Posted originally on Aug 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Bank of England has cut its base interest rate to 4%, even as it warns of rising inflation. “We’ve cut interest rates today, but it was a finely balanced decision. Interest rates are still on a downward path, but any future cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully,” Governor Andrew Bailey stated.
The nine-member panel of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to lower rates by 0.25 percentage points, but failed to reach a unanimous vote with four members wishing to pause and another voting for a cut. The committee initially began with a 0.5 percentage point vote before reducing it to 0.25, marking the first time the MPC has needed a second vote—no one knows what they are doing.
The bank lowered rates but admitted that headline inflation is expected to hit 4% in September, up from the initial 3.75% estimate. Households are already spending one-tenth of their income on food, yet the bank expects food inflation to spike to 5.5% this year.
The central bank attempted to blame grocery store employee wages for price increases. “Furthermore, overall labour costs of supermarkets are likely to have been disproportionately affected by the lower threshold at which employers start paying NICs… these material increases in labour costs are likely to have pushed up food prices.” Every nation is facing a sharp upturn in food prices and store employees are not the culprit. The bank also acknowledged that unemployment has risen for five consecutive months, with unemployment reaching a four-year high in May 2025 at 4.7%.
The central bank cannot fight inflation as consumer demand is not driving price increases. Russian sanctions, net zero insanity, regulation, taxes, and an overall decline in public confidence have led Britain to decline. Let us not forget the looming sovereign debt crisis that every central bank is attempting to ignore publicly. Starmer is steering the nation directly into war, which never benefits the people and will become the primary culprit of inflation in time. The central bank cannot control fiscal policy; it cannot control inflation—all it can do is pretend to have a grasp on the situation to quell panic.
Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: I find it very interesting that Earth passes closest to the densest part of the Taurid stream in late October and early November, when both the Southern and Northern Taurids are active. However, 2032 is predicted to have enhanced activity due to gravitational influences from Jupiter, which can bring more debris into Earth’s path. Some have suggested that an impact of a cosmic event caused the Younger Dryas, perhaps from this Taurid stream, if the Earth were hit by a comet or asteroid impact around 12,900 years ago, which triggered the Younger Dryas that sent the planet into an abrupt cooling lasting about 1,200 years. That would be like a mega volcanic winter. If you divide 12,900 years ago by 8.6, that is precisely 1500 cycles. Since the forecast for the highest intensity in the Taurid stream is 2032, is your computer picking this up?
Jos
ANSWER: The cycle is fractal, like everything within nature. We know that the world dramatically changed about 11,000 years ago. Six waves build into 51.6 years, and six of those build into 309.6 years, with six of those creating waves of 1857.6, and 6 of those take us right to 11,145.6. This is a significant turning point. I cannot dismiss the scientific forecast for 2032, coinciding with the Taurid stream out of hand. I think we do need to pay attention and be prepared to divert such an impact if it becomes obvious. We are headed back into a cooling period – not warming. These nut jobs who want to put dust in the air to reduce global warming will kill most of humanity when a volcano of 7+ erupts on top of their dust.
Posted originally on Aug 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
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Posted originally on CTH on July 29, 2025 | Sundance
The reality of the U.S-Canada economic relationship and the position of President Donald Trump is not that difficult to understand if you take all the disparate datapoints and quotes from Trump and put them into context.
During a White House meeting with Mark Carney, President Trump essentially told the Canadian Prime Minister why he was in no hurry to get to a deal with Canada.
The 35% tariffs on non-USMCA goods are going to trigger on August 1st, because the main priority of Trump -looking toward Canada- is to dissolve the USMCA.
During the May 6th oval office meeting with Carney, President Trump was discussing the USMCA and said: “As you know it terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” … “This was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that” … “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.” …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.”
To understand why President Trump wants to dissolve the USMCA {SEE HERE}. To understand the technical value of dissolving the USMCA {SEE HERE}. It’s not a complicated economic analysis; it’s common sense.
Currently, approximately 60% of the traded goods and services between the U.S. and Canada are covered by the USMCA; the remaining 40% will be hit by tariffs on August 1st at a 35% rate.
When the USMCA is renegotiated, predictably dissolved in favor of two bilateral trade agreements – one for Mexico and one for Canada, all of the U.S-Canada trade sectors will be part of the enlarged free trade negotiation. As a result, there is absolutely no motive to engage in trade discussions now.
♦ President Trump’s position is essentially to talk about the details when the USMCA is dissolved; hence, the ambivalence.
Politico is noting the Canadian trade team simply doesn’t understand this. “[D]espite months of back and forth, the terms for a deal have not yet been set, a senior government source said, with the White House informing the Canadian side that Trump is more focused on securing deals with other partners like India.”
(Politico cont..) […] Earlier this month, Canada conceded that any deal with Trump is likely to include tariffs.
Carney’s government wants stability around the tariffs Trump invoked using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
They are crushing Canada’s auto, steel, aluminum and forestry industries. Trump also plans to hit imported copper with 50 percent tariffs starting Aug. 1 — with semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports likely to follow.
Canada ultimately wants the tariffs eliminated or lowered to a fixed level that doesn’t fluctuate, the senior government official said. “If we know what world we’re going into, then we can have better plans and policies to attract investment.”
Canada’s premiers say the unpredictability is punishing the economy.
“Private investment is not growing because everybody’s on pause,” Quebec Premier François Legault told reporters last week. “They are waiting to see what will happen. I’ve been in business — it’s about the worst thing you can have is uncertainty.” (read more)
The certainty the Canadians are looking for can be found easily if they stop pretending.
(1) U.S. tariffs against non-USMCA products from Canada will go into effect on August 1st. (2) As soon as the USMCA is reopened, it will be dissolved. (3) After the USMCA dissolution, a bilateral free trade agreement between the USA and Canada will be negotiated.
Every current effort by Canada to change the nature of the trade system, between now and the reopening of the USMCA (to dissolve it), is futile.
Again, I’m not exactly sure why this reality is so challenging for the Canadian govt to understand.
Posted originally on Jul 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, they call you the legend since you have been calling markets and trends for decades. It is not hard to see that you are perhaps the greatest trader of all time. You are famous for not calling the 1987 Crash, but the very day of the low, you called the low and said that the market would make new highs by 1989. You did the same in 2009 even Barrons reported that call that the market would make new highs when everyone else was calling for a depression.
Others claiming to be analysts hate you because they do not have the trading skills you display, in addition to Socrates. When you said the low would be April 7, I spoke to many people who laughed and said No way. When I talked to others I met at your Conference, they said never be on the opposite side of a call like that.
Was this your Scheme Frequency Model that you refuse to publish because governments could abuse it to topple governments? Or was this your cyclical stochastic that I notice with hindsight went to zero the day before?
Care to give us a hint?
Jef
ANSWER: These calls to the day have been the Scheme Frequency, not the Stochastic. Nonetheless, you can use the Cycle-Infused Stochastic, which differs for each market as the computer determines the frequency mix. The short-term Blue in the Stochastic hit ZERO the day before. With hindsight at the end of the day, the Blue turned up confirming the forecast was correct. But the April 7th forecast was made well before.
The Array was published on the Private Blog on April 7th, along with a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle the very next day, which should have been to the upside. There are 72 separate models in this Array. Neither the Scheme nor the Economic Confidence Model is included. Three computers are analyzing every market, from trading patterns to various definitions of volatility, including intraday and overnight. The top line represents the aggregate meaning, which is the sum of 72 models. The accuracy is (1) no human opinion or emotion, and (2) it is a correlation of analysis rather than a single model or one that requires human opinion, like Elliot Wave, where two people using the same theory reach different conclusions.
Look, I am sorry, what should have been a discovery for the betterment of humanity was a target for power. What I discovered will die with me. I cannot allow them to get their hands on it. When the CIA asked me to build the model for them, I offered to run whatever study they wanted. Their response was – They had to own it.
Crossfire Hurricane was the code name for the counterintelligence investigation undertaken by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) from July 31, 2016, to May 17, 2017. It was when FBI director James Comey raised suspicions of obstruction of justice, which triggered the Mueller investigation. James Comey was the head of the DOJ in NYC, who was keeping me in contempt indefinitely until the Supreme Court ordered the government to explain what the hell was going on. Then they had to release me. My case centered around the attempted regime change they were orchestrating to seize control of Russia, which I refused to participate in. Then Comey even “interviewed” Hillary and took no notes, so she could never be prosecuted. The FBI always takes notes in a proffer session. Then, was Comey involved in Crossfire Hurricane? I believe Comey was well aware of what was going on in NYC.
I was kept in prison without even a description of a crime. Ask any lawyer if this was legal. There is no rule of law in the United States. Justice is spelled “JUST US” and you are a fool if you think they give a shit about anything other than their own power. They circumvent Congress, and most judges do whatever the government tells them to order. They tortured me. They throw you in a cell that is so hot, underwear is too much. Then they throw you in a cell that is so cold you can see your breath with nothing to keep you warm. Because the courts claim that torture is defined as leaving a mark on your body, so anything they do, like waterboarding, is not torture.
Torture is defined under U.S. law (18 U.S.C. § 2340) and the UN Convention Against Torture as severe physical/mental pain or suffering intentionally inflicted. Waterboarding (simulated drowning) has been prosecuted as torture by the U.S. itself (e.g., post-WWII trials of Japanese soldiers). However, when the Neocons employed it under the Bush administration, OLC memos argued waterboarding was not torture if “properly limited.” These were withdrawn in 2009 and deemed “legally flawed” by the DOJ.
In Padilla v. Yoo (9th Cir. 2012), which was a case regarding legal immunity for John Yoo (author of OLC memos), the court avoided ruling on waterboarding’s legality. Still, it included a footnote (dicta) stating:
“We have no occasion here to decide whether waterboarding constitutes torture… even if it could be torture in some circumstances, it was not torture as applied to Padilla.”
When Judge Lawrence M. McKenna attempted to protect me, the DOJ then went to the Chief Judge to have my case taken away from him, as he had refused to recuse himself at the government’s request. The court sealed the docket, and they refused to explain how they could remove a judge in violation of Due Process of Law, with no information revealed as to how. I believe it is sealed because this was all about national security. Under US law, this is supposed to be illegal. They do not care about the rule of law when the government wants something. They could not deny Free Speech, so they call on YouTube, Facebook, etc., and have people removed or have their accounts shut down by banks.
They then gave my case to Judge John F. Kennan, who then denied all discovery despite a court-appointed accountant stating the government refused to turn over evidence for 7 years. They were using my accounts for money laundering post trades that were not mine and then backing them out to different accounts the next day. Judge Kennan, along with Judge Peter Kevin Castel, ensured that I had no rights, not even human rights, let alone constitutional rights. The court-appointed lawyer, David Cooper, refused to file an appeal, I believe, to protect the government that had instructed him not to do so. Court-appointed lawyers lose 99% of the time because they should never be trusted – they are pawns in all cases. Even General Flynn discovered how a hired lawyer will not defend you, as shown in his documentary. Even Trump could not remove a judge. Absolutely nobody will dare investigate my case because they know what it would expose.
To make the movie “The Forecaster,” they must have insurance against slander and libel. They had to prove that the government was after the model, and they slipped up by putting it in writing. When they torture you, their way to survive is to take their power away. You must lose all fear of death. People think that imposing the death penalty for a crime is the worst punishment. They understand nothing. There are things far worse than death – being tortured for the rest of your life every day, but never enough to kill you or leave a mark on your body so they can pretend to be honorable and respect human rights.
I have seen the true colors of the real beast. I said before, I will die with the Schema Model. They will abuse it and use it to achieve regime change, which I was in the middle of as they tried to take control of Russia in 2000. That is why Hillary created the RussiaGate Affair, and I question if Attorney General Pam Bondi or anyone in the Trump Administration would dare to investigate my case, for it would expose the Neocons and that they were trying to seize control of Russia, installing their puppet Boris Berezovsky, whose own bodyguard said he never committed suicide – he was killed by MI6. I believe the truth has its limits.
BTW, the company they wanted me to invest $10 billion for this regime change was Hermitage Capital Management owned by Edmond Safra, who I believe the CIA killed in Monaco, and Bill Browder who just so happened to have been the right-hand man of RobertMaxwell (1923-1991) – the father of GhislaineMaxwell the girlfriend of Jeffrey Epstein who ran the biggest blackmail operation perhaps in history for who? People think it is a list of pedophiles. RIGHT!. It is a list of victims, and the real question is what they did on the orders of Epstein and for whom?
Robert Maxwell was linked to Mossad, and his death in 1991 also coincided with the fall of the USSR. I believe he was part of the manipulation club and lost a few hundred million pounds trading with the pension funds of the employees. He magically fell off his yacht before having to testify. Robert Maxwell died under mysterious circumstances just before he was due to testify about missing funds from his companies’ pension schemes. On November 5, 1991, his body was found floating in the Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands, where his luxury yacht, the Lady Ghislaine, had been anchored. He was reportedly facing serious legal consequences, including possible fraud charges, and was due to testify before UK regulators. Whenever I was asked to join the “club,” I said, “I do know how to swim.”
Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell reportedly met in early 1991 in New York before her father died. There is so much more to the Epstein affair, but they keep everyone focused on pedophiles rather than on the blackmail and real motives and who was truly pulling the strings.
Jeffrey Epstein attended Robert Maxwell’s funeral in 1991. Epstein had financial and social ties to Maxwell and his family. Epstein’s presence at the funeral is documented, and it underscores his early connections to powerful figures. Robert Maxwell died under mysterious circumstances after falling from his yacht, Lady Ghislaine (named after his daughter). Robert Maxwell had long been the subject of speculation regarding possible connections to intelligence agencies, including Israel’s Mossad. While no definitive proof has been made public, several credible reports and investigations suggest that Maxwell had significant ties to Israeli intelligence. I covered my investigation of this in the Plot to Seize Russia.
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