from the Lost Generation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Apr 15, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I am a Millennial, a demographic that never had an opportunity to succeed in America. The existential trauma began in middle school when our teachers huddled us into a room to watch the Twin Towers burn down in real time. We do not remember life before the Patriot Act or school shooter drills. The war in the Middle East progressed over the years, and I attended the funerals of former classmates who died in Afghanistan and Iraq. The military seemed like a valid alternative considering the once-in-a-lifetime economic collapse.

The Great Recession hit when we were in college, but most of us did not fully grasp what was happening. Many families suffered immensely, and some in the middle class experienced poverty for the first time, which instilled a permanent sense of scarcity. We piled on student debt for a degree that was nothing more than an expensive piece of paper. There were no jobs available once we graduated. We accepted what we could for pennies on the dollar as they fired the more experienced employees, our parents’ peers.

This caused older generations to have misplaced anger toward Millennials. They called us lazy and shouted how we could have a better life if we stopped buying Starbucks or avocado toast. No one realized that we were experiencing a different economic reality.

The pandemic hit once we settled into our careers after clawing up the corporate ladder. Another once-in-a-lifetime financial crash. We stayed in our apartments while the government sent insulting stimulus checks and businesses closed. Uncertainty and economic volatility engulfed our collective experience. Those who missed their chance to buy a home when prices were digestible are stuck as perpetual renters, as most of our income goes toward rent. We cannot save for an increasingly uncertain future due to shelter costs and overall inflation.

There is no financial nest egg for those not born into wealth. We have never felt financially secure. Our parents were established by the time they reached our age but we are the first generation to experience a lower quality of life than the last. People question why my generation is not having children or starting families. We can hardly support ourselves even with decent jobs. We are accustomed to these once-in-a-lifetime tragedies happening every few years. The future looks bleak and we expect the rug to be pulled out from us again. As you say, it is a matter of time.

Thank you for speaking out against the people who contributed to these events and providing guidance for the future. I do not want the war in Ukraine to spark another economic tragedy, as we are barely hanging on. We were fed a lie that you could work hard and succeed but life is far different for us than what we were promised. I feel more prepared for the upcoming downturn after reading your work and seeing that everything has a cycle. There are no once-in-a-lifetime events.

REPLY: Thank you. If we all understand that government cannot create a perfect linear world with only booms, and never a bust, and that when it comes to government, there is no need to follow science – just follow the money. The founding Fathers intended no salaries for politicians and the terms were just 2 years. In that manner, it would be a government of We the People. When they began paying themselves salaries, they became permanent fixtures in Washington and then came the plague of lobbyists like locusts that eat the entire crop.

Suspicious Cat’s Correct – Johnson and MacGregor Give Details


Posted originally on the CTH on April 14, 2023 | Sundance

In an era of universal deceit, it should not be a surprise for the suspicious cats to be more accurate.

Semi-related context for scope of fraud:  We know with demonstrable certainty that Hillary Clinton, the DNC, Fusion GPS, Chris Steele, DOJ, FBI and SSCI collaborated to create the fictitious premise called broadly “Trump-Russia collusion and interference in the 2016 election.”  The entire thing was bogus soup-to-nuts, all of it… make believe; none of it real.  So, how the hell did Mueller, Rosenstein and Weissmann indict Russians?

Now… Fast forward to the current classified intelligence leaks with the scale, scope and background of everything above in mind.  WATCH:

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In the next segment Douglas Macgregor gives his view, and makes some really good emphatic points about the facts within the intelligence leaks proving the United States government, OUR GOVERNMENT, is completely lying about Ukraine and other matters.

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What we think of as Washington DC is a Potemkin village.

All of it is a fabrication.

The real seat of power controlling government is the part we do not see.  The Fourth Branch of Government!

The Coming New York Exodus


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Apr 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

A new study found that 27% of New Yorkers plan to relocate out of state within the next five years. New York once represented the symbol of American prosperity and growth. People dreamed of living life in the “Big Apple” and America’s international image was largely portrayed at the New York fairytale in films and books. Yet, New York no longer resembles what it once was.

The study said 70% of people are still happy to live there, but 30% wish they lived elsewhere. In addition to those who said they plan to leave within the next five years, 31% stated they plan to retire out of state. They did not poll respondents on taxes. Safety is one of the top concerns and the study shows that about half of respondents no longer feel safe in New York, with good cause. Two-thirds naturally said that the state is unaffordable.

“Democrats, those over 50, white residents and those 35-49 rate the state most highly while through the eyes of Republicans, independents, Blacks and those earning under $50K a year, the state receives the lowest grades,” a researcher said. It is hard to imagine someone earning under $50K could comfortably live in New York. The true problem is crime and the light on crime lawmakers who let violent criminals roam freely after repeated offenses.

Felonies in the city of NY rose 20.4% in 2022 compared to 2021. “Things in a large city aren’t supposed to grow that much or go down that much in one year,” said Former NYPD supervisor Chris Hermann, now an assistant professor at Manhattan’s John Jay College of Criminal Justice. “This is kind of like monumental kind of stuff,” he stated, “like once in a lifetime.” Rape cases increased by 17% in one year, grand theft rose by 25% (auto grand larceny by 32%), felony assaults increased by 15%, and burglary rose by 27%. NYC Mayor Eric Adams has failed at his job by emboldening criminals with relaxed laws.

Only 32% of Lenders Profited on Mortgages in 2022


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Apr 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The talking heads have been warning of a housing crash, but that is not what Socrates indicated. The 30-year fixed rate is around 6.89% at the time of this writing. Housing costs continue to rise, causing the costs of servicing mortgage debt to rise. Housing inventory is limited, and a recent report explains why we saw mass layoffs in the banking sector. The demand is still there and it is a sellers’ market. Cash is king when it comes to real estate for those who can afford it. Mortgage lenders are in trouble. In fact, only 32% of mortgage companies were profitable in 2022 compared to 98% in 2020.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently announced that independent mortgage banks and subsidiaries of chartered banks lost around $301 for every mortgage they financed in 2022. This marks a 113% decline from the prior year’s average and the first-time banks are seeing losses on mortgage products. This is not 2008 when banks handed out loans to anyone who asked.

“The rapid rise in mortgage rates over a relatively short period of time, combined with extremely low housing inventory and affordability challenges, meant that both purchase and refinance volume plummeted,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The stellar profits of the previous two years dissipated because of the confluence of declining volume, lower revenues, and higher costs per loan.” Production costs reached a high of $10,624 per loan last year. Productivity was 1.5 loans originations per production employee, down from 2.5 per employee the year prior, and an indicator of why we are seeing layoffs in the banking sector. No one is refinancing at these rates either and most chose a fixed rate, as we saw what happened in 2008 with adjustable costs.

First-time mortgages reached an all-time high of $323,780 last year, up from $298,324, the largest annual increase since the MBA began collecting data. The increased cost of loans increased the cost of serving mortgages. The MBA expects volume to decline further in 2023 before rallying in 2024 and 2025. The banking crisis may lead to banks and lenders selling off their mortgage debts once they cannot afford to service the debt. Again, the housing crisis today is not relative to the 2008 crash.

Credit Where Due, Glenn Greenwald Nails This Discussion of Media and the U.S. Intel Leaks


Posted originally on the CTH on April 14, 2023 | Sundance 

There are times when CTH and the perspective of Glenn Greenwald do not align. This is not one of those times. {Direct Rumble Link Here}

In this segment with Tucker Carlson, Glenn Greenwald nails the agenda, motives and outcomes of the U.S. media as they relate to the recent classified intelligence leaks. This is a solid three-minute encapsulation of the problem. WATCH:

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Tucker Carlson Discusses U.S. Intel Leaks and Media Effort to Hide the U.S. Govt Lies


Posted originally on the CTH on April 13, 2023 | Sundance 

During his opening monologue tonight, Tucker Carlson outlined the latest developments on the U.S. classified information leaks and the media effort to avoid talking about the government lies within them.

It really is quite a remarkable development to witness in real time.  Corporate media, a completely collapsed fourth-estate, playing the distracting role on behalf of the intelligence apparatus they are supposed to keep in check.  WATCH:

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The DNC and Marc Elias Disconnect


Posted originally on the CTH on April 13, 2023 | Sundance | 62 Comments

Several people have asked about a motive for the DNC to sever ties with long-time lead lawfare litigant Marc Elias.   [Story Here]

Remember, Elias proactively departed from Perkins Coie to carry out independent contractor operations and draw distance during his defense from indictment by John Durham.  Elias left Perkins Coie because the Elias’s relationship with the FBI was enmeshed within the Durham probe.  Perkins Coie needed to retain the FBI relationship, while it was in their best interest for the FBI silo to distance from the Elias litigation.

Marc Elias then went on to continue being lead lawfare for the Clinton elements of the DNC, while former AG Eric Holder is lead lawfare for the Obama elements of the DNC.  This internecine relationship inside the DNC club is important to remember.  There are two factions in the DNC, the Clinton aligned subset, less power, and the Obama aligned subset, more power.

Outside the club the downstream community organizations are similarly aligned.  We have the African Methodist Episcopal church (AME) and the similarly motivated Black Lives Matter network.  Then there’s the organized labor network consisting of the SEIU, AFSCME, AFL-CIO and UFCW.   Both networks provide foot soldiers and opportunity leadership for the DNC objectives.  There is always crossover, but Team Clinton and Team Obama are separate groups.

Barack Obama organized the merger between AME/BLM (James Clyburn) with Big Labor communists for 2020. That was the baseline for Obama/Clyburn picking Joe Biden to maintain Obama’s 3rd term interests and instruct all the other candidates to fall in line until they could get rid of Bernie Sanders.

From the construct of 2024… If the AME/BLM network was going to be the tip of the spear, the DNC convention would have been in Atlanta, Georgia (social justice theme).  If the organized labor network was going to be the tip of the spear, the DNC convention would be in Chicago, Illinois (communist theme).  The DNC picked Chicago ’24; that tells you who takes point on community organizing for 2024.  The communists are in charge.

This is the background to review the exit of Marc Elias.  With Big Labor taking point, and with team Obama in charge, go find where Obama has positioned Tom Perez and we will likely discover the opportunity for the DNC to depart with Marc Elias.  Marc Elias is the lead social justice lawyer, and Tom Perez is the lead communist lawyer/activist.

Washington Free Beacon – The Democratic National Committee has cut ties with Marc Elias, the party’s scandal-plagued election lawyer who was behind the infamous Steele dossier that falsely accused Donald Trump’s campaign of colluding with Russia.

The DNC and Elias are parting ways over “strategic disagreements,” according to Punchbowl News. It is a surprising divorce for the DNC and Elias, considered one of the Democratic Party’s top elections lawyers. Elias has worked for the DNC since 2009 and made over $1.9 million from the DNC this cycle alone. (read more)

For 2024, the professional communists (Obama’s community activist and labor pals) will be in charge of the DNC operations.  The social justice warriors are less valuable now. The communists are in charge.

From a strategic position, the DNC deemphasis on the social justice issues makes sense, as the RNC wing is ramping up operations against the current social justice positions via ‘wokeism’.  The social justice crowd will still exist, but the communists will be taking point to set the narrative and tone for the “equity in economics” policy platform into 2024.

If you remember the Obama activated battles with SEIU purple orcs in ’07/’08, well, prepare for that type of conflict in ’24 on an exponentially larger scale.

See how that works?

Enjoy the show.

The Full Surveillance Power of the U.S. Govt Could Not Find the Classified Intel Leaker, But the Media Did…


Posted originally on the CTH on April 13, 2023 | Sundance 

Sometimes the obvious answers are in the reality of the part that few pay attention to.

According to the original outline, as presented by the Washington Post last night [Original Story Here], the full surveillance and intelligence power of the United States government was unable to locate the source of the largest leak of U.S. classified intelligence in a decade, but some journalists found a teenager in his mom’s basement with all the answers.   This is the story, and they are sticking to it.

I’ve been in enough rabbit holes created by the silos of the intelligence community to know when not to enter one.   First things first, what silo uses the Washington Post?

We all should know by now the same three-letter operators in charge of the Amazon Cloud Service, are the same three-letter operators who use the PR firm known as the Washington Post.

Why the intelligence people from inside the CIA/NSA silo wanted to exploit the teenage gamer with a connection to an intelligence leaker, as the preferred narrative is unknown.  However, the DHS details provided in the intelligence community follow-up through the New York Times does provide some clues.

New York Times – The leader of a small online gaming chat group where a trove of classified U.S. intelligence documents leaked over the last few months is a 21-year-old member of the intelligence wing of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, according to interviews and documents reviewed by The New York Times.

The national guardsman, whose name is Jack Teixeira, oversaw a private online group named Thug Shaker Central, where about 20 to 30 people, mostly young men and teenagers, came together over a shared love of guns, racist online memes and video games.

Two U.S. officials confirmed that investigators want to talk to Airman Teixeira about the leak of the government documents to the private online group. One official said Airman Teixeira might have information relevant to the investigation.

Federal investigators have been searching for days for the person who leaked the top secret documents online but have not identified Airman Teixeira or anyone else as a suspect. The F.B.I. declined to comment. (read more)

There it is again….

The CIA, DoD, NSA, FBI, DHS and all of the combined systems of the United States intelligence apparatus, the kind that can isolate your location through the mirrored image on a WaWa CCTV camera in Podunk, Mississippi, could not find the 21-year-old originating leaker who was posting details, images and classified data for months in a chat room online.   But the Washington Post and New York Times can isolate, locate, interview, record, broadcast and then name the suspect within 12 hours….

Okay. Gotcha!… and now the government will talk to young Mr. Jack Teixeira about his endeavors. Got it.

I have been in these intelligence creations, and we have traveled into the rabbit hole of their intelligence storylines long enough to spot one when it surfaces.

My gut hunch…  Two issues.  The first is the obvious; the USG was cool with the leaked information because it formed the baseline for a geopolitical change in direction, a pivot away from the quagmire they created in Ukraine.  This part is obvious, because if that wasn’t the case the leak cleanup operation would have been silent. The collective IC would have just traced the origin, destroyed the information, pulled in the participants and black-holed the entire mess.

The fact the IC engineered a media narrative for it, pushing the leak story into the mainstream cycle, says the IC had a motive to promote the leak narrative.

Second, the gaming “sector” has always been a thorn in the side of those who seek to control communication and conduct surveillance therein.   They are already in social media platforms, but the gaming platforms were not exploited to scale.  The USG has now established a baseline to enter that sphere of communication and networking and begin formal operations in the gaming platforms.

Still, anytime the U.S. Intelligence Community is involved, it is always best practice to watch and remain out of the hole.

The only question you really need to ask yourself is, what aspect of my liberty does this intelligence operation support the removal of?

After all…  if only we had the Restrict Act in place, then none of this classified information surfacing on social media would be such a concern, right?  Right?

Remember…. “Greasy Bear hackers and Macedonian Bot Farms might sound like a good justification for a prosecution when pitched to an incurious media. However, when Greasy Bear and the accused Macedonians show up in court, well, the prosecutors might just have a problem.  That is the backdrop for a series of bizarre requests from the Special Prosecutor to seal the evidence against the accused, Concord Management, and the defendant’s response.  (read more)

Social -vs- Economic Priorities


Posted originally on the CTH on April 13, 2023 | Sundance

Prior to the 2012 election and the rise of the Sandra Fluke free birth control narrative, we used to call them social issues; however, the usefulness of cultural wars has morphed into the larger war of wokeism.

In the big picture, keeping the base GOPe voter distracted from the economic expansion of multinational globalism, the corporate ‘masters of the universe’ (ie. the Big Club), need to keep pushing anti-wokeism as a political strategy.

The cultural issues are useful tools to keep control of an alignment of voters.  It has always been thus, and even more important now that people are starting to realize the expansion of the rust belt.

The rust belt, the diminishment of the U.S. economic manufacturing base, was an outcome of corporate control over politics.  Corporations and banks seek profit, those profits are inflated by a U.S. service driven economic model.  Skilled jobs require higher wages.

If the skilled jobs can be outsourced to lower cost labor nations, the subsequent lowered labor costs drive bigger margins.  Again, it has always been thus.

At the core of the U.S. political issue, you discover that both wings of the DC UniParty agree with this basic economic model.  Republicans and Democrats now use the catchphrase ‘service driven economy‘ with bipartisan frequency.

Many voters no longer have any reference to an economic system that is anything except a ‘service driven economy’, yet nothing about that system provides long-term value for U.S. voters or workers.

Within this very specific dynamic, you find the root of the support for Donald J. Trump.  A larger, formerly considered silent majority who comprise the baseline middle class workforce, find common understanding with President Trump because he sees the flaws in the economic model.

Not coincidentally, it is only Donald Trump who has ever discussed these economic issues. Factually, no national politician in the modern era prior to Donald Trump ever dared broach the subject of economic nationalism, economic globalism and the negative consequences therein.  Republican candidates who would disagree on economic policy would find themselves in the target field of the corporations who fund the political system.

A general platform more akin to a code of omerta covered the entire subject of republican economic policy.

As the pandemic years have shown, economic security is deeply tied to national security.  As an outcome, economic policy ultimately drives foreign policy.  When combined, the economic and foreign policy outlooks form the structural alignment of the UniParty platform.

Following the downstream effect of multinational corporate influence, modern Democrats support expansionist and interventionist foreign policy.  Meanwhile, modern Republicans, previously called “neocons” have always supported expansionist and interventionist foreign policy.

Leadership of both parties now align in a singular foreign policy outlook; thus, we see support for the Ukraine spending and intervention by both Democrats and Republicans. However, outside the DC bubble of multinational corporate influence, the support for the interventionist foreign policy doesn’t exist in the same scale and scope.

Voters inside both the Democrat and Republican base do not support U.S. foreign policy intervention at the same level as the political leadership of both parties.  There is a structural break between the priorities of voters and the priorities of the elected officials.  None of this is new discussion, we all accept this basic reality and we see it every day amid the headlines.

With political leadership of both parties supporting the same economic outlook, and both parties supporting the same foreign policy outlook, we find the source of opposition against U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Economic policy and foreign policy form the uniting bond that drives both parties to oppose Trump’s America First ideological outlook.

As long as Donald J Trump singularly represents the only counterforce against this UniParty globalist construct, he will continue to be targeted by the system of financial controllers who fund the political system.  For the sake of brevity this alignment of multinational corporate and financial economic interests is called “the big club.”

As part of the strategic political effort, the Republican wing of the Big Club needs to carve up the supporters of Donald Trump into smaller, easier to target, pieces.  This is where the value of the culture war, what is now considered as ‘wokeism‘, plays into the strategy of those who seek to control political outcomes and remove the threat that Trump represents to their financial interests.

In many ways, this is why we are seeing prominent Republican officeholders pushing the culture war as a tool for their own political advancement.  The same Big Club members who are directly fighting against the America-First economic agenda, are the same Big Club members who are funding the Republican politicians to push the culture war.

The corporations, billionaires and multinationals who are funding the Republican candidates do not have any vested interest in the culture war. For them the social issues are a tool, technique or insurance policy to guarantee security of the interest that does matter, their financial status.

There are trillions at stake, literally trillions.  Additionally, decades of their prior investment interests are contingent upon the ‘service driven economy’ being maintained.

Dollars drive the U.S. global trade and financial exchanges.  The multinationals, both corporations and banks, have pre-deployed investments all around the globe.  However, many of those investments are entirely contingent upon the retention of the U.S. economic system they pre-established before the investment was made.  President Donald J. Trump represents the threat to that entire financial system.

Once you understand this, then a great deal of the more nuanced and granular U.S. political moves, almost all of which are funded by the corporations and billionaires who are attached to the global investment process, begin to make sense.

Every non-Trump candidate, funded to create the opposition to America First, is part of this process to use anti-wokeism as a strategy.

With this level of money at stake, do not be surprised when you look at how much is being spent to construct the system that guarantees the continuation of globalism. The money spent in funding the Republican candidates to advance the distracting cultural war pales in comparison to the amount of money at risk in the 2024 election outcome.

That’s the baseline for this:

…“GOP leaders and candidates should take from this poll one important lesson: voters expect them to fight wokeness,” American Principles Project President Terry Schilling said. “Support for policies protecting families from gender ideology is off the charts, with the majority of the base showing a strong preference for tackling these issues. Meanwhile, approval of Republican establishment priorities was much more muted, with most of those surveyed even agreeing that GOP elected officials have given up too much ground in the culture war.”  

…“Any candidate who expects to win a Republican primary next year for any office needs to lead on cultural issues in order to win over voters,” Schilling said. “Perhaps the two most prominent leaders on these issues so far have been Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, so it should be no surprise they are far and away the favorites in the presidential field. It’s time for the rest of the party to pay heed and set their priorities accordingly.” (more)

Candidate Donald Trump understands the real priorities of the Big Club extend beyond this useful cultural war, deep into the world of economics and foreign policy.

As each of the corporate funded Republican candidates hits the cultural war (wokeism) effort as part of the distracting political strategy, watch President Trump generally agree with the ‘social issues’, but then counter the distraction with arguments specifically targeting economic and foreign policy.

The entire field of Republican candidates will hold the same economic and foreign policy outlook (Ukraine example), with only Donald Trump representing an alternative.

Inflation Plateau Continues During March, Real Wages Shrink Again, Future Energy Costs Start to Rise Again with Oil


Posted originally on the CTH on April 12, 2023 | Sundance

In the latest round of statistics from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) the March inflation data has been released [DATA HERE]. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.1% in March after advancing 0.4% in February.  This puts the 12-month CPI outlook at 5% inflation. [See Modified Table A on Left]

A 4.6% decline in March gasoline prices was offset by higher rental and housing costs.  That was the primary driver of the lowered inflationary data as gasoline is weighted heavier in the impact.

However, that said, gasoline prices are already rising again after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers early this month announced further oil output cuts.  This puts the April CPI data (starting to be assembled this week) on track to increase over March.

Overall, in the big picture the data shows the plateau of sorts as we described for this spring.  This plateau will be followed by another bump as a result of current input costs and prior energy costs traveling through the supply chain.

Energy services, electricity and natural gas, are stable but higher than last year.  The crop cycles carry those increased costs from field to fork.  Consumers cannot avoid those food prices increasing.  The more processing involved in the food sector, the higher the price increase.

Housing increases are another unavoidable cost and generally cycle with a lag within them.  As leases expire, the new lease rates increase accordingly.  The same is true for insurance rates.  Both unavoidable sectors have a rolling lag that hits the consumer upon renewal.

On the wage side [DATA HERE] wages went up .03% but the work week declined 0.3%.  Essentially nullifying earnings growth with fewer worked hours.  With inflation at 0.1%, real wages declined .01%.

For the total 12-month cycle noted by the BLS data, “real average hourly earnings decreased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, from March 2022 to March 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 1.6-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.” For the year, wages continue to fall far short of inflation; meaning real wages are negative.  Actual real wage growth has been negative for 24 consecutive months.

The main street economy is feeling all of these impacts.  The paper economy (Wall St) is not feeling these impacts at the same level.  The chasm between the haves and have-nots is widening.