The Coming British Elections


QUESTION: I know you were rather close to Sir Alan and Prime Minister Thatcher. I also know you are close to a number of politicians here in Britain. I was at your Edinburgh conference where they introduced you as a seventh-generation Edinburgh Scotsman I found very interesting rather than an American. You are famous here in political circles for many forecasts with the latest being the BREXIT victory. Do you have any insight into the December election? It is getting crazy here with two former Labour MPs declaring that they planned to vote for the Conservative Party because they said Labour’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was unfit to be prime minister. Then Tom Watson quit because of Corbyn’s policies over Brexit and his anti-Semitism. But the Conservatives seem to be less reliable as well. I think Nigel Farage may surprise a lot of people in this election. What does Socrates say?

GB

ANSWER: That is an interesting question. It is hard to map because of such a diverse breakdown in the “other” category. There is no question that Nigel’s party came out on top in the EU general elections. As we can see from the chart at the top, both Labour and the Conservatives are declining and there is a rise in both the Liberal Dems and “other” against the establishment so to speak. This is part of the global trend many outside the USA call the Trump Revolution. They are not referring to something that Trump did himself. Instead, this is a global trend against established political parties everywhere.

My advice to Johnson would be to cut a deal with Nigel’s Brexit Party. There is a trend underway that is bigger than most suspect. I know Nigel has no designs on being Prime Minister. However, fate will determine the roll of the dice. Nigel may end up in a position he did not wish to be in.

We will try to refine the models to do a proper forecast. Keep in mind that the “other” category is due for a strong showing and this will most likely be Nigel’s party. Also keep in mind that his Brexit Party does not hold any seats in Parliament at this time. That will change.

Bolivia’s Ex-President Flees to Mexico


Our model has been accurately forecasting the rise in civil unrest against governmental corruption on a worldwide basis. In Bolivia, ex-President Morales has fled to exile in Mexico. Previously, he was overthrown by the military under the pretext of electoral fraud. The country is drifting into political chaos. Bolivia happens to be home to the state-owned lithium industry, which is critical to driving electrical power by the global warming crowd. Bolivia has had a history of revolutions since 1781. The previous was 1949.

The Hidden Order & The Motive For Something Greater Than the Norm


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong;
What I have witnessed from your Socrates and the private blog the past two days, Nov. 29, 30, 2017, has got to be one of the most incredible man-made technological wonders ever created.
I am only a few years into your models but the past two days has left me stunned. The Socrates system and your blogs have captured, analyzed, and translated what I used to call the mood of the markets. I could for some time see underlying patterns and capture general ideas of trends by market fundamentals and of course political/investor influences, but how to analyze it all yet capture the actions of a human driven market to a precise time is nothing short of earth shattering (with a touch of “I told you so” if I may add).

There is a natural explanation captured within the Socrates analysis, which to me boggles my mind as most algorithms, codes, formulas are not at all natural. I recall reading the night when you said the outputs of your models “came to you”. The computer was giving answers but how to translate them was the key. That moment must have been like no other.

Your market skills were proven, then you set out to offer this public service, commercial free no less, which naturally has pissed off the ones that wanted an unearned advantage, credentials, and limelight. Strange how the pure-hearted always come out on top.

During my formal engineering career, I have had a nose for finding the best tool, system or person for the job, and finding your work crushes other analysts, those who are now, as you have put it so eloquently “getting their face smashed into the sidewalk.”

I want you to know that I am one of the little people you seem to want to help. One that relies on the savings over time and can now guide not only my own future but others as well. I am fortunate because I had to save on my own, employers don’t give benefit packages to cripples, because if they did I wouldn’t have got the job. At investing I wasn’t bad at nailing a few market trends but I had to learn on my own since nothing I came across made any sense to me, but learning your system is dominating knowledge. I want you to know that I study your writings a good sixty hours a week because I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but there’s no sense in not trying. I’m not that good yet but I can’t get enough.

You gave me this confidence sir, so as petty as this letter is, I just want you to know that this is one life that is bettered because of your generosity and those people in your organization who must be some of the best to offer such an incredible gift.

I owe you one;

RH

REPLY: The entire objective of what is behind my motives here is to demonstrate that we can manage the economy if we understand its true nature and how everything is linked together. Granted, perhaps only an international hedge fund manager has such an opportunity to see a world from a very high altitude, whereas a domestic fund manager just looks at the local headlines and the latest cryptic ramblings from the Fed. In the international arena, you have to pay attention to everything everywhere. When I was in Singapore, the election took place the night before in the neighboring country. I had to know what took place and who was involved. I cannot say, oh let me get back to you on that, and then go ask Google. We have to pay attention to politics everywhere because that implicates COUNTRY RISK – the #1 criteria on investment strategy.

I have poured all my experience into training Socrates. I taught it HOW to analyze, and turned it loose upon the world. There is NOTHING out there like it. It cannot even be copied. It incorporates my personal trading experience of more than 50 years combined with my understanding of programming.

That said, my motive is to try to make a difference in this world for my own family in the future. This is not about making money for me. If that was my objective, I would be selling advertising and people’s names. We get a lot of requests to advertise on our sites. I reject that because people trust me and they might take that as some sort of endorsement. The best thing is not to accept advertising because I cannot stand behind what others are doing.

 

 

We will have an opportunity in 2032 to reshape society. It is my hope that the more people who witness Socrates will realize this is not me personally writing over 1,000 reports daily on instruments around the world. Then its accomplishments will prove that there is a hidden order behind the veil of chaos. When we run the Dow through our Chaos Models, a clear pattern is revealed confirming that this is no random walk. This is also why there are some who are desperate to prevent people from listening to Socrates or me. They want to keep the status quo. Others try to criticize me as if I was one of them and offering just personal opinion. They cannot get their head around that this is a computer that sees everything on a global scale, with the most sophisticated models in the world, and it can articulate completely on its own. It is something that will survive my death, which was my goal.

As they say, you can’t take it with you. So the answer — find a way to leave it behind!

British Labour Party – The Greatest Threat to Britain


There is absolutely no question that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party poses a greatest threat to Britain than Brexit. Corbyn said, “Nurses, teachers, shop workers, builders, just about everyone is finding it harder to get by, while Morgan Stanley’s CEO paid himself £21.5m last year and UK banks paid out £15bn in bonuses.” What he fails to consider is that the solution is not to raise taxes on CEOs, the solution is to reduce government. Even if they seized 100% of CEO salaries, it would not pay the expenses for a single day. But they love to point to some individual rich person and make it sound like all will be well if they just seize his money.

Socialism is dead. Before income taxes pre-World War II, the wife could stay home and raise the children. Today, that is not a possibility for most people. It takes two salaries to pay for the very same living standard pre-World War II. The more government pretends to do something, the greater the cost of government becomes. Every time they introduce some new tax, they hire more people and create more regulations for that specific tax. It is simply an endless process where now about 40% of the civil workforce is dependent upon government, which means they do not produce anything that contributes to the GDP of a nation.

Corbyn has boasted that the Labour Party is a threat to the rich. All he will do is send a massive migration from Britain. We have already been getting questions about moving companies and their domicile to the USA, as has been taking place even with major public companies in Canada

The Risk of War between Pakistan & India


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Your model which forecasts the start of rising tensions between Pakistan and India for 2019 has been absolutely correct. What do you see now going forward?

KED

ANSWER: The history of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan began on August 14, 1947 (1947.619) when the country became an independent nation within the British Commonwealth as the result of the partition of India. This has been a divide based upon religion and there lies the threat of war. The target for 2019 was 72 years from the beginning of the modern state of Pakistan. The threat here is one of nuclear war between the two and the impact that could have on the global environment. Make no mistake about it, reason takes a secondary position to religion.

The target year of 2019 was the beginning. The tensions will continue to rise and reach a peak in 2025. If there is a risk of a nuclear war, that would probably be at its greatest point by January 2025. The ancient history of the region is very complicated. It has been part of many overlapping various empires from Greek to Indo.

Nine American Women and Children Massacred by Mexican Drug Cartel, President Trump Offers U.S. Military Assistance to Mexican Government….


Last month the Mexican government backed-down from a drug cartel in Culiacan, releasing the two sons of drug lord El Chappo after the cartel overwhelmed the Mexican military during an attempted arrest.  The cartel defeated the Mexican military.

Today, three American mothers and six children (4 boys, 2 girls) were brutally murdered in northern Mexico by drug cartels prompting President Trump to offer military assistance to Mexican President Lopez-Obrador in the ongoing struggle against cartel violence.

.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Gunmen killed nine women and children in the bloodiest attack on Americans in Mexico for years, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to offer to help the neighboring country wipe out drug cartels believed to be behind the ambush.

All nine people killed in Monday’s daytime attack at the border of Chihuahua and Sonora belonged to the Mexican-American LeBaron family, members of a breakaway Mormon community that settled in northern Mexico’s hills and plains decades ago.

A video posted on social media showed the charred and smoking remains of a vehicle riddled with bullet holes that was apparently carrying the victims on a dirt road when the attack occurred.

[…] A relative, Julian LeBaron, called the incident a massacre and said some family members were burned alive.

In a text message to Reuters he wrote that four boys, two girls and three women were killed. Several children who fled the attack were lost for hours in the countryside before being found, he said. He said it was unclear who carried out the attack.

[…] Trump tweeted that he would await a call from Lopez Obrador, urging him to accept U.S. assistance.

Lopez Obrador said he would call Trump on Tuesday about ways to cooperate on security but rejected what he called any foreign government intervention.

“I’ll speak with President Trump to thank him for his support, and to see if in cooperation agreements there’s the possibility of getting help,” he told a news conference. “I don’t think we need the intervention of a foreign government to deal with these cases,” he added.

[…] “War is irrational. We believe in peace,” said Lopez Obrador, a leftist who took office last December. (read more)

It’s starting to look like President Lopez-Obrador is a cartel manager.

Build the wall.

BREXIT – Live Decline & Fall of Western Society


Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologized on Sunday to Conservatives for failing to take the U.K. out of the European Union by Oct. 31st. Nigel Farage said he won’t personally run for a seat in Parliament. The plan to leave by Oct. 31st was blocked by the Remain crowd who refuse to accept any democratic process because they lost the vote. This is what is behind the decline and fall of western civilization. The losing crowd to any election is unwilling to ever accept a loss and move on. We have entered the second half of the Economic Confidence Model wave where governments simply lose all-purpose. The Remain crowd prevented a BREXIT without a divorce deal. They required Johnson to seek a BREXIT extension. The EU has granted a three-month Brexit extension until Jan. 31st, 2020.

Johnson has pushed for an early national election on Dec. 12th in which he hopes to get a more BREXIT-friendly Parliament. Nigel Farage has, in turn, pushed for his BREXIT Party to team up in a coalition with Johnson’s Conservatives for the December election. However, Johnson has so far refused the offer. That seems to be a wrong decision on Johnson’s part. This has resulted in Farage vowing that his party will contest every seat in England, Scotland and Wales against the Conservatives unless Johnson drops his BREXIT agreement, which Farage and his party believe is far worse than a no-deal BREXIT. Nigel told the BBC he will travel within Britain to support some 600 BREXIT Party candidates rather than by seeking a seat for himself. It is ironic that probably the best-qualified person to lead BREXIT is Farage, but he told the BBC: “I don’t want to be in politics for the rest of my life.”

Misrepresenting Our Forecast for the Start of Big Bang 2015.75


COMMENT: I find it really shocking how people are slandering you claiming you forecast that 2015.75 would be the collapse of everything instead of the peak in governments and the beginning of the decline and fall. You have made that very clear that this was the turning point to begin the change. It was the precise day Russia sent troops into Syria. It was the start of the massive migration of refugees to Europe. It was the start of the shift in politics that led to Trump’s victory the following year. It seems that there are people desperate to try to prevent others from listing to you. I think they are conspiring against the people.

HS

REPLY: I know. It is an outright misrepresentation of our forecasts and it is deliberate. Our post back in 2014 laid it out clearly:

“As we approach the start of BIG BANG (2015.75), which is 26 years from the first crack in Marxism 1989 first observed in China followed by the fall of the Berlin Wall within months, ever since the world has been drastically altered economically. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was part of this process. That was not a CIA plot, but the unraveling of the Marxist Era. We should witness dramatic political and economic changes going into 2020.05. The bottom of the ECM 2020.05 will also be 31.4 years from the start of the fall of Communism that should culminate in the final stages of the collapse of Socialism. This is part of the cause of BIG BANG that will become focused most intensely between 2015.75 and 2020.05.”

December 28, 2014

I think the collapse in the confidence of governments has been indeed the pronounced characteristic of this 4.3 year part of the wave. The European and Japanese Bond markets have been destroyed. Both governments are on life support. I think we have some very serious sovereign debt problems and we are looking at that on the state and municipal levels. Why would someone claim we have been wrong and misrepresent that there is no sovereign debt crisis? It certainly seems that they are spreading propaganda to help keep the banks and governments in play.

Socialism is making a major play to win the 2020 elections here in the States. We have an obvious coup unfolding against Trump carried out by the CIA, FBI, and NSA. This target is 31.4 years from the START of the fall of Communism. It is the START of this trend in Western Society NOT THE END!!!!!!!The 2020 election in the USA will be the most contentious since the 1960s and we should expect a rise in civil unrest. It will turn into a major political battle at the peak of the next wave – 2024.

They simply try to assume this is my personal opinion and they are incapable of looking at the global economy and how it is all connected. Focusing on a single component blinds them from seeing the whole.

I fully appreciate we can bring legal action against them and have sent that question to our lawyers.

Nigel Farage Interviews Donald Trump


The International Politics is Impacting Where People Can Travel


COMMENT: Marty; I don’t think you realize that when Nigel Farage said your events are the alternative to Davos, there is no other event that has such attendance. I have been to other trading conferences. They are lucky to have half your attendance and you have more institutions than even Davos. I know you keep trying to limit the size of these events, but we get to meet so many people from all over the globe. Your staff said you had attendees from over 50 countries this year. Please don’t reduce the size.

Thanks for the great conference. It was spectacular and provided detail that is really not available anywhere.

Cheers

Keep up the good work

EK

REPLY: I appreciate your perspective. We have over 1,000 attendees at these events each year and the demand keeps growing. This year, politics was playing in the background. The biggest institutions from China could not attend because of the trade dispute. They did not want to apply for a visa. So we will have to hold one in Shanghai in the Spring. Politics will only get worse. I do not know if we will be able to hold any in Europe starting 2021 due to the changes in the law for visas there. It is getting worse by the year. Our own staff in India were denied visas to attend the conference this year.

Many do not want to travel to the States and we have to accommodate our international clients. Each year it is getting more difficult.