Tag Archives: Russia

Dec 3 2018

Climate Debate – Mann vs Curry & Moore June 2018


Published on Jul 22, 2018

Charleston, West Virginia, June 12, 2018. Dr. Michael Mann, Dr. David Titley, Dr. Patrick Moore and Dr. Judith Curry met in to discuss climate change. They were asked two questions: – To what extent is the use of fossil fuels affecting climate change? – What can and should be done to offset those effects? This video is the copyright of ©️2018 Spilman Thomas & Battle, PLLC. No infringement of copyright is intended. Video is presented here in its entirety without comment or advertisements, and is shown purely for educational purposes.
Dec 3 2018

The Next French Revolution – Is it Beginning?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest

Re-Posted Dec 3, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The austerity measures of the EU are having a profound impact in Europe. In Paris of December 1st, 2018 (right on time with our volatility models for December) there was a major civil uprising, the worst France has witnessed in recent decades. Yellow Vests have converged in Paris to protest high living costs or in other words – a TAX RIOT. Rioters ran across central Paris torching cars and buildings, looting shops, smashing windows and clashing with police. The French President, Emmanuel Macron, was in Argentina for a G20 summit and said he called an emergency meeting on Sunday when he would return. Jeanne d’Hauteserre, the mayor of Paris’ 8th district, near the Arc de Triomphe, came out and told the press: “We are in a state of insurrection, I’ve never seen anything like it.”

This has followed what was billed as a violent protest two weeks before of nationwide against fuel taxes and living costs. This tax rebellion is known as the “Yellow Vest” movement after fluorescent jackets kept in all vehicles in France. Politicians simply never learn. This is not just the youth. This is the older generations as well. Revolutions come become of taxes and corruption. The famous saying of Marie Antoinette “Let them eat cake” was the popular slogan during the French Revolution. There is no evidence that she ever actually said those words. Still, it inspired a revolution. The “cake” was not a desert, but it was a term that referred to the crust of the pâté which was left over. It certainly seems that the EU politicians are making the very same mistake. With that callous remark that was attributed to her, the Queen of France became the most hated symbol of the decadent monarchy and fueled the revolution that would cause her to (literally) lose her head several years later.

In Paris, the police fired stun grenades, tear gas and water cannon at protesters on the tourist street known as the Champs-Elysees boulevard. The police said they had arrested almost 300 people while 110 were injured, including 20 members of the security forces. As a consequence, there are now parts of the city of Paris completely void of police as there was a shortage to defend the entire city. This has resulted in groups of masked men roaming and looting through its fanciest shopping districts, smashing the windows of designer boutiques.

We can easily be witnessing the start of the next French Revolution. Our model for civil unrest interesting turned up in France on February 18th, 2013. The year before on May 6th, 2012, François Hollande was elected as the new president of France. While he may go down as perhaps the worst president in French history, on May 5th, 2013 is when the protests in Paris began. That first protest numbered in the tens of thousands marking the rising discontent with the Socialist François Hollande after just one year in power. Even the many supporters of leftist parties expressed dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy.

Ever since the civil unrest began on May 5th, 2013, there has been a building on economic tension within France. The lack of economic growth has plagued France and Europe as a whole. The French share market peaked in 2000 and has been unable to elect ANY Yearly Bullish Reversals to date and 2018 appears to be no different for this year’s closing.

This latest series of popular rebellions erupted on November 17th, 2018 and has spread quickly via social media, with protesters blocking roads across France and impeding access to shopping malls, factories, and some fuel depots. The gather at the Arc de Triomphe, chanting “Macron Resign” and writing graffiti on the Arch itself: “The yellow vests will triumph.”

Macron held a news conference in Buenos Aires where he said that there was no cause justified the looting of stores, attacking the security forces, or torching of property. Macron totally fails to comprehend that the violence is building frustration that historically is necessary to mature into a revolution. This is not a political movement. This is economically driven. The police said that violent far-right and far-left groups had infiltrated the yellow vests movement in a desperate effort to call them extremists. These protests began as a backlash against Macron’s fuel tax hikes, but have tapped into a growing resentment that all people get are higher taxes and lower standards of living.

While the protests appear to have caught Macron off-guard despite the fact that his poll rating is now down to 20%, like François Hollande, Macron is unrepenting and unyielding. He said he would not change his policy because of the protests of “thugs”. This only fuels the angry response that he is also out of touch with ordinary people, particularly in rural villages and the provincial hinterlands. There were people with signs reading “Macron, stop treating us like idiots!” Macron is inspiring real hatred as did Hillary Clinton when she called 50% of the country who voted for Trump the “deplorables!”

Macron may call them “thugs” but the “Yellow Vests” have widespread public support, even in cities. The vast majority of French people were fed up with Macron. You can see the anger is escalating more and more throughout France, according to my sources there, and Macron is as unyielding as was Hollande. Some say that Macron had written a book called Revolution. He obviously failed to understand what really makes a revolution – TAXES

Dec 3 2018

Clash between Catastrophe and Uniformity – The Global Warming Conspiracy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Dec 3, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Woolly Rhinoceros

Climate Change has existed throughout the history of our planet. When a Wool;y Rino was discovered frozen in Siberia intact back in 1774, that is the event that shook the scientific community. I have called this the Clash between Catastrophe and Uniformity which has produced an emotional issue corrupting scientific research for centuries as people try to create research that supports what they want to believe rather than what actually takes place. The idea that systems just collapse in a catastrophic manner can be disquieting to say the least. For this reason, uniformitarianism soothes the senses and brings order to the future dominated by uncertainty. All the analysis put out by the Global Warming conspiracy is simply a linear progression that projects a warming trend without any diversion – whereas no such trend can ever be identified in physics. This always ignores nature and the cyclical aspect of everything around us.

Yet, these two clashing schools of thought that lie at the core of just about everything from the Big Bang to Charles Darwin’s (1809-1882) Theory of Evolution, began with the discovery first in 1772 near Vilui, Siberia of an intact frozen Woolly Rhinoceros followed by the more famous discovery of a frozen Mammoth in 1787. You may be shocked, but these discoveries of frozen animals with grass still in their stomach, set in motion these two schools of thought since the evidence implied you could be eating lunch and suddenly find yourself frozen to be discovered by posterity.

Siberian Unicorn

There was yet a third animal known as the Siberian Unicorn which also roamed the region and is extinct today.In a recent study of Siberian Unicorn bone specimens were dated, which confirmed that the species actually survived until perhaps as late as 35,000 years ago. What killed it off was not humans, but Climate Change. True, it roams the world alongside early modern humans and Neanderthals. However, the Siberian Unicorn appears to have been wiped out as the Little Ice Age came and the decline in temperature led to an increase in the amount of frozen ground. Because it was a grass eater, its food supply ceased to exist. The Woolly Rhino was more diverse in its died so it managed to survive a bit longer and eventually became extinct 20,000 years later.

It was this discovery of the Wooly Rhino which changed science.  Suddenly, the idea of cycles was born. This I attribute to the school of what I call the catastrophists who would claim greater influence in the birth of the field of physics and then changed the entire course of science. This is what the Global Warming Conspiracy ignores. They have effectively rejected all the important discoveries including that of Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727) who developed his laws of gravity and was inspired by his friend to publish the work who underwrote the project, Edmund Halley (1656-1742).

This was the same Halley who discovered the cyclical nature of comets. Halley believed that the comet that carries his name was the same comet reappearing throughout history at regular intervals recorded by contemporary historians of all ages. The discovery of these frozen animals opened the minds of these men who suddenly saw the world was by no means linear. Halley saw hidden within history, the same periodic intervals of a comet.

Christiaan Huygens (1629-1695) discovered that light traveled not in a uniform motion as a straight line, but in a cyclical pulsating motion of cyclical waves, albeit at a constant speed. Suddenly, there could be a steady uniformity to the speed of light, yet simultaneously, there was a violent swing of extremes within it taking place in a cyclical manner. This was the same pattern that emerged in the ice core samples – the 300-year cycle to the energy output of the sun. There may appear to be uniformity in the macro world, but cyclical violent swings at the micro level that could erupt catastrophically are what we must explore OBJECTIVELY and not put out linear progressions such as Global Warming. The one thing we can bet on is that we do not live on a planet where climate has been linear.

Dec 3 2018

for What Reason other than War?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption

Re-Posted Dec 3, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Australian MP Michael Danby (outgoing) is to table the “Australian Magnitski Act” which is very strange. Things like this always seem to be presented by people who later do not stand for election. Nothing other than Browder’s narrative has considered. There appears to be an agenda here and it is building to what looks like a much needed war in order to relieve governments of the failure of Socialistic promises. Nobody seems willing to even look at the allegation of Browder for there was no way Putin would have killed Magnitsky when he would have been the BEST witness Putin would have had against the Western bankers.
On his Facebook page, Danby claims Australia needs a Magnitsky Act. That’s why I’ll be introducing a Private Member’s Bill on Monday to ensure it happens
Dec 2 2018

Yellow Vest Riots in France Continue – President Emmanuel Macron Under Siege…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 1, 2018 by

The protests, turned riots, are named ‘Yellow Vest’ after the high-vis jackets that are required in all French automobiles.  The protestors wear the vests amid their fury over rising fuel prices;  However, the protests have now evolved into a direct confrontation to the presidency of Emmanuel Macron.

According to media reports over 5,000 police were deployed as angry protestors began breaking stuff, smashing store windows and battling with government riot squads.

Despite the show of force by police the crowd overwhelmed their positions and set up barricades to block any effort by the French government to break up their protests.  Check points along the Champs Eleysees and Arc de Triomphe were taken over by the scale of the crowd.   However, it’s not just Paris – disruptive protests are happening throughout France.

Katie Hopkins

✔ @KTHopkins

Macron. En Marche? No, son. No one is listening to you. Not the Saudis. Not the French. Not Trump.

6,193

Voice of Europe 🌐 @V_of_Europe

The yellow jacket protests in France were massive and mostly peaceful.

Sources say the jackets were also used ‘as camouflage’ by violent groups (to riot).

1,967

Dec 1 2018

Professor Valentina Zharkova: The Solar Magnet Field and the Terrestrial Climate


Professor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October, 2018. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the solar background magnetic field observed from the Earth, revealed four pairs of dynamo waves, the pair with the highest eigen values are called principal components (PCs). PCs are shown to be produced by magnetic dipoles in inner and outer layers of the Sun, while the second pair of waves is assumed produced by quadruple magnetic sources and so on. The PC waves produced by a magnetic dipole and their summary curve were described analytically and shown to be closely related to the average sunspot number index used for description of solar activity. Based on this correlation, the summary curve was used for the prediction of long-term solar activity on a millennial timescale. This prediction revealed the presence of a grand cycle of 350-400 years, with a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity features reported in the past millennia: Maunder (grand) Minimum (1645-1715), Wolf (grand) minimum (1200), Oort (grand) minimum (1010-1050), Homer (grand) minimum (800-900 BC); the medieval (900-1200) warm period, Roman (400-10BC) and other warm periods. This approach also predicts the modern grand minimum upcoming in 2020-2055. By utilising the two principal components of solar magnetic field oscillations and their summary curve, we extrapolate the solar activity backwards one hundred millennia and derive weaker oscillations with a period of 2000-2100years (a super-grand cycle) reflecting variations of magnetic field magnitude. The last super-grand minimum occurred during Maunder Minimum with magnetic field growing for 500 years (until ~2150) and decreasing for another 500 years. The most likely nature of this interaction will be discussed and used to explain long-term variations of solar magnetic field and irradiance observed from the Earth.

Nov 30 2018

Solar Magnetic Field Oscillations Confirm Global Cooling is Upon Us


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Nov 30, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

Professor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October 2018. At the core of her work on the solar background magnetic field observed from the Earth, she revealed four pairs of dynamo waves, the pair with the highest eigenvalues are called principal components (PCs).  These PCs are produced by magnetic dipoles in inner and outer layers of the Sun. The second pair of waves is assumed produced by quadruple magnetic sources for example. These PC waves are closely related to the average sunspot number index.

Now, based upon this correlation, the summary curve was used for the prediction of long-term solar activity on a millennial timescale. She was able to determine the existence of a 350-400 year cycle, with a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity features reported in the past millennia – Maunder (grand) Minimum (1645-1715), Wolf (grand) minimum (1200), Oort (grand) minimum (1010-1050), Homer (grand) minimum (800-900 BC); the medieval (900-1200) warm period, Roman (400-10BC) and other warm periods.

 

She has reconfirmed from another perspective what the ice core samples revealed that match the Economic Confidence Model which I discovered from the economic analysis. Consequently, we have yet another confirmation with this approach that also predicts the modern grand minimum upcoming in 2020-2055 which will straddle the 2032 ECM major high. Therefore, the two principal components of solar magnetic field oscillations and their summary curve allows us to extrapolate the solar activity backward one hundred millennia. The period going into the peak of this Sixth Wave on the ECM projects a period of 2000-2100 years which we can call a super-grand minimum cycle that reflects variations of magnetic field magnitude.

The last Little Ice Age bottomed around 1600AD. The Sixth Wave of the ECM began from this period and as the climate grew warmer, the world economy once again expanded.

I hate to tell everyone but Global Warming is GOOD, and Global Cooling is BAD!

We really need to prepare for what is to come.

Nov 29 2018

Global Cooling – not Global Warming, that we should Fear the Most.


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Nov 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

It is incredibly important to understand that as the weather turns bitterly cold in the north, people will begin to migrate south. This not merely cause the Greeks to become the Sea Peoples, but during the Year without a Summer in 1816 even in the States when six inches of snow fell in June and every month of the year had a hard frost, people began to migrate. The temperatures had dropped to as low as 40 degrees in July and August in New York City during 1816. People also called it ‘Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death’ and the ‘Poverty Year.’ This is what I keep pointing out that cold is what kills society and creates poverty – not warming.

The Year without a Summer sent people fleeing from New England states in search of warmer weather and fertile soils both south and west. It was the weather that began to cause migration in the United States outside of the 13 original states. Thousands of New England families gave up their farms, packed their belongings into wagons and joined the throngs traipsing over rivers and mountains to Pennsylvania and the Ohio River Valley, which includes Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky.

Indeed, between 1810 and 1820, Maine lost as many as 15,000 people. Sixty Vermont towns lost population during that decade as well. The population of 60 more Vermont towns stayed the same while the U.S. population grew 32%. When we examine Massachusetts, we can see that this state gained only 50,000 people from 1810-20, while Ohio gained five times as many. The Massachusetts Legislature tried to hold on to its citizens by passing a homestead act that gave settlers 100 acres of land for $5.

Even during the American Revolution, when John Adams set out to travel to Philadelphia, it was bitterly cold and there was a foot or more of snow covered the landscape which had blanketed Massachusetts from one end of the province to the other. Beneath the snow, after weeks of severe cold, the ground was frozen solid to a depth of two feet. Packed ice in the road made the journey very hazardous. In a letter to his wife, John Adams wrote:

“Indeed I feel not a little out of Humour, from Indisposition of Body. You know, I cannot pass a Spring, or fall, without an ill Turn — and I have had one these four or five Weeks — a Cold, as usual. Warm Weather, and a little Exercise, with a little Medicine, I suppose will cure me as usual. … Posterity! You will never know, how much it cost the present Generation, to preserve your Freedom! I hope you will make a good Use of it. If you do not, I shall repent in Heaven, that I ever took half the Pains to preserve it.”

On September 8th, 1816, Jefferson described the weather during the Year without a Summer in a letter to Albert Gallitan:

We have had the most extraordinary year of drought and cold ever known in the history of America. In June, instead of 3¾ inches, our average of rain for that month, we had only 1/3 of an inch; in August, instead of 9 1/6 inches our average, we had only 8/10 of an inch; and it still continues. The summer too has been as cold as a moderate winter. In every state North of this there has been frost in every month of the year; in this state we had none in June and July but those of August killed much corn over the mountains. The crop of corn through the Atlantic states will probably be less than 1/3 of an ordinary one, that of tobacco still less, and of mean quality.

It is Global Cooling – not Global Warming, that we should fear the most. While 1816 was the year we had a major volanic eruption, it also came during the Little Ice Age with Solar Minimum

Nov 28 2018

Thoughts from the book Scorpion Down


This post is based on information found in the book Scorpion Down written by Ed Offley and published in 2007. The book is based on Ed’s work conducted over almost a quarter century digging into government records and interviewing former navy NCO’s and Officers at all levels. He also intervened may others including former soviet military. Almost the entire book is fact and the parts that are not are hard to dispute because they are based on the over welling number of facts presented.

This paper is not about the Russian’s sinking the Scorpion with a torpedo on May 27, 1968 but of the revelations that came out of all that work of Offley that relate to finding that is what happened. Although he refers to Vietnam in the book his focus is the cover up of what happened to the Scorpion and why it was covered up so tightly. However I think it goes much deeper and this story relates indirectly to the conflict in Vietnam and why it took so long to get out.

Key facts:

  • Sometime likely as early as 1965 but for sure no later than early 1967 navy Chief Warrant Officer John Walker begins selling classified information to the Soviets, including radio cipher cards.
  • January 23 1968 The Seizure of the USS Pueblo by North Korean Forces including the INTACT KW-7, KLB-47, KWR-37 AND a KLB-47 encryption devices.
  • March 8, 1968 Soviet diesel-electric submarine K-129 a Project 629 strategic ballistic missile submarine is lost in the pacific.
  • May 27 1968 the sinking of the SSN Scorpion by Russian torpedo
  • May 20 1985 John Walker arrested and his activities of his spy ring uncovered over the next several years
  • December 26, 1991 after the collapse of the USSR some but not all of information related to all of the above become available from Russian and US sources.

Obviously the story starts with Walker who in his position in the navy’s Atlantic Submarine Force Headquarters message center who had access to radio cipher card which were used with the devices used to communicate with ships at sea including submarines. During this period the US Navy submarines and the Soviet Navy submarines were playing cat and mouse games with each other which included underwater maneuvering which in many cases caused collisions between the two subs. This is described in detail in the book.

It is very likely that the Soviets had the Koreans capture the Pueblo to get the encryption devices that were on board and we do know that within a few weeks of being captured those devices were in Russia.  The US military was not that worried about the loos since without the radio cipher cards they would be of only marginal use to the Russians. Had the navy know about Walker they would have realized how wrong they were since Walker had been supplying the Russians with the cards for years. But since they didn’t know the rest followed.

The sinking of the K-129 was probably the result of an encounter with a US submarine since the US knew where it went down and the Russians didn’t. The US CIA attempted to recover the K-129 from 16,000 feet down and did get part of it. The effort to recover the sub was named Project Azorian and it was partially successful. The Russians probably knew of the reason for the sinking because they had the radio cipher cards and the matching devices.

Two months later the Scorpion is torpedoed and sunk probably in retaliation for the Russian loss of the K-129. The US knew it was a torpedo since they had hydrophone readings that proved it. Offley interviewed an Ocean Systems Technician (analyst) that saw the actual Top Secret Sound Surveillance System (Sosus) tape in training and it clearly showed an underwater dog fight between the Scorpion and a soviet Echo-II nuclear submarine including the torpedo trace as it tracked the Scorpion and the hit on her that sank her. There is some evidence that the Scorpion also fired a torpedo and the Soviet sub was hit but didn’t sink. There are pictures and discerptions of an Echo-II sub being repaired and towed back to Russia in the area of the dog fight.

Now if you are interested in the story read the book it is worth reading. But my point to writing this is that since the Soviets had the encryption devices and the radio cipher cards during the period from just after TET in Vietnam through the end of that conflict and the Russians were the primary supports of the North Vietnamese — did the Russians keep the North Vietnamese informed of US activities such that the Vietnamese knew how badly we wanted out and that they had nothing to lose by stalling as long as they could? For the Soviets could intercept and decode all messages sent on the devices that they had captured on the Pueblo.

 

Cross section of Skipjack class nuclear submarine

Skipjack-class submarine drawing: 1. Sonar arrays 2. Torpedo room 3. Operations compartment 4. Reactor compartment 5. Auxiliary machinery space 6. Engine room

 

Nov 28 2018

Scientists Want to Synthetically Create a Volcanic Winter – Are they Just Nuts?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Nov 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Believe it or not, pretend Scientists are actuall proposing to create a synthetic Volcanic Winter by spraying sun-dimming chemicals into the Earth’s atmosphere the same as a volcanoe when it erupts. These pretend research scientists at Harvard and Yale universities have published in the journal Environmental Research Letters proposing to inject an aerosol (SAI) to reduce the rate of global warming. They have propsed a completely unproven attempt to alter the planet using a technique involving spraying large amounts of sulfate particles into the Earth’s lower stratosphere at altitudes as high as 12 miles. They argue to deliver the sulfates with specially designed high-altitude aircraft, balloons or large naval-style guns. To accomplish this they want $3.5 billion, with annual costs of $2.25 billion a year over.

This is exactly as the chemtrail conspiracy theory which is based on the belief that long-lasting condensation trails are “chemtrails” consisting of chemical or biological agents are left in the sky by high-flying aircraft that are sprayed for undisclosed reasons. It seems that the pretend scientists have taken the chemtrail theories to a new level. They say they are only dimming the sun. Guess they have no clue about weather history and volcanic winters, Guess shattering 150 year cold records for thanksgiving is still too warm for these people.

Climate Change is not just simply that there is a unusual cold storm or heat wave. Yet these people harp on each individual event as proof of their theory. Real climate change has to do with shifting patterns of weather and the progressive long-term trend. Their forecasts are based upon assuming whatever trend is in motion will remain in motion. That is a fatal flaw in analysis if we are talking about markets or weather. They really need to understand that there are cycles to start with