Tag Archives: ECM

May 28 2025

Canada Today


Posted originally on CTH on May 27, 2025 | Sundance 

I’m sorry, but when I finally got around to review the appearance of King Charles in the Canadian Parliament, I could not get past the optics on display.

My background thoughts are HERE, but boy howdy does this picture encapsulate the dynamic.

[VIDEO IS HERE]

And yes, King Charles waxed eloquently in both French and English about the terrible issue that Canadian sovereignty is facing.

The same issue, albeit to a lesser -but increasing- extent, is the core impetus between U.S. President Trump’s manufacturing policies in the USA.  President Trump is urgently attempting to rebuild a collapsed industrial manufacturing base.  However, from the leftist position of Canada, the easier route that affords them the ability to chase the green energy rainbows is to retain a dependency manufacturing model.  These are political decisions.

At the core of this dynamic you will find the reason why President Trump is likely to dissolve the U.S/Mex/Canada (USMCA) trade agreement and instead turn toward two independent bilateral trade agreements between the USA-Mexico and USA-Canada.  Extend this reasonably accurate predictive economic reality to its logical conclusion and you see why the U.K wants to help bolster Canada.

In the battle against President Trump’s economic ferocity, Canada is relying on the friendly, duplicitous and influential mask work by Great Britain.

May 27 2025

British King Charles Arrives in Canada to Coordinate Defense Against U.S. Economic Positioning


Posted originally on CTH on May 26, 2025 | Sundance

King Charles is arriving in Canada today in advance of an opening speech he will deliver to the Canadian Parliament.   Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney invited King Charles to attend, and while the media portray the visit as mostly symbolic there is no doubt the substantive issue for Canada is the economic dependency on the USA and how the U.K can bolster the position of Canada against that threat.

Everything is always about the money of the thing, this dynamic between the U.K and Canada is no different.  What we would call the ‘western’ global financial system is contingent upon all U.S. allies retaining the United States as their consumer base and stable currency center.  President Trump has exposed the vulnerability of Canada as he confronts the parasitic relationship {GO DEEP}.

In advance of the U.K positioning itself as the skirt behind which Canada can hide from the horrible Trump, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer extended an invitation for President Trump to attend a state visit in his honor later this year.  The effusive praise from Starmer during the White House meeting was keenly strategic, so too was their urgency in creating the first new-era free trade agreement with the USA.

Perhaps President Trump’s embrace of Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia should be viewed through this financial prism where the EU, U.K and Canada will ultimately go to war (together) against the efforts of President Trump.  Within the partnership of the UK, EU and Canada, the Snow Mexicans are the weakest link, the most vulnerable to collapse from Trump’s economic policy.

Canada no longer has any substantive ability to create heavy machinery industrial goods.  Most of the Canadian manufacturing equipment is imported from China and the EU.

The same issue, albeit to a lesser -but increasing- extent, is the core impetus between U.S. President Trump’s manufacturing policies in the USA.  President Trump is urgently attempting to rebuild a collapsed industrial manufacturing base.  However, from the leftist position of Canada, the easier route that affords them the ability to chase the green energy rainbows is to retain a dependency manufacturing model.  These are political decisions.

At the core of this dynamic you will find the reason why President Trump is likely to dissolve the U.S/Mex/Canada (USMCA) trade agreement and instead turn toward two independent bilateral trade agreements between the USA-Mexico and USA-Canada.  Extend this reasonably accurate predictive economic reality to its logical conclusion and you see why the U.K wants to help bolster Canada.

In the battle against President Trump’s economic ferocity, Canada is relying on the friendly, duplicitous and influential mask work by Great Britain.

LONDON/OTTAWA (Reuters) – King Charles flies to Canada on Monday for a highly symbolic visit showing support for the nation that recognizes him as its sovereign but is coveted by U.S. President Donald Trump as a 51st U.S. state.

Following an invitation from Prime Minister Mark Carney, Charles will open parliament in Ottawa on Tuesday, the first time a British monarch has carried out the duty since his mother, the late Queen Elizabeth, did so 68 years ago.

Trump has repeatedly expressed a desire to annex Canada, a proposition fiercely rebuffed by Carney whose election win last month came partly on the back of that stance.

“The prime minister has made it clear that Canada is not for sale now, is not for sale ever,” Canada’s envoy to the UK, Ralph Goodale, told reporters during a visit last week by Charles to Canada’s high commission.

“The king, as head of state, will reinforce the power and the strength of that message.”

Charles has made subtle signals of his backing for Canada in recent months, wearing Canadian medals, calling himself the king of Canada, and describing its flag as “a symbol that never fails to elicit a sense of pride and admiration”. (read more)

Remember, the core of the thing is money.

What does that mean?

Well, in addition to the zero-sum mindset of the Canadian and British governments, it also means both Republicans and Democrats in congress will fight President Trump with extreme prejudice.

If you want to see a Republican fight, start to threaten their financial status and suddenly all those spineless Republicans will attack the disruption with a ferocity that could fuel ten-thousand Dragon-X launches.   If you doubt that truism, go back and look at the Republican support for President Obama weaponizing the IRS against the Tea Party.  If you still doubt that truism, look around right now at how hard the Republicans are fighting to retain the Ukraine laundry operation.

There is no such thing as a “Republican ideology,” it is always about the money.

The UniParty is two wings of the same bird, a vulture.

Republicans will soon profess their undying love for a free and sovereign Canada, and if President Trump doesn’t return the effusive praise for King Charles things will get ugly.

If President Trump walks through the firestorm of the influence campaign and exits to the other side still intending to demand trade reciprocity -using tariffs to deliver it- he will be as isolated from the Republican party apparatus as MAGA voters are.

May 26 2025

The Theory of UNCERTAINTY


Posted originally on May 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Knight Frank

QUESTION: What is your view of Frank Knight’s view of risk versus uncertainty?

HL

ANSWER: Frank Knight, an influential economist and founder of the Chicago School from which Milton Friedman emerged. He is known for his work on risk and uncertainty, and he articulated a key distinction between the two concepts in his 1921 book “Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit”. The widely cited quote is:

“Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated. The term ‘risk,’ as loosely used in everyday speech and in economic discussion, really covers two things which, functionally at least, in their causal relations to the phenomena of economic organization, are categorically different.”

Knight argued that risk refers to situations where outcomes are unknown but probabilities can be calculated (e.g., gambling or insurance), making it measurable and manageable. On the other hand, uncertainty describes scenarios where probabilities cannot be determined due to a lack of historical data or predictable patterns (e.g., unprecedented market shifts). This distinction underpins his theory of profit, where entrepreneurs bear uncertainty (not mere risk) as a source of potential economic reward.

Uncertainty

This framework remains foundational in economics and decision-making theory, emphasizing the role of unquantifiable unknowns in shaping entrepreneurial behavior and market dynamics. I, being a trader rather than an academic, however, disagree insofar as nothing is truly UNCERTAIN. The problem with classical economists is that they have not explored ancient history, assuming the data is inconsistent or nonexistent. Then this view is compounded by the idea that the economy is random, and we can manage it, which was first presented by Karl Marx.

Einsteing dice

I have said many times that when I was in school, in economics class, they said it was random, and this government can smooth out the booms and busts under Keynesian Economics to prevent another Great Depression. Then I went to Physics class and was told that NOTHING is random. I concluded that someone was lying, and it was the economists. They refused to investigate the business cycle and presumed they could manage it.

Burns Arthur

Anyone who had actual experience disagreed with the classic economists. Arthur Burns was the Fed Chairman when Bretton Woods broke. He concluded that the business cycle existed and always won. Then there was Paul Volcker, the next Fed Chairman. Paul also came to the same conclusion that the business cycle existed despite the classic economic theories.

Volcker Rediscovery

I had a conversation with Paul Vocker, who told me my Economic Confidence Model was correct and agreed that the business cycle was about 8 years. This flies in the face of classical economists.

Roman decline silver content monetary system Armstrong Waterfall effect
1964 1965 Quarters

I knew that Roman coins were attainable. I bought my first one for $10 in the 1960s. When they removed the silver from the coinage in 1865, I saw the connection to the very same event that marked the start of the Third Century Crisis.

Debasement Gallienus

When I assembled the coinage to answer a gnawing question: How did Rome fall? Was it like a 747 coming in for a landing gradually, or was it abrupt? I discovered it fell from 50 %+ silver to 0.2% in just 8 years.

ECM GIF Turning Points

I discovered no such thing as random walks down the street. That is put out by people who cannot see the cycles before their eyes. Turn the economy down, and politics will always flip, no matter who is in power. The EU is fighting to stay alive, so they are interfering in elections to defeat anyone who is anti-EU. This will only blow up in their faces. The economy will always force a response, and human nature has never changed in 6,000 years. Whoever is in power will always respond similarly to the same old economic pressure.

Hammurabi Stella2

Read Hammurabi’s Legal Code. It is wage and price controls in response to an economic crisis. Even the Bible outlawed socialism. Attacking the rich and class warfare has been a problem since ancient times and it has always resulted in the collapse of such economies. Nothing has changed – ever. So, where is the UNCERTAINTY?

Marx ten commandments socialism
May 25 2025

Interview: Central Banks Trapped, Confiscation in EU, China New Financial Capital


Posted originally on May 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

May 25 2025

Armstrong Interview in Alberta About Separation


Posted originally on May 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Cornerstone Interview May 2025

May 25 2025

How Alberta Can Actually Separate from Canada


Posted May 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

How_Countries_Separtate F

This is perhaps one of the most fascinating reports I have ever written. This was inspired by my invitation to speak in Alberta concerning their movement to separate from Canada. A few propose being the 51st State, but the more practical move would be to become a sovereign state on their own, which I lay out in the proposal that would rock the entire world and propel Alberta to a leader among nations.

But what is far more critical is that I have gathered historical separation events to take the best from that and what to avoid. However, in the process, such separations and revolutions have ALWAYS taken place with the minority and not the majority. The average number of what percent of the population is required to pull off a separation or revolution is LESS THAN 15%!!!!!

Pulling together this research blew my mind. This goes against what most would expect. It also shows how this process has unfolded; not all are violent. As you can see, the significant events like the American Revolution, the French Revolution, and the 1917 Russian Revolution are included. In these events, I have focused on the percentage of the population it took to achieve the result. I have included the ancient revolution, including the Roman-Judaea War, and the shocking realization that the Zealots were a tiny fraction of the Jewish population.

This Report will shock you as it did me.

It is Reasonably Priced at $19.95 and comes out to 314 pages, fully illustrated.

How_Countries_Separtate INDEX

May 24 2025

“The EU Is Not Making The Progress The President Wants To See.” Steve Bannon On Trade War


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: May 23, 2025, at 1:00 pm EST

May 22 2025

The UK’s Descent Into Totalitarianism


Posted originally on Rumble By Charlie Kirk show on: May 21, 2025 at 6:00 pm EST

May 19 2025

Lara Logan Speaks Up About South Africa on the Alex Jones Show


Posted originally on Rumble By Lara Logan on: May 17, 2025 at 5:30 am EST

May 19 2025

NATO WINS – Romanian Candidate who Supports the EU, Brussels and War Against Russia Wins Election


Posted originally on CTH on May 18, 2025 | Sundance

Nicușor Dan was the pro-EU, pro-war and pro-NATO Romanian presidential candidate supported by Brussels.

When Nicușor Dan came in second place in the first round of elections, CTH noted he was very likely to succeed because the stakes are just too high for the European Union.  The largest NATO military base in Europe is being built in Romania.

There was simply no way the collective assembly of the Intelligence Community, the military industrial complex, the pro-Ukraine elements, the anti-Russia NATO/EU alliance were going to allow defeat.   As expected, Dan won.

BUCHAREST — Romania elected a centrist president in a major surprise after an intense campaign in which voters looked likely to propel another hard-right populist to lead a large European country. 

Despite coming a distant second in the first round two weeks ago, the moderate mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, won by a decisive 8-point majority over his radical rival, George Simion, who conceded defeat early Monday after initially declaring himself the winner. 

With 99.8 percent of polling stations counted by 1:50 a.m. local time Monday, Dan had won 53.8 percent to 46.2 percent for Simion. Turnout was 65 percent, the highest since 1996.  (more)