Category Economic Confidence Model

May 17 2023

The 37 Year Cycle


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civilization Re-Posted May 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Well, Sports Illustrated just had to join the BudLight Woke Controversy. I suppose they could have put a Transgender on the cover. So it looks like they decided to stop short of that insanity and chose to put Martha Stewart who is 81 on the cover.

Elle McPhearson, known as the Body, really saw her modeling career take off after making the Sports Illustrated magazine’s annual Swimsuit Issue in 1986. She appeared on the cover a record five times: 1986, 1987, 1988, 1994, and 2006. Girls would line up with the hope of following Elle’s career desperately trying to make the cover of Sports Illustrated.

It is curious, but between the 1986 Cover of Elle & 2023 with Martha Stewart, it is shockingly precisely on time. And as for those who will speculate that Elle and I were somehow connected, her father was one of our Australian partners. No, I never dated Elle. The story that circulated in Tokyo was funny but completely exaggerated. Elle began a clothing line and sent me samples of her line of Men’s underway.  That was the extent of that and some were claiming why would she be sending me men’s underwear It was her clothing line. That was it. Not personal shopping for my birthday.

Interestingly, that is an important cycle interval and the fact it is impacting Sports Illustrated is very disturbing. Yes, it was my famous off-the-cuff forecast that Authentic would win the Kentucky Derby back in 2020. It was a long shot, so they said. But It was the third Derby win for the Jockey John Velazquez. Yet Authentic became the first horse to win Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes in 37 years.

It was October 1986 when an agreement was then reached to meet in Reykjavík, Iceland, between Gorbachev and President Reagan limiting nuclear weapons. This October will be 37 years. In January 1987, Gorbachev called for democratization: the infusion of democratic elements such as multi-candidate elections into the Soviet political process. A 1987 conference convened by Soviet economist Leonid Abalkin, a key adviser to Gorbachev, concluded: “Deep transformations in the management of the economy cannot be realized without corresponding changes in the political system.” We are more likely to see the end of that and a turn back to nationalism in Russia as a consequence of this war instigated by the Neocons. That will be in 2024.

This is not looking good at all.  The 5th 309.6-year cycle from the Fall of Rome in 476AD also comes due in 2024. I understand there are people who are trying to promote patriotism to retake the United States and return it to the days when agreements were honored and the Constitution stood for something. I appreciate those sentiments, but unfortunately, our computer says clearly that they will fail for without the PAIN, there is no REFORM = GAIN. Just as I have warned that these dark forces seeking to impose their totalitarian view of government will also fail. Neither side will prevail and we must simply CRASH & BURN and that is required if we are to recreate a new world post-2032.

Real Woman

This WOKENESS is simply part of the strategy to divide and conquer. Keep the people divided and they will not ban together against government. This entire Transgender insanity is very serious. There are only about 1.6 million people in the US who identify as Transgender. The US population is just under 335 million people. This is less than 0.5%. Yet, girls have been denied sports careers and mothers are no longer moths but birthing people. All because 1.6 million want to be called a woman so we can no longer define what is a woman. So those who give birth and reduce to just a birthing person. Again, all of this is to undermine our society and divide it so profoundly to ensure that we will never band together to restore the United States and the original intent of the Constitution.

Gorgeous Thai ladyboys, Pattaya, Thailand. 31.10.2020

In Thailand, the sex-change capital of the world, Ladyboys are very common. They do NOT call themselves “women” but refer to themselves as “ladyboys” and are everywhere. It is no big deal. If you meet a girl, you just ask if they are a ladyboy and they will simply reply yes or no. So why here in the USA do we have to change the definition of a “woman” to accommodate less than half of one percent? I don’t think calling my mother, hey birthing person of mine, has the same ring.

Just as former Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg made clear, Roe v Wade was NEVER about women’s rights – it was about eugenics and reducing the population. This is ALSO behind this entire LGBQT movement to teach children even in 3 grade that they can choose to be LGBQT and push them to even change their gender. This is the same agenda as abortion – reduce the population.

Even more seriously, the climate change agenda. This is all about reducing our standard of living and there is no science behind this because they refuse to look beyond the mid-19th century so they can blame everything on the industrial revolution.

The only way for this Great Reset, which they have taken from our Economic Confidence Model predicting the collapse of our current monetary and political system come 2032, they are hoping to push us into a new age of totalitarianism. Civilization expands with warming periods, and it declines as we head into cold periods and darkness.

Apr 27 2023

REMINDER: Inflation was at 1.4% When Biden Took Office


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Apr 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation was only 1.4% when Biden took office. He began implementing policies on his first day that directly created the energy crisis in the US. He refused to reopen the economy under the pretense of COVID for as long as possible, disrupting the supply chain and damaging small businesses. Biden has created multi-trillion dollar spending programs that saddled the nation with more debt and increased price volatility. His team has been working to divide the people and create civil unrest. I could go on about his failures, but his worst move was involving America in the Russia-Ukraine war. Inflation has steadily risen to unsustainable levels nearly every month since Biden took office.

Biden’s team toys with the numbers to tout that inflation has gone down, but they are comparing the high and low both created under Biden. Wages cannot support the increase in costs and absolutely no one is better off under Biden. Considering the dire situation, it is infuriating that the US had a 1.4% inflation rate not long ago.

Inflation has soared by over 15% since Biden’s inauguration in January 2021. The “Presidential Inflation Rate,” (PIR) developed by the Winston Group, measures a president’s progress in handling inflation over time, from their inauguration month to the month of the most recent CPI report. As of March, inflation under Biden is 15%, which makes him the most inflationary president since Carter. Biden’s 24% “Presidential Inflation Rate” for rising electricity costs is higher than any of the previous seven presidents as it is now up 37.2%. The cost of food rose 18.3% under Biden, and eggs alone have soared by nearly 80%. Shelter costs are now at a 42-year high, and Biden’s PIR for rent has surpassed 13.5%.

Joe Biden takes no responsibility for the inflation caused by his policies and failures as a president. Inflation will continue to increase under Biden. He has absolutely no plans to address the issue, and the legislation he creates to address the problem only exacerbates it. Biden is a corrupt politician who lines his pockets with money from Ukraine and China. The investigation into his crime family that the media is sweeping under the rug reveals the truth. This man needs to be removed from office immediately, but the people alone must decide when they’ve had enough.

Apr 24 2023

The Great De-Dollarization


Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted Apr 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

All we hear is the same claims that the dollar is dead and it will be totally worthless any day now. Over the last few weeks, all we hear from the majority now is that the dollar is finished. Virtually every page you turn or site you visit claims the death of the dollar. They are calling this the de-dollarization of the world economy and that the future of the US dollar as well as the American empire itself is now collapsing. The general claim is that the group of economically-aligned nations known collectively as BRICS is a major threat to the greenback. That was the same story we heard about the Euro back in 1997.

As their scenario goes, the BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa] have moved to form an anti-dollar colation and Saudi Arabia is considering jumping on board. They insist that once that happens, the “petrodollar” will die and cease to be a reserve currency.

This is then followed by the forecast that the economy will suffer and that any bounce in exports will be short-lived simply because the dollar will be dead for the long term. Of course, this has been the favorite forecast that they keep putting out since Bretton Woods collapsed. They were wrong back then for the dollar rose between 1972 and 1976 against the British pound, with the collapse of Bretton Woods. To try to explain why the dollar did not collapse, that is when they claimed that the dollar was backed now by oil rather than gold. That was just an excuse as always to cover up their wrong forecast.

They sold that story to Newsweek and now the dollar rally was because of oil which replace gold. Suddenly the dollar became de facto backed by oil. They needed an explanation to explain why all the old theories were wrong. They sold this theory and it made the front cover of Newsweek. Everyone said YES! That must be the reason. OPEC priced oil in dollars! Naturally, everything was priced in dollars because, under the fixed exchange rate of Bretton Woods, everything from wheat and corn to copper and gold was all priced in dollars.

Now they are saying the American empire is threatened by the potential commercial real estate collapse and the BRICS anti-dollar venture. So they are forecasting a great depression-style crash is possible in the not-too-distant future. They spin this to forecast the end of the America Empire. The London FT, always anti-American/Pro WEF, reports that the dollar as a reserve currency has declined from  73% in 2001 to around 55% by 2021. Yet the FT did state an obvious fact:

“But if you are a reserve-rich central bank elsewhere that isn’t going to be a lot of comfort. Moreover, would you really feel more comfortable in, say, the renminbi? Even if it was fully convertible and liquid, would you honestly feel more sure that Beijing will behave lawfully than DC? The dollar still looks like the proverbial least dirty shirt in the closet.”

COVID actually has played a major role in shifting the world economy. In 2020, the US economy was 24.75% of the world’s GDP. By the start of 2022, it had fallen marginally to 24.15%. What these dollar-forecasting jockeys do not understand, is that if they were correct and the dollar collapsed, then the very BRICS would collapse even further. Economically speaking, when the United States gets a head cold, the rest of the world catches ammonia. You can’t have it both ways. The strength of the dollar is not gold or oil, it is the American consumer.

The risk to the entire world is runaway inflation thanks to Biden pouring untold amounts of money into the black hole known as Ukraine. The Neocons, who control Biden, are planning to launch a war against Russia and China before 2024. This will only continue to accelerate inflation. That reduces the spending power of the American consumer and in the process, the US economic growth declines in real terms and with it, the rest of the world plunges into recession.

While Macron has figured it out that the Neocons are in charge of US foreign policy and he is telling Europe to stop being the puppet of the USA, that all sounds nice but Europe is marching into war with Russia. NATO is firmly in control of the American Neocons and they need war or face losing power. With Trump in the lead, they must stop him at all costs for he is anti-war, would haul the Neocons out by the necks, and defund NATO, as well as stop the climate change agenda.

The US dollar in the global economy has been supported by the size and strength of the US consumer-based economy. Its stability and openness to trade and capital flows without restrictions and it has never been canceled, are the major foundation of the dollar in addition to strong property rights and the rule of law. That is why Russians and Chinese buy US property for they are secure in their ownership of US property which cannot always be guaranteed outside the US.

Consequently, the depth and liquidity of US financial markets remain unmatched. For institutions parking billions, the United States represents a large supply of extremely safe dollar-denominated assets. Are they really going to switch to China or buy debt from Brazil?  Not a single institutional client will take that bait.

China has been divesting of dollar reserves because it KNOWS that the American Neocons want war. You do not fund your adversary who intends to wage war against you. China cannot shift reserve assets to Europe or Japan. They have been buying gold because it is geopolitically neutral territory. They are NOT buying gold as an investor thinking it will rally. That is irrelevant. If gold drops 25%, that does not translate into them becoming a seller.

The dollar in international reserves stood at 60+% at the start of 2022 against the US share of GDP at 24.25%. This comparison belittles the argument that the dollar is finished. Eventually, the US will lose the wars it is starting and the dollar will be replaced perhaps as soon as 2028. The IMF is already licking its lips and rubbing its hands together eager to get control of the reserve currency. But they too will collapse. We have a Directional Change next year and a Panic Cycle in 2025. So buckle up.!

Remember one thing, even with the debasement and collapse of the Roman Denarius between 260AD and 268AD, it still took 224 years for Rome to completely collapse. When war breaks out, capital flight will still be to the dollar. It will not be to public assets, but private. The United States is still supporting the entire world economy. The BRICS need the US consumer to keep their economies functioning. All this talk of the dollar being finished is really nonsense. That day will come, but when the US consumer no longer buys.

Remember 1997? The Euro was going to dethrone the dollar. They claimed the new EU will be a bigger economy than the US. The problem was, they lacked a consumer economy, and low taxes, and they routinely canceled their currency to force people to pay taxes. It is always the same story over and over again.

Apr 22 2023

INTERVIEW – WORLD WAR 3 IS WHAT “THEY” WANT AND ARE ON TRACK TO GET IT


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Apr 18 2023

Why Does the ECM Work On So Many Things?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Apr 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT #1: Hi Martin, corn also turned nicely on the ECM:

JB

COMMENT #2: Hello Marty, I just want to point out that the Japanese yen broke really hard on the 10th. Not sure if this will prove to be a precursor of what is to come.

Thanks from Tokyo, your old home ground.

AS

COMMENT #3: Well the ECM also marked the reversal in trend in the 30-year bond. It peaked at 134 and fell to 130 by the end of the week. That was just remarkable.

Colin

COMMENT #4: Martin; is this chart real that people are sending around claiming it was Benner’s work?

Mat

ANSWER: As far as this chart of Brenner’s Cycle being real, the answer is no Someone has made it up and signed his name. They have at least extended his cycle correctly. The last time someone tried that they skewed the cycle to make it look like it forecast the Depression 1932 low.

When the WSJ published it, it showed 1932 instead of 1931. Brenner did not extend this out in this manner. What is important to understand is that Brenner was a farmer and farmers understand the cycles in nature. Economists and governments pretend they can smooth out the cycle and eliminate the booms and busts.

The business cycle always wins as both former chairmen of the Federal Reserve conceded – Arthur Burns and Paul Volcker.

Back during the 19th century when Brenner was observing the business cycle, it was still based on commodities. Kondratieff took the same data. I believe the reason WHY the Economic Confidence Model has been so accurate is that it was based on a list of Panics – not one sector of the economy. Therefore, the ECM incorporates weather as Brenner and Kondratieff did by using the commodity sector. Yet just that the ECM was derived from financial panics, it was not based on any one specific type so it strangely seems to have incorporated the whole gambit.

Furthermore, all previous cyclical analysis was based on just a single market like stocks. They have failed because they could not account for the external influence of a contagion. The fact that this list began with the Turks’ siege of Vienna, means that the list was also influenced by war and from an international perspective.

This is a fascinating subject that I will explore in far more detail in my coming book.

Apr 18 2023

IMF New Currency on ECM April 10th


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Apr 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT #1: On April 10th the IMF released UNICOIN, est Voila! Zee beginning of zee end?

Lawrence

COMMENT #2: Marty, the ECM target was way too much. The Pentagon Papers was one thing, but precisely April 10th is when the IMF announced its new currency to dominate the world. Your ECM is just incredible. Why so many things of great importance take place on this model is proof that there is a hidden order behind everything.

TJ

COMMENT #3: Marty, As you know, I was there at your 1987 conference for the Crash which was caused by the G5 manipulation of the currency that began in 1985. That culminated in the collapse of communism and the Japanese crash of 1989. Here we have once again the IMF announcing on the very day of the ECM April 10th, that they are releasing their new currency to replace the dollar. This looks like it will impact the entire world economy and the war you have been warning about post-2024.

I don’t know how this model works even to the precise day. It is easy to see why they tried to kill you thinking it was just your opinion and influence. They refuse to consider that perhaps there is something much more at stake than anyone’s opinion.

Thank you for this eye-opening discovery.

EK

REPLY: I do not know why this will work to the price day in wave after wave. Even the 2007 target was the very day of the crash in the mortgage-backed market. They were calling it Armstrong’s Revenge on the floor. They locked me up but it still was working as scheduled proving it was never my “influence” that they were so convinced about. There is something there, and it is about time we acknowledge it.

The government was furious when the New Yorker wrote about this model and called it the Secret Cycle. I believe that caused the journalist a lot of trouble. If there is a hidden order, that means the government cannot manipulate society as it thinks it can. This is why we are headed into 2032. They are fighting for their survival. They are pushing for digital currency, will terminate all paper money, and then you will see that they will restrict us from buying or selling anything they do not approve

Welcome to the 21st century of Economic Slavery. This is also the Third Millennium of the Anno Domini or Common Era in the Gregorian calendar spanning the years 2001 to 3000 (21st to 30th centuries).  As I have warned, reactions are always TWO or THREE units of TIME and everything is FRACTAL. We are in the same position on a grand scale as April 10th, which was 2.15 years into this cycle. We are approaching the 2150 years target and our republican forms of government globally will not survive.

I am working long days to finish this book on the ECM. I promise it will be an eye-opener as you have said.

Apr 17 2023

Sources


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Apr 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You are renowned for your sources. You said the IMF was planning to replace the dollar with its own international digital currency. You targeted Ukraine a year before anyone heard of the country. You said Ukraine was losing the war and they had lost 100,000 troops when people said that was Russian propaganda. That turned out to be classified as Ukrainian information. These Pentagon papers confirm everything you have said a year ago. Israel was reluctant to send anything to Ukraine when everyone said Zelensky was Jewish. The list goes on and on.

My question is, why do you have information from around the world before anyone else?

HP

ANSWER: That is hard to say. I think what has emerged over the decades is that people are sharing information from all over to get a true picture of what is honestly happening. People come to me because I put out the truth. Back when they were forming the Euro, it has come out that the Bundesbank was against it. They were providing all the notes and discussions going on because they also know we have the largest institutional audience of anyone. It is never my opinion. Everyone has opinions and that means nothing. We are well read because it is not my personal opinion. I really cannot address this subject any more than that.

Apr 17 2023

Greg Hunter Interview of Martin Armstrong


Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Apr 16 2023

Interview: You’re Either In Power or in Prison


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Click here to listen to my latest interview with Blind Spot: “You’re Either in Power or in Prison.”

Episode Description:

Martin Armstrong pops in to tell us his story, including how he developed his Socrates trading algorithm which predicted the Russian financial crisis of 1998 as well as the details behind the circumstances that found him in contempt of court and thus incarcerated for 11 years. The interview starts about halfway into the podcast.