Category Stagflation

Oct 28 2022

Climate Change War – US v Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Oct 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

As senior U.S. military officers deployed to NATO’s front line against Russia on the border with Ukraine have boasted that they are ready to join the fight. This provoked a response from Russia’s ambassador to the United States told Newsweek that such a move would bring about catastrophic ramifications. The commanders of the U.S. Army 101st Airborne Division who are now stationed just a few miles from the Romanian border with Ukraine are also making comments that they were ready to cross over in response to any escalation or attack on NATO.

This is all calling into question who the hell is the real commander and chief? President Joe Biden has repeatedly stated he was not going to send U.S. soldiers into Ukraine itself. The US has NOT sent troops to the borders of NATO since World War II. The National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby rushed to then say that “nothing has changed about the commander-in-chief’s decision that there will be no American troops fighting inside Ukraine.” This is raising serious concerns about who is really in charge and do we have a military so eager to jump in that we end up in WWIII because of all of this nonsense.

Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov said, “we have already officially pointed out to high-ranking members of the US Government that such bravura statements by the U.S. Army commanders are inadmissible.” He further warned that Moscow would take these comments seriously. Behind the curtain, there is serious concern that Biden is just a puppet and has no idea that his administration is pushing the world to WWIII.

Antonov added: “We are not going to tolerate a situation where military threats are mounting on Russian borders… Direct participation of the U.S. military in the fighting will lead to disastrous consequences. I am convinced that further aggravation of the situation is not in Washington’s interests.”

There is absolutely no reason for the US to have troops stationed on the border. Russia is not interested in invading NATO and they too realize what that would mean. Stationing the Hard Rock Company, 1st Battalion, 502nd Infantry Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), only increases the chance of war just like in Vietnam. This has been the first time in nearly 80 years that troops have been sent in this manner.

The Russian ambassador Antonov warned that “Washington is becoming increasingly involved in the conflict in Ukraine, turning the country’s territory into a battlefield with Russia.” If Russia sent nukes to Venezuela or stationed troops in Mexico, I seriously doubt the US would stand by silently.

Our War Model globally turned up in 2014 as I laid out at the 2011 World Economic Conference. I have warned that history will call this the Climate Change War. The Biden Administration is being run by climate zealots telling us our pets have to eat bugs along with us and they want to impose a federal tax to even have a pet of several thousand dollars to reoccur annually no less. These zealots want to wipe out Russia because they produce energy and that is 50% of the GDP. Having Ukrainians die for climate change is no problem – there are too many people anyway.

Even the Cuban Missile Crisis on a 51.6-year calculation turned back up on May 4th, 2014. The next 8.6-year wave will be 2023.008 which will be January 3rd, 2023. The peak of that wave will then be 2027.308  which is April 9th, 2027. These people have reignited the U.S.-Russia rivalry intensifying to levels not seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Zelensky is sacrificing his country for money. You do not put your entire nation at risk for a strip of land that has always been occupied by Russians for centuries. He takes his orders from the Biden Administration and it is public knowledge that he was told not to negotiate for peace.

These Climate Change Zealots are bringing the world to complete disaster over total nonsense when Climate Change has been a natural cycle for millions of years. They ignore the history of the planet past 1850 because they want to simply blame everything on the Industrial Revolution. They have confused pollution with climate change and will not address that there have been warming periods and ice ages without people driving their SUVs.

The military always wants war. They get to play with all their cool stuff. They have been using Ukraine to study Russia’s tactics and weapons. This has been a fantastic learning experience for the military. The problem this time, one Russian nuclear sub can surface offshore and fire 60 nukes and we will not be able to shoot them all down.

Oct 28 2022

Joe Biden Claims Current Gas Prices Lower Than When He Took Office, States Falsely Gas Was Over $5/Gal When He Was Inaugurated


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 27, 2022 | sundance 

Will big tech and social media remove Joe Biden for violations of misinformation, disinformation and malinformation?  Considering his remarks today, they should.

Reading from a teleprompter loaded with lies about the economy, Joe Biden stunningly states that gas prices are lower today than when he took office. Further claiming that gasoline was $5/gal.  {Direct Rumble Link} Nothing about any of his economic claims is true.  WATCH (1 min):

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Allowing people to return to work after the pandemic lockdowns is not “creating jobs.”  And gasoline was not $5/gal when Joe Biden took office.

Oct 28 2022

Techfiltration


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 27, 2022 | sundance 

Just a quick notice and alert to highlight some common technological ‘glitches’ and occurrences that are appearing around the internet, coincidentally timed as a result of the pending 2022 midterm election.

By now everyone is familiar with Big Tech control mechanisms like blocking, shadow banning, downgrading and throttling.

Essentially, these are methods within the technology space that are designed to influence opinion and block access to information and communication adverse to the ideology of the provider(s).

Most often we associate those terms with social media platforms; however, within the infrastructure of the internet itself the same intent is also carried in various forms you might not be familiar with.  I am seeing a lot of deployed control systems triggered recently, it is worth mentioning in case you notice something different.

Internet Service Providers (ISP’s) are increasingly directing your background internet travels and blocking you from access to content they define as against their interest.  Major players in the field of providing online access (comcast, Xfinity, AT&T, etc.) as well as regional operators also have a vested ideological stake.  If you find yourself having difficulty navigating the internet, especially during this election season, be aware the ISP provider could be in control.

Cell phone communication networks also have the ability to control data transmitted through their systems.  Text messages containing links to unapproved or dissident websites can be blocked by code and algorithms assigned to monitor traffic.   Phone browsers and portable internet hot spots may also be controlled by the provider.  You may not be aware, but your agreement with your cell phone provider gives them the ability to filter data on your device according to their individual standard.

Again, just be aware.

Browsers are also major players in the field of filtering information and controlling user behavior.  It could be as subtle as an image or link not appearing for you, or it could be total blocking of traffic to website destinations they have defined as adverse to their interests.   Large activist organizations provide lists of websites and content to feed into the filtration system.   Just be aware your browser may indeed be controlling your content and as a result controlling your perspective.

The obvious issues with internet search engines (google, duck-duck etc.) are well documented, however increasingly Apps and authorized software additions to your devices come with mechanisms to control what information may be visible to you.   This is where the terms “disinformation”, “misinformation” and “malinformation” become useful tools to justify the interception and blocking of your activity.

Sometimes the network may provide a warning or pop-up in their effort to stop you from reaching the information they want to control, but increasingly it just happens in the background, and you have no idea.   This is one of the unspoken benefits in the “cookie” system.  In addition to providing direct advertising experiences based on your browsing history, you as a user, may be identified as a dissident voice and assigned a label within the same cookie identification process.

Most people who use the internet have no idea a unique label has been assigned to them in the virtual space. Those labels can be grouped together and contained within the control systems of cyberspace.

Increasingly the techfiltration process has become a Staziesque public-private partnership.   You can well imagine what happens when the people in control of technological systems have an ideological mission to shape public opinion, simultaneous with the government people who define dis-mis-and malinformation delivering requests from the FBI and DHS to the technological partners who control the techfiltration process.

The bottom line, just be aware that information you may choose to access, research or share, is heavily controlled by the providers you select to facilitate your online information and communication networks.  You are likely right now blocked from accessing information and have no idea it’s happening.

If you cannot reach a website, see an image, view a page, or navigate a system, it’s likely not anything you are doing wrong; most often it’s the result of a tech control system designed to keep you away from the data.  Additionally, valid information like emails or text messages are increasingly identified as spam or blocked completely by the email or cell phone service you have subscribed to.

All of this is just an fyi, because I happen to notice these types of curious conversations taking place with increased frequency right now.  Lots of people are wondering why they cannot access or see things.  These are likely not ‘glitches.’

All the best,

Comrade & Dissident, Sundance

Oct 28 2022

U.S. GDP Grows 2.6% in Third Quarter Driven by Energy Exports and Declining Goods Imports, While Domestic Economy Shrinks


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 27, 2022 | sundance

The topline of a third-quarter GDP at +2.6% looks good [DATA HERE]. However, a look into the numbers shows alarm.  The domestic U.S. economy, as measured by Main Street creating goods and services for domestic consumption, contracted in the third quarter.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculation is a valuation of all goods and services created within the economy, minus the value of goods and services imported.  However, even a cursory look under the topline number shows how the import/export dynamic creates the illusion of economic growth.

In the third quarter we exported hundreds of billions worth of energy products, including massive liquified natural gas (LNG) sales to Europe, and oil sales to the global market from the strategic petroleum reserve.  We also sold billions in weapons to Europe. Those sales are calculated as exports, lifting the GDP number (Table 1).  At the same time, imports of durable goods into the United States collapsed; meaning less was deducted from the GDP.  The net import/export impact on the GDP dynamic was +2.77% (Table 2).

Meaning the third-quarter import/export dynamic alone contributed 2.7% growth to the percentage of change for the prior period.  However, the total GDP only rose 2.6%, because the actual economic value created domestically got smaller.  We made less internally, sold less internally and consumers purchased less internally.

You can see the import/export dynamic in whole dollars within Table 1:

TABLE 1 – We exported 17.2% more goods in the third quarter than in the second quarter (that’s mostly energy sales and food sales to the global market).  We imported 8.7% less goods in the third quarter than the second quarter.  That’s mostly the drop in companies ordering products from overseas for sales in the United States.  Companies imported less because inventories climbed as consumers stopped purchasing durable goods and non-essentials.

Table – 2 (modified for clarity) shows us the impact or contribution from the import/export dynamic:

In Table-2 you can see the net impact of higher exports and lower imports lifted the GDP by 2.77%.  However, the total GDP only gained 2.6% due to the other dynamics inside the economy slowing down.  The import/export dynamic alone was enough to explain the entire gain in Q3 GDP and is a function of US support of the European war economy as the US exports record number of commodities (oil and gas), as well as Joe Biden’s massive multi-billion weapon sales to Europe.

The Biden administration will use the +2.6% GDP number to claim the U.S. “recession” never existed, despite two previously negative quarters.  However, while technically the talking point may be true, the domestic U.S. economy (Main Street) is making less stuff and consumers are buying less stuff.

The savings rate is also declining.  BLS: “Personal saving was $626.1 billion in the third quarter, compared with $629.0 billion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with 3.4 percent in the second quarter.”  American households are saving less because essential purchases like housing, rent, food, fuel and energy, are costing much more.

When households evaluate their checkbooks, a Biden administration claim of a growing economy falls flat – because the only part of the economy that is growing is the part that fuels the energy needs of Europe.  Main Street USA is suffering through the massive inflation that Joe Biden has created, and purchases of anything other than necessities have come to a near halt.

Oct 27 2022

Fetterman v Oz – Another Case Against Mail-In Voting


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Oct 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Pennsylvania Senate debate between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz was a complete disaster for Fetterman. I think everyone felt secondhand embarrassment for John. Fetterman seemed incoherent for most of the debate. He struggled to form logical sentences or stay on topic.

His team is now in the midst of damage control. They claim that he was brave for speaking weeks after his stroke and that the closed captions provided were altered. “We are thrilled with John’s performance. He did remarkably well tonight – especially when you consider that he’s still recovering from a stroke and was working off of delayed captions filled with errors,” Fetterman’s team managed to say. The doctor who gave Fetterman the OK after his stroke also happens to be one of his campaign donors. Clearly, he was not healthy enough to be on that stage.

Some people would have voted for Fetterman even if he were in a coma simply because he is not a Republican. Others, however, are shocked at the candidate’s mental state. The problem is that close to a million people have already voted in Pennsylvania through mail-in ballots. There may be some sensible people left who are now regretting their vote after seeing his performance on Tuesday night.

Mail-in ballots are not tracked through the mail and open the door to fraud (see: 2020 US Presidential Election). Fraud aside, people did not have a full scope of knowledge before they voted. It would be akin to allowing students to take their final exams during the first few weeks of class.

Oct 26 2022

Bidenomics – Home Values Continue Dropping Quickly, Especially on West Coast – Meanwhile Rents Continue Increasing


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 25, 2022 | Sundance 

As inflation bites the working-class hard, U.S. household savings rates continue dropping fast.  When combined with drops in home values the loss in home equity compounds the issue.  American families are getting poorer much more quickly under Joe Biden’s economic policies.

According to the Wall Street Journal home values dropped in August at their highest monthly rate of decrease since 2011 {link}.  In part this is driven by higher mortgage rates which are pricing home buyers out of the market.  However, the regional impact is worse on the west coast than east or southeast.

[…] The housing market has slowed abruptly this year due to a rapid increase in mortgage rates, which has raised borrowing costs for home buyers and pushed many prospective buyers out of the market. Existing-home sales fell for eight straight months through September. (link)

As noted in The Daily Mail review of a similar analysis: “It’s Northern California that leads the way, with San Jose experiencing a drop of 10.8 percent since September, followed by San Francisco at 8.5 percent, then it’s Seattle at 8.2 percent, Denver at 5.8 percent, San Diego 5.2 percent, Portland 5.1 percent, Las Vegas 4.8 percent and Phoenix at 4.4 percent.” (link)

What we are seeing is a confluence of events, generally brought about by the outcomes of larger Biden administration policy.  Massive increases in energy costs are the result of energy policy; those increases are fueling inflation from the supply side on food, fuel, electricity, home heating etc.  Simultaneously, Fed monetary policy is driving consumer demand down.  The recession debate continues amid the economic think-tanks while Main Street outcomes show we have been in a recessionary period all year.

The majority of consumers have stopped purchasing nonessential goods and services. As a result, the only thing holding the economy together is employment.  Sooner or later, as the natural lags in the economy bite down, the lack of consumer spending (noted in increased inventories) is going to result in lay-offs and unemployment.  It’s almost a guarantee at this point once the boxcar impact of the prior supply chain shortages straightens out.

The third wave of food price increases is now here, and we are all likely starting to see those price increases in retail food stores.  Depending on how much higher energy prices go this winter (gasoline, natural gas, home heating oil etc.) the middle class will again be making tough checkbook decisions on spending.

On a MACRO level (nationwide averages) I would not be surprised to see home prices drop to where they were in the beginning of the second quarter of 2021.  Home sales have dropped quickly, and home inventories are now climbing.  Home buyers are now in the position to negotiate for much lower prices as fewer home buyers are in the market.

If you did not purchase a home in the past year, you likely have stable equity.  Depending on region, those who did purchase a home this year will have to wait quite a while before the price level returns.  Meanwhile rents continue increasing as middle-class workers are stuck between diminishing real wages (Biden inflation) and higher home borrowing costs (Biden monetary policy).

Oct 24 2022

NBC Pushes Midterm Media Poll


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 23, 2022 | Sundance

NBC’s Mark Murray {Eyeroll} produces a midterm media poll {DATA HERE} to frame the 2022 election and claim a tight race for both Democrats and Republicans.  Despite collapsing economic numbers, widespread inflation and disapproval on every category, NBC finds the #1 issue for all voters is “The Threat to Democracy.”

NBC’s Chuck Todd gives the spin on the outcome:

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71% of the country say we are on the wrong track (20% approve).

57% of the country disapproves of the job Biden is doing with the economy (38% approve).

50% of the country says things will get worse (20% think will improve)….

…. But it’s a close election?…

…. And the #1 concern is “the threat to democracy?“

It’s all propaganda.

Oct 24 2022

Lee Smith Nails a Key Point, The Fourth Branch of Government and Media Operate Together


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 23, 2022 | Sundance |

Lee Smith makes an important point in this brief podcast excerpt. {Direct Rumble Link Here}  We have outlined his point on these pages for several years.

Essentially, the point Lee Smith drives home is how the U.S. Corporate Media, and the Big Tech monopolies, are the front force of the new national security and intelligence state.  It is a relationship that extends far beyond the customary leanings of media, and now covers a full synergistic relationship.  WATCH:

“We’re all familiar with the fact that the press has historically leaned to the left. That’s not what we’re looking at now. We’re looking at something very, very different. We’re looking at the press as being a part of the intelligence community. They are the ones who is putting these operations out there.”

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The New York Times and Politico are the public relations firms for Main Justice, the DOJ and FBI.  The Washington Post handles the needs of the Intelligence Community (IC) and the Central Intelligence Agency.  Meanwhile CNN is managed by the needs of the U.S. State Dept.   These direct relationships have been discussed here for several years.