Category The Red Pill or the Blue Pill

Dec 9 2022

A Test of Intelligence


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Dec 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, your dog is a cutie! I hate to tell you, but your dog will eventually learn to spell. My wife and I had two poodle-bichons, now deceased after 15 1/2 wonderful years. At first we used your method of spelling out rather than using certain words. In about 2 weeks, they got wise and equated the sound and sequence of the letters with things that they liked to do or eat. There was no fooling them. I have found that smaller dogs are much more clever than the large ones; also, mixed breeds seem to be smarter – and tougher – than the purebreds. There are, of course, exceptions.
In all honesty, dogs are smarter than a lot of people that I know. They are aware of their environment and, if permitted to do so, adapt as necessary.
Thanks for all that you do. Your write-up on price controls and pegs was particularly useful for me. Have a great day and an even better weekend!!!
MG

REPLY: I for one probably never considered the intelligence of a dog. Being engrossed in AI programming, I had to really understand how we think. For example, perhaps the night you fell in love your mind was recording everything unknowingly. You might recall that memory from any individual sense. The food, the smell, the song that was playing, the place, and so on. That memory exists but it can be accessed by any single sense. That was very important in trying to understand even how to begin to program AI. It obviously could not be a simple linear progression – IF x THEN y ELSE z – (the fundamental programming equation.

What I was stunned by was she indeed was building a knowledge base keeping track of what I would do and what I like and then could develop patterns to forecast what I would do next. But she was also displaying strategy. I would throw a ball and expect the standard go fetch. Then she would take the ball and drop it down the stairs and more or less say, OK, now your turn – go fetch. I was simply not prepared to actually interact with a dog that was intelligent aside from the emotional reactions of happy to see you etc. She was displaying the same patterns of thinking that I studied to create AI. Even more fascinating, she was displaying traits of curiosity. I throw the clothes from the washer to the dryer and she has to come and watch. I had heard the saying that curiosity killed the cat. But I never really thought much of it.

She sparked my curiosity. Was she exceptional? Was this normal? A study took place at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Germany. The study worked with 32 dogs and 20 chimpanzees who were each to carry out the same task. The dogs all responded positively and immediately. However, the chimpanzees didn’t seem to understand what was being asked of them. She would bark at another dog but hold her up to the mirror and she knew it was her. In fact, only a small percentage of animal species have passed this mirror test.

Actions not only speak louder than words, they are the key to understanding how we think as well as even our pets.  Spatial thinking is the foundation of thought and evolved long before even language and as such, you can see it in even your dog’s behavior. Spatial thinking is the knowledge, skills, and habits of the mind using the concepts of space such as distance, orientation, distribution, and association. Even throwing a ball for a dog or faking a throw and they quickly use these same tools to conclude where the ball went or if you never threw it in the first place.

We use such Spatial thinking tools of representation such as maps, graphs, and diagrams, for trading, and how we process these images forms the cornerstone of our reasoning. In other words,  this is the ability for cognitive strategies to facilitate even problem-solving and decision-making. It is the foundation of the very structure of problem-solving, finding answers, and expressing that as the solutions to these problems.

I confess, I never expected a dog to have such qualities of intelligence. I suppose I was biased and just never expected anything so I did not look. This is what I taught Socrates to do. Explore everything and retain curiosity at all costs. Check if Azuki Beans in Japan might become a replacement for fossil fuels – which it is not. However, if we do not look we cannot answer that question definitively.

So pay attention to your dog. You might be surprised that they do not love you because you simply feed them. There is a lot more going on that I never would have expected myself.

Dec 7 2022

Georgia Senate Contest – Day One of Election Ballot Counting, Warnock vs Walker – Open Discussion


Posted originally on the CTH on December 6, 2022 | Sundance 

On the first of three days of ballot counting, Georgia Republican Senate candidate Hershel Walker is in a runoff with Georgia Democrat Senate candidate Raphael Warnock.

Most of Hershel Walker’s votes will be counted today, however votes for Raphael Warnock will come in over the next several days.   If the race is close tonight, the inbound mail ballots sitting in parked vans, cars and busses around Atlanta will deliver the Warnock outcome on Wednesday or Thursday.

[Politico] – Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker are locked in a tight race in Georgia’s Senate runoff, with blue-leaning early voters breaking hard for Warnock but the red-leaning Election Day vote swinging toward Walker as those ballots were tallied later Tuesday night. {Politico Results Here}

[New York Times Results Here]  Atlanta will likely deliver.

Dec 7 2022

Harmeet Dhillon Expands Discussion on Her Priority for RNC Change During Interview with Steve Bannon


Posted originally on the CTH on December 6, 2022 | Sundance 

Harmeet Dhillon Expands Discussion on Her Priority for RNC Change During Interview with Steve Bannon

December 6, 2022 | Sundance | 88 Comments

California Republican National Committee (RNC) Representative Harmeet Dhillon appears with Steve Bannon to give her expanded explanation of why she wants to become RNC chair and the reforms she views are needed within the national body. {Direct Rumble Link}

Mrs. Dhillon expresses a desire to remove the current divide that exists between RNC national members and the base voters within the states.  Reemphasizing the need for the populist voice to have representation in the Republican Party, Mrs. Dhillon outlines the need to shift priorities in order to align with the base voter. WATCH:

Steve Bannon is correct mid-interview when he says 95% of the donor apparatus to the RNC are globalist Wall Street billionaires and corporations who want the RNC aligned with their financial priorities.  That is a big issue and one not easily resolved.  As long as the RNC emphasizes the importance of money, the voice of the voting base will always be a secondary consideration.

The DNC wants power. The RNC wants money. The DNC uses money to get power. The RNC uses power to get money.  The ideology of the DNC drives their donor activity. The donor activity of the RNC drives their ideology.  This is the essential difference.

If you want to fracture the internecine relationships behind the RNC business model, here are my suggestions:

Start with the standards to be a member of the Republican National Committee. Structure the by-laws for RNC committee membership as you would a company with rules and regulations on the members.

First, no RNC national committee member, can be a registered or unregistered lobbyist. If you want to be a political lobbyist, you cannot be a Republican National Committee member.

Next, no RNC national committee member can be part of a Political Action Committee; run a PAC or SuperPAC or be a participating member of PAC or SuperPAC.

All RNC members must adhere to principles of representing voters, not internal party candidates. No RNC member can operate in any capacity on behalf of any candidate for any elected office.

As a Republican National Committee member, you are not allowed to be a contractor or subcontracted agent for the RNC with any financial interest in the outcome of RNC decisions.

No RNC committee member can operate a consulting business that *sells* services, directly or indirectly to the RNC, or otherwise benefits financially from the Republican National Committee.

Republican National Committee members agree to represent the voter interests of the RNC and carry no direct, indirect or familial relationship, with any donor to the RNC in excess of $100k that intersects with any official RNC business.

No Republican National Committee member, nor member of their immediate family, can hold interest in any group, firm, business or political entity (profit or nonprofit), that draws financial benefit from the RNC.

All RNC members agree to submit copies of their federal income tax filings to the RNC for review on a bi-annual basis, or as requested by the Chair of the committee.

Membership at the RNC is an ‘at will’ agreement, subject to removal and/or revocation of membership status by the national Chair at any time – with state chapters providing a replacement within 60 days.

State appointments to the RNC must pass a standard criminal background check conducted by, and at the expense of, the state chapter.

The National Republican Committee will form an advisory council to the Chair and establish a standard code of ethical conduct required for membership that will outline and define rules of conduct and other member rules deemed necessary to avoid any conflicts of interest.

No national RNC member can receive any financial benefit as an outcome of national RNC membership.

Unfortunately, the nature of the RNC assembly is the exact reason why this series of rules and or standards would never be allowed.  The RNC Committee Members, including Harmeet Dhillon herself, operate within a system that creates influence and affluence of the membership.  If you take away the money to be made with RNC national membership, particularly removing the ability of RNC members to sell influence to third parties and donors, the entire reason people join the RNC collapses.

The priority of the DNC is to win elections, assemble power and by extension control the mechanisms that deliver them wealth.  The priority of the RNC is money, and by extension winning elections is not the most important thing. The priority of the RNC is the accumulation of wealth for itself.

The DNC has ideology as their core mission objective, that focus drives their fundraising and ballot collection. In this approach the ideology remains consistent.  However, the RNC has monetary gain as their core mission objective, and that drives their ideology.  The RNC ideology is therefore subject to being purchased by the desires of the current biggest buyer.

The Democrats want power. The Republicans want money. The DNC uses money to get power. The RNC uses power to get money.

The biggest issue within the dynamic of the RNC is the lack of honesty, transparency and clear thinking stewardship.  The RNC regards Republican voters as annoyances to be overcome and managed in the assembly of their priority, money.

Harmeet Dhillon has expressed on her social media and recent interviews that she wants to change this dynamic.

We will find out late January.

Dec 7 2022

Elon Musk Fires Twitter General Counsel James Baker for Manipulating and Filtering Twitter File Release – “His explanation was unconvincing”


Posted originally on the CTH on December 6, 2022 | Sundance

Yesterday, we speculated publicly the first set of “Twitter Files” released was heavily pre-filtered by internal stakeholders connected to DHS who hold a vested interest in controlling any evidence of Twitter’s former political activity.

Knowing there are multiple executives remaining within the company who previously aligned with the intents of government, specifically DHS officials, to control the platform, the prediction was not a stretch. Indeed, it just made common sense.

Former FBI Chief Legal Counsel James Baker, a man of notoriously corrupt disposition, was one of those former government officials who started working for Twitter as general counsel.  James Baker (pictured below left) working as a government mechanism for filtration of damaging information was not a leap. Again, just common sense.

Today, as an outcome of internal discoveries that indeed Jim Baker did prefilter internal documents in order to mitigate sunlight and exposure [outline here], Twitter CEO Elon Musk fired legal counsel James Baker.

Mr Musk said through his Twitter account, “In light of concerns about Baker’s possible role in suppression of information important to the public dialogue, he was exited from Twitter today.”  Mr. Musk followed up a question about James Baker being asked to explain himself by saying, “His explanation was …unconvincing.”

Matt Taibbi provides the context:

Taibbi – On Friday, the first installment of the Twitter files was published here. We expected to publish more over the weekend. Many wondered why there was a delay.

We can now tell you part of the reason why. On Tuesday, Twitter Deputy General Counsel (and former FBI General Counsel) Jim Baker was fired. Among the reasons? Vetting the first batch of “Twitter Files” – without knowledge of new management.

The process for producing the “Twitter Files” involved delivery to two journalists (Bari Weiss and me) via a lawyer close to new management. However, after the initial batch, things became complicated.

Over the weekend, while we both dealt with obstacles to new searches, it was @Bari Weiss who discovered that the person in charge of releasing the files was someone named Jim. When she called to ask “Jim’s” last name, the answer came back: “Jim Baker.”

“My jaw hit the floor,” says Weiss.

The first batch of files both reporters received was marked, “Spectra Baker Emails.”

Baker is a controversial figure. He has been something of a Zelig of FBI controversies dating back to 2016, from the Steele Dossier to the Alfa-Server mess. He resigned in 2018 after an investigation into leaks to the press.

The news that Baker was reviewing the “Twitter files” surprised everyone involved, to say the least. New Twitter chief Elon Musk acted quickly to “exit” Baker Tuesday. (LINK)

Big Picture:  The Twitter Files are a threat vector to a bigger story [GO DEEP].  The DHS, DOJ, FBI and ODNI U.S. government elements who operated with control over the social media platform did so as an outcome of the larger surveillance state [GO DEEP].  That surveillance state was deployed against Donald Trump in 2016 and everything as an outcome of that failed effort, and the ongoing coverup effort, is what surrounds the current DOJ effort to attack and remove the threat Donald Trump represents.

Dec 6 2022

Musk Unveils ‘Twitter Files’


Newsmax TV Published originally on Rumble on December 5, 2022 

Elon Musk’s release of the “Twitter Files” confirms what Republicans have already been saying. The social media giant was colluding with the F-B-I and the 2020 Biden campaign.

Dec 6 2022

Steve Scalise reacts to Twitter censorship of Hunter Biden


Ainsley Earhardt Published originally on Rumble on December 6, 2022

Steve Scalise reacts to Twitter censorship of Hunter Biden: ‘Going to get exposed’

Dec 6 2022

$80 Trillion Derivatives Market


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Dec 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has warned in its latest quarterly report that there is $80 trillion dollar in off-balance sheet dollar debt in the form of FX swaps. This has involved pension funds and other ‘non-bank’ financial firms.

What they do not explain is that each “debt” has a counterparty that has an “asset” and in theory, that works out to net zero. But there is counter-party risk that is not discussed. This doesn’t address the liquidity issue either. Still, it is not entirely a black hole as they seem to lead some to proclaim. What is also left unexplained or addressed is the question of if they are netting across all transactions. Many of the players in this market have offsetting positions. It is one thing to scream OMG the size of the stock market is too big, and another to yell fire in a crowded theater.

This $80 trill is effectively the derivatives market. It is what it is. Marking everything to market all the time isn’t a great answer either for there can be imbalances for a day or two in the middle of chaos. What is clear is that the BIS is raising concerns, in which it also said this year’s market upheaval took place without any major issues.

On the other hand, the BIS has been pushing central banks to raise rates to fight inflation which will only accelerate the crisis since it is shortage based. This is no different from the ’70s when there was an external price shock from OPEC,. Raising interest rates did nothing to prevent inflation, instead, it resulted in a strong dollar, the collapse of the pound to $1.03 in 1985, and the US national debt more than doubled on interest expenditures.

Nonetheless, the BIS has been quieter on the inflation front this time around. Just maybe, they are starting to realize that the old theories no longer work. The September UK government bond market turmoil was created by raising interest rates and the losses on holding long-term debt in the face of rising interest rates have been just the tip of the iceberg.

The FX swap markets have become huge. Our clients are well into the trillions these days whereas twenty years ago we had less than 5 clients at the $1 trillion threshold.

Nonetheless, the complexity of the cross-positions is the real risk. One side can blow out because of the chaos these braindead politicians are creating with this war against Russia.

Dec 6 2022

President Trump Was Correct About the Constitution and Elections – Kari Lake’s Lawsuit Shows Why


Posted originally on the CTH on December 5, 2022 | Sundance 

President Donald Trump came under massive amounts of fire recently for saying, “So, with the revelation of MASSIVE & WIDESPREAD FRAUD & DECEPTION in working closely with Big Tech Companies, the DNC, & the Democrat Party, do you throw the Presidential Election Results of 2020 OUT and declare the RIGHTFUL WINNER, or do you have a NEW ELECTION? A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution. Our great “Founders” did not want, and would not condone, False & Fraudulent Elections!”

What President Trump is noting, is the exact same reason why Kari Lake’s lawsuit, like every other election lawsuit before it, will fail.   Our U.S. Constitution permits election fraud and manipulation, as long as that state level election fraud and manipulation does not break federal law.  {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:

Obviously, it would be frustrating for President Trump to ask legal advisors what can be done about certified results from fraudulently constructed elections.  The reply from the legal advisors around the state certification would frustrate anybody, because the constitution permits fraudulent elections.   The decision on how to conduct elections is entirely up to the states.

The states, via state legislature, determine their election rules, laws and outcomes that eventually lead to state certification.  If a state wants to block voters, impede voters, or manipulate the voting outcome, there is generally nothing in federal law to stop them – as long as the state or county does not break federal laws protecting classes or protected categories of persons.

Federal law generally prohibits disenfranchisement of people based on race, age, national origin, sex, marital status, disability, pregnancy, gender, sexual orientation and disability, along with other categories.

Federal law does not prohibit disenfranchisement based on ideology, political affiliation or outlook.  If a state or local election system wants to block voters based on affiliation or ideology, they can…. as long as it doesn’t have a disparate impact on the protected category.

If a state legislature wanted to assign 1/2 value to each Republican vote, there is nothing in the constitution that would prohibit that rule.

If a state election outcome results in the loss of 50% of the republican votes in the local or state election, there is nothing in the federal law that would correct the issue.  The state is responsible for certifying the results.

The supreme court will not hear an election controversy issue or legal challenge based on certified results from states.  The constitution permits states to conduct their own elections, and as long as federal laws are not violated, the state certification ends the discussion.  This is the great dichotomy within U.S. election around election manipulation by a state or local election officials.  There is no federal recourse if no federally protected category was adversely impacted.

The DNC argues election disenfranchisement, rules, dates, times, locations, etc based entirely on protected federal categories, ie. the date or method of the election has an adverse impact to a specifically protected category of racial minorities.  This is the typical DNC lawsuit.

EX. the RNC or DNC candidates have no legal footing to sue in federal court if everyone wearing a green shirt was turned away from county polling locations; unless they can prove that a green shirt was worn by a higher percentage of a protected category of persons (i.e., disparate impact).

Additionally, due to the private nature of the corporations that run candidates, notably the RNC and DNC, there is also no prohibition to stop the RNC or DNC from disapproving candidates unless they also were discriminating based on a protected category.   Not coincidentally, political parties are not recognized in the U.S. constitution.

This election reality is why control over state level elections is where the battle has to be fought.   Once a state certifies the election outcome, there is almost no way the federal courts can/will intervene unless the lawsuit is based on a claim that federally protected voters were specifically targeted.

Dec 5 2022

12.3.22: Twitter Q&A brilliance unfolds. @JamesWoods responds. All related to PIZZ@. MUSK targeted. PRAY!


And We Know Published originally on Rumble on December 3, 2022 

A deep dark World Unveiled is the Country worth Saving?

Dec 5 2022

The End of Freedom & Our Right to Even Vote


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Dec 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Naturally, I have received emails from those on the left and Elon Musk appears to be rising to that coveted spot of hatred once monopolized by Trump. Musk has outright suggested that Twitter was acting under government orders to suppress free speech, with his remarks coming hot on the heels of the release of a trove of documents that lift the lid on some of the social media platform’s censorship machinations around the 2020 presidential election.

The problem is that the LEFT never looks at anything objective. They have their agenda to rule over everyone and it will always come down to civil war, violence, and blood in the streets because they will NEVER back down – it has to be their way of no way. They do not believe in any democratic process.

So while they will dismiss such stories as conspiracy theories, in New Zealand, the government has admitted that Facebook gave them direct access to flag what they wanted to be censored. The rumor behind the curtain is that Zuckerberg has provided the same privilege to the USA so he could get the authority to move into banking.

The LEFT has been moving globally to seize power and the risk remains that their objective is precisely one of the points of the WEF’s 8 forecasts – the end of Democracy. They want to seize power and become a dictatorship with their philosophy and strip us of our right to even vote. They argue that the system is collapsing so they need to seize all power, The future they envision is very dark and cold.

In all honesty, if we can buy online securely, then why can we not vote online? My staff could have written the code to allow national voting I bet in less than 30 days. NEVER in my entire life have we ever had to wait so long to find out who won an election. In the ’60s, we knew that night. With the advancement of technology, the method of voting has been moving back in time. Even in the Roman Empire, they knew who would win an election in less than 24 hours.

All of this chaos in voting is ominous indeed. It appears to be setting up the entire affair to end elections and we must then face just a usurpation of power. The net result of these elections is to undermine the public confidence in voting anyhow. Joseph Stalin perhaps is the only one to ever tell the truth about elections.