NBC Nibbles Carefully During Report on Fall Harvest Inflation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

In this brief segment on fall harvest inflation, NBC notes consumer prices for food stuffs continue increasing regardless of the economic action by the Biden administration. The reason is very simple and is outlined within the segment by Jacob Goebbert, the Goebbert’s farm general manager.  WATCH:

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The current inflation is embedded in the cost of products, because it’s a supply side issue.

Financial “experts” can shout all day long about the fiscal policy (spending) being the origin of inflation (ie. demand side), they’re wrong.  Our current inflation cycle, most notably evident within massive increases in food prices, is a supply side issue created by the increased energy costs.  Full stop.  It’s a Biden policy outcome.

Social Security Administration Announces 2023 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) at 8.7 Percent, Biggest Inflation Driven Increase Since Jimmy Carter Era


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

Joe Biden’s economic and energy policies have resulted in another record matching former President Jimmy Carter.  The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced an inflation driven increase in SAA benefits of 8.7% beginning in January 2023.  This is the largest cost of living adjustment in 40 years.

(Social Security Administration) – Approximately 70 million Americans will see a 8.7% increase in their Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments in 2023. On average, Social Security benefits will increase by more than $140 per month starting in January.

Federal benefit rates increase when the cost-of-living rises, as measured by the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index (CPI-W). The CPI-W rises when inflation increases, leading to a higher cost-of-living. This change means prices for goods and services, on average, are higher. The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) helps to offset these costs.

We will mail COLA notices throughout the month of December to retirement, survivors, and disability beneficiaries, SSI recipients, and representative payees. But if you want to know your new benefit amount sooner, you can securely obtain your Social Security COLA notice online using the Message Center in your personal my Social Security account. You can access this information in early December, prior to receiving the mailed notice. Benefit amounts will not be available before December. Since you will receive the COLA notice online or in the mail, you don’t need to contact us to get your new benefit amount.

If you prefer to access your COLA notice online and not receive the mailed notice, you can log in to your personal my Social Security account to opt out by changing your Preferences in the Message Center. You can update your preferences to opt out of the mailed COLA notice, and any other notices that are available online. Did you know you can receive a text or email alert when there is a new message waiting for you? That way, you always know when we have something important for you – like your COLA notice. If you don’t have an account yet, you must create one by November 15, 2022 to receive the 2023 COLA notice online. (more)

A 25% increase in the rate for those who qualify for federal food stamp assistance….

An 8.7% increase in the rate for those who qualify for Social Security benefits….

Meanwhile real wages decreased 3.8% in September and the borders are wide open for cheap labor to pour in.

September Consumer Price Index Shows Inflation Continuing to Rise More Than Expected, Fed Raising Rates Having No Impact Because it is NOT Demand Side Inflation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) today [DATA HERE].  The financial and business media call the continued rise of consumer inflation “unexpected,” however, the results are not a surprise to those who are not pretending.

This CNBC headline highlights the economic pretense still entrenched: “Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes.”  Those who are not pretending fully understand the economic dynamic, but you will not find reality expressed by the mainstream media.

FED rate hikes can only impact the demand side of the inflation issue. U.S (and global) inflation is NOT the result of excess demand. It has not been driven by demand for over a year.  The root cause of inflation is on the supply side. That root is grounded in the energy policy making everything entering the marketplace more expensive.

The historic rise in energy prices; the result of Joe Biden’s specific energy policy to limit oil, gas and coal as energy resources; are what have driven inflation throughout the economy.  The monetary policy (Fed policy) continues to pretend this dynamic does not exist.  The FED is trying to support the political policy, but the bloom is off the ruse.

Overall inflation increased 0.4% in September, leading to a result of 8.2% year over year.  Food and energy prices continue driving inflation, additionally core inflation (everything except food and energy) continues to be driven by the originating issue of extreme energy costs.

Everything costs more because energy costs more.  That is the reality of this inflation issue.

[Modified Table-1, removing the noise]

(CNBC) […] “The Federal Reserve has made it very clear they’re committed to price stability, they’re committed to reducing the inflationary pressures,” said Michelle Meyer, chief U.S. economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute. “The more inflation comes in above expectations, the more they’re going to have to prove that commitment, which means higher interest rates and cooling in the underlying economy.”

Another large jump in food prices boosted the headline number. The food index rose 0.8% for the month, the same as August, and was up 11.2% from a year ago.

That increase helped offset a 2.1% decline in energy prices that included a 4.9% drop in gasoline. Energy prices have moved higher in October, with the price of regular gasoline at the pump nearly 20 cents higher than a month ago, according to AAA.

Closely watched shelter costs, which make up about one-third of CPI, rose 0.7% and are up 6.6% from a year ago. Transportation services also showed a big bump, increasing 1.9% on the month and 14.6% on an annual basis. Medical care services costs rose 1% in September.

The rising costs meant more bad news for workers, whose average hourly earnings declined 0.1% for the month on an inflation-adjusted basis and are off 3% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS release.  Inflation is rising despite aggressive Federal Reserve efforts to get price increases under control. (more)

I feel like we are living in a parallel universe, where this grand game of pretense continues.

Every financial pundit knows the root cause of inflation is Joe Biden’s energy policy, yet they maintain the lies in order to protect the regime.

Raising interest rates in a supply side inflation economy only does one thing, it makes the economy contract faster.  The only reason to intentionally shrink the economy is to try and reduce the demand for energy resources as part of the “transition to a green economy.”  Together, the Biden administration and Federal Reserve are trying to lower economic output to meet a lowered amount of energy being produced.  That is the reality of our situation.

They are destroying the working and middle class in order to chase their climate change agenda.  These people must be removed from power.

Real Average Hourly Wages Continue to Decline as Inflation Destroys Economy and Now Hours Worked is Contracting


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the September wage report [DATA HERE] delivering worse economic news for workers.

Real wages are dropping at a historic rate as inflation continues to rise and as a result wages buy less.

[BLS] “Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2021 to September 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.8-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.” (link)

REAL WAGE CHART:

As the Biden economic/energy policy and Federal Reserve monetary policy merge together, the economy shrinks.  As the economy shrinks, fewer goods and services are purchased.  As less consumer goods are purchased, employment hours drop.  As employment hours drop, wages decline.

Declining wages combined with increased inflation forms the perfect storm against middle-class and working-class families.  This dynamic means lowered income and higher prices for essential goods and services like food, fuel, energy and housing.  It’s not difficult to see why this is happening.

The declining wage rates, and the more substantive drop in real wage rates due to massive inflation, are specifically hitting the lower tier of the working class harder.  Yet despite this, Biden is intent on importing even more economic migrants to put even more downward pressure on wages for the working class.

These are very real outcomes of policy.  Working class Blacks and Latinos will feel this even more, yet this is the special interest group that Democrats claim to support.  The reality is exactly opposite from the narrative sold by the Biden administration.

The Democrats know this. These outcomes are not accidental; they are a feature not a flaw in their policy.  This is why they need to keep spending to retain the ruse.

There’s no way around this.  Despite the pundit and financial class selling a counter-narrative, home prices will crash, and unemployment will go up.  I know this is directly against the current talking points, but the statistical reality is clear.

CTH was the first place who said a year ago that home sales will plummet, that is starting to happen right now.  There’s no way for it not to happen, the big picture tells us why.

Biden authorizes expanded spying on American citizens


One America News Network Published originally on Rumble on October 12, 2022 

The White House has quietly issued an order that would remove rules preventing the government from spying on American citizens. One America’s Chief White House correspondent Chanel Rion has more from the White House.

Noncitizens Encouraged to Vote


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Oct 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

This is yet another reason why voter identification is crucial. We show identification at the airport, DMV, and even at the doctor’s office. There is absolutely no reason that we should not prove our citizenship via identification when we vote on policies that impact the direction of our country. Democratic Secretary of State Jena Griswold’s office “accidentally” sent 30,000 registration notices to noncitizens.

It just so happens that they sent out the registration notices in both English and Spanish. Griswold swears it was a mistake and that they will contact those who mistakenly received the notices. However, would they be turned away from the booths on election day?

Colorado, and at least 18 other states, issue driver’s licenses to non-citizens. Colorado also uses the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) records to register voters automatically.

Oddly enough, Griswold is promising to fix the election process. “I will work to increase voter participation and to make elections more accessible and secure. That’s why I plan to expand automatic voter registration to increase voter registration and participation in our democratic process,” she states.

The chaos surrounding the upcoming November mid-terms is just beginning.

Leading Edge of Field to Fork Inflation Starts to Arrive in September Producer Price Index


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 12, 2022 | Sundance 

The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released September price data [Available Here] showing another 8.5% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  However, that’s not the bad news in this data.

While the overall September PPI was higher than expected at 0.4%, the Final Demand Producer Price for food products in September was a whopping 1.2% (14.4% annualized).

The BLS notes the driver by saying, “a major factor in the September increase in prices for final demand goods was a 15.7-percent advance in the index for fresh and dry vegetables. Prices for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, chicken eggs, home heating oil, and pork also moved higher.”

That’s a 15.7% increase in price, in one month, for fresh and dry vegetables.  Annualized that’s a rate of price increase of 188.4% for vegetables.   Remember the warning about farm costs (energy, fertilizer, fuel) driving field to fork inflation at harvest?  This is the leading edge of that third wave of food price increases.

I have modified BLS Table-2 to focus specifically on food costs.  The data is on left.

You will note that ‘row crops’ are the big drivers along with grain and seed products.  This is exactly as we predicted it would be because those specific farming costs are the ones with greatest increase from energy, fuel, fertilizer, weed and insect control, and diesel costs.

All of those higher costs have been growing in the fields and will now surface at harvest.   The higher farm costs transfer from the field to the fork via the food supply chain.  This is only the leading edge of the price increase.

In October 2021 we first warned of the food price increases coming in distinct waves.  The first was Jan, Feb and March 2022.   The second wave was May through July 2022.  This third wave will be bigger than the first two and starts arriving this month, October 2022.

People laughed at me when I said in late 2022 eggs were going to reach .50¢ EACH ($6/doz).

Well, in September the price of fresh eggs jumped 16.7% in a single month.  That’s an annualized rate of price increase for eggs over 200%.

With hindsight you can clearly see the three waves of food price increases (BLS Table A):

Get ready and shop smart.

The October, November and December price increases in the grocery store are going to make the prior fresh food increases look small, as the full increased costs of farming operations starts to arrive at the supermarket.   Unfortunately, this will coincide with a wave of gasoline price increases, and the prices of natural gas are already skyrocketing.

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Florida Surgeon General Silenced by Twitter – Young Men are Dying from COVID Vaccine


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Oct 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo posted a warning on Twitter only to have the platform silence him. It is his responsibility to inform the public of potential health hazards. There should be a crackdown of Twitter for stifling free speech. The surgeon general’s tweet was reinstated after the weekend amid backlash. Hopefully, their desperate attempt to silence the truth backfired and brought more awareness to the problem.

The Florida Health Department examined those who had mysteriously died within 25 weeks of receiving the COVID vaccine. The guidance link provided by Dr. Lapado urges healthcare providers to examine the risks associated with these mRNA vaccines.

“The Florida Department of Health (Department) conducted an analysis through a self-controlled case series, which is a technique originally developed to evaluate vaccine safety. This studied mortality risk following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. This analysis found there is an 84% increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related death among males 18-39 years old within 28 days following mRNA vaccination. Individuals with preexisting cardiac conditions, such as myocarditis and pericarditis, should take particular caution when considering vaccination and discuss with their health care provider.”

These findings are extremely alarming, and the surgeon general recommends AGAINST COVID-19 vaccinations for men between 18-39 years of age. An 84% increase in cardiac-related deaths is astounding and a true eye-opener of how deep the cognitive dissonance is embedded in society, as NO ONE is discussing this matter. People are more concerned about Twitter removing the tweet than the actual content. The guidance continued:

“Based on currently available data, patients should be informed of the possible cardiac complications that can arise after receiving a mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. With a high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac-related death among men in this age group.”

Men over the age of 60 experienced a 10% increase in cardiac-related deaths as well. They are also recommending against the use of these dangerous vaccines in healthy children under 17. We should have already reached herd immunity long ago. The risks associated with the vaccine far outweigh the benefits (if there are any benefits). Healthy young men should not be dying from heart failure – the COVID narrative must end.

The Madman of Ukraine in High Heels


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Oct 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Martin
It is obvious that Zelensky does not have a brain and is being controlled by outside forces. Is it Schwab or is he just a front also? You probably know more than what is going on than anyone else including intelligence.
Thank you
All the best
MW

REPLY: I cannot say everything without compromising some sources. These people have played a dangerous game. Putin never intended to wage war on Ukraine. He was there to do what he said, protect the Russian population in the Donbas and Crimea, which have NEVER been occupied by Ukrainians. Zelensky should go back to dancing in high heels and leave the real world to serious people.

This launching of 83 missiles is the biggest attack on Kyiv since the war began. That in itself proves he was never trying to conquer Ukraine. This propaganda is all strategically being put out to create war. Europe needs this because it can no longer fund itself on the same basis of endless borrowing with no intention of ever repaying the debt. The failure to have consolidated the debt from the outset is tearing Europe apart. These people think (1) they can defeat Russia and chalk one up for climate change since 50% of Russia’s GDP is energy, and (2) a war will allow them all to default and create another Bretton Woods while reducing the population. These are real objectives.

Putin never struck Kyiv because that was the home of the Russ, where the Russians began. Only the destruction of Kyiv in 1240AD by the Mongold resulted in them settling in Moscow. Kyiv to Putin was more or less like London has been to the United States. This attack on Kyiv is what I have been warning about. Putin has been criticized by the hardliners for being too soft on Ukraine. They are not as nostalgic about Kyiv as Putin has been.

The West is pushing Russia and they will get what they want – war. This is just insane. The Ukrainian people need to overthrow Zelensky – NOW! He is not putting their best interests first. It has been confirmed he has already stashed more than $100 million offset and he will fly away on a private jet leaving the death and destruction behind. Maybe then he will change his shirt.

In the meantime, Russia can take down the power grid of Europe with a handful of missiles. Without alternatives, Europe’s current energy shortfall will worsen this winter. If Russia attacks the satellites, without GPS, most people will be lost today. Things can get really messed up without nuclear war.

Report, Durham Wrapping Up


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 10, 2022 | Sundance 

After several days of research interviews in a locked down and closed Washington DC, in the spring of 2020 I sat alone in a hotel room and pondered how to boil down the essence of the most critical information into one question.

Multiple days of questions and contacts accompanied three years of background research and 600+ pages of retrieved open-source citations sat on the table in front of me.  The exact same material was organized into two assemblies.

•The first set was organized in the timeline for when the documents were released or became public.  •The second set was the result of taking the documents and putting them into the chronological order of when the events took place.   As I stared at it, the answer became obvious…

Ask people a simple question, “what was the purpose of former FBI Director Robert Mueller’s two-year probe?

Returning to those same discussions and going back into the individual silos, that new question was asked, “what was the purpose of Mueller?”

The responses showed the reality.

Every single person in Washington DC, across the broad spectrum of institutions from all branches – including media, would speak plainly that Mueller’s team objective (from May 2017 to April 2019) was to use the authority of his appointment to block any review of the preceding events he was presumably investigating.

Yes, in private conversation everyone stated a similar core truth, Mueller was the tool for DC to protect itself against accountability.

That reality was a bitter pill to swallow, because accepting that common response in private stood in contrast to those same voices talking publicly about the honor and respect of Robert Mueller.  The charade was clear.

Publicly everyone stated Robert Mueller and his team were embarked upon a valid enterprise.  However, privately everyone acknowledged Robert Mueller and his team were operating to cover-up the prior corrupt activity of the DOJ, specifically the DOJ National Security Division, and FBI – specifically the FBI counterintelligence operation.

Despite my having researched, discovered and assembled irrefutable evidence of the depth of corruption; it was challenging to accept that no one would openly confront it.  I was, like most at the time, naive to just how systemic and entrenched the problems had become during the Obama era.

Thankfully, there was a protection around me, and I was directly warned not to take anything to the FBI.  I think the last three years have provided multiple citations for what would happen to anyone who would confront main justice corruption by reaching out to the FBI.  Approximately 8 months after my own experience I delivered that same warning message forward.  Two years later the recipient of my 2020 warning has become a target, exactly as feared.

The way DC officials, politicians and the bureaucrats who oil the machinery, created this modern system of usurpation is outlined in the construct of The Fourth Branch of Government.

Four modern pillars of national security maintain the superseding branch that stands above the Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches.  They are: (1) The DOJ-NSD; (2) The Dept of Homeland Security; (3) The Office of the Director of National Security, and (4) the FISA court.  Each of these institutions uses the shield of national security to protect themselves from oversight.

You can clearly see how the Fourth Branch operates when you look at the recent judicial branch deferment to the DOJ-NSD on the issue of President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago documents and the classification argument.

The courts defer everything under the auspices of “national security,” thereby making their judicial ability to check the executive ineffective.  The congress also defers their oversight role under the auspices of “national security” by refusing to conduct legislative oversight.  This ‘national security’ dynamic is an outcome of how the post 9-11 Patriot Act was put into place.  The DHS and ODNI were created in this process, and later came the DOJ-NSD as created by Attorney General Eric Holder.

Taking the new surveillance state apart would require removing the pillars that hold the Fourth Branch of Government in place.  No one is discussing such a necessary deconstruction effort; instead, everyone is pretending the anti-democracy issue is not critical and weakening the constitutional republic ever day it exists.

Back to Mueller…. When the entire town knows the true motive for Mueller’s investigation to exist, yet no single person will state it publicly, you look at the people claiming the virtue of Mueller with new eyes.   It wasn’t just democrats, there were/are abundant republicans proclaiming the virtue of Robert Mueller et al.

Every time I watched former AG Bill Barr talking about Special Counsel Robert Mueller, it was crystal clear Bill Barr was the application of Bondo over the corrupt and rusted DC justice system.  As a result, the appointment of John Durham needed to be accepted through the same prism of intent.

Bill Barr was the Bondo work, and John Durham would apply the shiny coat of paint.

The corrupt and useless shell of Main Justice would be covered up and the polished image sold to the public.  However, depending on where you stand, fortunately or unfortunately the public isn’t buying it.  As each day passes more people are aware of the problem.  DC denial runs rampant against the reality of We The People seeing the fraud.

[…]  Mr. Durham is completing a several-hundred-page report he will submit to Attorney General Merrick Garland at the end of his tenure, according to people familiar with the matter. His office has relayed to a defense attorney they don’t expect to bring charges against another person who was a focus of the investigation. (read more)