Tag Archives: Cycle of war

Dec 28 2019

Understanding Cycles


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Dec 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I met someone who used to work for you. He said your models are far more complex than anyone imagines and that it is not a simple algorithm. He said you have relied on quantum mechanics which is why nobody has been able to duplicate what you do. Would you care to comment?

PD

ANSWER: Society in the West is blocked mentally. The primary distinction remains the assumption that the world is linear, which is completely wrong for it is cyclical. Take global warming. The analysis being applied is absolutely absurd. Scientific methodology is one of unbiased inquiry based upon reason supported by evidence and collective investigation. Global warming has none of that and it is simply propagated as a belief. They refuse to demonstrate how the climate has changed for thousands of years. The latest claim is that the extremely cold winters are also caused by C02 without any evidence to show such historical volatility and Co2. They just make it up and nobody asks to see the proof.

Linear analysis is just so absurd it is hard to see how any intelligent body would use it when the world is not linear in any possible way — we do have seasons! In the study of light, it was assumed in classical linear analysis that an increasingly higher frequency of the electromagnetic wave would cause the universe to simply destroy itself with black body radiation. This is what became known as the ultraviolet catastrophe. Obviously, that has not happened. The reason is the existence of cycles. Energy is not constant. It unfolds in segments Max Planck called “quanta” and we arrive at what is known as threshold energy.

Suffice it to say, this area of understanding cyclical behavior is extremely complex. I simply have called this the “Schema Frequency” upon which all others travel in a piggy-back manner as a derivative of something that defies the notions of real world analysis. It is far deeper in the world of quantum mechanics where it is even possible to have the same thing in two locations simultaneously. I still struggle with trying to figure out a way to articulate this concept.

The energy is linked to the frequency. Consequently, our Energy Model is determined by the frequency and is therefore linked to time. But light acts like a particle and a wave. This duality is by no means restricted to just light. There is duality is cyclical analysis as well.

When you breakdown how we think, you may believe you “think” in words. When you have to speak in a language such as Japanese v Latin-based, some words in Japanese like Onegaishimasu (おねがいします) do not directly translate to a specific English meaning. Conceptually, it can mean anything from “Please, could I have a cup of coffee?” (Kōhī Onegaishimasu) or “Can I use your phone?” (Denwa Onegaishimasu), to a stewardess announcing we are about to take off in an airplane (Onegaishimasu) or “Please do your best,” “Please have a good game,” or “I pray you…”. In other words, it is a “concept” that we have in our mind which is understood but not an English word.

Therefore, the Schema Frequency is complex and it is a concept not easily translated into words. There are two worlds — the classical world we believe we live in and the world of quantum mechanics. When we look at this 2016 penny, the surface appears smooth. When we look at it under a microscope, we see that the surface is not smooth. This illustrates the difference between the two worlds of observation in a crude simplistic manner.

Dec 23 2019

Sports Peaked with 2015.75 and NFL Has 15,000 Unsold seats


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Dec 23, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

superbowl

COMMENT: Marty; Your forecast that sports peaked with the ECM 2015.75 and would decline was really amazing. Socrates is monitoring everything and your explanation that sports would peak and decline was part of the cycle has proved that there are so many trends all interconnected.

Fantastic forecast nobody else even thought about.

GH

REPLY: Yes, it may seem amazing, but humans react the same way over the centuries given the same or similar trends in the economy. The NFL has thousands of empty seats that show everything is subject to cyclical behavior

Dec 14 2019

Antifa Leftists Riot in London Following Massive Election Loss…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 13, 2019 by 

Following a major election victory for conservatives in the U.K. the Antifa-left start rioting in the streets again.  Proving once more that socialists do not accept election outcomes.

The vitriolic response from the British socialists resembles an almost identical response following the 2016 election victory of President Trump.  Same groups, same political ideology, same behavior, same violence, rage and expressed anger.

The inability of the progressive left to accept the outcome of an election is identical in both the U.K and the U.S.  Calling Boris Johnson a racist and attempting to delegitimize the election outcome has a ring of familiarity for Americans.

The decades of their united globalist efforts to tear at the very fabric of nationalism is being eliminated. The radical socialists have nothing to lose; the media is sympathetic to their objectives; their desperate need for a collectivist society is visible within their apoplexy.  They are afraid of the individual accountability that comes with freedom, and they’re damn sure displaying it.

Do not look away.

Andy Ngo

✔@MrAndyNgo

Antifa are rioting in London in response to the election results giving Conservatives a huge electoral win. It’s like what I saw in Portland in November 2016.

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Dec 13 2019

The British Election – Socialists Lose Big Time


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Dec 13, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

Conservatives are now in full control of Parliament, and Britain took one major step closer to leaving the European Union. The socialist Jeremy Corbyn said he would not lead the Labour Party in another election. All the hype about socialism and how they have been so vocal has resulted in what our computer has been projecting – not this time. There has been a shift extremely left in many elections including those in the United States. But for all the noise, yelling, and screaming, socialism is dying.

The British election was called because the opponents of BREXIT did everything in their power to obstruct the democratic result of the referendum to leave the EU. They had the audacity to claim the people were too stupid and did not understand what they were voting for because the politicians have continued to want to surrender British sovereignty to Brussels while for some they would lose their pensions.

While the election began as a second referendum on BREXIT when the polls showed that the Conservative Party of Prime Minister Boris Johnson was well ahead of Labour, the Labour Party did what politicians are great at – tried to change the subject. The Labour Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, turned the election away from BREXIT, which he knew he would lose, and transformed it to the claim that the Conservatives would sell Britain’s National Health Service to Americans. That was really absurd since the U.S. government cannot deal with Obamacare yet they were going to take over Britain’s failing health system?

The significance of this election is demonstrating the rising frustration with governments. As they say, it is better to deal with the devil you know and in that case, it is British Parliament. The British people have no right whatsoever to vote on the policies coming from Brussels. The British government loses every time in any dispute with Brussels. It has been simply a relationship that has never enjoyed mutual respect.

 

Dec 13 2019

Wakey Wakey – Exit Polls Show Landslide Conservative Boris Johnson Win in U.K. Elections – Open Discussion Thread….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 12, 2019 by 

A “landslide”, a complete “wipe-out”, a “massive victory” appears looming for Boris Johnson and the conservative party in the U.K. if exit polls are accurate.

These blowout results guarantee a faster Brexit from the European Union and the leftist labor party in the U.K. has been crushed.  Conservatives look to have picked up 50 seats and Labor has lost 71 seats; the Scottish National Party (SNP) has picked up 20.

The “Remainers” in the U.K. have been decimated, and the voters who want to “Leave” the EU have fueled a massive victory for Boris Johnson.  Liberal heads are blown-out, bigly.

(Via Daily Mail) Boris Johnson hailed his new blue-collar Tory army tonight as it emerged he is on track to secure a staggering landslide in the election battle – with Labour’s ‘red wall’ of Brexit-backing strongholds imploding.

A dramatic exit poll shows voters handing the Tories a massive 368 seats, with Labour languishing on 191 – down 71 on 2017 and the worst performance in modern history.

The bombshell numbers would give a huge Commons majority of 86, the biggest since Margaret Thatcher’s triumph in 1987, and are equivalent to a 10-point lead in the popular vote. (more)

This result also has massive ramifications for a U.S-U.K trade deal; and subsequently major leverage for the U.S. (independently) and a U.S. – U.K. alliance in future trade negotiations against the European Union.

Dec 12 2019

Republics & the Death of Democracy Drowning in Corruption


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Dec 12, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Martin, The Death of Democracy is alive and well here in Seattle. A statewide initiative I-976 to limit Washington car tabs to $30 has just passed with a large majority. In less than 24 hours Seattle’s mayor Jenny Durkan has already announced a lawsuit against it with support from King County Executive Dow Constantine. Washington governor and former presidential candidate Jay Inslee has also chimed in and halted all statewide transportation projects not underway. Amazing how an initiative that limits the government’s tax revenue is resisted by the government in full force within 24 hours.

The impetus of this initiative was the discovery that our local transportation agency Sound Transit has been illegally collecting excessive taxes through a vehicle valuation depreciation schedule that was more conservative than the one that was listed on the initiative which passed in 1996. In other words, they have been collecting “extra” taxes for more than 20 years and a recent lawsuit against the agency finally brought this fact to light.

I guess if the government steals money from us that’s ok, but when the people pass an initiative to simply stop the crime it is resisted with every resource government has available

Thank You,

Alex

REPLY: This is the problem with career politicians. This is what has to change. We really need term limits, for ONLY then will we achieve a true government for and by the people. Virtually every Republic has mired and drowned to death in their own corruption. The only form of a republic that seemed to work for a while was that of the Republic of Genoa,which was one of the Italian Maritime Republics. The Doge (President) rotated among the top rich families for a period of one year following the ancient Roman tradition of an annual consul. There was no class warfare and they ran the government more like a corporation to compete with Venice and Florence as well as the Republic of Pisa and Amalfi  in the south. During the late Middle Ages, Genoa was one of the major commercial powers of the time and it became a center for merchant banking during the 16th and 17th centuries, which also made it a major financial center in Europe until the Spanish defaults. Christopher Columbus was from Genoa. He donated one-tenth of his income from the discovery of the Americas to Spain to the Bank of Saint George in Genoa for the relief of taxation on foods. There is a splendid monument to Columbus in Genoa even though they refused to fund his voyage.

When the presidency rotated annually, nobody would ever pass a law that would punish themselves when they left the office and returned to private life the following year. This is what we so desperately need to restore. Only because the Doge rotated annually did Genoa truly prosper. Venice also had a Doge but he was appointed for life and the city owned all the ships.

Dec 10 2019

Brexit & Generations


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Posted Dec 10, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:

Hi Martin

I live in the UK and I’m thinking

“Is there anyone out there that thinks the same way as I do about Brexit..??? Because no one on TV or in the media look at the Brexit situation like I do…??

However. Every single person I speak to. “Do actually agree with what I say..!!”
Here is my thinking….!!!!

1:- Why did I and many people vote for Brexit???
Answer:- Because we want to be “Free of control” from the EU….!!!
(While it was just a trading agreement it was OK.)
But when it (the EU) took control over our Laws, Jurisdiction, Parliament & or very existence without the ordinary guy in the street having any say about it.
It became something of a dictatorship.

2:- What situation do we find ourselves in now….???
Answer:- we are still under the control of the EU But in addition, we are now under the control of our own Government….!!!!

The ordinary guy in the street still has not got what he asked for…… “To Exit the EU…!!” To my mind “It’s plain and simple….!!”. This type of so-called democracy. “DOES NOT WORK…!!!”. In fact, I don’t think You can call it “Democracy” in the true sense of the word….!!!!

I would like to know what other people feel about not only Brexit. But all other “So-called” Democracies……????.
And with all the riots going on around the world now, are we heading towards a worldwide revolution by the peoples of the world…….??????
Because that’s what it seems like to me.

Kind Regards
JC in Central England

ANSWER: You are correct. The EU has deliberately rejected democracy because the elite believes that one European government will eliminate war. They have tried to create a single government, but have simultaneously refused to have consolidated the debts. Had they done that and Britain had joined, then it would be next to impossible to exit because of the debt.

We are witnessing a worldwide revolution indeed. People are rising up against governments in general because it is obvious that corruption has become standard. Additionally, we have the third generation from World War II, which means their values have completely changed from the 1st generation. This has a host of differences from what they consider to be viable to ethics. This is one reason why the younger generations do not look at silver or gold as the first generation.

Dec 9 2019

FREXIT – Is France Hurling toward Exiting the EU?


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted Dec 9, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

France is by no means calming down. There is a major underlying problem in France which is rising to the surface in direct confrontation with the government and Macron’s ambition to lead Europe. Macron’s confrontation with Trump over NATO is a reflection of a historical posture of the French government that has resented both Germany and the United States. Macron had said, “The Atlantic alliance can only be restored in one way, through restoring the unity of Europe.” The twelve founding members set up a headquarters together for the first time in London in 1950.

NATO Headquarters was located at 13, Belgrave Square. The last meeting to be held in London before the move to Paris was on April 1, 1952, which coincided with NATO’s third anniversary.  NATO was forced to move its headquarters from Porte Dauphine in Paris, France (the A building for Alliance) following the French withdrawal from NATO, which then moved to Brussels, Belgium in 1967.

Macron did not advocate that France should pull out of NATO as was the case under  President de Gaulle. Indeed, de Gaulle did withdraw France from NATO’s military structure in 1966, yet it remained an Ally. Macron has been also pushing for a European Army. Clearly, Macron’s agenda has been to federalize Europe and that is clashing with the people. He is NOT a proponent in having the USA a major part of NATO according to reliable sources.

Macron has been pushing economic reforms to curtail the social benefits in France in his effort to federalize Europe. In protest of his planned reforms in the pension system, the unions have organized several general strikes, which are now being joined by the yellow vests. This has resulted in bringing in hundreds of thousands of protesters to the streets. The problem which Macron faces is that France’s economic performance can no longer finance the generous welfare state which is far beyond international standards.

Everything points to a major political crisis brewing i9n France and there is talk that perhaps France should also now move to exit the EU – FREXIT. According to Harris Interactive poll taken 26–28 of November 2019,  Macron has a favorable rating of only 39% and a disproval rating of 61%. His push to federalize Europe may be his undoing. Macron admitted in January 2018 that if the French people were given a right to vote of FREXIT, a simple yes / no response to such a complex question, the French would “probably” have voted for FREXIT.

There is no question that there remains a serious risk that FREXIT can also be on the horizon for the driving force is the collapsing economic structure of socialism. American politicians will one day face the very same crisis. All the promises of benefits are coming to an end

Dec 8 2019

The Opium War


Dec 7 2019

BREXIT & Pound Rally


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Dec 7, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

One of the major distinction is how politics has degenerated into who knows what, all we need to do is look at BREXIT and the chaos of the British elections come the 13th. We have never seen an election where former prime ministers have intervened to disrupt an election as they have this time around. Instead of coming out to support their successors, the former Prime Minister John Major, who staged the coup against Margaret Thatcher in an attempt to abolish the pound and join the Euro along with former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair have both been condemning the leaders and questioning whether voters should back them over their positions on BREXIT. Both men support the full surrender of all sovereignty of Britain no matter what they claim. They both believe in trying to create the United States of Europe.

Meanwhile, Senior Diplomat Alexandra Hall Hall has left the UK diplomatic service over BREXIT claiming she is not taking a position. Her resignation letter read:

“I have been increasingly dismayed by the way in which our political leaders have tried to deliver Brexit, with reluctance to address honestly, even with our own citizens, the challenges and trade-offs which Brexit involves; the use of misleading or disingenuous arguments about the implications of the various options before us; and some behaviour towards our institutions, which, were it happening in another country, we would almost certainly as diplomats have received instructions to register our concern.” 

Hall is really against BREXIT and her resignation one week before the election demonstrates that she is trying to “influence” the election rather than truly expressing her patriotic frustration. You would expect her to wait for the election to see if anything changes. Resigning ahead of the election and blaming the politicians is absolutely a staged ploy.

The British Pound has pushed above the key 1.18 level against the Euro and 1.31 against the U.S. Dollar over the last week among the rise in expectations for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party to win a majority at the polls next week. This would mean no coalition and it would be a rejection of Labour which has become extremely left wing. Despite the resignation of Hall and both Major and Blair coming out against BREXIT, the markets are showing relief that Labour will lose.

Cat