Posted originally on Jun 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
There is no better predictor of future warfare than capital flows. We have witnessed capital fleeing danger time and time again, nearly always indicating a significant event was underway before the headlines could capture the moment. The internet is buzzing with a new tongue-in-cheek predictor of US warfare—the pizza index.
The pizza index or pizza meter theorizes that there is an uptick in pizza orders from Washington D.C., namely near the Pentagon, during major crises. America maintains it had no involvement in Israel’s attack on Iran. On June 12, social media users began reporting that the Pentagon pizza index was rising as there was a surge in deliveries surrounding the Pentagon and other defense buildings. At least four pizzerias reported a surge in orders one hour before the first strike.
With about an hour left before close, the 2nd closest Dominos to the Pentagon (about 8 min drive) is experiencing EXTREMELY high levels of traffic compared to a normal Thursday at about 11:00pm ET. pic.twitter.com/TnItUDysyq
— Pentagon Pizza Report (@PenPizzaReport) June 13, 2025
The Soviet Union was the first to develop this theory, which they called, Pizzint, during the Cold War. Soviet intelligence began tracking pizza orders near the Pentagon and CIA headquarters with intense scrutiny. The Soviets were known for thinking outside the box and developing unconventional strategies for warfare that were often dismissed by other nations. The Soviets believed that a sudden spike in deliveries indicated officials were working extended hours, and Americans’ love for pizza became their tell.
The phenomenon does carry some accuracy. Prior to the Gulf War in 1990, a Domino’s franchise owner by the name of Frank Meeks reported that he received a massive uptick in orders for pizza to the Pentagon and CIA headquarters. Other pizzerias noted a similar pattern, especially on the night that led to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. Nighttime pizza orders rose from 3 to 101 per night in the week leading up to hostilities. The night before the battle began, pizza orders to US intelligence offices surpassed 300.
The same phenomenon occurred numerous times, such as the night before US interventions in Grenada (1983) and Panama (1989). The meter proved accurate for other significant political events, such as the impeachment hearings for President Bill Clinton in 1998.
With less than an hour to close, the Domino's nearest the Pentagon is experiencing abnormally high traffic. pic.twitter.com/RZ5r5EJc1V
— Pentagon Pizza Report (@PenPizzaReport) June 2, 2025
Socrates noted that June 1 would lead to a significant global event. Sorry, we do not have pizza tracking in our algorithm. Interestingly, an X account called Pentagon Pizza Report noted that the Domino’s closest to the Pentagon was experiencing abnormally high traffic that day, which coincided with Ukraine’s massive attack on Russia.
Officials are required to work late, tethered to their desks. An uptick in pizza orders before important events is quite an interesting theory and there are now hundreds of social media accounts dedicated to tracking pizza deliveries in the D.C. area. Perhaps intelligence officials should begin ordering takeout elsewhere.
Posted originally on Jun 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I attended your 2011 conference in Philadelphia. I was dragged there by a friend. You mentioned the war cycle resurfacing in 2014, and I didn’t believe it. I have read your criticism of Ukraine, and now Israel has not been trying to get Trump to attack Iran. You are correct, Zelensky is trying to get NATO to strike Russia first, claiming they are planning to invade the Baltic using a military drill in Belarus. Between the Neocons, Zelensky, and now Israel, all trying to get the US into war, any doubt I had about your models was ill-founded. You have paid with years of your life trying to help society. As is often said, no good deed goes unpunished.
You have demonstrated that there is a cycle to everything. I was told you are not married because you never found your companion, like Milton Friedman, whom you envied, is what I heard. Perhaps you will one day find that person who understands and appreciates your calling in life.
Thank you for your courage and endurance.
WP
ANSWER: Thank you for the cartoon of Milton and Rose. Milton had a very special relationship with Rose, who, by the way, was born in Ukraine when it was the Russian Empire before the USSR. They met in school and had the same interests – economics. I seriously doubt I would ever find such a person; it’s getting too late in life anyway.
I believe that Zelensky is such a piece of shit, he is beyond description. He is a traitor to Ukraine for he was pretending to be Christian and was a NeoNazi. He became Jewish ONLY after he became president to hide the fact that he was a NeoNazi.
The New York Times even published this piece about Ukrainian Nazis how they killed here a Jewish mother holding the hand of her child. They killed her, but threw the child in the grave because they did not waste bullets on children. They cut the babies out of pregnant women and sewed a live cat into the womb. What the Ukrainians were doing even horrified the German Nazis. the CIA protected the Ukrainian Nazis only because they hated Russians as well. That is where we are today with the press cheering every blow against Russia and refusing to look at the facts.
The Ukrainisn NeoNazi’s hated anyone who was NOT Ukrainian. They carried out genocide against Poles, Hungarians, and Russians as well as Jews. Like George Soros who pretend to be Christian to also hide from the Nazis, Zelensky was the same.
Here is Zelensky before becoming president, joking about confiscating the assets of Jews and Russians. He became a Jew only to hide his past.
Biden’s Neocons were all Ukrainian Jews claiming that their families were persecuted by Russians. So all three supported Ukrainian NeoNazis all because they hated Russins. Garland brought all sorts of charges against Trump, trying to prevent him from taking office because he was anti-war.
This ethnic hatred produced World War I when a Serbian assassinated the heir to the throne of Austria. This hatred will bring us into World War III. The hatred is surfacing everywhere. I do not see a way out – sorry.
Posted originally on CTH on June 9, 2025 | Sundance
Tucker Carlson traveled to France in order to interview Telegram Founder and CEO Pavel Durov who remains in French detention as he awaits the judicial system to release him. Telegram is used as a messaging ap by over a billion users worldwide. Pavel Durov was accused of noncompliance with EU judicial demands and arrested during a holiday last year. He remains under quasi-detention confinement.
Many people have increasingly expressed annoyance at the change in Tucker Carlson’s interview style. The increased interruptions, wandering rambling that takes the point off subject, inappropriate -borderline annoying- laughter at the wrong moments, and increasing Hannityesque behavior has been a sidebar topic of conversation. However, this is the first interview in which I can say these distracting interview traits have become unbearable.
I really wanted to hear from Durov, but I could not survive the inappropriate timing of the interruptions, and increasingly odd mannerisms from Mr Carlson. From a mental strength, stability and intellectual perspective, Carlson is way over his head trying to interview Durov. Perhaps that explains the performative and seemingly odd behavior of Tucker in this interview. It gets worse as it progresses. See for yourself. WATCH:
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Pavel Durov is a very deliberate man with an exceptionally stable disposition. He is one of the most important people in the world of information, communication and the free exchange of ideas. Yeah, I’m a little frustrated with this missed opportunity to go into important considerations in the world of information sharing.
Chapters: 0:00 Being Arrested in France 10:57 France’s Attempt to Humiliate and Tarnish Durov 15:54 Did the Russian Government Ever Try to Arrest Durov? 17:21 How Telegram Makes Money 20:04 Are They Attacking Durov Because He’s Russian? 21:19 Did Anyone Defend Durov? 24:23 What Did Durov Do in Jail? 25:17 Is Durov Allowed to Leave France? 30:37 The Real Reason They’re Attacking Durov 31:56 Europe’s Mission to Make Privacy Illegal 39:20 France’s Confiscation of Durov’s Phone 40:47 The Investigation Into Durov 56:52 How Telegram Stays Neutral in Global Politics 58:44 The Advancements of Encryption Technology 1:00:47 Is There Anything That Can Prevent a Government From Spying on You? 1:02:42 The Importance of Disconnecting 1:04:40 Durov’s Thoughts on Ross Ulbricht 1:06:54 Will Durov Stay in France After the Investigation?
Posted originally on Jun 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Holding a 400 oz Gold Bar – Central Bank Standard
QUESTION: Hello Martin – Here in Canada, we have a vexing question – why no Gold Reserves at BofC? USA has a date with destiny aka Ft Knox Audit that Trump and Bessent seemed engaged on this file but are preoccupied lately with a litany of distractions, I’m 74 with health issues surfacing, which rearrange one’s priorities – many millions of Boomers in same boat – but that’s the price you knew was coming
jw
ANSWER: Canada’s lack of significant gold reserves is the result of a deliberate policy decision spanning several decades, primarily driven by the following reasons:
Opportunity Cost: Gold pays no interest or dividends. The Bank of Canada (BoC) decided it could achieve better returns by holding interest-bearing assets like foreign government bonds (US Treasuries, German Bunds, etc.) and deposits.
The Shift to More Liquid Assets: The BoC prioritized holding foreign exchange reserves (primarily US dollars, euros, yen, etc.), which are highly liquid and easily used for direct intervention in currency markets to stabilize the Canadian dollar (CAD).
Canada began the process of gradually selling off its gold in the 1980s, when gold rallied to $875 on January 21, 1980, and then began a 19-year decline to $250. Canada significantly accelerated its gold sales during the 1990s and early 2000s under the leadership of Finance Minister Paul Martin and Governor Gordon Thiessen, aiming to optimize reserve asset management. By 2016, Canada sold its last significant holdings. As of today, Canada’s official gold reserves are reported as zero tonnes (or negligible amounts – e.g., 77 ounces reported in 2022, worth a trivial sum relative to total reserves). In essence, Canada decided that the costs and lack of yield associated with holding large gold reserves outweighed the traditional benefits. They opted instead to hold foreign currencies and bonds that are easier to use for market intervention and generate income, relying on the strength of the Canadian economy itself to support the value of its currency.
Gordon Brown, as Labour Chancellor of the Exchequer (1997-2007), authorized the sale of a very significant portion (roughly half) of the UK’s gold reserves. He was a member of the Labour Party, which viewed gold as a rich man’s toy. He sold approximately 395 tonnes of gold. The sales took place between July 1999 and March 2002. This represented about 58% of the UK’s total gold reserves at the time (which were around 715 tonnes before the sales). After the sales, the UK’s reserves stood at about 310 tonnes, where they remain today. The sales occurred during a period when the gold price was near a 20-year low, averaging around $275 per ounce. Shortly after the sales concluded, the gold price began a historic bull run, rising dramatically over the next decade to peak over $1,900 per ounce in 2011. This timing led to massive criticism that the UK sold at the absolute bottom of the market, potentially losing billions of pounds in potential value. The period is often referred to as the “Brown Bottom” in financial circles. Brown was ignorant of how markets function. He announced in advance the strategy to sell its gold reserves, so the market held back, anticipating a greater supply. The proceeds were invested in foreign currency and government bonds. While these assets generated interest income, the capital appreciation of gold vastly outstripped the returns on those bonds over the following years.
The head of the Bank of Canada during the main phase of Canada’s gold reserve sell-off (mid-to-late 1990s) was Gordon Thiessen (born 1938). He served as Governor from February 1, 1994, to January 31, 2001. Thiessen spent his entire career within the Bank of Canada, joining in 1963. However, it was his predecessor, John Crow (1987-1994), who began reducing its gold reserves significantly in the 1980s. While the Bank of Canada managed the sales operationally, the ultimate decision to sell the gold rested with the Government of Canada (specifically, the Minister of Finance and the Department of Finance). The Bank acted as the government’s agent in this matter.
Posted originally on Jun 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Marty, I have been with you since 1987. I have watched your Economic Confidence Model blow everyone out of the water, and your critics are just idiots who are either genuinely just stupid or they are paid by the “club” to try to prevent people from listening to you. Anyone who criticizes you is not trustworthy. The world should take notice of what you discovered. I saw your ECM predict the 1987 crash to the day. The Japanese Crash. The 1998 July 20th high in the markets. The 2002 low. There are so many events on the exact day that there can be no dispute that this is not your opinion, yet people try to ignore you, and others hate you. Now, May 15th was the exact day for the peach talks, and June 2nd was Russia’s Pearl Harbor. Everyone should send letters demanding that you get the Nobel Peace Prize for humanity’s sake.
L
REPLY: I understand what you are saying. Yes, I can see that a Nobel Prize might help focus attention on the reality of cycles. However, the Economic Confidence Model is something I bumped into, and I had assumed it would be an average. Never in my wildest imagination did I ever expect that such a model would work precisely to the day for countless geopolitical events, like 911, to the very day, and the same exact frequency picks the events here in May to June 2025.
I just do not know. Do I deserve a Nobel Prize for something I myself cannot entirely explain that exists when all the conventional thinking says that it can’t be? I am working diligently on my next book, the Economic Confidence Model. Perhaps then let the world judge. How many coincidences does it take to prove there is a hidden order lurking behind the appearance of random chaos?
Posted originally on CTH on May 29, 2025 | Sundance
The current Canadian Prime Minister is genuinely a walking meme of a Canadian Prime Minister parody.
During his remarks to parliament today, Prime Minister Carney waxed gleefully about the U.S. federal trade court ruling against President Trump’s tariffs, just moments before the federal appeals court stayed the opinion of the lower court. It’s a little funny.
PM Carney doesn’t seem to recognize the reality of the economic landscape before him. He complains about blocked access to the U.S. consumer base with a level of entitlement that’s genuinely humorous. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy around him is collapsing. WATCH:
♦ BACKGROUND – Following the 2024 presidential election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Mar-a-Lago and said if President Trump was to make the Canadian government face reciprocal tariffs, open the USMCA trade agreements to force reciprocity, and/or balance economic relations on non-tariff issues, then Canada would collapse upon itself economically and cease to exist. In essence, in addition to the NATO defense shortfall, Canada cannot survive as a free and independent north American nation, without receiving all the one-way benefits from the U.S. economy.
To wit, President Trump then said, if Canada cannot survive in a balanced rules environment, including putting together their own military and defenses and meeting their NATO obligations, then Canada should become the 51st U.S state. It was following this meeting that President Trump started emphasizing this point and shocking everyone in the process. However, in the emotional reaction to Trump’s statements, no-one looked at the core issues outlined by Trudeau that framed President Trump’s opinion.
Representing Canada, Justin Trudeau was not expressing an unwillingness to comply with fairness and reciprocity in trade with the USA, what Trudeau was expressing was an inability to comply.
Quite simply, after decades of shifting priorities, Canada no longer has the internal economic capability to comply with a fair-trade agreement (FTA). Trudeau was not lying, and President Trump understood the argument; hence his 51st state remarks.
This is where it becomes important to understand the core reason why Trump, Ross and Lighthizer (2017) did not structurally want to replace the NAFTA agreement with another trilateral trade deal. Mexico and Canada are completely different as it pertains to trade with the USA. President Trump would rather have two separate bilateral agreements; one for Mexico and one for Canada.
♦ Firstly, Canada is a NATO partner, Mexico is not. As President Trump affirmed to Justin Trudeau during the meeting, it would be unfair of President Trump to discuss NATO funding with the European Union, while Canada is one of the worst offenders. Trump is leveraging favorable trade terms and tariff relief with the EU member states, as a carrot to get them into compliance with the 2.0 to 2.5% spending requirement for their military.
If the NATO member states contribute more to their own defense, the U.S. can pull back spending and save Americans money. However, Canada is currently 26th in NATO funding, spending only 1.37% of their GDP on defense (link).
Canada would have to spend at least another $15 billion/yr on their defense programs in order to reach 2.0%. Justin Trudeau told President Trump that was an impossible goal given the nature of the Canadian political system, and the current size of their economy ($2.25 trillion).
♦ Secondly, over the last 40 years Canada has deindustrialized their economy, Mexico has not. As the progressive political ideology of their politicians took control of Canada policy, the ‘climate change’ agenda and ‘green’ economy became their focus. The dirty industrialized systems were not compliant with the goals of the Canadian policy makers.
The dirty mining sector (coal, coking coal, ore) no longer exists at scale to support self-sufficient manufacturing. The dirty oil refineries do not exist to refine the crude oil they extract. Large industrial heavy industry no longer exists at a scale needed to be self-sufficient. Instead, Canada purchases forged and rolled steel component parts from overseas (mostly China). Making the issue more challenging, Canada doesn’t even have enough people skilled to do the dirty jobs within the heavy manufacturing; they would need a national apprenticeship program. Again, all points raised by Trudeau to explain why bilateral trade compliance was impossible.
♦ Thirdly, the trade between Canada/U. S and Mexico/U. S is entirely different. The main imports from Canada are energy, lumber and raw materials. The main imports from Mexico are agriculture, cars and finished industrial goods. Mexico refines its own oil; Canada ships their oil to the USA for refining. There are obviously some similar products from Mexico and Canada, but for the most part there is a big difference.
♦ Forth, USA banks are allowed to operate in Mexico, but USA banks are not allowed to operate in Canada. USA media organizations are allowed to broadcast in Mexico, but USA media organizations are regulated and not permitted to broadcast in Canada. The Canadian government has strong regulations and restrictions on information and Intellectual Property.
All of these points of difference highlight why a trilateral trade agreement like NAFTA and the USMCA just don’t work out for the USA.
Additionally, if President Trump levies a tariff on Chinese imports, it hits Canada much harder than Mexico because Canada has deindustrialized and now imports from China to assemble into finished goods destined to the USA. In a very direct way Canada is a passthrough for Chinese products. Canada is now more of an assembly economy, not a dirty job manufacturing economy.
When Trudeau outlines the inability of Canada to agree to trade terms, simply because his country no longer has the capability of adhering to those trade terms, a frustrated President Trump says, “then become a state.”
There is no option to remain taking advantage of the USA on this level, and things are only getting worse. Thus, the point of irreconcilable conflict is identified.
Because the Canadian government became so dependent on their role as an assembly economy, they enmeshed with China in a way that made them dependent. The political issues of Chinese influence within Canada are a direct result of this dynamic. In fact, China was the big winner from the outcome of the recent election because all of their investments into Canada are grounded on retaining Liberal government dependency.
If Trump targets China with punitive tariffs, the Canadian economy will be collaterally damaged. Canada will end up paying a tariff rate because they use cheap Chinese component parts in their finished goods. Canada has structurally designed their economy to do this over multiple years.
Understanding the unique nature of the Canadian economic conundrum, the only way to address the issue is to break out the USMCA into two separate bilateral trade agreements. One set of trade terms for Mexico that leverages border security, and one set of trade terms for Canada that leverages NATO security and border security. The only substantive similarity between them will be in the auto and agriculture sector.
If you think the multinational corporations, political leftists and UniParty Republicans in the USA are strongly opposing Trump now, just wait until later this year when the Trump administration proposes the elimination of the trilateral North American trade agreement, USMCA.
According to the World Bank, the USA economy is $27.3 trillion. Canada is $2.1 trillion.
Do the math!
[…] The expectation, according to two people close to the White House, is that negotiations to permanently remove the threat of painful 25 percent tariffs on Canada — which Trump mostly rolled back earlier this month — and other sector-specific tariffs are likely to be folded into the upcoming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. That review is due in 2026, but the Trump administration wants to accelerate to this calendar year.
“It makes sense to separate out Canada and Mexico from the rest because they are going to want to redo the USMCA,” said one of the people close to the White House, who were granted anonymity to discuss ongoing deliberations. “They’re going to have separate tariffs that focus specifically on Mexico and Canada, and they’re going to take some actions to squeeze them a little bit.” [LINK]
Posted originally on May 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Mark Carney’s call for aligning with the EU in a war against Russia reveals more about his ideological alignment than any strategic necessity. As a former central banker turned World Economic Forum alumnus, Carney has long abandoned the notion of free markets in favor of globalist control. He is keen to support the EU’s Marxist-style top-down approach, which has economically gutted Europe and driven capital flight, and is extremely eager to distance Canada from the United States in every possible way.
“Seventy-five cents of every dollar of capital spending for defence goes to the United States. That’s not smart,” Carney stated about his nation’s former top ally. He does not want the United States to remain the world’s superpower, per WEF protocol, as this sentiment was felt long before Trump. Carney would like to spend at least $1.25 trillion on defense over the next five years. “We’re making great progress on that, and by Canada Day, we’d like to see something concrete there,” Carney said, noting that Canada will be penning a deal with the European Union in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, US President Trump has offered Canada protection under his proposed “golden dome.” As he continues to pressure Canada to become a state, Canada runs further into the arms of the EU. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is also keen to find a way to support his plans for war without the support of the United States. Rutte is expected to ask the 32-member alliance to up current spending to around 3.5% of GDP.
Canada currently spends 1.37% of its GDP on defense, below the current 2% NATO target. Carney believes Canada can meet NATO standards by 2030, but NATO is increasingly requesting more. “We are going to have to spend more, sooner,” the prime minister said. “That’s one of the reasons why we will have a fall budget, not a budget tomorrow, because we’re part of deeper discussions on the defence side.”
Canada has already stationed troops in the Arctic on a near-permanent basis. Operation Nanook in the Far North has expanded as Canada attempts to secure its place in the Arctic region. Canada and Greenland are both in strong opposition of the current US administration as Trump continues to pressure both to abandon sovereignty. But the true nature of Arctic operations is to intimidate Russia.
“We want to be in the Arctic on a near permanent basis,” Lt.-Gen. Steve Boivin stated. “The current approach to Operation Nanook puts us in the Arctic for five to six months a year. We’re looking at being there 10 plus months per year.” The federal government has already spent an additional C$420 million on the operation.
In a way, Trump is receiving everything he once requester,d from increased NATO spending to forcing nations to defend their own lands without the support of the US. On the other hand, nations are now eager to begin offloading their increased defense budgets outside the US. The capital expended on war would funnel back into the US. NATO was not entirely a charity case for the US as it did receive those funds recycled back into the US economy.
It is clear that Carney is eager to join the alliance of nations taking their arms up against Russia. Russia poses no threat to Canada. Carney’s eagerness to join EU efforts has nothing to do with Ukraine and everything to do with consolidating power by forcing the West into a global war.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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