Category India

Apr 11 2022

Biden Schedules Meeting With India Prime Minister to “Discuss” Russian Trade and Sanction Compliance


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 10, 2022 | sundance 

Against the backdrop of increased Russia-India trade {link}, and the BRICS discussions about new trade payment mechanisms to avoid being shackled to the dollar {link}, it would appear the people behind the White House operation to create/maintain conflict with Russia are scheduling a stern conversation with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

WHITE HOUSE – ” President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. will meet virtually with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India on Monday, April 11 to further deepen ties between our governments, economies, and our people. President Biden and Prime Minister Modi will discuss cooperation on a range of issues.” …

“President Biden will continue our close consultations on the consequences of Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine and mitigating its destabilizing impact on global food supply and commodity markets.” (read more)

The message from the White House will likely be akin to: ‘Nice country of 1.5 billion hungry people you got there Modi.  With all this talk of global famine going around, it’d be a shame if you couldn’t feed them.’ Oh, and by the way, did you happen to catch what just rolled out in Pakistan?  Imagine that – what with common borders and such… 

For those unfamiliar, it appears the DoS/CIA were up to their old tricks again, because Pakistan was favorable to the position of China and Russia in the Ukraine conflict and would not take sides with NATO and western allied leaders.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted through a majority parliamentary no-confidence vote early Sunday, that smells identical to the way Obama/Biden DoS/CIA ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

(VOA) – […] Khan is the first prime minister to be ousted by a no-confidence vote in Pakistan, but no democratically elected prime minister has served a full five-year term since the founding of the country in 1947.

The repeatedly delayed no-confidence vote against Khan was held after the country’s Supreme Court ruled last week he had acted unconstitutionally when he previously blocked the no-confidence vote, and subsequently dissolved parliament.

The embattled Pakistani leader had defended his blocking of the vote, alleging that the no-confidence motion was the result of the United States meddling in his country’s politics.

Washington rejected the charges, saying there was “no truth” to them. (read more)

Western media is full of (pro-western) spin on the background of the Pakistani issues, but regional media see exactly how the DoS/CIA operate with their lucrative intelligence bribes to ISI officials in Pakistan.   That’s the same m.o. the CIA used in Egypt – paying the Muslim Brotherhood and giving them resources to remove Mubarak.   The coincidences are too coincidental to be coincidental.

(VIA ABC) – […] Khan has claimed the U.S. worked behind the scenes to bring him down, purportedly because of Washington’s displeasure over his independent foreign policy choices, which often favor China and Russia. He has occasionally defied America and stridently criticized America’s post 9/11 war on terror. Khan said America was deeply disturbed by his visit to Russia and his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 24, the start of the devastating war in Ukraine.  The U.S. State Department has denied his allegations. (more)

India and Pakistan have long been in conflict with each other.  The U.S. has always exploited this conflict as leverage in both countries, using intelligence and DoS operatives in Pakistan (major bribes), and using diplomatic/geopolitical and economic pressure in India.

That painful history of political extortion stopping is why India was so excited to have President Donald Trump in office.

President Trump spoke frankly to the Pakistani government about his expectations to stop supporting extremism (Taliban) in Afghanistan, and simultaneously Trump was honest and earnest with India using trade agreements that benefitted both the U.S. and India through his Indo-Pacific framework. {Go Deep – The Trump Doctrine}

Now, Biden turns back to leverage Modi by saying we’ve got the club back in charge and our tools ready in Pakistan.  If Modi keeps supporting Russia, suddenly the U.S. might provide discounted weapons and enhanced capabilities to Pakistan.  Nudge-Nudge, Wink-Wink….  Say no more.

I hate how the Fourth Branch of Government operates.

Americans in general are in an abusive and forced codependency relationship with our own government.  Unfortunately, most do not see it.

.

...”I’ve had a great relationship with the Indians. In Delaware, the largest growth in population is Indian-Americans moving from India. You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking.” ~ Racist Joe

Apr 10 2022

BRICS Ministers of Finance Hold a Meeting – It Is Time to Replace Western Financial Trade Mechanisms and Remove The Dollar


Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 9, 2022 

This is not some grand conspiracy, ‘out there‘ deep geopolitical possibility, or foreboding likelihood as an outcome of short-sighted western emotion.  No, this is just a predictable outcome from western created events that pushed specific countries to a natural conclusion based on their best interests.

You can debate the motives of the western leaders who structured the sanctions against Russia, and whether they knew the outcome would happen as a consequence of their effort, but the outcome was never really in doubt.  Personally, I believe this outcome is what the west intended. The people inside the World Economic Forum are not stupid – ideological, yes, but not stupid. They knew this would happen.

[Left to Right] Xi Jinping (China), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India) and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), the BRICS group.

The finance ministers of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have decided to create their own financial mechanisms to continue trade between nations of similar disposition.  Once the internal issues inside the BRICS alliance are resolved, and once the mechanisms are created, then other nations will be able to decide to join or not.  The great global cleaving will commence.

(Reuters) – Russia, hit by Western sanctions, has called on the BRICS group of emerging economies to extend the use of national currencies and integrate payment systems, the finance ministry said on Saturday.

[…] On Friday, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told a ministerial meeting with BRICS, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, that the global economic situation had worsened substantially due to the sanctions, the ministry’s statement said.

The new sanctions also destroy the foundation of the existing international monetary and financial system based on the U.S. dollar, Siluanov said.

“This pushes us to the need to speed up work in the following areas: the use of national currencies for export-import operations, the integration of payment systems and cards, our own financial messaging system and the creation of an independent BRICS rating agency,” Siluanov said.

International payment cards Visa and MasterCard suspended operations in Russia in early March and Russia’s biggest banks have lost access to the SWIFT global banking messaging system.

Russia set up its own banking messaging system, known as SPFS, as an alternative to SWIFT. Its own card payment system MIR began operating in 2015.

[…] They were part of Moscow’s efforts to develop homegrown financial tools to mirror Western ones, to protect the country in case penalties against Moscow were broadened.

The finance ministry said BRICS ministers have confirmed the importance of cooperation in efforts to stabilise the current economic situation.

“The current crisis is man-made, and the BRICS countries have all necessary tools to mitigate its consequences for their economies and the global economy as a whole,” Siluanov said. (link)

For a deep dive on BRICS, as predicted by CTH, {SEE HERE}.  The bottom line is – the 2022 punitive economic and financial sanctions by the western nations’ alliance against Russia was exactly the reason why BRICS assembled in the first place.

The multinational corporate control of government is exactly what the BRICS assembly foresaw when they first assembled during the Obama administration.  When multinational corporations run the policy of western government, there is going to be a problem.

In the bigger picture, the BRICS assembly are essentially leaders who do not want corporations and multinational banks running their government. BRICS leaders want their government running their government; and yes, that means whatever form of government that exists in their nation, even if it is communist.

BRICS leaders are aligned as anti-corporatist.  That doesn’t necessarily make those government leaders better stewards, it simply means they want to make the decisions, and they do not want corporations to become more powerful than they are.  As a result, if you really boil it down to the common denominator, what you find is the BRICS group are the opposing element to the World Economic Forum assembly.

The countries run by multinational corporations are in Yellow, the countries who have not yet chosen a side are in GREY:

The BRICS team intend to create an alternative option for all the other nations. An alternative to the current western trade and financial platforms operated on the use of the dollar as a currency.  Perhaps many nations will use both financial mechanisms depending on their need.

The objective of the BRICS group is simply to present an alternative trade mechanism that permits them to conduct business regardless of the opinion of the multinational corporations in the ‘western alliance.’

Mar 29 2022

Did the Globalists Just Flinch on Russian Sanctions in Order to Keep Control of Global Climate Change Goals?


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 28, 2022 

Something odd is happening in the background of the G7 energy ministers’ announcement earlier today.

Remember that moment {HERE} when Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland seemed really uncomfortable and weird at the presser – just 36 hours before the Trudeau administration announced they were going to drop the Emergency Act banking sanctions against the truckers? {Go Deep}

Here is an encapsulation of what’s weird, and you don’t have to be an expert in geopolitics and international trade to see it:

The G7 countries (including the U.S.) announced today they were demanding that Russia accept payment for oil and gas in euros and dollars.  This is happening at the same time NATO is demanding (via sanctions) that Russia be blocked from accepting payments in euros and dollars.

Something is weird.  Keep in mind, the same nations in the G7 are the same nations in NATO with the exception of Japan (G7 only).

The only way this conflict could make any sense, is if the G7 energy ministers realize that forcing Russia to trade in non-euros and non-dollars will structurally undermine the G7 unilateral hold of global finance and energy policy.   In essence, the G7 see the non-sanction countries, particularly India and China, lining up to replace the petro-dollar, and that not only weakens their position financially, but it also weakens their climate change position.

Saudi Arabia is not returning phone calls from the Biden administration, and the extended OPEC-plus are not following the sanctions regime of the western NATO alliance.  Which makes sense, because Opec+ includes Russia, and the geopolitical dynamic appears to have fractured around the energy sector, with the western alliance chasing renewable energy and the non-sanction countries staying on course with oil and gas.

The conflicting position toward Russia, insofar as the G7 demands they keep selling using euros/dollars while NATO demands Russia stop receiving euros/dollars, remains brutally stark.  It is a conflicting interest, within the same policies, within the same geopolitical group.

Behind the G7 and NATO, we know the multinational corporations assembled in the World Economic Forum are ultimately the driver of political policy. The central bankers, finance ministers and politicians all operate under the guidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) and World Trade Organization (WTO).

Together the WEF, IMF, WB, WTO, EU central banks and U.S. federal reserve, collectively represent what we call the globalists.  And the globalists are pushing the climate change agenda hard {WEF LINK}.

The conflicting position, with G7 energy ministers demanding Russia accept payments in Euros/Dollars, can only be reconciled if the globalist crew is worried about the fracturing we have previously discussed. {Go Deep}

However, if the globalist team only just now realized their sanctions have created a cleaving of the world energy trade system using dollars to pay for oil/gas purchases, and by extension this weakens their objective to force everyone to accept climate change objectives, they would be fools.

Something weird is going on here.  I’m not certain what it is, but I am confident something really odd is again happening in the background.

It is always important to remember the ultimate goal of the ‘climate change’ promotors is not an energy system that changes the global climate. The goal of the ‘climate change’ group is to create a carbon trading system; a new financial mechanism (a global tax program) to control human activity on a world-wide basis.  This system also needs a digital identity in order to work.

As a consequence, when we look at the fracturing of the global energy marketplace, it is worth viewing the divided group through the prism of the globalist carbon trading scheme.

My hunch is the demand for Russia to accept payment in euros and dollars is directly connected to the G7 worrying about losing climate change leverage with the non-sanction countries around the issue of energy.   For the globalists, it’s not just the loss of the petro-dollar at stake, it’s losing the accompanying leverage they have to enforce their climate change mission.

That’s the only thing that makes this internal conflict make sense.

Mar 26 2022

China Backs Russia – they are All-In


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Mar 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

https://youtube.com/watch?v=sMo2IyePOV4%3Ffeature%3Doembed%26wmode%3Dopaque

QUESTION: Marty; I remember when the Chinese central bank said they were using capital flow analysis which is your model. You said China should buy US debt directly from the Treasury and not the NY bankers. They did that in a matter of weeks. So when they say they are on the right side of history, are they talking about your model forecasting they will replace the US as the financial capital of the world?

NH

ANSWER: You have to understand that Asians believe in cycles. They are part of their religion. Richard E. Nesbett wrote an interesting book entitled “The Geography of Thought, How Asians and Westerners Think Differently … and why.” He attributed his work to a Chinese student who said, “You know, the difference between you and me is that I think the world is a Circle, and you think it’s a line.” He goes on to quote him:

“The Chinese believe in constant change, but with things always moving back to some prior state. They pay attention to wide range of events; they search for relationships between things; and they think you can’t understand the part without understanding the whole. Westerners live in a simpler, more deterministic world; they focus on salient objects or people instead of the larger picture; and they think they can control events because they know the rules that govern the behavior of objects.”

In my 40 years of dealing with governments, I NEVER had to explain cyclical theory in Asia – only to American & European who do think always on a linear basis. They apply this to analysis like climate change. The temperature has risen say 5 degrees on years and they project that out and say we will all die in 7 years. NEVER does the West ever forecast cyclically – it is always linearly.

China understand cycles – we do not. They understand the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city states. They understand that Communism failed for it tried to defeat human nature. They see the future cyclically and that is what they are saying that they will be on the right side of history. They know the West is crumbing from within. The time that the US hands that title to China is upon the doorstep. The West has done nothing but try to force their ideas upon everyone abandoning freedom and they have introduced the cancelation culture. We have lost all the values that made America great. It is time for Europe and American to die the same way all empires die, by their own hand of suicide.

China being on the “right side of history” means they know the United States is declining and they will step into the void. They can “feel” it with or without my models.

Mar 26 2022

India-Russia Rupee-Ruble Financial Trade Arrangement Could Be Ready in a Week


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 25, 2022 

The Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO) announced today they are likely to have the financial mechanism for a Russia-India currency exchange and trade process in place within a week.   Previously, India announced their decision to continue purchasing oil from Russia despite the western sanctions.  Prime Minister Modi is a pragmatic, tactical and shrewd business-minded politician.

India is becoming a major player in the geopolitical world, as recognized by former President Trump during his Indo-Pacific trade partnership discussions.  The population of India is over 1.4 billion people, and they are industrializing as a more democratic counterbalance to China. Prime Minister Modi has been a key political leader in generating economic alliances to the benefit of his nation, while maintaining a prudent stiff-arm toward the influence of major multinational corporations.

(Via CNBC) – India is expected to announce a payment arrangement that would allow trade with Russia to continue, the president of an Indian exporters’ association told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Wednesday. 

The so-called rupee-ruble trade mechanism could come as early as next week, according to A Sakthivel, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO).  The FIEO, a government-backed association representing over 200,000 exporters, oversees India’s export promotion councils.

India’s finance ministry and the Reserve Bank of India have not commented so far on the mechanism, which would let Indian exporters continue their business with Russia even after Western sanctions restricted international payment mechanisms. The arrangement would also allow India to buy Russian energy exports and other goods.

Sakthivel said the Indian government is working on a proposal to allow four to five nationalized Indian banks to be engaged in the trade, and there have been consultations between the central bank governor, the finance minister and banks.  (more)

(Left to Right) – Xi Jinping (China), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India) and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), the BRICS group.

REMINDER –  Stand back and look at the biggest of the big pictures.

A Build Back Better society, or “great reset”, is factually underway as triggered by the gateway of SARS-CoV-2 and the massive spending by western nations to subsidize the lockdowns, shut-downs, economic closures and forced unemployment.

Global inflation is being driven not only by the American spending spree, but also by the massive government spending programs of the EU, U.K, New Zealand, Australia, Canada and many western nations.

The bills for those subsidies and bailouts are due.  The labor of the citizens is going to have to pay those bills, while simultaneously we deal with inflation and massive debt balances on all nations’ balance sheets.

Into this mix comes the very real possibility of a declining U.S. trade dollar, as a result of geopolitical conflict between the west and Russia, China, Iran and OPEC in the geography of Ukraine.   The financial sanctions by NATO and western allies have factually created a rift in currency exchange valuations.

As the proverbial west hammers those sanctions even harder and more deliberately, what they are doing is creating a stronger and greater likelihood that the dollar will be removed as the global trade currency, and we will enter a phase where two sets of nations exist:

One set of nations will run their economy on oil, gas and fossil fuels.  The other set of nations will be focused on running their economic engine on the premise of sustainability, or renewable energy.

The sanctions toward Russia actually help to drive this chasm even wider.

To me, this looks entirely purposeful – done by specific intent and design.

Two world groupings.  One group, oil-based energy (traditional) – let’s label them the RED GROUP; and one group GREEN energy (the build back better plan).  It is not accidental these two groups hold similar internal geopolitical views and perspectives.

♦ The important part to see is… there are going to be two sets of nations with two structurally different economies. A red group and a green group.

These two groups are going to end up in competition with each other.  It is as inevitable as sunrise, if you can see this cleaving I am talking about.

Now, think about the economic system of trade that exists between the Red and Green groups.  There has to be a way for them to exchange value if they are going to purchase from and sell to each other.

Additionally, and this is *key*, the Red group is going to have a strong strategic advantage in production costs.  The Red group is going to be using oil, coal and gas (fossil fuels), which are abundant, cheap and the infrastructure is already in place.

The Green group is going to be at a strong disadvantage, at least for a generation or two, as the costs associated with the production of goods and systems is going to be much more expensive to operate, as the transition into Build Back Better sustainable or renewable energy takes place.

In the macro view, stuff from the Red group is going to be cheap.  The exact same stuff from the Green group is going to be more expensive.

If you are still with me, hopefully, you can see how this is all coming together.

♦ The western debt incurred during COVID-19 is a problem.  However, this debt diminishes with inflation.  A $20 trillion debt is not as big a problem when bread costs $100/loaf and people are earning $50,000 a month.   The Green group is entering into this position.  In this position, the BlackRock approach of physical ownership of real estate and physical stuff is way more important than holding money or dollars which will immediately lose value.  Physical ownership of stuff is important.

♦ It is likely, based on the economic alignment, the Green group will be forced to assemble under one currency (set of financial valuations), and the Red group will then assemble under their own currency (set of financial valuations).  My hunch is the western group (green) will use a digital currency.

Once both sets of currencies are established, then trade between the Red group and Green group can be determined based on a central valuation done by, say, The World Bank.   In the Red group, a 20″ tire is worth 100 red bucks.  In the Green group, a 20″ tire is worth 150 digital green bucks.  Two vaults and two exchanges.

In order for all of this to come together, the population needs to be shifted in their perspective of money and material value.   That takes us back to where this conversation started: “owning nothing and being happy” is akin to “prizing experiences over possessions.”

The Western (green) financial mega-system operators are going to own the physical assets, and the people will live under that ownership – a modern structure of serfdom so-to-speak.  In the largest nations within the Red group, that social system (essentially) already exists – India is a prime example.

If we can get President Trump back into office, and then rally massive support around him, he will dismantle this handbasket they are determined to put us into.  However, I see no one else who is even remotely up to this challenge.   We need Trump!

Mar 24 2022

Should we Cheer for Putin to Lose?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

While the Neocon strategy of DEMONIZING an adversary as they have done to Putin, the very same strategy was used to get people to absolutely hate Donald Trump. The more someone hates Trump still, the more susceptible they are to simple techniques of mind manipulation. This has led many to cheer for the Ukrainians to defeat Russians and we have the White House calling Putin a War Criminal when you could say the same thing about the US leaders that started the endless saga of wars on false pretenses or took out civils with drones when they wrongly thought they were terrorists.

The White House appears to be under the influence of the Neocons who just always advocate war. Make no mistake about it, these Neocons are not confined to just the Democrats or Republicans. They share a love for war and the hatred of everyone they perceive to be an enemy. It’s tempting to think that Putin will suffer a defeat and democracy could revive in Russia, but a more likely scenario is total world chaos. Russia is also comprised of Muslims who number about 14 million or roughly 10% of the total population. Then there are different cultures and you will see internal chaos and separatist movements armed with nukes.

Putin is not a fool and he is actually honoring his word. He is not trying to conquer Ukraine. His column of tanks had stopped as a show of force and intimidation. He has not ordered just total annihilation. The US strategy is we go in and flatten everything targeting water and power grid. Put took the power station but did not turn off the power. The West portrays this as Putin is stalled and the Ukrainians could defeat the Russians. But this seems to be propaganda all designed to wear down the moral of the Russian troops and sway public opinion for Ukraine.

While the press also portrays that Putin’s nation has now been subjected to an isolation greater than any nation has ever experienced by any major power in history, it was US sanctions to cut off the fuel to Japan that caused them to attack Pearl Harbor. There were later even Congressional investigations into FDR and did he deliberately try to create a situation to get the USA into World War II. Congress simply said the allegations were inconclusive.

Since late February, Russia has been hit with punishing economic, trade and financial sanctions. Putin struck back and said all energy sales to unfriendly nations will now be in Rubles. Saudi Arabia also agreed with China to sell oil in Yuan. These are historically critical events that have torn the world economy asunder. There will NEVER BE A RETURN TO NORMAL.

So while the Western Press cheers and reports that Russia is careering toward a debt default, they forget that the default will be on the West. A very rapid technological decoupling is also underway dividing the world economy and that will threaten free trade and the end of economic growth. Indeed, US GDP Growth rate peaked in real terms.

The mass withdrawal of American firms from Russia will have a profoundly negative impact moving forward and the world economy is shrinking rapidly. Russia isn’t some weak power like Iraq. Russia is a major power whose population was, until recently, deeply connected to its larger global environment. The White House thinks that Russians will blame Putin rather than Biden. Eastern European states like Serbia and in the Middle East are looking at the United States as the problem being arrogant and interfering in everyone else’s affairs. It is without question that the United States has declare war on Russia. This is how World War II began with countries attacking one another in the financial markets.

So while the Neocons lick their lips at the thought of overturning Putin and controlling Russia before they turn on China, they are clearly not looking long-term. They took out Saddam Hussein who kept the religious zealots in their place. Once he was removed, the Middle East saw the rise of ISIS. The US has been covertly funding the Ukrainian Nazis to keep up their fight against Donbass.

Let us may no mistake here. The Neocons pushed and funded through the CIS the Taliban for then they were the anti-Soviet resistance. The CIA Special Activities Division sent paramilitary officers to equip the Mujihadeen forces against the Soviet Army. The US therefore funded Taliban mainly to assist in ending the Soviet’s occupation in Afghanistan. However, the Neocons can never think past the end of their nose. They have no long-term strategies, only win what is immediately in front of them. The taliban benefited from expanded foreign military support from the United States. They then used that training against US troops who were in search of terrorists from 911.

The foolish view among the Neocons is they think bringing Democracy to the Middle East or now to Russia and China will somehow make them friends or stable is an absolute joke. The idea of creating a “Moscow Spring” by punishing the Russian people until they do what the CIS and Neocons demand does not make the costs of conflict lead worth it. Marx brought his ideas and it cost over 200 million lives to install communism. America is hated for its interference by the Neocons in many circles.

Both China and Russia have American arrogance as a common enemy and the Russian or Chinese people will not send them flowers and Xmas cards thanking them for destroy everything they have built since 1989. However, RELIABLE sources in the Middle East, the UAE, Egypt and even Israel are angry over Biden’s sanctions. Yet the Neocons claim that total isolation forced regime change in South Africa. However, they also had no military power to fight back. That is like claiming a fight is fair with one kid has a rubber band and the other a baseball bat.

Somebody in Washington needs to start thinking strategically and realistically about this endeavor to isolate Russia for all that is unfolding at a rapid rate is the disintegration of the world economy. In 1989, then President George H.W. Bush understood there were serious risks with the collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism. Russia is big and powerful enough that its role in the world economy is vital to the overall health of the international order . The US NEEDS Russia as an economic friend not and adversary for nobody will win with that result.

The Western propaganda is that Russia and China represent authoritarian rule. However, Western governments are no better. Sure, we have elections but then the candidate arrives in Washington and they are told they will vote according to the Party Agenda rendering the image of free elections only just that. In Europe, the people do not vote for the Commission which makes the laws nor for the head of state. We do not live in a Democracy for the people never are allowed to vote on an issue like war or peace.

The likelihood of Putin being overthrown and Democracy is sudden born has less than a zero change of ever being correct.

Mar 24 2022

It’s Not Just Energy – It’s Also Metals


Armstrong Economics Blog/Base Metals Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The outrageous sanctions imposed by Biden on Russia has undermined the entire world economy. Sanctions have never worked and this time they were designed to try to hurt the Russian people so profoundly that they would overthrow Putin. The Ukrainians are even naming Alexander Bortnikov, the Russian Director of the Federal Security Service and a member of Putin’s inner circle, as a successor to the president. Bortnikov has come out and said that Stalin’s Great Purge was necessary whereas Putin rejected Lenin. Be careful what you wish for, as they say.

Stickers are showing up plastered all over gasoline pumps throughout the USA despite Biden trying to blame Putin for his the disruption to the world economy. The US had no national security issue at risk with either Crimea nor DonBass. The Neocons just hate Putin and have used Ukraine as a proxy war toy to get at Putin. Even in Poland the government is pushing for war. Europe desperately needs war for 8.6 years of NEGATIVE interest rates has wiped out pension funds. NY banks will no longer lend against European sovereign debt. They cannot fund the governments any longer and the central bank cannot buy their debt endlessly. The only solution that they see is to default under the pretense of the Great Reset so they NEED war as the diversion with a new Bretton Woods.

But Biden’s sanctions have gone far beyond just energy. Nickel is a vital for it is the largest component in stainless steel production. Alloy steel is also called special steel. Nickel can increase the strength of the alloy and maintain its good plasticity and toughness. Then nickel is also used in the field of batteries, mainly nickel-hydrogen batteries, chromium-nickel batteries, and nickel-manganese batteries. Lastly, very fine nickel powder is often used as a catalyst in the chemical industry. Hence, nickel is vital and it goes beyond just the coins in your pocket which at these prices will be worth more in metal content soon enough.

Yet these sanctions that Biden swore would target only Russia, have disrupted the entire world and not just energy. Tsingshan Holding Group is a major producer of Nickel and it sold hedging position forward to secure its production. But prices doubled thanks to Biden and Tsingshan tried to buy back its hedging positions and that has set off a collapse of the Nickel market in London. Nickel was already breaking out thanks to COVID restrictions. Then the Biden Russian sanctions were insane and you can see the drastic price rally as Tsingshan tried to buy back its hedge.

Nickel prices began to soar after Biden’s sanction on Russia. The rally became a crisis for the LME as producers such as Tsingshan’s brokers desperately tried to buy those nickel contracts back causing a near 70% rise in a single session to stem losses and avoid escalating margin calls. The trading became erradic as brokers kept trying to cover short hedged positions. Hedge funds and other participants were frantically buying nickel, which only propelled the market even higher. Nickel prices had more than doubled reaching more than $100,000 a metric ton.

The LME was sent into crisis. Several smaller brokers were saying they would default at the 9 a.m. margin call if prices stayed at those levels. The LME was forced to suspend the market shortly after 8 a.m. local time or suffer a catastropiuc collapse of the exchange. The brokers could not meet the expected margin calls. Thus, the LME adopted the drastic step of canceling trades that took place before the suspension. They is said to have wiped out $3.9 billion in transactions. Of course, the hedge funds were furious for they were looking a huge unrealized profits. Because of the sudden price shock, the LME had no choice but to suspend trading in hopes that the brokers would collect the funds from their clients. However, the decision to wipe out trades that took place in a free market in good faith is really unprecedented and has shaken the confidence in free markets.

It may be true that the suspension and the canceled trades to settle the catastrophic damage to the free markets created by the Biden sanctions has prevented a near-term collapse of the LME. However, failing to do so may have brought down the entire exchange ending the market where producers can hedge forward.

Tsingshan still owes its brokers, which included JPMorgan, Standard Chartered and BNP as well as a unit of state-owned China Construction Bank Corp. The demand for cash to settle margin calls for a hedger who has sold future production presents a serious crisis. There are serious questions being raised if the price seen in this spike truly reflects the shortage in the supply or just an aberition created by a short-term panic.

Ironically, it was the great expanse of China’s economy which drove Nickel to $54200 a metric ton back in 2007. Nevertheless, where our computer has been bullish on Nickel and it elected even the third Quarterly Bullish Reversal at the end of the 3rd quarter 2021. There was no way the market was heading lower. Clearly, those in charge of hedging were calling the shots from an opinion perspective – not quantitative. For early 2021, Tsingshan began to accumulate a short position. It made statements on its website reflecting its view that the Nickel market was flush and prices should decline. Tsingshan’s short hedge position was equivalent to having sold about 190,000 metric tons on the LME. That would be worth $9.1 billion based on closing prices.

The forecasting view of Tsingshan regarding Nickel is just unfounded. Our model showed that we would start to see a rise in 2022 in price volatility but this is continuing into 2024. The price high may not arrive until 2023 and we may be looking at a new record. This is just another domino in the future of the world economy that just fell over. These Biden Sanctions are not going to be reversed and the pride of politicians is now threatening the entire world economy.

You have not made any comment about the LME Nickel market. In my opinion, this is onether chip of the domino falling which comes to confirm that the collapse of the West is in motion. The loss at Tsingshan is said to be about $8 billion. I have been called in to similar crisis where major corporations have lost billions due to improper hedging. This amount is staggering and clearly reflects that the firm has totally incompetent people in charge of hedging who may be listening to bankers and fundamentals rather than the markets.

Mar 19 2022

BRICS Is Working, India Purchases 3 million Barrels Russian Crude This Week


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 18, 2022 | Sundance

A report in the AP shows the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) trade alliance seems to remain strong despite western sanctions.  India admitted to purchasing 3 million barrels of Russian oil at a 20% discount rate this week.

There’s no mention of how the purchase will be transacted, what currency they would use; however, the top-line story of India refusing to follow western trade sanctions reflects the BRICS alliance is delivering economic results.

[Via AP] – […] NEW DELHI — The state-run Indian Oil Corp. bought 3 million barrels of crude oil from Russia earlier this week to secure its energy needs, resisting Western pressure to avoid such purchases, an Indian government official said Friday.

The official said India has not imposed sanctions against buying oil and will be looking to purchase more from Russia despite calls not to from the U.S. and other countries.

The United States, Britain and other western countries are urging India to avoid buying Russian oil and gas. Indian media reports said Russia was offering a discount on oil purchases of 20% below global benchmark prices.

Such prices have surged in recent weeks, posing a huge burden for countries like India, which imports 85% of the oil it consumes. Its demand is projected to jump 8.2% this year to 5.15 million barrels per day as the economy recovers from the devastation caused by the pandemic. (read more)

(L-R) Chairman Xi Jinping (China), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India) and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), the BRICS group.

 

Mar 16 2022

Russia, India Exploring New Trade Payment Channels in Aftermath of Sanctions


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 15, 2022

The BRICS trade and economic partnership group is made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa {GO DEEP}.  The alliance was originated in part to explore alternatives to the dollar as a global trade currency.  They discussed several options in their prior meetings long before Russia took action into Ukraine.

With western sanctions against Russia now in place, there are increasing reports that China and India have developed alternatives.  This is one such example:

(Via LiveMint) – Russia, many of whose banks have been cut off from the Swift financial network, is exploring opening alternative payment channels with India, including linking Unified Payments Interface (UPI) with the Faster Payments System (FPS) of the Bank of Russia, to continue cross-border trade.

According to Dmitry A. Solodov, a spokesperson for the Russian embassy in New Delhi, his government has also asked Indian lenders to connect to the financial messaging system of the Bank of Russia to facilitate interbank transactions. In addition, the two sides are discussing accepting RuPay and MIR Cards within national payment infrastructures, Solodov said in an emailed statement.

“All these options are on the table and are being discussed by the two governments, the Reserve Bank of India and the Bank of Russia,” said a senior Indian government official, requesting anonymity. (read more)

Xi Jinping (China), Vladimir Putin (Russia), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India) and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa), the BRICS group.
Mar 9 2022

India Journalist States This is a War of the West’s Creation


Armstrong Econmics Blog/India Re-Posted Mar 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It is so refreshing to listen to a REAL journalist for once – something was seriously forgotten in America and Europe. Arnab Goswami is an Indian news anchor and journalist, who is the managing director and editor-in-chief of Republic Media Network. He is calling this as it is – a Western creation of WAR against Russia for political purposes. The US and Britain are telling India to join their fight against Russia, which will be to their own demise.

Meanwhile, Poland is putting itself in the line of fire jeopardizing its population inviting Russia to attack it as a ploy to bring in NATO. The Polish authorities announced their readiness to transfer MIG-29 aircraft to the Rammstein base and asked the US to provide “used aircraft with similar operational capabilities”. Poland said ready to immediately agree on the terms of the purchase of these machines. This would put Poland in the direct line of fire just as the Lusitania was used to get the US into WWI.

Unfortunately, governments look upon us as worker bees. They could care less about us and we are so stupid we really think governments are there to protect us when it is always them against us.  Just read Thomas Paine’s opening paragraph. Nothing has changed since 1776. They are trying to wage an all-out war against Russia and are mustering forces but the only defense will then be nuclear.