Russia Prepared for NATO Invasion


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 25, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The West has decided to turn this into an all-out war to completely destroy Russia once and for all. Moscow has been put on high alert and air defenses are being put up in every sector of the city. The hardliners are being heard and Putin has little choice at this point. It has become absolutely obvious that even Germany now is sending tanks into Ukraine and they will be used to invade Russia. It appears that NATO “advisors” will be most likely driving these tanks.

I had hoped things would not unravel as quickly as they have. I warned that January was a major target in time coming up in our arrays. We also then have major targets in April/May and Panic Cycles in June. Even gold is moving higher which has NOTHING to do with inflation or the Fed. Gold rises during times of uncertainty with governments and war. Our computer has pinpointed the timing pretty well.

Even the prime minister of Finland has drunk the cool aid of war. Our world leaders are willing to throw everything society has accomplished into the rubbish all for this quest to destroy Russia, then China, and create this one-world dream of Soros and Schwab.

Understand that when war unfolds, they will impose capital controls in Europe ASAP. We even see Russian capital moving into Turkey buying real estate there in particular. Meanwhile, South Africa is aligning itself with Russia.

Nuclear War to Save the Plan


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 25, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Great article about Nuclear War and saving the planet. You forgot to mention Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The “science” says both cities should have been uninhabitable for a 1000 years after a nuclear war. Yet, their populations doubled in 20 years after being nuked? Hiroshima now has 9 times its 1945 population. In 1945, after the A-bomb, it was 137,000. Now they have 1.2 million people? Doesn’t make sense!

Mike

REPLY: You are correct. I have even visited the area. I did not think to add that. The idea that a nuclear attack will poison the area permanently is also bad science just like Climate Change and the Earth will fry all because of CO2. I somehow think that not just cockroaches will survive a nuclear blast, but I get this strange feeling so will the people at the WEF.

Why do Neocons Want War with Russia?


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Lindsey Graham is the twin brother of John McCain. I had asked John McCain once why he hated Russia so much. He never responded with any reason. It was always the same nonsense he always spread before Putin and after. It has baffled me as to what the difference is between Germany and Russia. We do not belittle Germany or hate its people solely because of Hitler. When it comes to Russia, it does not matter who is president, nothing ever changes. Graham said:

“If Putin gets away with this, there goes Taiwan. If Putin’s successful in Ukraine and isn’t prosecuted under international law, everything we’ve said since WWII becomes a joke. He will continue beyond Ukraine.” 

Lindsey Graham is an outright neocon who will say anything to achieve his dream – the destruction of Russia even though it is not communist. There is absolutely ZERO evidence since the fall of the USSR that anyone has sought to conquer Europe. Both Hitler and Napoleon were seeking to re-establish the old Roman Empire and rule over all of Europe. Both attempted to take Egypt to relive the glory of Rome. Some say to fulfill the prophecy that the end will come when the Holy Roman Empire Rises for that will be the time when we die. Don’t worry, Putin does not aspire to that dream. I’m not so sure about the American Neocons.

To even say if Putin wins in Ukraine, “there goes Taiwan” is an absolutely delusional statement. If anything, China would be better off taking Taiwan as the US foolishly keeps sending military arms to Ukraine. The US has already transferred thousands of artillery shells from a military weapons stockpile in Israel to Ukraine. They did the same sending weapons from South Korea to Ukraine. It was reported back in March of 2022 that planes take off almost daily from Dover Air Force Base in Delaware filled with Javelins, Stingers, howitzers, and everything else they can fit. Likewise, Germany began the same in February 2022.

Just this past week, the US military warned Biden that Is the U.S. Running Out of Weapons to even send to Ukraine. The EU foreign policy chief  also warned that “the military stocks of most [EU] member states has been, I wouldn’t say exhausted, but depleted in a high proportion, because we have been providing a lot of capacity to the Ukrainians.”

While the US aid to Ukraine came in at $113 billion far greater than Russia’s budget of 65.9 billion, it is double the military budgets of both France and Germany. It is approaching 50% of the annual budget of China. Just looking at the military spending, Russia has not been preparing to invade Europe. This is absolutely an absurd argument.

John McCain has never changed his view of Russia regardless of who is at the helm. Politico called him the “American antagonist of Russia.” It was McCain who kept pushing NATO Eastward up to the border of Russia all on his claims that if the West does not expand NATO, then Russia will. He proclaimed that those in power did not want to restore the “Soviet Union, but the Russian empire.” There was NEVER a single move that Russia ever made to imply that theory was remotely correct post-1991 and the fall of the USSR.

Lindsey Graham is carrying the banner of hatred for all Russians. It does not matter if Russia overthrows Putin, he dies, or retires. He will still hate Russia and want an all-out war to destroy Russia wiping it off the map once and for all.

The Russian people like Europeans and Americans, do not want war. Like everyone else they just want to enjoy life and take care of their families. It is always the leaders who create all the wars. We are just the dirt beneath their feet – the great unwashed who are always expendable because there are too many of us anyway.

This hatred of Russia is a strategic psychological tactic to sell the idea of war to the common people so they are willing to die for something they think is noble. Not much different from the young arab terrorists who are told this is a holy war and God will reward them if they blow themselves up. The leaders there too will never blow themselves up either.

So why do people like Lindsey Graham just hate Russians and wants war at all cost? It is hard to say. We do not hate Germans today because of Hitler. So why do we hate Russians because of Stalin? One thing is for sure, this hatred of Russia is exhausting our own conventional military supplies so while we cheer claiming Ukraine is winning, we will not be in a position to defend even ourselves if China and North Korea, as well as Iran, decide to join the party.

New Zealand Schwab’s Prize Student Resigns


Armstrong EconomicsBlog/Australia & Oceania Re-Posted Jan 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Last month, Jacinda Ardern confidently said bring it on. Schwab’s prize student progressive was confident about reelection. Even last January’s poll rating saw her drop to a new historic low of 35%. It appeared in December she was living in denial. But her polls were dragging down the party and there was no way she would win in an election. Her COVID-19 draconian politics most assumed were at the direction of Klaus Schwab who thought lockdowns were fantastic with this video, the population has a different perspective. Her sudden realization that being Schwab’s prize student for a young leader was not a guarantee to stardom.

When we look at the computer timing arrays for the New Zealand dollar, we see January as the major target in 2023 followed by August. January was also a Directional Change. But look at the Weekly. Jacinda Ardern has announced she is resigning and stepping down as of February 7th. This was also a Directional Change for this very week. The weekly turning point is her last week. Notice there is a Panic Cycle the week of February 27th.

The interesting aspect when we turn to the Share Market, once again we see January as the major turning point for the year with a Directional Change. However, May is a Panic Cycle that aligns with what we see in Russia and Ukraine.  The West is pushing Russia into a corner. This is not some border skirmish, this is an attempt to actually invade Russia and destroy it once and for all. They say a third time is always a charm – Napoleon, Hitler, and now NATO. This makes for very interesting markets post-2024. Here May is showing up around the world.

Manipulated Economic News on Inflation – Prepare for Bad Corporate Earnings Reports as a Result of Poor Holiday Sales


Posted originally on the CTH on January 17, 2023 | sundance 

There has always been a general shaping and interpretation surrounding economic news, specifically as it relates to the impact of pricing on consumers and corporations. However, against the backdrop of supply side inflation, the financial gaslighting from the Wall Street Journal stands out at the top.

Without pretending, and looking directly at the Main Street reality, CTH has outlined inflation as a matter of monetary and energy policy.  From that standpoint the timing and scale of price increases (inflation measured over time) was predictable.  Our current status is an inflationary plateau, where prices remain high but stabilize for likely two quarters.

What the Wall Street Journal outlines as a “shopper rebellion against high prices” is complete hogwash.  Notice in the construct of the narrative, the demand side (consumers) is identified as the cause of diminished revenue & profits for corporations.  They continue pretending that inflation was not driven by energy costs.

(WSJ) – […] Many companies raised their prices substantially last year to offset higher fuel costs and higher prices for ingredients, parts and labor. As fuel prices have dropped and pandemic supply-chain snarls have eased, some of those costs have come down.

That is a good sign for the economy. It suggests that some inflation in the past year resulted from extreme supply-demand imbalances brought on by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine and which are now fading.

Notice the transparent lack of mentioning ‘energy policy’ as the inflation driver.

[…] The study, by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, found that higher markups—the gap between what a firm charges and what it costs to produce an item—were a major driver of inflation in 2021.

They concluded that companies in some cases were raising prices in 2021 in anticipation of future cost pressures, rather than because of market power or outsize demand. Andrew Glover, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City who was involved in the study, doesn’t expect prices to fall this year, he said, but he anticipates that the pace of increase will continue to slow.

Inflation is the rate of increase over time. We have experienced two years of massive price increases. Yes, the rate of those increases will moderate, this is the plateau, but the price will never drop. The current prices are a direct result of fixed energy policy.

[…] Unit sales of food and beverages fell 3% last year, but on a dollar basis they rose 10%. That showed consumers were willing to pay higher prices for groceries but bought fewer items.

[…] “People need to eat,” said Krishnakumar Davey, a president at IRI. Shoppers are nonetheless buying less when possible and, in many cases, buying less expensive versions of necessities such as toilet paper and laundry detergent.  (read more)

Meanwhile the Fed is worried that wages will be forced to increase.  Here is the real worry for the Wall Street Journal, “If consumers believe high prices will persist, they could seek bigger raises, and businesses, seeing higher labor costs, could continue raising prices.”  Yes, workers, forward inflation is your fault.

Government policy drives up prices, but workers needing wage increases to pay for those higher prices… well, that is not acceptable to the government, comrade proles.

Sunday Talks, Maria Bartiromo Interviews Matt Taibbi About the Twitter File Discoveries, DHS and FBI Officials asking Twitter to Unmask Thousands of Users


Posted originally on the CTH on January 15, 2023 | sundance 

Journalist Matt Taibbi appears on Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo to discuss his findings within the ongoing review of the Twitter communication files.

As Taibbi notes, the FBI was asking for the unmasking of several thousand accounts to include usernames, use identity, ip addresses, geolocation of the account holders and other personal identification data that would normally require a search warrant.  The Dept of Homeland Security (DHS), the FBI and in some cases the CIA would submit these requests and Twitter was fulfilling, albeit sometimes uncomfortable in the compliance demand.  WATCH:

.

If you have followed the research behind “Jack’s Magic Coffee Shop,” none of this is likely surprising.  However, the ramifications and blatant violations of the fourth amendment are quite stark.   It was not that long ago when you would have been accused of being a conspiracy theorist for making these now provable claims.

Mr Taibbi continues to provide the most pertinent takeaways from his reviews.  And to his credit, Taibbi always notes there is a pre-filter applied to the information he is receiving; so, it’s highly likely the intelligence state is still controlling the scope of public awareness behind the justification of “national security”.

Stirring the Pot For War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Many people have written in and asked why have I been unable to convince governments to avoid war. Quite frankly, they think they can win and more importantly, they need this because the entire socialistic system is collapsing. They rely on people buying their bonds year after year with no intention of paying anything back. This is just our time to collapse the same as communism collapsed in 1989 in China and Russia. We have run our course and the clock is running out of time. This is the 34th year since 1989. Socialism will collapse. It has no other choice here in 2023.

I have received videos from Ukrainian soldiers who are threatening to go after Zelensky. I was not given permission to post them so I do not want to get anyone in trouble. They are dying in far greater numbers than the rigged press is reporting and they are freezing.

Strategically, the US is attempting to create the Asian version of NATO aligning with Japan and the Philippines to rely on their soldiers to fight China. Meanwhile, in China, there is absolutely no question that they are preparing to take Taiwan and I believe this was accelerated by the Biden Administration (1) abandoning the one-China policy maintained since Nixon and allowing Pelosi to fly to Taiwan just ahead of the elections in China which was an absolute brain dead stunt. Consequently, China is gearing up for military action to take control of Taiwan because the Biden Administration has actually called their bluff. President Xi Jinping secured a historic third term last year and has made it clear he plans to retake Taiwan. Pay attention in May.

Meanwhile, with respect to North Korea, we would have to take into account their 1.2 million-man Korean People’s Army, which is organized into nineteen corps-sized units, including nine infantry corps, four mechanized corps, one armored corps, one artillery corps, the Pyongyang Defense Command, Missile Guidance Bureau and Light Infantry Instruction Guidance Bureau. More than half of these forces, particularly the mechanized, armor, and artillery forces are located near the DMZ, making an early cross-border assault unattractive. Kim and Putin have come to an agreement and will support each other. On the 72-year anniversary of the Koren War when they prevailed against the United States, Kim condemned “aggression moves” by Washington and Seoul, vowing to take revenge at a time of rising tension on the Korean Peninsula. Here too, it appears that Kim is preparing for war against at least the South and possibly expanding into Japan – a hated enemy.

The Middle East is heating up with Iran preparing for war against Saudi Arabia. This has prompted even Israel and Saudi Arabia to consider a joint defense agreement. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia have come together to also form an alliance. We may also expect that Syria will join on the side of Russia in the Middle East.

Looking at Iran just from the 1979 confrontation taking American hostages, the turning points for the last three waves, which are always the most intense, lined up with the 2014 turn on the Global War Model. The next wave was November 3rd, 2022 and here we see widespread civil unrest. In fact, the United Nations called it a critical situation on November 22nd, 2022.

The world is dumbfounded as to why in the hell we have world leader cheering war on every continent. I put forth a solution, some did not like it, but there is no other way out of this other than Schwab’s “Great Reset” which is really all about defaulting on all the national debts, the end of socialism, and the push for a one world government to end democracy so government retains power. Under my solution, the government would relinquish power. They did not like that. Schwab’s way leaves it necessary to create World War III, reduce the population escapes the pension liabilities, and start over with a new Bretton Woods II.

In 2008, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown joined French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in calling for better regulation of global financial markets.

“We urgently need what you might call the ‘new Bretton Woods,’ so that we can restore confidence in the system while dealing with the areas that have been exposed in recent weeks.”

I posted this video 5 years ago. It has only gotten worse.

Injecting Vaccines into the Food Supply – Why?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re-Posted Jan 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

We must really start to look at what the hell is going on. There are proposals to inject these vaccines into the food supply to thereby circumvent those who do not want to take vaccines. What is really the end objective here? It certainly is NOT to promote health and to ensure that society eliminates disease that naturally acts as a limitation on population growth.

It is inconsistent with these people who behind closed doors discuss how to REDUCE the population. Perhaps all these experiments should be first tested on journalists who think they are the next best invention since sliced bread. Just maybe, then we may, at last, get honest journalists who really investigate instead of propagating what they are told to push.

18th Century Copper Riots & Private Money


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jan 6, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

During the reign of King George III (1760–1820) the first issue of halfpennies actually was not issued until 10 years after his accession to the throne in 1770. Consequently, the vast number of halfpennies in circulation were actually all counterfeits. Indeed, counterfeiting became rampant at first because there was a coin shortage. In 1771, it was declared that counterfeiting copper coins were to be a serious crime. Nevertheless, this really made no difference. Over the course of the next twenty years, the majority of copper coins in circulation were forgeries. Even in the American Colonies, a favorite pastime was to counterfeit British halfpennies.

Coppers of this type are thought to have been minted from mid-1787 through 1788 and probably into 1789. Interestingly, it appears Thomas Machin first produced halfpence dated to the contemporary year as well as examples backdated to 1778. As the mints in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Vermont failed, their equipment ended up at Machin’s Mills. Along with imitation British halfpence, Machin’s Mills also produced illegal Connecticut coppers and some legal Vermont Coppers, with most of their Vermont coins being struck over counterfeit Irish halfpence. The illegal coining operation continued at Machin’s Mills until around early 1790, which was longer than any of the legal mints in New England.

John Adams wrote to John Jay on April 10. 1787

“There is a vast sum in Circulation here of base Copper: to the amount of Several hundreds of thousands of Pounds. very lately these half Pence are refused every where: I suppose in Consequence of some Concerted Scheme. and it is supposed that they will be all purchased for a trifle and Sent to the United States where they will pass for good metal, and consequently our Simple Country men be cheated of an immense sum.2 The Board of Treasury, may be ordered with out the avowed Interposition of Congress, to give the alarm to our Citizens. and the seperate States would do well to prohibit this false Money from being paid or received.3

There was religious tension in Britain that still lingers to this day against Catholics. The Gordon Riots of 1780 took place over several days instigated by the anti-Catholic sentiment that again erupted with the passage of the Papists Act of 1778. That was an attempt to reduce official discrimination against British Catholics with the first legislation of the Popery Act of 1698. At the time, Lord George Gordon was the head of the Protestant Association. He argued that the law would enable Catholics to join the British Army and once in they would then use the army to plot treason. The protest became the excuse to burn people’s possessions, engaged in widespread rioting and looting, and they even used the opportunity to attack both Newgate Prison and the Bank of England. This was by far the most destructive riot in the history of London.

alexis-i-copper-riot-1662

From the mid-1600s, the world money supply was increased largely with copper coins. Russia, in particular, began to overvalue the copper coins. Money is always fiat for its value is typically dictated by the government. Overvaluing copper as in the 17th and 18th centuries, led to the same trend of overvaluing silver during the 19th century. The result of this monetary manipulation by the Russian government led to what became known as the Copper Riots of 1662.

The Russian government began producing copper coins and monetizing them to be of equal value to silver Kopek currency with an average weight of about half of a gram to meet expenses during the mini-Ice Age. The effort failed and silver vanished from circulation as people began hoarding them causing the entire economy to collapse. The copper money was naturally devalued in purchasing power and then there were widespread counterfeiting operations since the official value of the copper coinage became far in excess of the cost of production. The economy collapsed into a deflationary black hole as businesses shut down and unemployment rose dramatically. This erupted into what has become known as the Copper Riots of 1662.

The German bankers, the Fuggers, emerged as the leading Augsburg merchant-banker, who then provided loans to local rulers secured with the silver produce of their mines. The discovery of vast silver mines eventually led to the development in 1525 of the one-ounce silver coin that was the thaler from which we derive the name “dollar” as the alternative to the British pound after the American Revolution. The Joachimsthaler of the Kingdom of Bohemia was therefore the first thaler ideally with a weight of 31 grams or one troy ounce.

copper-panic-1662

As the silver mines were declining, the decline in the supply of silver led to the rise of copper coinage during the next century. This was not an isolated incident confined to Russia. There was a shortage of precious metals going into 1662. It was most profound in Russia. Nevertheless, the price of gold rose sharply from the low of 1655 in a 7-year bull market. This also reflected the deflationary atmosphere that was emerging thanks also to the mini-Ice Age which was peaking during the 17th century yet would last well into the mid-19th century.

It was Spain’s silver mine known as the great red Cerro Rico or ‘Rich Hill’ that towered over the city of Potosí in Bolivia. It had been mined since 1545 by drafted armies of natives. The great silver boom of c1575-1635 was when Potosí alone produced nearly half the world’s silver. But the mine’s yield was starting to decline. By 1678, native workers became scarce and the output of the mines began to dwindle. This was the royal mint that produced vast amounts of ‘pieces of eight’, which became the precursor of the American dollar. The shortage of labor ended up being augmented by purchasing African slaves from the Dutch who were buying them under the pretense that they were the spoils of war, which had been the justification for slaves from ancient times.

As the quantity of new silver in the world monetary system was declining, we begin to see the rise of copper coinage make its first appearance under James I of England (1603-1625). Due to a shortage of small coins, James I authorized John Harrington to issue tin-coated bronze farthings in 1613, and three main types were minted – the last being a slightly larger copper farthing without the tin coating. The first halfpenny was introduced in 1672 by Charles II (1660-1685). Charles II issued some copper halfpennies and farthings in 1672 for a single year but issued farthings again in 1873. The next issue of a farthing was struck in a tin but during 1684 and 1685.

However, in 1694 the Bank of England was established to raise money for King William III’s war against France. The Bank started to issue notes in return for deposits. Therefore, the money supply for the first time began to include paper currency. By 1695 the first fraud took place. The authorities prosecuted Daniel Perrismore for forging sixty £100 notes. This incident caused the Bank of England to introduce a watermark in the paper to prevent such fraud. This was further enhanced by making counterfeiting subjected to the death penalty as a felony resulting in the confiscation of all your wealth and throwing your family out of the street as well. Pictured here, is a protest imitation note. The law was being prosecuted on the mere possession of a forged note. The complaint here was that these one-pound notes were easily forged and innocent people were duped, thereby committing a felony by mere possession. They were being hanged with no proof that they created the forgery – merely that they possessed one. This was creating an incentive not to even accept the notes in transactions.

George I, II, and III all issued copper halfpennies. George III’s halfpennies were dated 1770 to 1772. The economic hard times no doubt contributed to the riots of 1780. After those events, at Newgate Prison in March 1782 a female alleged counterfeiter of halfpennies was hanged. She was then fixed to a stake and burned before the debtor’s door at Newgate prison in London as a further example of not to counterfeit.

In a letter to Lord Hawkesbury on April 14th, 1789, Matthew Boulton, who is considered the Grandfather of modern coinage,  commented

“In the course of my journeys, I observe that I receive upon average two-thirds counterfeit halfpence for change at toll-gates, etc., and I believe the evil is daily increasing, as the spurious money is carried into circulation by the lowest class of manufacturers, who pay with it the principal part of the wages of the poor people they employ”.

Boulton’s contract in 1797 to produce the Cartwheel pennies and twopences, thwarting the counterfeiters, did not extend to producing the halfpenny, though Boulton had expected that it would, and had prepared patterns of the appropriate size and weight in accordance with his ideas on the intrinsic value of copper coins. The reason the government gave for the omission of the denomination from the contract was that a large number of de facto halfpennies (including tokens and fakes) would be driven out of circulation and Boulton would be unable to produce enough coins to meet the demand that would ensue.

To avoid being hung for counterfeiting and burned at the stake, there was a multitude of halfpenny tokens. Many were of a political nature as this one complaining about the cost of bread. The government yielded to the private halfpenny tokens which became the majority of the small change. The overall public demand for legal halfpennies soon forced the government to change its mind, and in 1798 a contract was issued to Boulton for him to produce halfpennies and farthings dated 1799.

Interestingly, it was also at this time when inflation sent the price of copper rising, and consequently, the weight of the coins was reduced slightly, which resulted in them not being as popular as expected. In 1806 a further 427.5 tons of copper was struck into halfpennies by Boulton, but the price of copper had risen again and the weight was even less than the 1799 issue. This time, however, there was no unfavorable reaction from the public, so perhaps the national obsession with “intrinsic value” had run its course.

This was a very curious period where private money dominated the money supply for halfpennies. There are other periods where this has emerged in history primarily due to the shortage of real official money. One of the earliest such periods was during the reign of the Roman Emperor Tiberius (14-37AD).

Tiberius was legendary to be a frugal emperor. His deliberate contraction in creating new money led to the Financial Panic of 33AD. As far as Quantitative Easing, that too was nothing new. Tiberius offered loans INTEREST-FREE, but they had a limitation of three years. This was to prevent people from being forced to sell their estates further depressing land values.

There was a major earthquake in Asia, modern Turkey, and this was so devastating, he issued coins stating they were for the relief of Asia. He also waived all taxes in the region for 5 years – something our modern-day politicians would never dream of.

The lesson from history reveals that at times there emerges the acceptance of private money. During the 1870s, we also see private tokens circulating as money in the United States. Collectors call them the Hard Times Tokens. The very same thing took place during the American Civil War.

During the Great Depression, the shortage of money led to more than 200 cities issuing their own paper currency. As long as everyone in town accepted it, these Depressions Scrips enable people to work and to be paid locally when there was simply not enough federal money to go around.

During the Hyperinflation in Germany of the 1920s, there again we see private currency being printed known as NOTGELD. Therefore, in the end, when the confidence in government declines, society is compelled to return to a barter-based society and that is when we begin to see private forms of money take hold.