Tag Archives: TTIP

Oct 2 2017

Diversification – Smart or Dumb?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Oct 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

WorldIntRates-2012

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Do you believe in portfolio diversification?

ANSWER: No not really. I see no point in putting money in something you know will be a loss. Diversification within a sector is one thing. But buying government bonds when rates are at a 5,000 year low and governments are in trouble around the world, I just see as really stupid.

Once you understand how our global model works, you can see the trend unfolding in a numerous instruments that therefore confirms the trading direction. For example, we warned that gold had made an important high and would crash from 2011 for at least 3 years minimum. At the same time, we warned that the Dow would breakout to new highs. Barrons reported that forecast and did not believe that we would be correct. Both the high in gold and the breakout in the Dow were connected. Each confirmed the other among a host of other relationships.

What is impossible is trying to forecast just gold or the Dow in isolation relying upon fundamentals, which always prove to be worthless. Take the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis of 1998. The problem began in Russia and investments there collapsed but you could not get out at any price. They began selling assets everywhere else in the USA to Japan. This became a liquidity crisis that spread into a contagion. You could look at all of the fundamentals that said nothing should be happening in Japan. That led to massive losses in Japan that were contrary to fundamental analysis.

Everything is interconnected. Diversification is for people who cannot forecast so they just hope to stay ahead of the game. Asset Allocation has to be done smartly. You need some cash and those who will want some bonds v equities simply need to stay short-term and away from issues that will be a problem.

Oct 2 2017

Cryptocurrencies


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong Economics 101

Re-Posted Oct 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, do you think any crypto currency will survive?

ANSWER: No. We are looking at central banks and even the Chinese government is moving to create a Cryptocurrencies. There is no question that we will be looking at this is the next evolutionary step forward.

However, what I have been warning about is the public v private issue. Governments are hunting money everywhere. There is just NO POSSIBLE WAY they will allow private Cryptocurrencies  to circumvent their control and taxation.

Oct 2 2017

Marxism/Socialism Is On the Decline


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

RE-Posted Oct 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

I have warned that we are in a period where SOCIALISM is collapsing – not CAPITALISM. The distinction is manifest in rising retirement ages, reduction in social benefits, and rising taxation. This is also evident in politics. The Democrats really have no face to put forward as their leader. Hillary lost and even Elizabeth Warren is way out of touch for the average American.

Nevertheless, we are seeing this trend where socialists in politics are in a major decline. The Democratic Party in the USA has been declining ever since FDR won the first election in 1932. Each time the Democrats win, it has been with lower highs and the declines are always making lower lows. Looking at the map of Democratic states with governors, it is shocking to say the least. This is why the press is fighting so hard against Trump and the Democrats are desperate to keep the proposition that Hillary should be president and was prevented only by the Russians. Of course, there is no allegation that any of the emails released from the Democrats were forged. So the info was real regardless of who hacked the Democrats.

Looking around the world we see the same trend, In Germany, the SPD is losing seats. Everywhere we look, Socialist parties are on the decline. Der Spiegel published an article highlighting the same same we have been forecasting  that there is a decline of socialist parties in Europe as well. Der Spiegel noted that even a strong socialist candidate in Austria still struggles with the baggage of the “old, sclerotic social democracy.”

We have tagged this past year as the Year from Political Hell. We have witnessed BREXIT, the election of Trump, and the decline of Democrats throughout the USA. In Germany, the socialists were part of the government in 10 out of the 15 countries within the European Union (EU). Der Spiegel suggested that there was a real chance that German Social Democrats will no longer be part of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition following the German vote. The AfD has been rising and soared a major victory winning seats for the first time illustrating the shift to the right.

We are witnessing the same trend in Italy and this too could be an upset in early 2018. If Italy turns away from the socialists, then center-left parties could collapse and hold only 6 EU member states out of 28. That means the socialists would be reduced to the periphery: Malta, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Even the left-wing Syriza alliance in Greece has proved to be a joke failing to do anything for Greece whatsoever.

In the Netherlands, the Labor Party captured only 5.7% of votes in the last election. French Socialist Party candidate won only 6.4% of the vote, and his party went on to receive a miserable 9.5 percent of the vote in parliamentary elections a short time later. In Poland, the Social Democrats lost everything and no long hold even a single seat. In Norway, the Labour Party lost to the conservatives. The only place where the socialists gained was in Britain. There the Marxist/Socialist Jeremy Corbyn won among the youth with promises that could never be kept.

All of this warns that society is turning more to the right because the socialists have reduced economic growth, jobs, and the living standards by raising taxes. The words of King Oscar II of Sweden seem to be coming true.

Oct 1 2017

Spain Reveals EU Does Not Stand For Human Rights & Making Revolution Inevitable


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Oct 1, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Spanish state police violence have turned against the people showing that they are clearly still a fascist reign supported by troops. Riot officers have been firing rubber bullets at crowds protesting in a Barcelona street, sending people running for cover. Countless are injured. This demonstrates that Spain is not a place for investment and one should be very cautious about even buying a house in Spain after this display of ruthless authoritarianism. The  Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy has demonstrated he is a fascist and this is EXACTLY the type of person that caused the American Revolution.

We should all take pause and read just the first two paragraphs of Thomas Jefferson’s Declaration of Independence. The King sent a whole army to his house to kill him for writing these words. He was warned the army was coming and told to flee into the hills which he did. I fully disagree with Donald Trump for supporting Rajoy. That has been a total disgrace and Trump needs to study history.

The suppression of the vote will now only turn even those who were on the side stand against the government. In war, you kill someone’s father. Their family will remember for generations. Spain has just confirmed that revolution and civil war will be inevitable. Canada allowed two referendum votes to separate for Quebec and Britain allowed Scotland to vote. It is a fundamental human right to overthrow any government when it becomes oppressive. Rajoy is a disgrace to the EU and Brussels is a disgrace for shutting down the vote of the people.

When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bonds which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

Oct 1 2017

How to Save the Planet With Pushing a Button


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

RE-Posted Oct 1, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

I have previous told the story about attending a dinner in Washington and being seated with the entire Environmental group. It was a Washington elite political dinner and because I attended with my friend Dick Fox who was Chairman of Temple University and I was an adviser to the University, whoever it was that made the seating arrangements for these tables of 10  seated us with the environmental groups. This was in the mid-90s. Dick was the one who kept trying to drag the truth out and there it came. These were the heads of the top three environmental organizations. They admitted that the real goal was to reduce human population by making it difficult to expand and build houses. Labeling everything wetlands would reduce the ability to expand housing and thus shrink the population. When Dick got them to admit that, he moved in for the bottom-line question and asked: “So who’s grandchild are you trying to prevent from being born? Your’s or mine?”

Well now this is the constantly reappearing theme with both the environmentalists and the Global Warming crown. The Swedish Lund university has come out with a list with “live options” that can rescue the climate and save the world. The number one recommendation with the biggest impact is to stop having babies. I previously wrote how Canada wanted to solve the problem by having companies lay off workers and thus fewer people driving cars every day.

Obviously a war will do were we kill 50% of the population to keep with their reasoning. We should ask Rocketman to please eliminate 50% of the world population and he will be the hero of the environmentalists and Global Warming Crowd. It would be so nice if they volunteered to be the first casualties. Then perhaps they can lead the way for the rest of us.

So please can you push that button but target a few universities first? Perhaps we can save the planet that way

Oct 1 2017

Taxing Income Before Your Earn It


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis

RE-Posted Oct 1, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hello Martin;

I trust you and the state of Florida are healthy, hurricane or not.

As to the German VAT pre-pay system, Ontario, Canada tax laws shocked me nearly 30 years ago with income tax on accounts receivable, whether collected or not.

I was 22 years old when the accountant came to review my 1st year as a proprietor. He stated that even though one of my customers had not paid his account I was to pay income tax on that amount. But the amount owing to me was nearly 20% of my annual sales! He told me if I did not receive the customers payment I could write that off next year. I said if that guy doesn’t pay there won’t be a next year.

So of course I changed my gross sales. The bastards force people to break the law.

Get used to it Germany, the gopher-ment just keep digging.

Thank you sir, this is the best education for $14.99/month. ($18.56 CAD);

RH

REPLY: Yes. This is exactly as Adam Smith wrote. Government is always the crazy spendthrift and spend money before they get it so they try to treat the people the same way. In the USA, if you make $100,000 trading and pay the tax and then lose the $100,000 the following year, you cannot write off the whole loss. Government and taxes are just unrealistic because of their greed.

Sep 30 2017

Rajoy Shuts Down Airspace & Orders Google to Stop Assisting Separatists


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Sep 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy who is becoming a disgrace to the image of a free society and is illustrating what governments do in a Private Wave – they become authoritarian whenever they lose power. Rajoy has gone way too far showing the world that Spain is itself a country risk for there is no human right or standard of international law. The Catalan supporters are now occupying poll points to protect their right to vote, while Rajoy has now blocked airspace over Barcelona as he wants to prevent the referendum in Catalonia by all means.

Rajoy had his puppet Spanish Supreme Court order that Google had to delete an app that had been used by the operators of the referendum to communicate with each other. The corrupt Spanish court ruled that the “On Votar 1-Oct” application on the Google Play smartphone app shop violated the ban imposed by Spain to conduct the referendum. Rajoy is totally out of control and is illustrating everything that is wrong about the EU and how it claims to stand for human right with the refugees but crushes anyone Europe who disagrees with the politic elite.

The Spanish Supreme Court pretends that the constitution does not allow for separation. So if the constitution also said you had to kill you first born in Biblical tradition, would that also be constitutional simply because it is written there? No constitution can mandate that the people are not allow the change the constitution. Even in the USA, there are constitutional amendments. Income tax was forbidden, but the majority agreed with Karl Marx and then amended the constitution in 1913. They were horrified at the Russian revolution following Marx 4 years later, but it was too late. Human rights suddenly did not include the right to be treated the same simply because you possessed more than your neighbor.

The vote will take place in a total of 2,155 polling stations. The government has shut down airspace to prevent others from flying into Barcelona to join the protests.

The Rajoy’s judiciary has also initiated investigations against more than 700 Catalan mayors, who support the independence referendum. The Regional Parliament had passed a bill in Barcelona in early September, which freed the way for the popular decision. The government in Barcelona had originally declared that if the independence won a majority, they would decline independence in 48 hours.

Canada allowed Quebec to vote of separatism TWICE. Even Britain allowed Scotland to vote on separation from the UK. Spain is showing the world that it is still a fascist state true to heart – not a democratic state. This raises serious concerns about foreign investment into Spain. If the government changes its position, you will find that country risk overpowers investment opportunity. BEWARE!

This is an extremely important event for the whole world. This is revealing the TRUE nature of the EU, and we must understand, this political infection is spreading like a disease worldwide. This is what happens in a Private Wave when government loses power – they become more authoritarian.

Categories: Politics, SPAIN
Sep 30 2017

2015.75 was Just the Beginning


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Sep 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Mr Armstrong

I have not forgotten when I saw the reportage about you on TV when you announced that in October 2015 will start the big economic collapse. do you think that that date was bit early or really there is some thing happened?

Thank you very much Mr Martin.

I’m one of your fans.
Have a nice day.
I hope to read you soon.

ANSWER: No, October 2015 was spot on. What you have to understand is this is really a complete process. That is the day Russia invaded Syria and that I said would mean that Syria would become a key focal point. Ever since we have the Refugee Crisis that has turned Europe decisively lower and changed politics – i.e. BREXIT, Barcelona, Poland, Hungary, Sweden, Netherlands all the way to Merkel and the immediate election where she has been significantly weakened.

Trump Sworn In

Then do not forget we had Trump elected, which our computer also forecast. That turning point also marked the change in trend in interest rates. The Fed raised rates for the first time after that target in 2015.

We are looking at an economic crash – not a market crash. As government implodes with the Pension Crisis, capital shifts from public assets to private. This is a process that is not instantaneous, it is an ongoing event that will worsen now into 2020 and it will not end until this Private Wave peaks in 2032.

Sep 29 2017

Britain to be Subordinate to European High Court Even After 2019


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Sep 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Prime Minister Teresa May has walked into a hornet’s nest. By trying to drag out BREXIT into 2021 or beyond, the European Parliament has responded that it is set to demand that Britain will have to still be subject to all EU regulations and be subordinate to the European Court. That means trading in London will be seriously harmed by the anti-short selling policies of the EU and the ban on selling government bonds short.

Sep 29 2017

BREXIT – Trump – Now Barcelona


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Sep 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I am the who did not believe you when you came to Barcelona and said that there would be a separatist movement. The polls at that time showed only a 15% support. I still read and followed you I suppose to see if you would be wrong. I must say, your computer has shown us that the world is predictable even in politics. It got Brexit, Trump and Barcelona all correct. I suppose we will see the break up of the EU and as you said eventually the USA. Is your computer proving that the future can be determined because humans respond to the same economic conditions?

PQ

ANSWER: Yes. I find it interesting that there were a number of people who doubted that Catalonia would rise up. Everyone I did an interview with was also skeptical. The issue has been that governments are always the same. They will pursue their own self-interest no matter what. The saying POWER CORRUPTS but ABSOLUTE POWER CORRUPTS ABSOLUTELY is proven every day that passes into history. I agree with Thrasymachus, political governments are always the same in the end.

Keep in mind that there is a huge separation between those who work in departments of governments such a central banks and sovereign wealth funds. They are typically on the opposite side of the table from the politicians. When I talk about government and its self-interest, I am referring to the political side and that far too often includes the prosecution and court systems. It has been the political side that constantly changes laws to try to manipulate society and the central banks.