Tag Archives: Huxley’s “Brave New World”

May 4 2017

March Trade Deficit Shrinks To Smallest Since October


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE May 4, 2017 8:49 AM

The US Trade Balance shrank to $43.7 billion in March, from an upward revised $43.8 billion in February, marking the month’s deficit the smallest since October and less than the conesnus estimate of $44.5 billion. Imports declined by $1.7 billion, or 0.7%, to $234.7 billion, while exports dipped fractionally more, or 0.9%, even as the recently weaker dollar did little to boost US exports. Notably, the US trade deficit with China was $31.4 billion, followed by the European Union at $10 billion. The trade deficit excluding petroleum stood at $35.82b in March.

The details: the deficit decreased in March 2017 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $43.8 billion in February (revised) to $43.7 billion in March, as imports decreased more than exports. The previously published February deficit was $43.6 billion. The goods deficit increased $0.4 billion in March to $65.5 billion. The services surplus increased $0.4 billion in March to $21.8 billion.

The March decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.4 billion to $65.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $21.8 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $9.4 billion, or 7.5 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $38.0 billion or 7.1 percent. Imports increased $47.5 billion or 7.1 percent

Exports

Exports of goods and services decreased $1.7 billion, or 0.9 percent, in March to $191.0 billion. Exports of goods decreased $2.1 billion and exports of services increased $0.4 billion.

  • The decrease in exports of goods mainly reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($1.8 billion) and in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.9 billion). An increase in capital goods ($0.7 billion) partly offset the decreases.
  • The increase in exports of services mainly reflected increases in financial services ($0.1 billion) and in maintenance and repair services ($0.1 billion).

Imports

Imports of goods and services decreased $1.7 billion, or 0.7 percent, in March to $234.7 billion. Imports of goods decreased $1.7 billion and imports of services decreased less than $0.1 billion.

  • The decrease in imports of goods mostly reflected decreases in capital goods ($0.9 billion) and in industrial supplies and materials ($0.7 billion). An increase in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.1 billion) partly offset the decreases.
  • The decrease in imports of services mainly reflected a decrease in transport ($0.1 billion), which includes freight and port services and passenger fares.

Broken down geographically, the March figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.9), South and Central America ($2.6), Singapore ($0.5), United Kingdom ($0.5), and Brazil ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($31.4), European Union ($10.0), Mexico ($6.5), Japan ($6.5), Germany ($5.0), South Korea ($2.5), Italy ($2.1), Canada ($1.9), India ($1.7), OPEC ($1.6), Taiwan ($1.1), Saudi Arabia ($0.8), and France ($0.1).

  • The deficit with Japan increased $1.6 billion to $6.5 billion in March. Exports decreased $0.2billion to $5.3 billion and imports increased $1.4 billion to $11.8 billion.
  • The deficit with South Korea increased $0.6billion to $2.5 billion in March.Exports increased $0.1billion to $3.9 billion and imports increased $0.8 billion to $6.5 billion.
  • The deficit with France decreased $1.2 billion to $0.1 billion in March.Exports increased $0.6billion to $3.3 billion and imports decreased $0.6 billion to $3.5 billion.

While still a significant hole, the declining deficit trend will likely provide some satisfaction to president Trump; that said the US has a monumental task ahead of it if it wants to shrink the gap to zero.

 

May 4 2017

The Euro & French Elections


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted May 4, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

IBEUUS-M 2-6-2017

QUESTION: Martin You said the turning point will be on monday 8th may. Could it be in connection with the result of the french election on may 7th? If it isMacron, the turning point will be up. If it is Le Pen, it will be down. Or?

Thanks. Regards.

 

ANSWER: The French media is portraying Macron as a centrist. It is expected that Macron should be able to attract a wider spectrum of second-round voters than Le Pen, pulling in left-leaning voters from Hamon and Mélenchon as well as those leaning to the right that voted Fillon in the first round. The polls put him at 65%.

Our computer projected that the “populist” vote would win.  Indeed, for the first time in modern French history, the runoff vote will not feature a single presidential candidate from a mainstream party. The Conservative and Socialists all lost.

The elite want Macron to win but this will be the nail in the coffin for the EU. Brussels will assume they defeated the “populist” simply if Le Pen loses. However, the mainstream parties all lost already. Macron will simply mean that Brussels will not reform and that suggests that we are looking at the collapse of the Euro moving forward into 2018. Our Yearly models have had three Directional Changes 2017 into 2019. Our Monthly Models have been targeting May 2017 for about one year.

Germany-France

A Macron victory should help the Euro hold for now. The key resistance stands in the 113-114 zone. The press will try to manipulate the people to save the EU. That is the agenda of the press in Europe, so they will cheer Macron and do their best to destroy Le Pen and in doing so, they are condemning the EU to utter failure. All they can see is keep the EU together even if that leads to internal civil war within Europe. The only thing holding the EU together is France and Germa

May 4 2017

How Small Events Can Cascade into Contagions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts

Re-Posted May 4, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

COMMENT: Dear Martin Armstrong,

This very unusual video about dominoes is 2½ minute and shows how a small domino can knock over big ones. I remember you writing about a small Austrian bank, Creditanstalt, that in 1931 was the first sign of the economic depression. Maybe these dominoes can illustrate what happened.

I hope you are fine and thank you for this blog

L

REPLY: This is a great example of how a small event can set off a contagion. This is exactly how it works within the global economy

May 4 2017

Changing Cycle Frequencies Produces Different Effects


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted May 4, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

1-ElectroMagnetic Wavelength

QUESTION: Marty, I’m glad that you’ve showed a couple of examples in the past few articles, as per how you apply ECM and volatility cycle waves to events. Yet, can you please explain the methodology and criteria which you use in deciding how to apply them?

What is the criteria with which you choose the starting date of any particular event? Why do you sometimes apply ECM 51.6 time-units, or 72 (volatility), or 31.4 (Pi), or at times intervals such as 2×8.6 vs 34.4, and so forth?
I do understand the arithmetic and the individual cycles, yet I want to understand how your mind combines the right frequencies and adopts the correct cyclical pattern for analysis. In few words, what is the methodology.

Thanks in advance for everything you’re doing.

—

SB
Wave-Shape
ANSWER: Cycles are identical to light, which always moves in frequencies. Everything within the universe is fractal. So discovering the key then applies in all frames of reference. It is way too complex to answer in a brief note. I promise, I am trying very hard to complete the Geometry of Time. It will take a lot of pages to explain this complex and deep subject.
Nevertheless, with a light wave, alter the frequency length and you get a different effect. Major turning points are the convergence of many cycle frequencies. Each will depart from that same event producing different effects and events in the future. It is all about understanding each wave and what it will produce like radio waves, microwaves, infrared, visible light, ultraviolet, x-rays, and gamma waves. They are all part of the light wave. Change the frequency and you can watch TV or cook din
May 3 2017

Mainstream Media is the Third Horseman of Economic Apocalypse


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized

Re-Posted May 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Washington Post - Logo - 1

COMMENT: Martin,

OK, so I don’t follow major media at all.  However, there was a link to a story from the Washington Post on Google.  Silly me–I followed it.  There, in white letters on a black background was the WP’s logo and motto:  “Democracy dies in darkness”.

And there you have it:  They told the truth, but not in the way they wanted.  Their lies and corruption are the darkness that kills democracy.

-DB

PulitzerHearstWarYellowKids

REPLY: It is very sad, but they are doing what history always shows happens. The press champions self-interest. They created the Spanish American war with fake news about the sinking of the Maine in the Spanish harbor. The Pulitzer Prize was created because he made so much money starting that war becoming the father of Yellow Journalism, he donated his money to Columbia University to clean up his reputation after he died. Any journalists are proud to win the Pulitzer Prize named for the very guy who championed fake news.

Four Horsemen-Apocalypse

When the news turns to propaganda, it is one of the last things to take place in the historical sequence of how civilization falls. The mainstream media is the third horseman of economic Apocalypse – Taxes – Corruption  (Politics/Rule of Law) – Propaganda – War.

*(First you have the taxes, then comes the corruption to bribe politicians to get out of the taxes and they use the courts to extract taxes, then comes the propaganda of the media to manipulate society to hold on to power, and then finally comes the war (civil unrest/international)

May 3 2017

Poland – The Next Crisis for the EU – Independent Sovereignty is the Issue


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted May 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

warsaw-2

 

GDP World Bank 2016Poland represents a major threat to the EU. The entire idea of the EU was the propaganda that Member States would successively grow into a real Union through a longer integration process. GDP was supposed to grow, not decline, and the threat of war would vanish by surrendering sovereignty to Brussels. In reality, the exact opposite has unfolded. GDP has progressively declined and the risk of a European war has been increased with the idea of surrendering sovereignty to Brussels.

Throughout Europe, there is a growing “populist” movement especially ignited with the attempt to force member states to accept refugees when this was an unilateral decision exclusive made by Merkel to save her public image after being hard on Greece.

British GDP Growth since 1949

Even the data from the British Government clearly shows how their GDP has declined ever since joining the EU in 1973. Obviously, the exact opposite trend determines reality – not political propaganda. The movements that promotes the sovereignty of the national states and demand a weakening of the central institutions are on the rise all over Europe. This is what Brussels calls the “populist” movement.

Poland is questioning the current situation of the EU in its current form and is not finding it agreeable especially when it goes against their religious foundation. Many are alarmed because there were more Mosques built in Britain during 2016 than churches. Churches are on the decline and even synagogues are being converted to Mosques.

Poland is the largest beneficiary of EU payments receiving an annual net of just €10 billion. Nevertheless, Poland represents a huge risk to the EU for the independence and sovereignty of Poland has become a top priority in the face of forced refugees. Poland is actually more linked to the USA and Britain than to Brussels.

May 3 2017

Is There Really More Oil in The Golan Heights than in Saudi Arabia? Who’s Genie Energy?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy

Re-Posted May 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Golan_Heights_Map

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong I live in Israel and today I listened to your podcast with Macrovoices. At some point you mentioned that there is more oil in Golan heights than in Saudi Arabia -and this oil belongs to genie energy. Is it true? How can it be that nobody knew nothing about this in Israel? Are you sure 100 % about this information? I will be happy to know more about this.

best regards

EP

Genie Oil & Gas

ANSWER: Yes. This is one of the best kept secrets. You can imagine that if this went into production, then the disputed Syrian land issue occupied by Israel would come to the forefront. This is why it gets no play but this is one reason Obama was working to overthrow the Syrian government. They would not have political people on the Strategic Advisory Board if they did not need political strings pulled.

Politically, you have the Pipe Line from Qatar being one major issue that was to compete with Russia in selling gas to Europe, which is why Putin is involved. He is not involved in Egypt, Israel, or even Afghanistan. This is the reason why Putin has an interest in Syria and the mainstream media of course championed Obama claiming he was defending children. Then we have Genie Oil and strategic oil reserves within occupied Syria. Just look at the people who are are heavy hitters on the Strategic Advisory Board of Genie Oil!  Not bad for a company nobody has heard of and the glaring issue is why do you need heavy hitters like this just to pump oil? Location! Location! Location! The mainstream media is not going to report on this issue. They even have Rupert Murdoch on their Strategic Advisory Board. This is hush hush in the mainstream media.

Strategic Advisory Board

The Strategic Advisory Board of Genie Oil and Gas advises management on strategic, financial, operational and public policy matters.

Michael Steinhardt (SAB Chairman)
Noted Wall Street investor and Principal Manager, Steinhardt Management LLC. Founder Steinhardt, Fine, Berkowitz & Co., and noted philanthropist.

Richard (Dick) Cheney
46th Vice President of the United States. Vice President Cheney also served as President and CEO of Halliburton Company and U.S. Secretary of Defense from 1989 to 1993.

Marry Landrieu
United States Senator from Louisiana from 1996 to 2014. Senator Landrieu served as chair of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. In her capacity as chair, she sponsored and passed the U.S.-Israel Energy Cooperation Bill. The bill fosters partnerships focused on developing resources such as natural gas and alternative fuels, on the academic, business and governmental levels.

Rupert Murdoch
Founder and Executive Chairman of News Corporation, one of the world’s largest diversified media companies. News Corporation’s holdings include Fox Entertainment, Dow Jones and Company, the New York Post, HarperCollins and significant media assets on six continents.

Bill Richardson
Governor of New Mexico from 2003 to 2011. Mr. Richardson has served asU.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (1997-1998), Energy Secretary in the Clinton administration (1998-2001), Chairman of the 2004 Democratic National Convention, and as Chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.

Jacob Rothschild, OM, GBE
Chairman of the J. Rothschild group of companies and of RIT Capital Partners plc. Chairman of Five Arrows Limited. Lord Rothschild is a noted philanthropist and Chairman of the Rothschild Foundation.

Dr. Lawrence Summers
Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard University. Dr. Summers served as the 71st Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton and as Director of the National Economic Council for President Obama.

R. James Woolsey
Director of Central Intelligence from 1993 to 1995 and as Under Secretary of the Navy from 1977 to 1979. Mr. Woolsey is co-founder of the United States Energy Security Council and is Chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

May 2 2017

Civil Unrest in Oregon – Communist Uprising is USA?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest

Re-Posted May 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Oregon Civil Unrest

 

Oregon Civil Unrest May 2017We have succeeded in moving close toward the Civil Unrest that can erupt into civil war. In Oregon on the Communist May Day holiday,  anti-Trump factions who are calling themselves now “anarchists” have turned violent.  They threw rocks, smoke bombs and just about anything they could at police officers during a May Day rally. Thousands more marched in other major cities around the nation on this Communist day when Russia would display its military weapons and celebrate the people working for the State.

Minhaj Hasan

The press is fueling this for they have been cheering attacks upon Trump and have made this seem acceptable and  normal. Hasan Minhaj even said Trump Tweets at 3Am because he is up for open of business in Russia. No matter what, the press will always blame Trump’s victory on Putin just as the European Parliament blames BREXIT not on themselves, but on the British and that is why they should be punished. The Press in America has the same arrogance and this negativity is what makes anarchy seem acceptable.

2017 Cycle of War

May 2 2017

Federal Reserve & Elastic Money & NY Clearing House Certificates


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis

Re-Posted May 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

NY Clearing House

QUESTION: Why do you support the fed in what you call elastic money and not a gold standard?

ANSWER: As usual, you listen to the nonsense about how the Fed is owned by the banks and is responsible for probably everything evil from creating wars to probably killing JFK. The entire use of “elastic money” was not invented by the government or the Fed. It began in 1853 with a little known group to try to help in the middle of a crash for what you are advocating is precisely what Europe has done – impose austerity.

The Panic of 1873 saw the government make a small gesture to try to calm the panic. They did the same thing as Quantitative Easing back then – Yes, not even that is new. The US Treasury injected cash by purchasing government bonds. It did NOTHING to help the economy. Why? When confidence crashes, people HOARD money and will not spend it if they fear the future. The cash they injected was hoarded by the banks just as it has been post-2007. Quantitative Easing in this manner NEVER produces inflation nor does it stimulate the economy.

1907 Clearing House Scrip San Fran

The banks got together to create their own “Elastic Money” using the New York Clearing House. Failing to increase the money supply meant that the value of money in purchasing power rises and all assets decline. This is the hallmark of EVERY recession or depression. During the Panic of 1873, the national banks of New York pooled their cash and collateral into a common fund, and placed this in the hands of a trust committee at the New York Clearing House, which had been founded on October 4th, 1853. The New York Clearing House then issued loan certificates that were receivable at the Clearing-house against this collateral. These certificates were absorbed like cash and could be used to pay off debt balances. Ten million dollars’ worth of these certificates were issued at first, but the sum subsequently doubled. This Clearinghouse paper served its purpose admirably.

By October 3rd, 1873 confidence had been returned and $1,000,000 of these certificates was called in to be canceled. The next day, another $1,500,000 more of these certificates were recalled. In the end, not much of this issue was outstanding very long. The Clearing-house scheme was successfully applied also in Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and other cities, but not in Chicago.

This was the birth of “Elastic Money” that makes sense. This prevents wholesale liquidation of assets to get cash in short supply. The problem is neither the Fed nor the concept of Elastic Money. The Fed was originally established in 1913 to act like the New York Clearing House but for all assets outside of Wall Street. Then came World War I the next year in 1914 and Congress ordered the Fed to buy only US government bonds. They never returned the structure of the Fed to what it was originally designed to do.

Hence, today we have Quantitative Easing when central banks buy government paper attempting to stimulate as they tried and failed every time previously. The difference was that the New York Clearing House Certificates were good among security dealers. They were not expanding the money supply nor could they be used for groceries at home.

The certificates were redeemed and those from 1873 are non-existent today because they were used among institutions. If you want to blame anybody or anything – blame the right person or group. What you are doing is blaming a murder on the person who manufactured a gun rather than the person who pulled the trigger. Blame Congress! Not the Fed!

We need a central bank and elastic money is an excellent tool. However, I would issue it in a two-tier manner. The normal tier is money commonly used. The second is the elastic money, but this automatically should expire in 6 years. Therefore, it will be redeemed as was the case in 1873.

*PS If anyone has such a New York Clearing House Certificate from 1873, I would be a buyer.

May 2 2017

Austria Wants to Tax Any Search, Like, or Communication via Internet


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Schieder Andreas

Andreas Schieder (born 1969) is the parliamentary head of Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern’s Social Democrats. He is a typical career politician since 1997 and the very type of person who has no idea about the world economy no less human nature. He is a highly dangerous bureaucrat who only looks at people like cattle from which the government can extract greater and great sums.

Schieder is obviously a Marxist who wants to now tax human behavior and any interaction you have with Twitter Inc., Google or Facebook among others. He wants to tax every time you do anything from searching, posting, tweeting or just liking someone’s post.

He claims this is really a barter transaction where it appears to be free but you are giving them your personal data that they sell to advertising. That arrangement is a form of bartering and any barter transactions is subject to the value-added tax. He said according to Bloomberg:

“The business transaction that’s going on here is that users are paying with their personal data,” Schieder told journalists in Vienna. “The business model of those internet companies is based on massive revenues that are generated with the help of those data.”

Andreas Schieder is a highly dangerous man. He only looks at what government can extract from people, never how government can reduce its size and cost to save money. It’s always just raise more and more taxes without end.