Interest Rates Rise will Not be Slow


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Nov 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

This interview with FXStreet is from 2015. Some are surprised at the consecutive rate hikes, but our models have been indicating for a very long time that rates would rise rapidly. There would be no soft landing. Central banks maintained artificially low rates for far too long and were backed into a corner. They created a problem long ago, and it will cause pain for “some time,” as Powell usually states, for the situation to be under control.

Media Declaring Democrat Victory in Nevada Senate Race, Amid Significant Disparity Between Governor Race Outcome in Same State


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 12, 2022 | sundance 

The media is declaring Democrats have won the Nevada senate race with Catherine Cortez Masto defeating Republican Adam Laxalt.  This gives the Senate to the Democrats with 50 seats, Republicans with 49 and the Georgia runoff still outstanding.  [Media Report]

Something is very weird about this Nevada outcome, when you compare the Governor race on the same ballot.

With Laxalt previously ahead, and with his previous vote percentage in alignment with Republican Governor Candidate Joe Lombardo, it appeared Laxalt was positioned for victory.  However, apparently the Democrats gained post-election ballots where the Democrat on the Senate race was supported, but the Democrat in the Governor race was not.

Democrat Cortez Masto (Sen) surged late in the ballot counting and carried 15,000 more affirming ballots than Democrat Sisolak (Gov).  This seems odd and suspicious; however apparently, we are not allowed to notice these things, lest we be considered conspiracy theorists.

It is very rare for a split ballots to surface in a high-profile race where a Republican governor would win, and the Democrat Senator would win.  However, the outcome in Arizona and Georgia is of a similar construct amid the ballot trend.  Split races in the Governor and Senate outcomes.  All very weird.

It wasn’t “democracy on the ballot,” it was something else entirely.

Democracy per se’, was in the voting, not the ballot collecting.

Cascading Trouble for FTX Crypto Exchange Leads to Inquiries of Campaign Donations to Democrats and Regulators


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 12, 2022 | sundance

FTX crypto currency exchange CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is a major donor to multiple progressive causes and politicians. This week as FTX starts to collapse, the financial system underneath the exchange looks more like a Ponzi scheme falling apart.

The CEO had been a major donor to regulators on Capitol Hill, and the tentacles of FTX extend to Ukraine where Sam Bankman-Fried was operating to support the Ukraine government with crypto currency collections and donations. The FTX corporation and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is now under multiple investigations.  Here’s the 90-second recap of the current dynamic. WATCH:

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(Via Daily Caller) Sam Bankman-Fried, prolific Democratic donor and ex-CEO of now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX, funded the campaigns of members of Congress overseeing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), one of the key bodies tasked with regulating the crypto industry and the subject of Bankman-Fried’s aggressive lobbying.

Bankman-Fried’s FTX is currently under investigation by the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after Bankman-Fried allegedly moved $10 billion in client assets from his crypto exchange to his trading firm Alameda Research, and a liquidity crisis at his exchange which prompted the company to file for bankruptcy. However, prior to the agency’s probe, Bankman-Fried aggressively courted the CFTC – and funded several key lawmakers charged with overseeing the agency, pouring cash into their campaign coffers. (read more)

(Via CoinDesk) The past week has seen a dizzying downward spiral for Sam Bankman-Fried’s huge crypto empire. Bankman-Fried’s FTX crypto exchange has paused withdrawals, and a tentative bailout from rival Binance appears to be kaput. That could put depositor funds at risk, and certainly spells a major setback for not only Bankman-Fried but for the cryptocurrency industry as a whole.

These downfalls aren’t rare in crypto, which is subject to extreme boom-bust cycles. But FTX and Bankman-Fried are unique in the stature they achieved before self-immolating. Over the past three years, FTX has come to be widely regarded as a reputable exchange, despite not submitting to U.S. regulation. Bankman-Fried has himself become globally influential, thanks to his thoughts on cryptocurrency regulation and his financial support for U.S. electoral candidates – not necessarily in that order.

These narratives about both FTX and Bankman-Fried are now clearly dead in the water, given recent evidence that everything was not as it seemed at the exchange, or at Bankman-Fried’s other firm, Alameda Research. (read more)

With Elections Over U.S. Multinationals Begin Announcing Job Cuts


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 12, 2022 

There was always a strong suspicion the woke corporations were holding back negative employment intentions until after the midterm elections.

Well, as expected, the U.S. multinationals are starting to announce advanced downsizing.

(CNBC) – Tens of thousands of tech workers have been laid off within days, as tech giants including MetaTwitterSalesforce and others shed headcount going into the final stretch of the year. At least 20,300 U.S. tech workers were let go from their jobs in November, and more than 100,000 since the beginning of the year, according to Layoffs.fyi, which tracks layoffs in the field.

Tech workers reported huge drops in confidence in their job security through the summer, as news of layoffs, hiring freezes and rescinded offers put a damper on what’s so far been a worker-driven Covid pandemic recovery.

But the latest headlines are all converging at once as businesses course-correct on over-hiring and acknowledge how rising interest rates are thwarting their growth plans, says ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollak. (more)

Nov 11 (Reuters) – Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) is planning to freeze hiring and cut some jobs as it strives to move the Disney+ streaming service to profitability against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, according to a memo seen by Reuters on Friday.

Chief Executive Bob Chapek sent the memo to Disney’s leaders, saying the company is instituting a targeted hiring freeze and anticipates “some small staff reductions” as it looks to manage costs. (read more)

As noted by Yahoo News, a “wave of layoffs” has begun that encompasses dozens of medium and large corporations [SEE HERE].

The layoffs, outlined in Yahoo, cover real estate, tech companies, banking, finance, automakers, EV startups, and brick and mortar stores like 7-11 and GAP.   It should not come as a surprise, but it is sad to see, nonetheless.

Within the economy, a great pretending can only last so long… then reality hits.

The skilled trades should likely end up in the best employment situation, with the tech sector the worst.  Service industries are also one of the first sectors hit when employment becomes an issue.

With rising interest rates, high inflation, excessive inventories, a shrinking production economy, extreme energy costs and diminished disposable income as a result of inflation and gas prices, there was going to come a time when it all starts to congregate.   2023 looks to be the year when economic pretenses collapse under the weight of having to admit a recession exists.

The UK is Not Prepared for a Prolonged Recession


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Nov 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

People are simply not prepared for a sharp economic downturn. The Money and Pensions Service conducted a poll in the UK in which it found around 25% of adults have under £100 in savings. The 3,000-person survey found that 17% reported having absolutely nothing set aside. Around 5% reportedly had under £50, while 4% had between £50 and £100.

The drastically increased cost of living has many living paycheck to paycheck. The Building Societies Association (BSA), as reported by the BBC, conducted a separate survey that found that 35% of people in the UK simply stopped saving due to inflation. Around 36% said they are already dipping into their savings accounts to pay the bills.

The Bank of England is anticipating a long recession ahead. The central bank sees economic conditions contracting through the first half of 2024. The central bank’s prediction of five consecutive quarters of contraction would mark the longest recession in UK history. The people have not experienced the full effects of this recession, and most are simply not prepared for what lies ahead.