Tag Archives: Cycle of war

Jun 30 2025

The Plot Against the ECM


Posted originally on Jun 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Teaching ECM

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, why is it that the press and academia are not beating down your doors when you are the only one who had forecasted a recession into 2028 years in advance? I can only assume that this is a deliberate conspiracy to prevent others from understanding that the world economy is not random and, as you say, it’s all a confidence game. Do you think this is a conspiracy against you, aimed at preventing you from educating society?

HL

ANSWER: Yes, it is a conspiracy insofar as they do not want people to see that the economy is ordered and not random chaos. Here is Larry Summers saying that if you could forecast the future, then it would be self-fulfilling, which is how they view me. I even had the Commodity Futures Trading Commission file a complaint against me, demanding that I turn over a list of all my clients. They told the court that I was manipulating the world economy, and if I turned over my client list, they could prove it. My lawyer asked the court where the statute was that said I could not manipulate the entire world right down to his salary. He agreed, laughed, and denied them their crazy subpoena.

What’s at stake here? You vote for a politician who promises to solve a problem that they cannot. Democrats cannot blame Trump’s tariffs if the economy is turning down with or without his tariff war. WE are headed into war as the computer forecast because these people are on the verge of collapse. They need war as a decoy to blame Putin, just as Biden blamed Putin for the rise in gasoline prices when it was Biden who imposed the sanctions, not Putin. They MUST go to war for  72 years of borrowing with no intention of paying anything back, is now bringing the entire financial system to a grinding halt. The people in Europe will be storming the Parliaments with pitchforks, for they have ordered that, on average, 70% of pension funds must hold “safe” government debt. A sovereign default wipes out private pensions.

Influence

I put out the ECM, and it forecasted a peak in May 2024, from which we would turn down into a recession that would not bottom until 2028. This is not my opinion so it cannot be my influence. Those against me claim I am too influential, and that is why the forecasts are correct. Otherwise, they have to admit everything from Politics to Keynesian Economics is wrong. It cannot be that they are wrong; it must be that I am the problem. Human Nature has a very dark side, and I’m tired of being their target practice.

Volcker Rediscovery
Volcker Rediscovery
Burns Arthur

I had a good conversation with Paul back in 1999. He told me I was correct. The business cycle was about 8 years. Even the previous Fed Chairman, Arthur Burns, who presided over the collapse of Bretton Woods, concluded that the Business Cycle always wins. They have done everything they can to shut me up. I even survived the orchestrated attempt to assassinate me. I woke up from that coma to their dismay, and sometimes I wish I had not.

Order v Chaos

The entire sales pitch behind socialism is that you need government because ONLY they can bring ORDER to the CHAOS of randomness. As I have said, in physics class, they stated that nothing is random, and in economics class, they claimed that everything is random, so the government can manipulate society to eliminate recessions and depressions. But if the ECM is correct, then the BS they espouse cannot be accurate.

Einsteing dice
Jun 30 2025

Canadian Government Rescinds Digital Services Tax, Requests to Resume Trade Talks Again


Posted originally on CTH on June 29, 2025 | Sundance 

“Elbows up” and knees bent. As expected given the nature of their dependency, the Canadian government has rescinded the digital services tax against U.S. tech companies.

The June 30th collection is halted and the Canadian government led by Mark Carney will be bringing legislation to rescind the tax entirely.

CANADA – […] Minister of Finance and National Revenue, the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, announced today that Canada would rescind the Digital Services Tax (DST) in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States. Consistent with this action, Prime Minister Carney and President Trump have agreed that parties will resume negotiations with a view towards agreeing on a deal by July 21, 2025.

The DST was announced in 2020 to address the fact that many large technology companies operating in Canada may not otherwise pay tax on revenues generated from Canadians. Canada’s preference has always been a multilateral agreement related to digital services taxation. While Canada was working with international partners, including the United States, on a multilateral agreement that would replace national digital services taxes, the DST was enacted to address the aforementioned taxation gap.

The June 30, 2025 collection will be halted, and Minister Champagne will soon bring forward legislation to rescind the Digital Services Tax Act. (LINK)

In the bigger picture Canada has a serious problem.

Canada is entirely dependent on the USA; there is no part of the Canadian economic system that can survive without total dependence on the USA.  The Canadian economy is currently stagnant and their leftist government is desperate to find a way to collect revenue somehow, any way possible.   Additionally, President Trump is going to end the USMCA trade agreement and shut down a majority of the benefits Canada has been extracting.

The most remarkable aspect to this reality is the denial within Canada.  There are maybe a handful of honest Canadian economists, financial types and/or pundits who understand economic matters that are willing to outline and explain the details of Canada’s vulnerability…..

…. The rest are in denial, shouting ‘elbows up’ as if that is going to change the inevitable.  The pretending is strong amid the snow Mexicans. Their denial is a mass formation psychosis. Stunningly so.

[Background Context]

Jun 29 2025

A Note of Caution – Kevin O’Leary Talks About U.S-Canada Trade With a Massive Blind Spot


Posted originally on CTH on June 28, 2025 | Sundance 

CTH has continually said that almost no one in Canada has any grasp of what is about to happen within their economy, specifically because only a handful of people realize what President Trump intends to do.

This interview with Kevin O’Leary is a case study in what I have been warning about.  If you have any financial affiliation with O’Leary Ventures or ancillary investments that touch on a dependency therein, be forewarned.

O’Leary is only a few months away from exploding against President Trump in a manner that will make the Elon Musk statements about Epstein and Trump seem small by comparison.  As yet another Canadian financial voice that just doesn’t get it, O’Leary has no idea the USMCA is about to end. And when it does, oh boy… he will go bananas.

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[BACKGOUND STORY]

Jun 26 2025

World Economic Forum Aims to Repair Relations with Schwab


Posted originally on Jun 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Schwab Klaus World Reset

World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab stepped down from his chairman position at the organization on April 20, 2025, amid accusations of fraud. Our computer had forecast that the WEF would enter a declining trend with the 2024 ECM turning point. This staged coup happened about 37 years after the first Davos meeting (8.6 x 4.3). From our model’s perspective, this was right on time. Now, Schwab and the WEF are working to repair ties.

An anonymous whistleblower claimed that Klaus Schwab and his wife collaborated with USAID to steal tens of millions in funding. The whistleblower has always been anonymous, and it remains very suspicious that the very organization he created would turn on him after receiving an anonymous letter that they admitted may not have been credible. Something like this would never be acceptable in any court of law, especially if it’s anonymous. It would be the worst or the worst hearsay, where you cannot even point to who made the allegation.

Back in April, the WEF said its board unanimously supported the decision to initiate an independent investigation “following a whistleblower letter containing allegations against former Chairman Klaus Schwab. This decision was made after consultation with external legal counsel.”

Now, the WEF is attempting to repair its relationship with its founder ahead of the next Davos meeting. Bloomberg reported that the WEF would like to “normalize their relationship [with Klaus Schwab] in order to safeguard the forum and the legacy of the founder.”

Peter Brabeck-Letmathe has replaced Schwab for the time being, but is less of a commanding force. Schwab’s sudden departure has caused instability in the organization and its ongoing mission. Board members are concerned that support for the organization will begin to decline as this situation remains unresolved.

Davos is the Problem

The World Economic Forum’s annual revenue in 2024 was 440 million francs ($543 million), with the majority of proceeds coming from member companies and fees. Yet, the number of people registered to attend the 2025 Davos event is on par if not slightly exceeding the number of participants from the year prior.

WEF Schwab You Will Own Nothing

Schwab’s departure has damaged the Davos brand. There is a possibility that the organization is attempted to rebrand after Agenda 2030 failed. The WEF attempted to move away from its zero tolerance stance on ESG initiatives after they became widely unpopular among the big industry players and shifting governments. The brand has attempted to integrate the importance of digital transformation and AI to remain relevant as the tech gurus grow in power and popularity. Those who are familiar with Klaus Schwab know the phrase, “You will own nothing and be happy.” These words have been widely unpopular and caused a type of sinister chaos to surround the brand that was once respected as the high-brow institution of globalist elites.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde was slated to replace Schwab in 2027 when her term ends, and all reports claimed that he was prepared to remain in the chairman role for an additional two years to ensure Lagarde could take his place. What changed seemingly overnight that would cause the organization to discard Schwab before he was due to retire?

Schwab denies any misconduct and filed lawsuits against the whistleblowers, calling the accusations “calumnious” and “unfounded.” He believes “character assassination” was the premise of the claims.

WEC 2020 Arm v Schwab

I am no fan of Klaus Schwab, as everyone knows. I disagree with his theories from start to finish. Nevertheless, something doesn’t smell right here. This appears to be an internal coup, perhaps to distract attention from the question of alleged funds for the WEF from USAID, or to try to salvage the failed Agenda 2030. Perhaps they will claim that no misconduct had occurred since DOGE did not raise concerns or there is a possibility that those behind the internal coup are concerned that Schwab’s counter lawsuit could uncover new corruption. The investigation into Schwab has not concluded, but after only three months, the WEF would like to wrap it up. It appears that the WEF does not want to welcome Schwab back; rather, they would like to ensure an amicable resolution to maintain both the brand’s reputation as well as the founder’s.

Jun 25 2025

The Hidden Order We Cannot See


Posted originally on Jun 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

CRUDE W Array 4 14 25

COMMENT: Marty, you have shown that capital flows shift, and the computer has been able to predict wars by monitoring the entire world. The forecasts on Crude were unprecedented. I just had to remark how your computer handled this entire 12-day war and its cyclical forecast with your arrays. It is so apparent why so many want to know what Socrates is projecting. What you say that you stumbled on this unintentionally still deserves more than a Nobel Prize. While people sensationalize stories to get clicks, only Socrates handled this event correctly without fanfare.

Thank you for the education.

BB

CRUDE W Tech 6 23 25

REPLY: Yes, the Crude market did illustrate that the economics and markets were not matching the sensationalized reports. The May 5th turning point picked the low, then three Directional Changes created the sideways consolidation for three weeks. The Panic Cycle, the week of June 9th, targeted the breakout and the June 13th Israel attack of the three key Iranian nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow – and a number of top scientists involved in nuclear research and development to decapitate the government. It did not show a continued trend.

Quantum_Mechanics Cycles

This is the opening to one chapter. I am trying to finish the book on the Economic Confidence Model and the Geometry of Time. There is a specific order hidden behind the veil of randomness, and our most significant problem in history is that we conduct analysis using the Classical Physics approach of linear analysis, which reduces everything to a single cause and effect. That prevents us from seeing that the world around us functions within a three-dimensional world, and TIME is not a single dimension. Therein lies our most significant error. Our inability to see what dictates the world of Quantum Physics, which unfolds before our eyes, also applies to the world of Classical Physics, causing us to believe in randomness and chaos rather than a hidden order.

Order v Chaos
Jun 21 2025

Luddite Cowboys and Transhuman Indians — Joe Allen interviews Payal Arora at World Summit AI


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: June 20, 2025, at 8:00 pm EST

Jun 19 2025

Sam Faddis: “We Can’t Be In The Position Of Having A Foreign Country Telling Us What Has To Be Done”


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: June 18, 2025, at 1:30 pm EST

Jun 16 2025

The Pizza Index


Posted originally on Jun 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Dominos_pizza.svg_

There is no better predictor of future warfare than capital flows. We have witnessed capital fleeing danger time and time again, nearly always indicating a significant event was underway before the headlines could capture the moment. The internet is buzzing with a new tongue-in-cheek predictor of US warfare—the pizza index.

The pizza index or pizza meter theorizes that there is an uptick in pizza orders from Washington D.C., namely near the Pentagon, during major crises. America maintains it had no involvement in Israel’s attack on Iran. On June 12, social media users began reporting that the Pentagon pizza index was rising as there was a surge in deliveries surrounding the Pentagon and other defense buildings. At least four pizzerias reported a surge in orders one hour before the first strike.

The Soviet Union was the first to develop this theory, which they called, Pizzint, during the Cold War. Soviet intelligence began tracking pizza orders near the Pentagon and CIA headquarters with intense scrutiny. The Soviets were known for thinking outside the box and developing unconventional strategies for warfare that were often dismissed by other nations. The Soviets believed that a sudden spike in deliveries indicated officials were working extended hours, and Americans’ love for pizza became their tell.

The phenomenon does carry some accuracy. Prior to the Gulf War in 1990, a Domino’s franchise owner by the name of Frank Meeks reported that he received a massive uptick in orders for pizza to the Pentagon and CIA headquarters. Other pizzerias noted a similar pattern, especially on the night that led to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. Nighttime pizza orders rose from 3 to 101 per night in the week leading up to hostilities. The night before the battle began, pizza orders to US intelligence offices surpassed 300.

The same phenomenon occurred numerous times, such as the night before US interventions in Grenada (1983) and Panama (1989). The meter proved accurate for other significant political events, such as the impeachment hearings for President Bill Clinton in 1998.

Socrates noted that June 1 would lead to a significant global event. Sorry, we do not have pizza tracking in our algorithm. Interestingly, an X account called Pentagon Pizza Report noted that the Domino’s closest to the Pentagon was experiencing abnormally high traffic that day, which coincided with Ukraine’s massive attack on Russia.

Officials are required to work late, tethered to their desks. An uptick in pizza orders before important events is quite an interesting theory and there are now hundreds of social media accounts dedicated to tracking pizza deliveries in the D.C. area. Perhaps intelligence officials should begin ordering takeout elsewhere.

Jun 16 2025

War & Cycles


Posted originally on Jun 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

MA War Cycle 2011 WEC

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I attended your 2011 conference in Philadelphia. I was dragged there by a friend. You mentioned the war cycle resurfacing in 2014, and I didn’t believe it. I have read your criticism of Ukraine, and now Israel has not been trying to get Trump to attack Iran. You are correct, Zelensky is trying to get NATO to strike Russia first, claiming they are planning to invade the Baltic using a military drill in Belarus. Between the Neocons, Zelensky, and now Israel, all trying to get the US into war, any doubt I had about your models was ill-founded. You have paid with years of your life trying to help society. As is often said, no good deed goes unpunished.

friedman milton and rose

You have demonstrated that there is a cycle to everything. I was told you are not married because you never found your companion, like Milton Friedman, whom you envied, is what I heard. Perhaps you will one day find that person who understands and appreciates your calling in life.

Thank you for your courage and endurance.

WP

friedman Milton rose 2

ANSWER: Thank you for the cartoon of Milton and Rose. Milton had a very special relationship with Rose, who, by the way, was born in Ukraine when it was the Russian Empire before the USSR. They met in school and had the same interests – economics. I seriously doubt I would ever find such a person; it’s getting too late in life anyway.

2025_06_15_11_23_25_Zelenskyy_Russia_is_preparing_something_in_Belarus_under_guise_of_military_dril

I believe that Zelensky is such a piece of shit, he is beyond description. He is a traitor to Ukraine for he was pretending to be Christian and was a NeoNazi. He became Jewish ONLY after he became president to hide the fact that he was a NeoNazi.

Ukraine genoice jew nazi

The New York Times even published this piece about Ukrainian Nazis how they killed here a Jewish mother holding the hand of her child. They killed her, but threw the child in the grave because they did not waste bullets on children. They cut the babies out of pregnant women and sewed a live cat into the womb. What the Ukrainians were doing even horrified the German Nazis. the CIA protected the Ukrainian Nazis only because they hated Russians as well. That is where we are today with the press cheering every blow against Russia and refusing to look at the facts.

The Ukrainisn NeoNazi’s hated anyone who was NOT Ukrainian. They carried out genocide against Poles, Hungarians, and Russians as well as Jews. Like George Soros who pretend to be Christian to also hide from the Nazis, Zelensky was the same.

Here is Zelensky before becoming president, joking about confiscating the assets of Jews and Russians. He became a Jew only to hide his past.

Bidens Neocons

Biden’s Neocons were all Ukrainian Jews claiming that their families were persecuted by Russians. So all three supported Ukrainian NeoNazis all because they hated Russins.  Garland brought all sorts of charges against Trump, trying to prevent him from taking office because he was anti-war.

This ethnic hatred produced World War I when a Serbian assassinated the heir to the throne of Austria. This hatred will bring us into World War III. The hatred is surfacing everywhere. I do not see a way out – sorry.

Jun 10 2025

Tucker Carlson Interviews Telegram Founder Pavel Durov During Ongoing Confinement in France


Posted originally on CTH on June 9, 2025 | Sundance

Tucker Carlson traveled to France in order to interview Telegram Founder and CEO Pavel Durov who remains in French detention as he awaits the judicial system to release him.  Telegram is used as a messaging ap by over a billion users worldwide.  Pavel Durov was accused of noncompliance with EU judicial demands and arrested during a holiday last year.  He remains under quasi-detention confinement.

Many people have increasingly expressed annoyance at the change in Tucker Carlson’s interview style.  The increased interruptions, wandering rambling that takes the point off subject, inappropriate -borderline annoying- laughter at the wrong moments, and increasing Hannityesque behavior has been a sidebar topic of conversation. However, this is the first interview in which I can say these distracting interview traits have become unbearable.

I really wanted to hear from Durov, but I could not survive the inappropriate timing of the interruptions, and increasingly odd mannerisms from Mr Carlson.  From a mental strength, stability and intellectual perspective, Carlson is way over his head trying to interview Durov. Perhaps that explains the performative and seemingly odd behavior of Tucker in this interview.  It gets worse as it progresses.  See for yourself.  WATCH:

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Pavel Durov is a very deliberate man with an exceptionally stable disposition.  He is one of the most important people in the world of information, communication and the free exchange of ideas.  Yeah, I’m a little frustrated with this missed opportunity to go into important considerations in the world of information sharing.

Chapters:
0:00 Being Arrested in France
10:57 France’s Attempt to Humiliate and Tarnish Durov
15:54 Did the Russian Government Ever Try to Arrest Durov?
17:21 How Telegram Makes Money
20:04 Are They Attacking Durov Because He’s Russian?
21:19 Did Anyone Defend Durov?
24:23 What Did Durov Do in Jail?
25:17 Is Durov Allowed to Leave France?
30:37 The Real Reason They’re Attacking Durov
31:56 Europe’s Mission to Make Privacy Illegal
39:20 France’s Confiscation of Durov’s Phone
40:47 The Investigation Into Durov
56:52 How Telegram Stays Neutral in Global Politics
58:44 The Advancements of Encryption Technology
1:00:47 Is There Anything That Can Prevent a Government From Spying on You?
1:02:42 The Importance of Disconnecting
1:04:40 Durov’s Thoughts on Ross Ulbricht
1:06:54 Will Durov Stay in France After the Investigation?