QUESTION: Marty; I remember when the Chinese central bank said they were using capital flow analysis which is your model. You said China should buy US debt directly from the Treasury and not the NY bankers. They did that in a matter of weeks. So when they say they are on the right side of history, are they talking about your model forecasting they will replace the US as the financial capital of the world?
NH
ANSWER: You have to understand that Asians believe in cycles. They are part of their religion. Richard E. Nesbett wrote an interesting book entitled “The Geography of Thought, How Asians and Westerners Think Differently … and why.” He attributed his work to a Chinese student who said, “You know, the difference between you and me is that I think the world is a Circle, and you think it’s a line.” He goes on to quote him:
“The Chinese believe in constant change, but with things always moving back to some prior state. They pay attention to wide range of events; they search for relationships between things; and they think you can’t understand the part without understanding the whole. Westerners live in a simpler, more deterministic world; they focus on salient objects or people instead of the larger picture; and they think they can control events because they know the rules that govern the behavior of objects.”
In my 40 years of dealing with governments, I NEVER had to explain cyclical theory in Asia – only to American & European who do think always on a linear basis. They apply this to analysis like climate change. The temperature has risen say 5 degrees on years and they project that out and say we will all die in 7 years. NEVER does the West ever forecast cyclically – it is always linearly.
China understand cycles – we do not. They understand the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city states. They understand that Communism failed for it tried to defeat human nature. They see the future cyclically and that is what they are saying that they will be on the right side of history. They know the West is crumbing from within. The time that the US hands that title to China is upon the doorstep. The West has done nothing but try to force their ideas upon everyone abandoning freedom and they have introduced the cancelation culture. We have lost all the values that made America great. It is time for Europe and American to die the same way all empires die, by their own hand of suicide.
China being on the “right side of history” means they know the United States is declining and they will step into the void. They can “feel” it with or without my models.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 25, 2022
Showcasing what we have said from the outset, everything about the conflict in Ukraine is a case study in war propaganda as created by the U.S. State Dept, the intelligence apparatus and Hollywood {Go Deep}.
…”Strategic success in the 21st century is not about a physical land grab of territory; that’s what Putin has done. In this century, strategic power is increasingly measured and exercised by economic strength, by technological sophistication and your story – who you are, what your values are; can you attract ideas and talent and goodwill? And on each of those measures, this will be a failure for Russia.”
White House Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh boiled down geopolitical power to a cultural issue of social likeability. This is genuinely what the people running the State Dept., CIA and Biden administration believe. To put a fine point on it:
(New York) – Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been in talks with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to make a video appearance during Sunday’s broadcast of the Academy Awards, The Post has learned.
Academy officials still are debating on whether Zelensky will indeed appear briefly on the show, sources said. It’s also not clear if he would appear live or in a taped message. Sources said the debate centers on whether the Oscars should remain apolitical as the Russian invasion of Ukraine rages on. (read more)
The relationship between the CIA and Hollywood is well established. As a consequence, the award for best actor in a made for television drama or mini-series goes to….
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 25, 2022
Earlier today, President Donald Trump called in for an interview with Glenn Beck. The first topic of inquiry was the lawsuit President Trump filed yesterday against the group who created the Trump-Russia conspiracy narrative. {Direct Rumble Link} WATCH:
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 25, 2022
The Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO) announced today they are likely to have the financial mechanism for a Russia-India currency exchange and trade process in place within a week. Previously, India announced their decision to continue purchasing oil from Russia despite the western sanctions. Prime Minister Modi is a pragmatic, tactical and shrewd business-minded politician.
India is becoming a major player in the geopolitical world, as recognized by former President Trump during his Indo-Pacific trade partnership discussions. The population of India is over 1.4 billion people, and they are industrializing as a more democratic counterbalance to China. Prime Minister Modi has been a key political leader in generating economic alliances to the benefit of his nation, while maintaining a prudent stiff-arm toward the influence of major multinational corporations.
(Via CNBC) – India is expected to announce a payment arrangement that would allow trade with Russia to continue, the president of an Indian exporters’ association told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Wednesday.
The so-called rupee-ruble trade mechanism could come as early as next week, according to A Sakthivel, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO). The FIEO, a government-backed association representing over 200,000 exporters, oversees India’s export promotion councils.
India’s finance ministry and the Reserve Bank of India have not commented so far on the mechanism, which would let Indian exporters continue their business with Russia even after Western sanctions restricted international payment mechanisms. The arrangement would also allow India to buy Russian energy exports and other goods.
Sakthivel said the Indian government is working on a proposal to allow four to five nationalized Indian banks to be engaged in the trade, and there have been consultations between the central bank governor, the finance minister and banks. (more)
(Left to Right) – Xi Jinping (China), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India) and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), the BRICS group.
REMINDER – Stand back and look at the biggest of the big pictures.
A Build Back Better society, or “great reset”, is factually underway as triggered by the gateway of SARS-CoV-2 and the massive spending by western nations to subsidize the lockdowns, shut-downs, economic closures and forced unemployment.
Global inflation is being driven not only by the American spending spree, but also by the massive government spending programs of the EU, U.K, New Zealand, Australia, Canada and many western nations.
The bills for those subsidies and bailouts are due. The labor of the citizens is going to have to pay those bills, while simultaneously we deal with inflation and massive debt balances on all nations’ balance sheets.
Into this mix comes the very real possibility of a declining U.S. trade dollar, as a result of geopolitical conflict between the west and Russia, China, Iran and OPEC in the geography of Ukraine. The financial sanctions by NATO and western allies have factually created a rift in currency exchange valuations.
As the proverbial west hammers those sanctions even harder and more deliberately, what they are doing is creating a stronger and greater likelihood that the dollar will be removed as the global trade currency, and we will enter a phase where two sets of nations exist:
One set of nations will run their economy on oil, gas and fossil fuels. The other set of nations will be focused on running their economic engine on the premise of sustainability, or renewable energy.
The sanctions toward Russia actually help to drive this chasm even wider.
To me, this looks entirely purposeful – done by specific intent and design.
Two world groupings. One group, oil-based energy (traditional) – let’s label them the RED GROUP; and one group GREEN energy (the build back better plan). It is not accidental these two groups hold similar internal geopolitical views and perspectives.
♦ The important part to see is… there are going to be two sets of nations with two structurally different economies. A red group and a green group.
These two groups are going to end up in competition with each other. It is as inevitable as sunrise, if you can see this cleaving I am talking about.
Now, think about the economic system of trade that exists between the Red and Green groups. There has to be a way for them to exchange value if they are going to purchase from and sell to each other.
Additionally, and this is *key*, the Red group is going to have a strong strategic advantage in production costs. The Red group is going to be using oil, coal and gas (fossil fuels), which are abundant, cheap and the infrastructure is already in place.
The Green group is going to be at a strong disadvantage, at least for a generation or two, as the costs associated with the production of goods and systems is going to be much more expensive to operate, as the transition into Build Back Better sustainable or renewable energy takes place.
In the macro view, stuff from the Red group is going to be cheap. The exact same stuff from the Green group is going to be more expensive.
If you are still with me, hopefully, you can see how this is all coming together.
♦ The western debt incurred during COVID-19 is a problem. However, this debt diminishes with inflation. A $20 trillion debt is not as big a problem when bread costs $100/loaf and people are earning $50,000 a month. The Green group is entering into this position. In this position, the BlackRock approach of physical ownership of real estate and physical stuff is way more important than holding money or dollars which will immediately lose value. Physical ownership of stuff is important.
♦ It is likely, based on the economic alignment, the Green group will be forced to assemble under one currency (set of financial valuations), and the Red group will then assemble under their own currency (set of financial valuations). My hunch is the western group (green) will use a digital currency.
Once both sets of currencies are established, then trade between the Red group and Green group can be determined based on a central valuation done by, say, The World Bank. In the Red group, a 20″ tire is worth 100 red bucks. In the Green group, a 20″ tire is worth 150 digital green bucks. Two vaults and two exchanges.
In order for all of this to come together, the population needs to be shifted in their perspective of money and material value. That takes us back to where this conversation started: “owning nothing and being happy” is akin to “prizing experiences over possessions.”
The Western (green) financial mega-system operators are going to own the physical assets, and the people will live under that ownership – a modern structure of serfdom so-to-speak. In the largest nations within the Red group, that social system (essentially) already exists – India is a prime example.
If we can get President Trump back into office, and then rally massive support around him, he will dismantle this handbasket they are determined to put us into. However, I see no one else who is even remotely up to this challenge. We need Trump!
Joe Biden just told U.S. troops in Poland they are going into Ukraine.
Earlier today Joe Biden landed in Rzeszow, Poland, to get a firsthand look at international efforts to help some of the millions of Ukrainian refugees fleeing war in their country. While there, he delivered remarks to the 82nd Airborne who are bolstering NATO’s eastern flank.
During his remarks, Joe Biden stated the troops are going to see heroic acts by the ordinary men and women of Ukraine. He directly implied the 82nd airborne unit was going into Ukraine, and stated, “You are going to see when you are there.” Standing next to Biden while those statements were made, is U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. No one attempted to stop Biden from publicly saying we were sending troops into Ukraine. WATCH (prompted):
After making the remarks about the troops going into Ukraine, Biden went into his ideological talking points about Democracy vs Autocracy again. He’s literally completely oblivious to his own administration actions.
Almost the entirety of the Western government leadership including Scott Morrison (AU), Jacinda Ardern (NZ), Emmanuel Macron (FR), Justin Trudeau (CA) and Joe Biden have been far more authoritarian and autocratic in their COVID-19 rules, regulations and mandates than most non-western nations. It really is stunning that someone in the White House doesn’t pull him back from this talking point.
QUESTION: Dear Mr Armstrong. You previously mentioned that the chance for world war 3 will come to play after 2027 … but nowadays you are warning that those dead head’s in the west are pushing the world into world war 3 right now. Is there a change in the timeline? With much appreciation, Tal
ANSWER: The post-2024 period appears to be a significant global war – all-in sort of thing. But will also be intermixed with shortages in commodities thanks to also weather conditions. Currently, the Neocons who have control of the Biden Administration are totally insane. They have used an executive order to do these sanctions bypassing Congress for as long as they do not send troops, they claim it is not an official declaration of war that ONLY Congress can issue. They are showing to the entire world that the very authoritarian regimes they hate, Russian and China, are precisely what they are doing in the United States intentionally trying to invoke war which they fully understand will NOT be sanctioned by Congress or the people.
The Neocons try to invoke patriotism so we follow whatever they say blindly when this is not a fight that is in the national interest. This is a fight for their hatred and they have no problem spilling the blood of our children as if this were some board game of war that makes them feel better because they defeated their enemy. These Neocons are HIGHLY dangerous and they are the reason for war and the end of Western Civilization. They are the real threat to the national security and the future of our children and grandchildren.
Their strategy is taken right out of the war book used during the FDR Administration. This is precisely what FDR did to get the United States into World War II. He was frustrated because Congress would not authorize joining the war. When FDR went to Boston, the Irish lashed out at him saying that the British starved the Irish and they were now not going to go defend them. Many people who fled Europe to America was to be free of the hatred and politics in Europe. So it was NOT a popular idea of coming to the rescue of Europe which they fled.
The Neocons during the FDR Administration followed a clever agenda to circumvent Congress as they are doing right now. They were racists and simply hated the Japanese as is the case with Russian right now. They started in 1938 with a series of escalating highly restrictive trade restrictions imposed on Japan. The Neocons terminated the 1911 commercial treaty with Japan in 1939. They then tightened the Export Control Act of 1940, which was intended to prevent the scarcity of critical commodities in a likely prewar environment. In addition, this Act was directly targeting Japan to restrict the exportation of material to Imperial Japan.
This was followed by the United States embargoed scrap-metal shipments to Japan and closed the Panama Canal to Japanese shipping. The Neocons were seeking to isolate Japan without engaging in war that only Congress could declare Japan, at the time, imported about 74% of its scrap iron from the US and over 90% of its copper.
Then on July 26, 1941, the US seized all Japanese assets in the United States in retaliation for the Japanese occupation of French Indo-China as they have done today with Russia’s reserves. This was followed on August 1 with an oil embargo and gasoline exports to Japan which also came from the United States. The oil embargo was the last straw when 80% of its energy supply came from the USA. The US also was proposing intervening to prevent Japan from getting oil from other sources.
The complete U.S. oil embargo was the last straw. The Japanese had to then seize Southeast Asia for resources which expanded the war instead of the old hatred between China and Japan. They needed to do that before they ran out of resources. To secure themselves in the Pacific, they attacked Pearl Harbor with no intention of actually invading the United States.
The racism was highly dominant in WWII and that led to the imprisonment of all Japanese regardless if they were born in America. The prjudice became widespread and unfortunately, things are following along the same path. They have ERASED the name of the first man in space changing history all because is is just a Russian. The same hatred is emerging and this is a very dark sign for the future.
BOTH sides have their Neocons and these people will manipulate society to achieve their goals. We are just the poawns on the chess board and they have discovered their clever ways to create wars with sanctions which then instage the military response because the people themselves never wanty war.
COMMENT: Putin is a madman. He has invaded a sovereign nation and Russia has to pay for that.
SV
ANSWER: Obviously, you are believing the propaganda from the West. Putin has stated from the outset that he was NOT seeking to occupy or conquer Ukraine. Just look at the numbers. Estimates of Russian troop numbers in Ukraine have ranged from anywhere between 100,000 and 200,000 in recent weeks. Now, if he was intending to really “invade” a sovereign nation, you would assumed that the standard military strength that you want is between 2 to 3 times your opponent.
OK. So the question becomes: What is the size of the Ukrainian Army? That is about 297,000 and they are NATO trained forces. They are not farmers and hicks – but professional soldiers. So the press that portrays that Putin is losing and this is taking too long are all based upon the idea that the objective is conquest. But Putin has stated from the outset, and he has NOT deviated, that he wanted Ukraine to be demilitarized and remains as “NEUTRAL” as according to the Belgrade Agreement.
This is a PROXY war and Putin understand that now. Zelensky is unwilling to let Donbas go nore Crimea and his statement that he asked to join NATO was rejected, but he states the “door remains open” and NATO has trained the Ukrainian Army so they are up to NATO standards without formally being in NATO. Putin understand all of this. He has an army of 850,000 active personnel and 250,000 in reserve. China had 2,695,000.00 in 2018 and may be approaching 3 million right now.
The biggest NATO force in Europe is Turkey with about 445,000. The next is France with 208,000, Germany 1ith 189,000, Italy with 174,000, the UK with 156,000, Spain at 123,000, Poland 121,000, Greece 106,000, and everyone else under 100,000. The US has 1,352,000 and Canada 71,000. This means that in Europe, NATO has 1.3 million. If China assasited Russia, that would be a force of 3.7 million.
The problem this time is that the US has 1.3 million total, down from 2.2 million under Reagan. The US is clearly counting on non-conventional weapons. So have we reached the point where nukes are the ONLY line of defense?
You can see that Ukraine with 297,000 actually has the largest army in continental Europe that confronts Russia. Therefore, if Ukraine was part of NATO, it would have a conventional force of about 1.6 million including Turkey. That would outnumber Russia at about 1.1 million and that once again means a conventional attack on Russia would need to go nuclear to defend against Europe.
The risk of escalation here will be 8.6 weeks into this confrontation which will bring us to the week of April 18th, followed by the first week of May. The sanctions imposed on Russia are more than just insane, they have set in motion famine in Europe. Even French President Macron has been briefed on this real threat. He has urged an immediate emergency plan for food security at the G7 that has been triggered by the war in Ukraine. Moscow has urged that the longer the battle in Ukraine continues being the breadbasket of Europe, this war could result in “inevitable famine” as soon as 12 to 18 months from now. Because the bulk of the exports from Ukraine feed Northern Africa, he has warned this could be serious. Indeed, our model is pointing to rising civil unrest over food and corruption.
This DEMONIZING Putin is highly dangerous. All the Russian leaders see this as a proxy war and they will respond even much more aggressively if Putin was not there. My concern is the US keeps cheering on the Ukrainians and they NEVER have any strategy other than the immediate victory. The aftermath they seem to never consider. Remove Putin and this is an attack upon Russia and its culture, that pushes the world to the brink and we cannot rule out that it wo0uld be a warning to all of Europe by nuking Kyiv as a warning to all of Europe – is this what you really want?
COMMENT: Dear Martin, I am a frequent follower of your blog. I read your article tonight “ Putin puts Bidens King check mate” Being an economist myself with 30 years of experience I completely agree with your proposals of a two tier Ruble. I would fine tune it even further by backing the international ruble up with oil/gas and the domestic with Gold as you said!
This would be a genius move in my opinion. Thank you for your work and keep up the very insightful Job you are doing! I personally appreciate it a lot- quite frankly I only read …. & You Everything else is pure “ Mass psychosis influenser propaganda” backing a Political agenda. Good luck in sending the right advise to Russia! Not because I lőve Russia being a Hungarian but because supplying Russia with Smart financial and economic advise will bring restoration of peace ASAP which is the interest of the whole world!
Kind Regards,
Viktor
REPLY: Thank you. That is a good idea for we are dealing with the catastrophic collapse of the monetary system of the world. I do not think this will end well. It is ironic, but I try to defeat my own computer. I have never won yet. In the words of Rodney King – Why can’t we just all get along?
COMMENT #1: Hi Mr. Armstrong, I hope you are doing well. Talking about Neocons, as a boy, 12 years old, I’ve survived the Yugoslavia bombing by NATO 1999 and Madeleine Albright was one of the biggest influencers to attack Yugoslavia where many civilians died. She died on the same date when they decided to attack Yugoslavia 23 years ago. I guess cycles are everywhere. Thanks for all that you do. Best regards, M
COMMENT #2: The US killed countless civilians in Yugoslavia. We will never for get that.
K
COMMENT #3: dear Marty, dear Team, thank you for your unique analyses which help me to understand how our world really functions. please help me to understand what NEOCONS are. thank you. Victor
V
REPLY: Madeleine Albright I met once and the feeling I got was one of a deep seated coldness. She, along with Hillary, were Neocons, which are NOT the Deep State which tends to be the agencies who are more focused on domestic power. The Neocons cannot sleep at night worrying about international enemies who must be defeated. Albright would conjure up hatred for a leader to justify attacking them with no regard for all the other people who die in such conflicts.
Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright introduced Hillary Clinton at an event in New Hampshire, telling the crowd and voters in general: “There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other!” President Bill Clinton named Albright the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations shortly after he was inaugurated in 1993.
Albright was true to her convictions that were immovable and she never had a problem waging war. Some would say she was more ruthless than any man just so she could climb that latter of equality. I think that certainly applies to Hillary.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Do you think Putin is a victim?
HJ
ANSWER: No, I think he has been played like a fiddle. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, has come out and said:
“This is not about Ukraine at all, but the world order. The current crisis is a fateful, epoch-making moment in modern history. It reflects the battle over what the world order will look like.”
There is no black and white. BOTH sides have their Neocons who just always want war. Their lives are filled with hate. While the Neocons have control of the Biden Administration, make no mistake about it, the Neocons behind Putin want far more aggressiveness than what Putin has shown. They would nuke Kyiv in the blink of an eye as a warning to the West. Three high ranking people have all come out and threatened nuclear war. The #2 guy has praised Stalin’s Great Purge as necessary. Remove Putin, and you just may get someone far worse. Stalin could kill 10 million people in an afternoon and go celebrate with a fine dinner, caviar, and wine.
The Neocons know that getting you to hate Putin, they can use that to justify war. There is no justice in war. Even Wikipedia includes that Vietnamese never fired on us and Johnson remarked after lying to the nation that for all he knew, they were shooting at wales. That was a proxy war for they hated Communists. We lost over 50,000 boys for their games. Communism fell of its own inefficiencies – not because of Neocons who still hate China and Russia.
There was no Weapons of Mass Destruction to justify Iraq, nor did the Spanish blow up the Maine. Even Hearst told Fredrick Remington that if he supplied the photos, Hearst would create the war.
We have been plagued by people ON BOTH SIDES who are filled with hatred and just want to annihilate their opponent. I can scream all I want. I have tried to defeat my own computer and have been unable to do so even once.
If they have you hating Putin, that is their goal for they need that hatred to justify a Declaration of War which can only come from Congress. Once they get that, the missiles will fly. So be careful, they will appeal to your sense of justice that Putin should be punished, but that entails far more than they imagine. They NEVER think beyond that objective. They removed Saddam and created ISIS who he kept in check. They waged their war antics against Libya and Syria.They just always need to hate someone – that is what has consumed them.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Everything else is pure “ Mass psychosis influenser propaganda” backing a Political agenda. Good luck in sending the right advise to Russia! Not because I lőve Russia being a Hungarian but because supplying Russia with Smart financial and economic advise will bring restoration of peace ASAP which is the interest of the whole world!
Centinel2012 