Bloomberg 2020 Interview Dow Will Go to 40,000


Posted 0riginally on Jun 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

Deep Dive Radio Interview PT V Election Predictions


Posted originally on Jun 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Those in nations where Rumble is banned may watch the interview on X by clicking here.

Did Real Estate Peak with the ECM in May 2024?


Posted originally on Jun 25, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Shiller_U.S._National_Home_Price_Index 6 24 24

COMMENT: Marty, you are by far the greatest long-term forecaster ever. I worked on the floor in 2007 when the market crashed on the exact day of your ECM. Everyone called it Armstrong’s Revenge. That was the very day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index for 2007. I know you say the short term is noise, and you are not known for short-term day-to-day forecasts, which you avoid. I put my house up for sale and just sold it based on your May 3rd post where you said, “Home prices in the US are near all-time highs. ” The realtor told me that sales have started to decline, and I sold the high.

Amazing.

Thank you

Mike

TIME to Buy Time to Sell

REPLY: There is always a time to buy and a time to sell. The short-term is just noise. If the Dow or Gold rallies for two weeks and then declines, that does not alter the long-term course until we have reached a turning point. But people want to see you as a forecaster daily, which is nonsense. The more someone trades, the lower their performance, and the risks increase exponentially.  I have done the long-term because we were the largest institutional adviser. They are not day traders.

Case Shiller 20 City
ECM Wave 2002 2011 R

Yes, the 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave. With the prospect of war on the horizon, people will contract in their spending because of uncertainty.

ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi

We have gone through a period of a boom, but with war on the horizon, people will pull back on their spending, and we will generally enter a recession from May 2024 into August 2028. The shift from the Blue to the Red states is still occurring. So, real estate in the blue states will fall in price rapidly. The decline will vary from place to place.

Now we should enter a BUYER’S market whereas from 2020-2024 was a SELLER’S Market.

Venice – The Longest Republic but it had its Dark Side


Posted Jun 24, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

Venice St Mark Square

COMMENT: Marty,

Hope you’re doing well.

I just returned from a trip to Venice, Italy, and a local tour guide informed me of the following about the Venetian Republic, some of which is similar and some of which is slightly different than what you’ve mentioned in the past:

1.  it was the longest-lasting republic in the history of the world, lasting about 1100 years, abolished only by Napoleon’s threat, to whom it surrendered

2. its longevity was attributed to its ability to keep corruption in check, which it did by several methods:  its senators were given one term, and were chosen by randomly drawing names out of a bowl, which contained the names of all the eligible citizens of Venice; in summary, about 200 of those randomly drawn names were chosen to be in a pool of candidates, of which only about 50 of those were chosen to be senators for that term, based on a selection interview.

3.  the Venetian mouth, which you have represented in the past, was only used to submit names of people who were committing crimes against the republic, and any accusation had to be signed by two witnesses;  if the accusation was false, then the accusers would/could be put to death.

I found #2 above particularly interesting, as it would be akin to the US randomly selecting names out of a phone book to be representatives or senators. . .

Take care,

L

Augustus AV Aureus 1st issue

REPLY: Yes, there has always been a rivalry as to the longest-lasting Republic claimed by Venice. That is true only because Rome from 750 BC to 476AD went through being ruled at first by kings, then a republic in 509 BC, and Imperial Rome began eclectically with Augustud being granted that title in 27 BC.

Mouth of Truth

The Mouth of Truth began with anonymous tips, which were obviously abused and eventually reformed. Venice had its corruption. The Dige was for life, not one year. After he died, his estate was seized and investigated, and any uncovered corruption saw whatever assets were given to the Treasury.

Venice Bridge of Sorrows

I’m sure you also saw the famous “Bridge of Sighs” because once convicted of any crime, you crossed that bridge and went directly from the court to the prison or from their dungeon (from the torture room) to the court. Venice did not turn the other cheek.

Venetian Fleet

What he did not tell you is that Venice was a quasi-fascist State insofar as the entire fleet was owned by the government, but there was some private ownership.

Crusader Take Constantinople seige Eugene_Ferdinand_Victor_Delacroix

I’m unsure if he also told you that the Venetians were notorious pirates. Venice engaged in trade beginning from the late 8th Century, but this was the slave trade.  During this very early period, Venice was engaged in the selling of slaves to the Arabs from the Carolingian-Sclaveian wars. The name of the “Slavic” people means servitude or slave. In the pactum Lotharii of 840 between Venice and the Carolingian Empire, Venice was finally forced to reform and promised not to buy Christian slaves in the Empire and not to sell Christian slaves to Muslims.

Venice was also at the head of the Fourth Crusade, but instead of going after the Muslims, they laid siege to and conquered Byzantium. This is a painting of the “Latin Rulers” conquering Byzantium.

Latin Rulers titles

The Venetians even issued Their versions of Byzantine coins between 1204 and 1261AD.

Enrico Dandolo c. 1107–1205

Enrico Dandolo (c. 1107–1205) was the doge of Venice from 1192 until his death. He is remembered for his corruption and shrewdness. He is the Doge who killed Christians in the Sack of Constantinople. Dandolo died in 1205 in Constantinople and was buried at the Hagia Sophia, which today is the Blue Mosque.

Venice four horses

You probably visited the Cathedral in St Mark’s Square. The Turks stole St Mark’s body from Egypt, and the four horses you see stood on a chariot of Constantine the Great in Byzantium. They also liberated them.

Venetian Empire Coinage
Indian Imitation AV Zecchino 18th century

Nevertheless, Venice became a powerful maritime power. Thanks to its bankers, its coinage became the dominant coinage and was only eclipsed by Florence. The fact that its coinage was recognized in international trade much like the US dollar is today confirms that in India, after imitating Roman coins for hundreds of years, they imitated Venetian gold ducats as well.

VenetianDebt 4

We have an extensive database, and the debt crisis of Venice, which nobody seems to want to talk about, is included within it. The Venetian gold ducat, meaning the Duke’s coin, was probably the most famous, thanks to the commercial and maritime power of the Venetian Republic. However, before 1284, Venice used the coinage of Byzantium in trade – namely the Byzantine gold hyperpyra. The Venetians imported goods from the East and sold them at a profit north of the Alps.

Michael VIII AV Hyperpyron


Byzantine emperor Michael VIII Palaiologos (1261-1282) backed the revolt of the Sicilian Vespers in 1282, and the cost of that war forced him to debase the hyperpyron. This was just one more in a series of debasements, and the Great Council of Venice responded with its own coin of pure gold in 1284. The practice of debasement has preceded him.

1092 Byzantine Monetary Reform 1024x687

The major debasement of the Byzantine coinage had begun under Constantine IX Monomachos (1042-1055), with the purity of the gold coinage falling from 24 carats to 18 carats during his reign. In 1041, the year before he came to the throne, the  Histamenon Nomisma had a weight of about 3.96 grams with a gold content of about 90%. The very first year in 1042, the gold content was reduced to 87.5%. Constantine IX did not take his responsibilities as Emperor very seriously. He seems to have assumed that the wealth of the nation was his to spend as he desired.  He squandered money profoundly and this appears to have been the initial reason for the beginning of the debasement. The gold nomisma fell to 87%.

Minted in Venice from 1284 onwards, the Ducat competed with the florin, the reference currency of Florence, minted since 1252, which until then had dominated financial exchanges in Europe. It weighed 3,545 grams and was 98.6% fine gold, a very high purity for the time.

BancoGiro Venice

We saw banking start to rise in Northern Italy, especially during the 13th century. In 1282, the Republic of Venice organized most public finance activities under its Grain Office, which subsequently did a banking business on behalf of the government. It was the start of what we might call a Treasury today. It accepted time deposits from wealthy citizens as well as foreigners. Like the US Treasury, the Grain Office advanced loans to government departments and private enterprises. It was not until 1587 that Venice established a public bank on the Rialto. It would take until 1619 before it created a public Giro Bank, where funds were paid between accounts. That is what Giro means. I can write you a check, and we both have accounts at the same bank. Venice was too attached to trade, and the government sought to monopolize it. Venice clearly did not rival Genoa or Florence in capital management matters because it was essentially a quasi-fascist state where the government sought to engage in trade business, and thus, entrepreneurship was lacking. Interestingly, the city of Venice won an exclusion from the Sin of Usury and was allowed to trade with the Arabs, including the slave trade.

Venice was not a Papal State, and it often opposed the Vatican. Venice, Tuscany, and Modena formed an antipapal league to protect Parma, and France intervened. Peace was concluded in Venice on March 31st, 1644, and Pope Urban died soon afterward.

kleroterion Athenian Vote

So, while Venice is the longest Republic, the practice of one term of office and out was prevalent in Nothern Italy with republics in general. As far as the random selection of a representative, this was taken from Athens. Here is a Kleroterion where names would be selected at random to be a representative in government and even to serve on a jury.

Greek Philosophers

This is actually the root of why the three major Athenian philosophers were anti-democratic. The real objection was that these people were selected randomly and lacked experience, intellect, or any skill to be in charge of anything, no less the welfare of the people.

Interview: Trump Wins 2024 — Chaos to Follow


Posted Jun 23, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

Interview: Western Empire Facing Same Collapse as Rome in its Final Days


Posted originally on Jun 22, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Pushing the Envelop for War


Posted originally on Jun 21, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Russia v USA 2

Rather than being pesimistic, our future depends on understanding who is doing what. It has been the Neocons in the Biden Administration who have lived their entire lives hating Russians, and Victoria Nuland, Antony Bliken, and Merrick Garland are all Jewish who trace their roots to Ukraine and profess that their families suffered in the persecutions of Jews by the Russians. All three have weaseled their way to the top of the food chain, and with the absentee president, they have pushed the entire world to the brink of World War III. NOT A SINGLE member of Chongess will even dare to investigate what is happening. Nobody will stand up to defend our people or the future of our children and grandchildren.

Migration Crisis 2024

The report is $35

The Democrats have flooded the country merely to retain power, and they do not charge about the people or the nation – it is just about retaining power. This 2024 will be a joke, and NOBODY will accept the outcome regardless of who wins. The days remaining in the like-expectancy of the United States are numbered. As I outlined in the special report on the Migrant Crisis, this will backfire on the Democrats, for the unskilled people they are flooding the country with will turn on Americans exactly as took place in ancient Rome when Emperor Valens did the same thing as Biden and opened the border. When they turned against the Romans, there was a huge battle, and even Emperor Vales was killed in that battle by the migrants.

The 2020_Coup 2

The report is $10

I have laid out how the 2020 election was REALLY stolen – inside Congress, not by voting machines or people who counter votes twice. I have put this out for $10 because I fear they will do this again. Everyone would understand how it was really done using even COVID Rules that Pelosi imposed so not more than 53 people were allowed on the floor when any challenge must be debated before the full Congress. They may be preparing to use Bird Flu to support mail-in ballots, and the same scheme appears ready to replay.

Sateillite System

The Global Positioning System (GPS) was launched on February 22nd, 1978. A nuclear explosion in the lower atmosphere would destroy all the satellites we use, even for targeting. Such a blast may even prevent future satellites from deploying for up to one year. The Neocons have their fake media out there saying Putin is desperate, and they have the audacity to say his nuclear weapons are old and would not operate. Everything they say is to make it sound that the West can easily defeat Russia.

Reagan in quest of peace

Once upon a time, we had leaders who sought world peace. This book has a special place in my library. It was a great honor to have been called in by the Reagan Administration on economic concerns. I can tell you that the Neocons then OBJECTED to Reagan’s meeting with Gorbachev, and they advised him, “You can never trust a Russian.” If the Neocons ran the world, it would be in ashes by now. I have NEVER met people with hatred in their souls. They are consumed with hatred and should NEVER be allowed anywhere near the reigns of power.

All I can say – get off your ass. At least write to your PRETEND representative and ask why nobody is interested in peace anymore.

The World of Autocrats


Posted originally on Jun 18, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Biden Secon Term

Biden had the audacity to call Vladimir Putin an “autocrat.” Autocratic governments are often called dictatorships or sometimes autocracies. This is the pot calling the kettle black. The Democrats refused to allow any competitor on the Democratic ticket because they knew Biden would lose. The scene all along has been to draft Hillary in August so she has the honeymoon with the press, and Biden will take the fall in debates with Trump. They do not care and hope he looks really bad. They manipulated the polls just as the British did with BREXIT, trying to inspire people to vote against it because it represented a bunch of losers. The real numbers in the polls for Biden have slipped even below 10%.

Leyen Ursula von der

Let’s be honest. Biden is a hand puppet. The government is run ALWAYS by the people hiding behind the curtain who are UNELECTED. Even in Europe, the head of the EU, Ursula, NEVER stands for election. She is the hand puppet of the Globalists installed by Klaus Schwab. Europeans have no right to vote for the head of state, but we live in a Democracy?

Yet these people claim to want to start World War III all because Putin is an “autocrat” when they are no different, if not worse!

Owen Nuts

I know what Dementia is. The judge I had would forget who I even was. Only after numerous appeals and hints that this insane contempt should end did they finally remove the judge. They had no choice. I had gotten into the Supreme Court, and they ordered the government to explain what was going on. The corrupt Court of Appeals reassigned the case to avoid having the Supreme Court rule, for they would have been liable for billions in damages for a 7-year contempt on an 18-month statute where they stole even all the pension funds of our employee’s 401Ks.

We had 240 employees. The court of appeals knew Judge Richard Owen was senile and probably had dementia but protected judges at all costs against the Constitution. ONLY because the Supreme Court was stepping in were they forced to release me. As I said, New York City DOES NOT follow the Constitution. They are the most corrupt court in the land. It took a gang of lawyers to complain that Judge Owen was out of it. Someone like that can sentence you to death, and nobody will do a dam thing.

And we live in an honorable country? As Thrasymachus warned 2500 years ago, JUSTICE is only the self-interest of those in power. And they want to have our boys & girls die in war for their corrupt power?

2006 Supreme Court

Italy’s Days Ahead


Posted originally on Jun 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Meloni Giorgia Prime_Minister

While we must first go through some hard times, we will NEVER reform until most people see that this is NOT going in the right direction. It is unbelievable. I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who rose to power from virtually nowhere. People were fed up with the BS of career politicians and the collapse of so many businesses and turned to a fresh face who was not a fascist or even a neo-fascist. She’s a right-wing populist-nationalist of a type who seems to be naive and has been conquered by the Neocon agenda. She is more likely to engulf Italy in World War III, but that seems to be the European Agenda as a distraction from the crisis unfolding, and the Euro is drowning in fiscal mismanagement.

Italy Milano M 6 16 24

The Italian share market began to crash one week after the turn in the Economic Confidence Model on May 7th. The major resistance stands at the 35000 level, and that is where the bounce effectively hits a wall of resistance. Meloni’s insane comment that Russia will be forced to surrender if the Kremlin does not agree to the terms of peace that the EU dictates to Russia is just unimaginable. According to Meloni, she made this comment during the broadcast of the second plenary session of the peace summit.

“Defending Ukraine means uniting all the efforts of the international community to protect Ukraine. If Russia does not agree to Ukraine’s terms, we will force it to surrender. We need to set the minimum conditions for this discussion.”

Her total lack of experience is precisely what the Neocons have counted on. She has joined the cheerleaders for World War III and the audacity, if not total ignorance, of the fact that it was the West and Kyiv that started this war intentionally to force Putin into World War III so they could conquer Russia and engage in genocide. Ukraine is the MOST disgusting, corrupt, and untrustworthy country on the face of this planet, and they WILL use whatever means to start World War III.

I apologize to those in Rome that I could not stay longer to meet with Meloni, which many wanted to arrange. But based on her recent comments, it is clear that the Neocons would have told her not to meet with me anyway. She has joined the warmongering crowd. I just hope this was not the last time I will ever see the Roman Forum.

Italy Milano M Array 6 16 24

These failed leaders, who are clearly incompetent to drive a taxi, are steering the world into World War III. This insane confrontation with Russia appears to be heating up in July. Putin is the ONLY adult in the room. He desperately keeps warning is this where you want to go?

MA with Caesar 2

I have always loved Rome. I was surprised at how many restaurants I used to go to have been closed and driven out of business thanks to COVID-19. Sorry to inform Italian readers, but you are headed into a recession, and with Giorgia Meloni taking directions from the Neocons instead of addressing the economic issues, we have the worst crop of leaders in modern history around the globe all hell-bent on creating war. Instead of being neutral, she has thrown Italy into the target zone.

The Future According to the ECM


Posted originally on Jun 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong