Category World Economic Form

Sep 17 2022

DOJ Files Appellate Court Motion for Partial Stay Against Judge Cannon Ruling, DOJ Does Not Want Classified Documents Reviewed


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 17, 2022 | Sundance 

As the DOJ-NSD originally threatened, they have filed an appeal of the ruling by Judge Cannon in the Trump Mar-a-Lago document case. [Pdf Here]

The DOJ is requesting the 11th Circuit Court to intervene and “stay” or block a part of the ruling surrounding letting the Special Master, Judge Raymond J Dearie, review the “classified documents” and make an independent determination as to the validity of the DOJ-NSD claims.

Having read all the motions in the case, you can get a sense of the authorship from the motion.  From my perspective this effort appears to have been written by the Lawfare group and filed by their allies in Main Justice at the DOJ National Security Division (DOJ-NSD).  The bottom line is they really don’t want any outside party making a determination as to the status of the 100 “classified documents,” and/or consider if President Trump had previously declassified them.

The crux of their position is outlined in this part of the motion, which appears to hold a logical fallacy [pdf link Here]:

The framework of the appeal appears to be built on a false premise.  The DOJ argument is contingent upon the government not having the original documents, and the claim is made *AS IF* there is only one copy.  Even if this appeal is within the framework of a valid issue for an appellate court review (not a guarantee), when you apply commonsense the motion fails on its face.

The original documents are always retained by the originating agency.  No one, not even the President, sees original intelligence documents from within any agency creating the product.  Everything, including what President Trump would have seen while in office, and including any “read and return” version of the intelligence product, is a copy that stems from the originals.  As a result, the executive branch (DOJ) has access to the originals regardless of what copies they may have retrieved from Mar-a-Lago.

Once again, the DOJ -together with the internal intelligence agency, likely the ODNI- is claiming to be the arbiter of the “classification” status of the documents at issue.  If President Trump declassified those documents before leaving office (he did), the “classification” status, another underlying premise, is automatically moot.  This reality is the central flaw in the DOJ case and appears to form the basis for Main Justice to be so adamant against anyone else reviewing the documents.

So, there are two structural flaws: (1) There is more than one copy of the documents being argued, and the DOJ has access to the originals; and (2) the classified status of those documents is unknown (hence a special master), and if they were declassified the DOJ-NSD contention around them is automatically moot.

The Special Master appointed by judge Cannon is a former FISA Judge FISA judge.  Judge Raymond J Dearie likely has seen thousands of classified documents over the years, he is not a national security risk by reviewing another set of defined classified documents.  Additionally, the documents have been in Mar-a-Lago for almost two years, the urgency claims by Main Justice look silly.

The DOJ-NSD looks desperate and nonsensical in this filing because the arguments being made by the DOJ-NSD are desperate and nonsensical.

The currently presented legal conflict is essentially over a judicial ruling that -if implemented- resolves the legal conflict.  Therefore, there is no guarantee the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals will even take the DOJ motion under review.  The legal conflict seemingly resolves if the existing judicial ruling is applied.

We keep watching….

(New York Times) – WASHINGTON — The Justice Department asked an appeals court on Friday to let the F.B.I. regain access to about 100 sensitive documents taken from former President Donald J. Trump’s residence in Florida but did not try to block the appointment of an outside arbiter to review other materials.

In a 29-page filing, the department asked the appeals court not to submit the roughly 100 files marked as classified through the vetting process of the arbiter, known as a special master — acquiescing to the review for 11,000 other documents seized from Mr. Trump’s home and resort, Mar-a-Lago. The review has frozen the government’s access to the material as it investigates Mr. Trump’s handling of the documents.

“Although the government believes the district court fundamentally erred in appointing a special master and granting injunctive relief, the government seeks to stay only the portions of the order causing the most serious and immediate harm to the government and the public,” wrote lawyers with the department’s national security division.

[…] The Justice Department initially asked Judge Cannon to stay the portion of her order that blocked it from full investigative use of the 100 or so files with classification markings, but on Thursday she refused to do so. That prompted law enforcement officials to ask the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, in Atlanta, to issue a stay instead. (read more)

Sep 17 2022

On The Radar, Wave 3 of Food Price Inflation Soon to Arrive


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 16, 2022 | sundance

You know that moment just before the tsunami hits, when the water is pulled out to sea?  Yeah, that.

Media are starting to realize what a destabilizing force ‘food insecurity’ can become as the pre-existing high prices are about to go even higher.

(WASHINGTON, Via The Hill) – […] the five items that have seen the largest year-over-year price increase based on the latest report from the Labor Department, and how much the price has changed: Eggs 39.8%, Margarine: 38.3%, Butter: 24.6%, Flour/prepared flour mixes: 23.3%, Olives, pickles, relish: 19.4%

Many of the items listed in the Consumer Price Index have seen prices rise by more than 15% compared to August 2021. That includes chicken (16.6%), soups (18.5%), cereals (17.4%), and milk (17%).

[…] Worsening food inflation is a particular strain on lower-income families, more of whom have had to turn to food banks and other aid as inflation has worsened. Mary Jane Crouch, executive director of America’s Second Harvest of Coastal Georgia, which works with a network of food banks, told the Associated Press 38% more food was distributed in August compared with July.

Sales at grocery stores rose 0.5% in August, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Overall spending has slowed and shifted increasingly toward necessities like food, while spending on electronics, furniture, new clothes and other non-necessities has faded. (read more)

The energy driven inflation in seed, fertilizer, diesel fuel, solvents and industrial surfactants is about to travel from the field into the food supply chain with the fall harvest commencing.  Wave 3 food price increases are likely to be higher than the prior two waves combined.

Overlay that pricing issue with global shortages and what do you get?….

Fortunately, I am optimistic that most readers here are well prepared.

Sep 17 2022

Panicked Germany Seizes Russian Energy Company Rosneft, Uses National Trusteeship to Control Oil Refinery – The Current Economic Outlook of Europe, Full State Control of Critical Energy Production


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 16, 2022 | sundance

Welcome to the new “democratic norms” in the industrialized west as Germany seizes the private assets of Russian owned energy company Rosneft; because oil refining is critical to fuel prices and German has just realized their vulnerability.

Within this new Build Back Better system, driven by the policies of western nations, it appears things are changing quickly.  Democracy or capitalism in Germany is now quickly dispatched, as socialism -state control- becomes the priority.

Heck, I’m old enough to remember when everyone decried China’s authoritarian economic model for doing the exact same thing as Germany (a few months ago).  But, well, we must pretend not to notice these things comrades….

(Reuters) – BERLIN, Sept 16 (Reuters) – Germany took control of a major Russian-owned oil refinery on Friday, risking retaliation from Moscow as Berlin strives to shore up energy supplies and meet its European Union commitment to eliminate Russian oil imports by the end of the year.

The economy ministry said it was putting a unit of Russian oil firm Rosneft (ROSN.MM) under the trusteeship of the industry regulator and taking over the business’ Schwedt refinery, which supplies 90% of Berlin’s fuel.

“This is a far-reaching energy policy decision to protect our country,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz told a news conference to present the government’s plans to put the Schwedt refinery under the control of the Federal Network Agency regulator. (read more)

Who knew economic security was national security?

Now, let’s start talking about USA food exports, shall we?

Also, I’ll take “Things That Won’t End Well” for $1000, Alex.

Sep 15 2022

Ukraine Carrying out Assassinations in Moscow


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There are reports on the Russian General SVR Telegram channel, which tends to be an anti-Putin station, that is claiming there was an inside-job attempt to assassinate Putin with an attack on his motorcade. He was not harmed. They are claiming that the first car of the convoy was blocked by an ambulance, but the second car made a slight detour and did not stop. A loud bang was supposedly heard from Putin’s car, but it continued and arrived safely at the president’s residence.

They further claimed that the body of a man was then found driving the ambulance. They have reported that the head of the president’s bodyguards and several other people have been suspended and are in custody. Nobody has been named and there is no other news service that has reported this claim.

When we look at our models, the real higher volatility and the turning point in Russia appear to be in October, which is also a Panic cycle in the ruble. What we do see is that the Ukrainians carried out assassination hits in Russia. They have been trying to target Putin to kill him without success so far. They tried to kill Aleksandr Dugin with a car bomb, but they killed his daughter Darya Dugina. This is the car bombing of a pro-Putin supporter in Moscow. The sheer hatred between Ukrainian and Russians is legendary and as such the likelihood of this ever reaching peace is unlikely.

My sources continue to suggest that removing Putin will escalate things, not stop them. The hardliners will seize power and that will not be good going into 2023. Claiming they have Putin on the run is not going to win the day in Ukraine. It runs the risk of really escalating things for the hardliners in Moscow are criticizing Putin for being too soft on Ukraine. He for the first time started to attack their power grid. The hardliners will push for a serious attack against Ukraine rather than just securing the Donbas.

Sep 15 2022

Debt Diplomacy – Is China the East IMF?


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The International Monetary Fund is not the only option for countries in desperate need of funding. The Financial Times recently reported that China has been sending out tens of billions in secretive “emergency loans” to countries facing financial hardship.

China and others have been known to invest in emerging or struggling economies, but China seems to be upping its aid and has provided more funds than even the World Bank. AidData revealed that Pakistan, Argentina, and Sri Lanka alone had received $32.83 billion since 2017. Former Vice President Mike Pence accused China of using “’debt diplomacy’ to expand its influence. [China] is offering hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure loans to governments from Asia to Africa to Europe and even Latin America. Yet the terms of those loans are opaque at best, and the benefits invariably flow overwhelmingly to Beijing.” Pence claimed that China would prey upon poor nations and take ownership of key infrastructure upon default. Another example of the pot calling the kettle black, so to speak.

Pence used the example of Sri Lanka who was pushed into default, opening room for China to construct a military base in the port of Hambantota. The Atlantic published an article in 2021 to say that Pence’s claims of China ushering in their military to Sri Lanka was a lie, as if China wouldn’t jump on such an opportunity. Last month, in August 2022, China dispatched military ships to Hambantota with the intention of using the port for dual commercial and military use. Remember that Sri Lanka recently overthrew its president and has been in utter disarray — their economy completely collapsed.

“Sri Lanka needs financial assistance, and it would not want to displease China by revoking the permission,” Jehan Perera, executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, told VOA. At this time, they are not building a military base, but it is possible as Chinese companies took out a 99-year lease on the area in 2017. Sri Lanka was seeking a loan from the IMF, but they were unwilling to take on such risky debt. Business is business. Sri Lanka was desperate, and China was willing to come to their aid, but governments only act in their self-interest and would not take on risks if they did not see a way to monetize that risk.

So yes, China is willing to take on the risks that the IMF will not. Unlike the IMF, China does not need to disclose its investments. China is investing less in US and Western debt and has turned its attention to indebted nations. This may be one of the reasons that our computer predicts China will become the next financial capital of the world by 2037.25.

Sep 15 2022

Switzerland to Imprison People for Heating Homes


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Imagine going to jail for three long years for heating your home or business. That now may become a reality in Switzerland, where heating your home above 19 C (66.2 F) is considered excessive and a punishable offense. Water may not be heated above 60C (140F), and saunas and hot tubs powered by radiant heaters are prohibited. Indoor swimming pools also must remain cold.

Markus Sporndli, a spokesman for the Federal Department of Finance, said that people could be charged a daily fine of 30 francs for disobeying, but the fee could spike to 3,000 francs. The government is warning that there could be “spot checks” and said they would send authorities if someone reports a resident or business for breaking the law. Switzerland imposed fines and expected neighbors to turn on one another for COVID, and this is yet another power grab.

The law is still being finalized, but this is yet another way for the government to turn the common person into a criminal. The government, not the people, created this energy crisis and now demands that the people suffer for their mismanagement. Some are calling these measures “Green fascism” or “ecofascism.”

Historian Michael E. Zimmerman defined ecofascism as follows: “a totalitarian government that requires individuals to sacrifice their interests to the well-being of the ‘land,’ understood as the splendid web of life, or the organic whole of nature, including peoples and their states.” Expect to see this trend rise as temperatures decline.

Sep 15 2022

Making Sweden Great Again – After Stunning Election Victories Sweden Shifts Right, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson Resigns


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 14, 2022 | Sundance

Within the politics of Sweden, the ‘Sweden Democrat‘ party is the equivalent of MAGA Republicans.  As a result, the European media call them “far-right.”

As the results of last weekend’s election are finally tabulated, the anti-globalist parties in Sweden have surged to victory.  With all of the consequences from globalist policies creating havoc in the country, the political dynamic in Sweden has now flipped.

Do not let this election outcome slip your geopolitical reference point.  Current Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has lost the majority coalition. She has resigned.  European leftists are shocked and big mad.

(Dutsche Welle) – Sweden’s right-wing opposition appears to have won in a razor-thin electoral race. The big winner of the elections are the far-right Sweden Democrats, who could become part of government for the first time.Sweden’s right-wing opposition appears to have won a thin majority in the country’s parliament with nearly all votes counted.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said that she would resign and that preliminary results were clear enough to draw conclusions. She said that it was important that Sweden gets a new government as soon as possible.

Leader of the nationalist Sweden Democrats, Jimmie Akesson, declared victory and pledged to “put Sweden first.”

Coalition leader Ulf Kristersson of the conservative Moderates is likely to become Prime Minister.

The results were too close to call before postal and overseas votes had been included into the count. So far, the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals hold a two-seat lead over the governing Social Democrats.

Some 99% of votes from all 6,578 voting districts had been counted by late on Wednesday. If results were confirmed, the right-wing opposition would win 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament.

As the current count shows, just 47,000 votes separate the left- and right-wing blocs from each other.

The governing Social Democrats and its coalition would win 173 seats in this instance, the tallies showed.

Never before have the Sweden Democrats, a party who relies on anti-immigration and nationalist rhetoric, been part of a government.  The party has so far won more than 20 percent of ballots, becoming the second-biggest party behind outgoing Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, which have dominated Swedish politics since the 1930s. (more)

“The peasants are revolting”….

Sep 14 2022

Gun Purchases to be Tracked by Global Organization


Armstrong Economics Blog/Regulation Re-Posted Sep 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The far left is eager to repeal 2A. We are not as free as we think. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO), an organization headquartered all the way in Geneva, will be tracking all gun purchases made on credit. The ISO develops standard documentation that is globally recognized. Gun sales were previously listed as “general merchandise,” but the ISO is changing the code.

If you purchase a gun through a credit card, an international agency will document the purchase. Cash is still an option for now, but I expect it will become increasingly difficult to gain access to firearms – at least for those who plan to purchase them legally.

Visa is eager to participate. “Following ISO’s decision to establish a new merchant category code, Visa will proceed with next steps, while ensuring we protect all legal commerce on the Visa network in accordance with our long-standing rules,” they said in a statement. American Express said that they would work with a third-party processor (more people with access to your data) and will implement the code once the details are finalized. Mastercard said they will “turn our focus to how it will be implemented by merchants and their banks as we continue to support lawful purchases on our network while protecting the privacy and decisions of individual cardholders.”

Every credit company will comply. The National Rifle Association is pushing back, but the change is already underway. “The [industry’s] decision to create a firearm-specific code is nothing more than a capitulation to anti-gun politicians and activists bent on eroding the rights of law-abiding Americans one transaction at a time,” National Rifle Association spokesman Lars Dalseide stated to Fox Business.

As a reminder, criminals have access to guns. Joe Biden continually calls on Congress to ban assault weapons, but that is the beginning. Not so coincidentally, Joe Biden’s own family members illegally discarded a gun in a trash can outside a school, but that’s (D)ifferent. The Second Amendment is under fire, and the people must vote accordingly.

Sep 12 2022

Greece Rushes to Repay Debt as Rates Rise


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Sep 12, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

As the European Central Bank (ECB) finally begins to raise rates, Greece is rushing to repay its outstanding debt. The failure to consolidate eurozone debt hurt the southern nation, whose debt spiked due to simple currency conversion. Greece remains the most indebted country in the EU. The country received its third bailout in 2018 and has been struggling to pay off its debt, relying mostly on bonds.

Greece is making its next payout ahead of schedule, as it knows that the amount owed will only rise. Greece is set to repay 2.7 billion euros, according to the finance ministry. However, this is a small piece of what they owe as debts have more than tripled since the start of the year.

As the eurozone is facing an inevitable recession, Brussels is sure to hunt down its debts. Greece has been put in a lose-lose situation as its initial debt spiked after the drachma was converted to the euro. Greece’s debt to GDP has soared since joining the euro. The ratio is expected to reach 186.1% by the end of the year, which is slightly better than 2020 (206.3%) and 2021 (193.3%).

The entire EU Crisis began precisely on schedule on the political pi turning point from the major high in 2007. Precisely on the day of the ECM turning point, April 16, 2010 (2010.29), Greece notified the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it was on the verge of bankruptcy. The eurozone and IMF provided Greece with a 260 billion euro loan – a small price to pay to prevent the European economy from crashing. Greece repaid the IMF 28 billion between 2010 and 2014. More money was requested a few years later. Fast forward to 2022, and Greece needed an additional 7 billion euros through bond sales. They are simply trying to stay afloat.

Sep 11 2022

Is Russia Losing?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Sep 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Ukrainian army is at least one-third larger than it was last year and some claim it has doubled in size. They have been concentrating their effort, not on the Donbas, but on Ukraine’s Kharkov region. The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed that Russia has withdrawn its troops from multiple locations across Ukraine’s Kharkov region pulling back to the Donbas in the face of a major Ukrainian offensive in the area. The Ministry has actually stated: “In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.”

The troops that were stationed in the Kharkov area have been “re-deployed” over the past three days pulling back to the Donetsk People’s Republic. It also stated that during its withdrawal, the military had performed a “number of distracting and demonstration activities imitating the real action of troops.”  It did not elaborate. It was attacking the Ukrainians to allow the withdrawal with artillery, missile, and aircraft attacks to provide cover. They claimed that they destroyed over 100 armor pieces and artillery and eliminated “more than 2,000 Ukrainian and foreign fighters” in the past three days. The Ukrainian offensive was launched in the Kharkov Region on Thursday, but they were not as successful.

The real problem will emerge with the coming winter and is likely to be a very tough winter. While NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg keeps urging Ukraine to continue fighting against Russia, it puts out this urging saying that otherwise, the country may “cease to exist” as an independent nation. From the outset, Putin did not seek to conquer all of Ukraine. One must wonder if the West is not propagating this war claiming Ukraine will cease to exist unless it fights Russia. That certainly eliminates any settlement or a peace treaty. NATO needs war with Russia and Putin by now has to understand that his real enemy is NATO and the USA. The propaganda fueling this agenda can be seen in the words of Stoltenberg who told the AP:

“If President [Vladimir] Putin and Russia stop fighting, then we will have peace. If Ukraine stops fighting, then Ukraine will cease to exist as an independent nation.” 

Stoltenberg admitted that there has been “no sign” that Putin or Moscow is giving up its objectives in Ukraine. He keeps insisting that Russia’s ultimate goal in the conflict is “taking control of Ukraine.” He knows that is not true and perhaps is begging Putin to adopt that goal. If that were true, Putin should do as the USA did in Iraq – (1) take down the power grid, (2) take down the communications, (3) attack the water supply, and (4) attack the food supply.

“Winter’s coming” as they warned in Game of Thrones. Reuters has reported that the flows of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine were stable at the start of the week. Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany “remained shut and eastbound gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Poland from Germany continued at low levels.”

Beware of the feigned-retreat is a military tactic, whereby a military force pretends to withdraw to lure an enemy into a position of vulnerability. Ukraine is now concentrating its forces in Kharkov region. Putin cannot be stupid and with the approach of winter, he should cut off all the gas through Ukraine to Europe and do as Stoltenberg keeps saying. There are two options. Use Tactical nuclear weapons, also called nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are generally designed for battlefield use and have a shorter range than strategic, or long-range, nuclear weapons, which are designed to directly attack an adversary’s homeland.

Herodotus reported that the Ancient Spartans used the feigned-retreat tactic at the Battle of Thermopylae (480BC) to defeat a force of Persian Immortals. Socrates debated a general who said it was cowardly to retreat. Even during the Battle of Agrigentum, in Sicily (262BC) during the First Punic War. Then the Carthaginian general Hanno, son of Hannibal, sent in his cavalry to attack the Roman cavalry and then pulled a feign-retreat drawing the Romans right into the arms of the main Carthaginian army waiting patiently.

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements that were to provide the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state and to vote on their own separation since they were ethnically Russians. That agreement was brokered by Germany and France and was first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko then admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.” That is precisely what was done.

The problem now is that this appears to be an all-out war that the West keeps saying Russia is losing. I fear if that were true, then we will be looking at tactical nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine calling the bluff of Europe- Who will be next? Beware of next April and this coming January does not look very quiet on the Western front. The Pi Target from the fall of the USSR comes on April 6th, 2023. The West keeps telling the Ukrainians that Russia is losing and that the overthrow of Putin will bring peace. I fear this is just total propaganda dor the people behind Putin are far worse and think he has been too soft on Ukraine.