Protest breakout in Naples after the government claimed that 2,000 have COVID-19 so they may lock down the region for 40 days and have imposed a curfew. These lockdowns have not stopped the virus but instead, prolong it. We see civil unrest rising around the world and this may lead to even overthrowing governments in many places.
Melbourne is defining the Madman of Australia who is a disgrace to the very idea of a free society. Andrews stands as a symbol of tyranny gone completely mad. In the name of protecting people, it has destroyed their jobs, their future, and Australia is already saying that international travel will be blocked for perhaps another year. Indeed, international travel is quickly becoming a fantasy perhaps even into 2022.
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The riots in Rome have become intense. You would reason that any elected politician would think twice about imposing lockdowns after destroying an unbelievable number of jobs and small businesses that are vital in Italy and also counted on tourism which is non-existent anymore. Something is just not right. This is not the way elected governments have acted in the past.
A word from inside sources in Rome suggests that the governments in Europe are concerned about what happens if Trump wins. They are concerned that he is being viewed as a man of the people in contrast to the extreme draconian actions in Europe. A Trump victory, they fear, may inspire Europeans to demand freedom.
Business confidence in Europe is in crash mode. Over half of Europe’s small firms fear for survival, survey finds. They seem to be correct. This Great Reset is designed to crush the economy and rebuilding it if “green” from the bottom. They label anything that dares to say the obvious as a “conspiracy theory” so they need not answer any of this. A “conspiracy theory” was something that was not remotely possible and was way out there beyond even alien abductions. Here, we need only take what they are saying and ask are politicians this stupid that they cannot see what they are doing to the average person?
The authoritative actions of politicians and the forced denial of human rights are far worse than if we were invaded by a foreign power. Khrushchev was correct, but it is not the lower classes doing this, it is the academics in league with the Big Tech companies offering technology to track every person to prevent any possible uprising in the future.
QUESTION: Hi AE….think I finally get your message about money supply vs inflation. But aren’t we just dealing with a difference of semantics? If the gov’t prints endless amounts of currency, that HAS to. at some point, impact prices etc. which in turn, eventually leads to a collapse in confidence. (Savers can’t afford to buy anything.) What am I missing here?
HS
ANSWER: It’s a question of what comes first – the chicken or the egg. First, we have the collapse in tangible assets and people will then hoard their money and spend less fearing the future. The revenue declines for governments which then forces the government to create more which use to be debasement before paper money, and today we have debt which can be posted as collateral to even trade which is now also money that pays interest as it first began during the American Civil War.
The classic definition of hyperinflation is taken from the 1956 work by Phillip Cagan who wrote The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation. Cagan defined a hyperinflationary episode as beginning in the month that the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50%, and ends when it drops below 50% per month. This is the standard definition.
The general population keeps the bulk of their wealth in non-monetary assets primarily real estate which made the 2007-2009 financial crisis far more serious than a stock market crash.
The higher middle-class population outside the USA view monetary amounts, not in terms of the local currency but more so in dollars taking an international perspective. Only Americans tend to be myopic and see the world all in dollars. That’s why you constantly see these people yell the dollar will crash without ever looking outside the USA even once.
The international view of assets in dollars is also a direct result of not just the fact that the USA is the largest core economy, but the dollar is the reserve currency of the world BECAUSE there are also no restrictions on issuing debt in dollars in foreign countries imposed by the USA, and the fact that the US dollar has never been canceled. You can still spend a $5 bill from 1861.
While the analysis by academics has focused on classifying hyperinflation, they seem to lack any understanding of the real causes of all hyperinflations attributing them to have been caused by government budget deficits financed by currency creation. Peter Bernholz analyzed 29 hyperinflations (following Cagan’s definition) and concluded that at least 25 of them took place because of money creation.
These academics have also wrongly assumed that the necessary condition for hyperinflation is the use of paper money. They obviously lack any understanding of the monetary system pre-1700 when coins were gold or silver coins. The idea that hyperinflations in history are confined to paper money has seriously harmed the entire understanding of the mechanism behind hyperinflation. They see to have ZERO understanding of the history of coinage which provides a definitive historical record.
They will typically point to the French hyperinflation of 1789–1796 and claim that it took place after the introduction of a non-convertible paper currency, the assignat. They have for more than 100 years looked at this idea that money has to be commodity-based. They never apply that theory as to how Germany, Japan, and China have all risen to the top without gold and Russia, rich in gold, has languished economically.
Perhaps it simply takes a trader to see how hyperinflation even begins well in advance. Hoover explained how capital acted in 1931 rushing from one currency to the next as nation after nation defaulted, but any professional trader who was on a dealing desk in 2010 when Greece turned to the IMF for help saw exactly the same patterns. When they drew first blood with the collapse of Greece, they turned and asked: Who is next? They started selling Portugal, Spain, Italy and were even moving against France. That is how a REAL financial contagion operates.
Historically, it is NOT that people lose confidence in the money because the government is simply creating more! It is the collapse in the CONFIDENCE in the economy first (absent war), and then this migrates to the CONFIDENCE in government collapsing. This has historically led to hoarding when the money is just coins or converting to other currencies (capital flight) which has been paper (i.e. Germany & France). It is the sequence that then leads to forcing the government to enter a death spiral where they create money to try to maintain their existence. The government will typically then collapse.
This is the same problem with the myth about interest rates. The claim is that rising interest rates are BEARISH. All they remember is the tail-end. The rates rise and the market declines. When you look at it objectively, markets rally with rising interest rates. Just look at this entire rally.
The ECB cut rates to negative in 2014. When we look at the Dax in Price and in dollars, the peak was March 2015. The lower interest rates have completely FAILED to “stimulate” the economy as has been the great expansion of the money supply.
This absurdity that simply increasing the money supply will cause inflation is the typical sales pitch for the last 50 years. If gold truly rallied to keep pace with inflation, then since 1980, it should be trading at the $12,000+ level. OBVIOUSLY, there is something else going on. This is where it takes a global perspective to understand when the breakout will come and precisely when will the CONFIDENCE shift from hoarding cash to spending it because it will be worth even less next month.
QUESTION: Why are bankers never prosecuted? The New York courts are not trustworthy. Can you explain why this is allowed to go one all the time?
SK
ANSWER: It is very simple and the shareholders are the ones who are being defrauded. The banks can routinely engage in fraud all they want. The individuals are NEVER prosecuted because the government knows they will not get huge fines from an individual. The bank is fined and pays vast amounts of money, but the bankers themselves are never prosecuted. It is raw corruption. The very same bankers go on to commit the very next crime. They get bonuses for the money they make, and if caught, they keep the bonus and the shareholders pay the fine.
I personally would NEVER recommend a bank stock for that reason. The bonuses were paid out even during the 2007-2009 crisis. The S&P 500 Financial Index just retest the 2007 high compared to the rest of the market. The corruption between the courts, the government, and the banks is starting to wear very thin.
QUESTION #1: If China is held liable for the virus damage then why could we not void all the bonds they hold as a payment for their damage to our economy? That would free up some debt and be a stimulus as well it would seem to me. The CCP is working every day to bring down the USA and this release of a virus that has crushed our economy. Yes, this is part of a global cabal for sure.
MTB
ANSWER#1: If the US, Europe, or Canada ever did that, they will forfeit their credit standing and nobody else will ever trust them again.
QUESTION #2: Why are you pro-Republican and anti-Democrat?
LM
ANSWER #2: I understand it may come off that way, but I do not believe this is what you would remotely call a standard Republican v Democrat election. Don’t forget, when Trump was first elected, even the career Republicans were against him. Remember Lyndsey Grahm smashing his phone and John McCain saying he did not want Trump at his funeral. I have dealt with Washington for a long time. When Reagan was elected, he was just a state governor with no Federal experience. They told me back then that they were not happy but they would train him. Traditionally, they DO NOT like outsiders. It has ALWAYS been that way.
I do not see this as a normal election. I think Biden is mentally not all there. They want someone who is NOT hands-on like Trump. The bureaucrats want to run the government and the president just gets in the way. I see Biden as the same a Bush, Jr. who had no clue what Cheney was doing. You do not see him running around giving speeches even like Obama. Biden is a place-holder. My fear is that this Great Reset is a real agenda and they are trying to take over the United States. Why do you think all the Tech companies are blocking anything negative about Biden? They have been promised a piece of the action when the digital currency is introduced. The Democrats have already put in legislation to create the digital dollar. Perhaps you have no problem getting a Digital Passport to be able to travel anywhere. They will be coming. This will be just like the Nazis – Papers Please! Social Media tycoons have censored Trump 65 times – Biden ZERO!
I know many of these people. They have done everything they could possibly do to discredit me because we were the largest institutional adviser in the world. They are scared to death of that. Our computer writes over 1,000 reports every day on every instrument around the globe. Nobody covers the world like this and nobody correlates the world which allows us to see a tsunami coming which is not domestic in origin.
I am independent. I am not a fan of career politicians regardless of their party. I have worked on both sides of the aisle. I have seen politics close up.
COMMENT #3: Sir,
It’s interesting. My practice had a board meeting. There were 14 people gathered around a group of desks arranged in a circle. Of the 14 only 4 were wearing masks. The younger partners.
When dealing with patients, I take my mask off and allow my patients to do so as well. I tell them that they know the risks via the TV and to do what they want. Interestingly, the at-risk really old and immune compromised keep their masks on. Only 3 patients and family kept theirs on. The rest are relieved to take them off. The 3 were Biden supporters. I asked.
You ever have a moment in your life where you did something because you were caught up in the moment, like-minded people around you? Reinforced by the echo chamber of the message repeatedly playing. Later you think, damn that was stupid. These were typical events when you were young and dumb. I think people are caught up in the moment and can’t see beyond. As my First Sergeant use to say, “The masses are asses. “
A lot of people can’t think for themselves nor evaluate data well or both. I’m not an expert but at least I question and try. And it’s not just individuals but groups as well. What’s the difference between Australians and Americans? They were caught but we weren’t. I think this translates to the difference between national character as well.
Keep up the good work
DK
REPLY #3: You are correct. I see people driving alone even with masks on. Even the box I bought of masks states plainly these masks “do not eliminate exposure to the risk of any disease or infection.” Yet if you do not have one, they tackle you in Australia, the third time without one you go to prison in France, and you will get beaten in many other parts of the world without one. It really has become insane.
QUESTION #4: Yesterday where you talking about a big reset in the economy, on the first hand here in Europe there Europe states are redoing all present dept to perpetual bonds.
It sounds very nice but there are a few things bothering me. What will the consequences be for central banks, pensions funds, and others sitting with those bonds? If they have a return rate of 0% or lower are the value in the practice zero or negative. Unless it’s possible to force the state to redeem those in the future. Overtime will they have no value at all because inflation will destroy them.
If Europe and the world will go over to a two monetary system with digital currencies, are they going to have a two monetary system?
If it should work over the whole world could it be a problem to run this currency on their own servers, or will they be forced to use the new blockchain infrastructure being built now? If they move swift and smart should it be possible to do it to a new global currency? It will be very hard for other states to stop it if it’s backed up of states, and if they are first and are grown big will block a lot of other actors.
Are there other realistic ways to destroy money or debt? If I recall right has Argentina been doing default. How many years did it take for the country to come into world society again? What were the consequences for ordinary people? You have both poor middle-class and rich without doing a definition of what you need to earn or own to be in each group.
I have another issue as well. Regarding trading between the Western and Asia.
Are we not shooting our self in the foot there? You have been traveling a lot in Asia I have been there some as well. I’m always impressed by how hard people are working and educate them self. A high educated people are in today’s world hardcore as I see it. There should we look at our own schools and education system, is it possible to compete with it? I know it’s a good chance Asia and China will take over. It’s not that strange they got the people and people are well educated that’s not stoppable, we have to adapt. If we do not handle our cards well here will we need to sell cheap sun cars to the Chinese when they are doing a holiday?
We have a third issue as well.
No matter what they think is good or bad. Chinese Japanese cultures are very old. Actually much older than the Roman imperial and it has lasted for a much longer time. Those cultures and their way of solving problems over centuries must have some benefit other ways should they not survive for so long time. As I understand it is just Xi Ping the last emperor in a long row, even if it’s under the “communist” flag, Chinese is not communist now if it not suit there political purposes. You have been there and I’m sure you have seen a lot of sides of the country.
Both countries imperials and companies has it up and downs.
Regards
BK
ANSWER #4: The central banks holding the debt will simply become part of their capitalization. I have been in meetings with Central Bankers and pointed out the problem with pension funds already even at 1%. I have explained that they will have to provide some yield in return at least 3% by our calculations in exchange for making them perpetual. They will not default outright like Argentina. Politically that would be disastrous internationally. Keep in mind, even these perpetual bonds will eventually be traded just like the British Consols.
As far as China is concerned, there seems to be just this desperate need to have an enemy. They get to blame the COVID mess on China, despite the fact that it has been the reaction in the West that is the crisis – not China. I explained from the outset this was a natural virus and not a biological weapon for the kill ratio was too low. It may have been created in a lab, but it was still in the category of a natural virus rather than a weapon. That rules out any deliberate attack by China.
Your third question needs to be corrected. The first unified Chinese coinage began only about 240BC. Prior to that, there were the Waring State issues like knives. The Roman Imperial did not begin until 27BC, which is correct. However, the Roman Republic began with bronze coinage much earlier. Their first silver coinage appeared in 280BC which was comparable to the Greek weight system – a didrachm.
That issue aside, the primary difference is that Western culture thinks in a straight line. Asian culture understands everything is a cycle. That is a major difference.
COMMENT: Hi Martin,
I’m in Canada and we just got back from a trip to the USA. I just read your post “New Bill Gives Immunity to Military Over Australians During Emergencies & Canada Internment Camps”.
They do indeed have camps for us! But they aren’t JUST for international travelers who don’t have a place to quarantine. I received a form from customs officers that say if we violate any part of the quarantine measures we will be transferred “to a quarantine facility”. I took screenshots of the form if you would like to share with others, I just don’t know how to send you the photos.
Thanks!
REPLY: Thank you. We have a lot of Canadians who need to know.
In New Zealand, you can see this press interview is extremely hostile and she shuts down any mention that the death rate of COVID-19 is not greater than other viruses which she will not allow him to say and calls it “rubbish” proving she is by no means a real journalist. Once upon a time, the press was our defenders. Now, they are a wholesale part of the effort to deny our freedoms.Categories:Press
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