The Real Cost of War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 6, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Good Morning Mr. Armstrong, a long-time reader and client of Socrates and your conferences. I just read your entry for Belarus drafting 18 to 60-year-olds. I had a feeling that eventually, that would take place here in the states. I can tell you without a doubt, I will never comply. My family has served in WWII and Vietnam. We have given enough. I absolutely despise our government. I am wondering if this is part of the continued collapse of the government. With such low recruitment levels and the political fallout from the past few years, they must realize people will not be forced to serve. Especially those with the means to defend themselves. Is this a main component of civil unrest here with separatist movements? Just curious if you can elaborate on what you think will happen when they institute a draft here.
All the Best.

J

REPLY: My family has fought in every war since the American Revolution. My cousin still has the musket on his wall from the American Revolution. I lost half of my high school friends to Vietnam and my father and his three brothers were all in World War II and my grandfathers on both sides of the family were in World War I. There is no question that in a time of war, the first shot fired is both silent and never against an enemy. It is always against any truthful reporting of events.

The Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) Extract Files contain records of 58,220 U.S. military fatal casualties of the Vietnam War. The government propaganda site, Wikipedia also directed by the Deep State, has low-balled the casualties claiming in total, all US and allied military deaths reached 282,000. We claim that is a victory for the VC lost 444,000 to possibly 666,000. The civilians who died have been low-balled with estimates of 405,000 up to 627,000. Just turn to Britannica and you get:

“In 1995 Vietnam released its official estimate of the number of people killed during the Vietnam War: as many as 2,000,000 civilians on both sides and some 1,100,000 North Vietnamese and Viet Cong fighters.”

President Lydon Johnson knew there was no reason to enter Vietnam. He knew we could not get out easily. Still, he committed the country to war because the Neocons wanted it.

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This is a famous photograph from Vietnam that is probably the most memorable of all time. You see South Vietnamese forces following terrified children. At the center is 9-year-old Phan Thi Kim Phùc, as she and other children are running from an aerial napalm attack on suspected Viet Cong hiding places on June 8, 1972. The plane accidentally dropped napalm on South Vietnamese troops and civilians. As always, just the collateral damage of war. The terrified girl had ripped off her burning clothes while fleeing. This photo was taken by Nick Ut of The Associated Press that captured the horror of Vietnam worldwide. It was 1972 when President Nixon said enough and promised to bring the troops home.

This 9-year-old make girl running from napalm, Phan Thi Kim Phúc, had profoundly changed her forever. Such people are tormented for a lifetime. They wake up at night dreaming over and over about the horror of those events for the rest of their lives. Kim Phúc was bitter and full of hatred she said. Later, she picked up the Bible and converted to Christianity. Today, she lives in Toronto with her family and helps other children victims of war around the world. It is those who survive who are profoundly tortured for the remainder of their lives. That is the real cost of war that nobody cares about.

The official estimate of civilian deaths in World War II stands at a total of 70–85 million. The actual military deaths were 21,000,000 to 25,500,000. There is ALWAYS an equal amount of civilian deaths in times of war. Those in power never want to talk about that.

Bidenomics – Amazon Announces 18,000 Layoffs, and They Are Not Alone – Imports and Exports Drop


Posted originally on the CTH on January 5, 2023 | Sundance 

That slow grinding creak you hear in the background; that’s the U.S. economic engine running without oil and beginning that slowdown phase just before it stutters and stalls completely.  Alas, the pretending continues…

As noted by the Wall Street Journal, an economic gaslighting institution with a central mission to maintain pretenses, “business surveys show U.S. factory activity declined in December, the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global both said this week. Separately, S&P Global said Thursday that U.S. services-sector businesses reported a decline in output for the third month running in December.” This comes as “U.S. imports dropped more, by 6.4% on the month, as Americans cut back on holiday-related purchases, including items from other countries such as computers and autos.

Keep in mind, November retail sales—which included consumer spending at stores, online and at restaurants—fell 0.6% from the prior month for their biggest decline of 2022, according to the Commerce Department. Manufacturing output declined in November as well, the Fed reported, while U.S. home sales fell for a record 10th straight month.

Into this mix of economic metrics, driven by a collapse in disposable consumer income and high energy prices, now we begin to see the number one business expense being curtailed.

(Market Watch) […] Amazon.com Inc layoffs will affect more than 18,000 employees, the highest reduction tally revealed in the past year at a major technology company as the industry pares back amid economic uncertainty.

The Seattle-based company in November said that it was beginning layoffs among its corporate workforce, with cuts concentrated on its devices business, recruiting and retail operations. At the time, The Wall Street Journal reported the cuts would total about 10,000 people. Thousands of those cuts began last year. (more)

Amazon is not alone, “Vimeo said Wednesday that it will cut its workforce by 11% as part of a broader effort to reduce costs, citing deteriorating economic conditions” (link).  Additionally, Salesforce Inc. is laying off 10% of its workforce and reducing its office space in certain markets, extending a brutal period for tech job cuts into the new year.”

We can anticipate more reports like this from Reuters, “Samsung Electronics Co Ltd’s quarterly profit will likely plunge 58% to its lowest in six years as a global economic downturn saps demand for electronic devices and clouds the outlook for the memory chip industry.  With consumers and businesses reducing spending and investment in the face of high inflation and climbing interest rates, smartphone makers and other clients held back memory chip orders, while smartphones sold for less as demand suffered, analysts said.”

Electronics, cars, furniture, durable goods of all types and varieties are plummeting in sales.  Consumers are being squeezed by inflation, housing, energy and food costs, and spending priorities are being reevaluated yet again.  Compare the impact on ‘real wages’ -vs- the 2007/2008 economic crisis.

From a purely fraudulent accounting perspective, however, the drop in U.S. imports will help boost calculations of U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter because trade deficits subtract from overall output, or gross domestic product.

U.S. consumers not purchasing imported goods makes the health of the U.S. economy look less bad; but it’s an illusion akin to smiles in the bread lines.

In other economic news, I did some real estate analysis over the past several days and it’s safe to say there is a steep downward trajectory in the data I use.   Again, home values are nuanced on a regional level, but my model is pretty close in averaging.

If buyers do not absorb the seller’s loss in equity (which no one should ever do), in my SWFL area a $450k home listing is going to sell around $380k at the high side (actual value based on economic indicators and buyer ability).   That rough estimate, while slightly offset due to general inflation, should trend nationally over the next 12 to 18 months.   That means macro home prices dropping around 15 to 20% nationally over the next 12 months.

If you are a home buyer, put your offers around 15 to 20% below current asking price without any emotional attachment to it.  Don’t flinch, remain ambivalent and walk away if refused.   The recovery to current price will take around a decade.  If you are a seller and get an offer within -10% of asking, consider yourself lucky and jump on it.

Breaking! New documents show the cover-up is even WORSE than we thought | Redacted News Live


Redacted News Published originally on Rumble on January 5, 2023 

A BOMBSHELL new report shows that the Department of Defense controlled the COVID-19 Program from the very beginning… and everything we were told was political theater to cover it up. These documents were obtained by a former executive of a pharmaceutical Contract Research Organization Sasha Latypova. You can visit her substack here: https://substack.com/profile/50868935-sasha-latypova

Nunes: Schiff pushed Twitter to ban journalist for exposing his fake Ukraine whistleblower


Devin Nunes Published originally on Rumble on January 4, 2023

The corruption just keeps pouring out of the DC Swamp, you wouldn’t think that much crap could exist in one spot, but it does!

Remarkable Survey: 28% Of Americans Personally Know Someone Who Died from COVID-19 Jab


Posted originally on the CTH on January 2, 2023 | Sundance 

A rather remarkable poll from Rasmussen [Full Data Here] shows some remarkable public polling outcomes about the COVID-19 jab.

According to the survey of 1,000 Americans, 28% of the polled respondents know someone personally who died as a side-effect of the COVID-19 vaccination.  The results cut across all cultural and political boundaries as reflected in the data.  According to Rasmussen, “Twenty-eight percent (28%) of adults say they personally know someone whose death they think may have been caused by side effects of COVID-19 vaccines, while 61% don’t and another 10% are not sure.”

There have been very few surveys of Americans (or other country citizens) for their impression and knowledge of the vaccine side effects.  However, this random poll is likely to trigger additional, albeit perhaps defensive, inquiry.   If over one-in-four Americans believe they know someone who likely died as a result of the vaccination, that is an alarming outcome.

The Rasmussen survey aligns with a recent report that only “15% of people eligible for the Covid booster shot that targets the omicron variant have gotten it … according to a recent poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation” {link}, and would certainly explain why 85 out of every 100 people who took the initial jab have refused further vaccination efforts.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Americans believe there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines, while 37% think people who worry about vaccine safety are spreading conspiracy theories. Another 15% are not sure. (more)

The head pollster for Rasmussen, Mark Mitchell, appeared with Steve Bannon to discuss the alarming survey result.

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The Full Poll Data is Here

Some screengrabs of the results below:  “More Democrats (85%) than Republicans (63%) or those not affiliated with either major party (64%) have been vaccinated against COVID-19. More Republicans (60%) than Democrats (44%) or the unaffiliated (43%) think there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. However, there is less political difference in the number who suspect someone they know might have died from vaccine side effects – 33% of Democrats and 26% of both Republicans and the unaffiliated.”

Here is Mark Mitchell breaking down the survey results and explaining the methodology:

Did they Get the Pandemic Idea from the 2010 Simpson’s


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Jan 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Twitter File Release #11 – The Government Censorship Campaign to Control COVID-19 Information


Posted originally on the CTH on December 26, 2022 | Sundance

Twitter File release #11 hits on the long-anticipated information surrounding how the platform was instructed by various government agencies to remove content adverse to the expressed opinion of CDC, HHS, and DHS officials. [Release #11 Here]

The first installment of the Twitter COVID-19 files comes from David Zweig, a writer for New York Mag, New York Times, The Atlantic and other publications.  Because the U.S. Government COVID-19 information control operation was so extensive, there will likely be several Twitter File releases related to the SARS-CoV2 pandemic issue.  However, in this first release Zweig starts to build the story of how the CDC and HHS set the foundation for the echo-chamber that ended with Twitter executives running amok.

[Twitter File #11 – Release Here]

As Zweig begins his review he noted, “The United States government pressured Twitter and other social media platforms to elevate certain content and suppress other content about Covid-19.”  While the Trump administration was worried about information that would create panic, like runs on grocery stores, the Biden administration was more focused on content control to push the overall narrative about fearing COVID and the vaccination demand.

When the Biden admin took over, one of their first meeting requests with Twitter executives was on Covid. The focus was on “anti-vaxxer accounts.” Especially Alex Berenson,” Zweig writes as he then begins to give examples of various medical professionals that were targeted by the White House and the platform.

The outcome of the HHS and CDC push circled around politics, which, when combined with the ideological perspectives of the Twitter executives, inevitably ended up making COVID-19 a political issue on the platform.  Critics of COVID-19 policy were blocked, censored, removed and restricted.  Advocates of government policy were enhanced, amplified, promoted and enlarged.

The scale of the issue meant supportive algorithms based on key words needed to be created, and the scope of the information battle necessitated the hiring of contractors.  As Zweig notes, “contractors in places like the Philippines, also moderated content. They were given decision trees to aid in the process, but tasking non experts to adjudicate tweets on complex topics like myocarditis and mask efficacy data was destined for a significant error rate.”

The Biden administration wanted to use fear as a weapon to control public opinion of COVID-19.  The aligned ideological Twitter executives also wanted to assist using fear and fought to controversialize and target any voice who downplayed the fear of covid.  One of those pragmatic voices was President Trump.

President Trump sent out this Tweet in 2020 which was not well received by former FBI General Counsel, now Twitter General Counsel, Jim Baker:

Apparently, the phrase “don’t be afraid of Covid” was triggering for those who wanted fear and panic to be the prevalent perspective on the virus.

Twitter General Counsel Jim Baker asked the head of Twitter’s censorship group, Yoel Roth, why wasn’t this statement worthy of Donald Trump being removed for violating the Twitter Covid policy?

As you can see, Jim Baker wanted to censor the optimistic approach of President Trump in order to amplify the fearful and looming message.

The motive of Jim Baker, while undefined by Mr. Zweig, is transparent in hindsight.

The platform officials and the various officials in media, were promoting the fear and worry narrative as part of an election strategy to facilitate mail-in ballots.  COVID-19 was as much, perhaps even more of, an election manipulation tool as it was a virus.

In the rest of the outline Zweig focuses on the professionals who were targeted by the information control campaign. “Twitter made a decision, via the political leanings of senior staff, and govt pressure, that the public health authorities’ approach to the pandemic – prioritizing mitigation over other concerns – was “The Science” . . .
Information that challenged that view, such as showing harms of vaccines, or that could be perceived as downplaying the risks of Covid, especially to children, was subject to moderation, and even suppression. No matter whether such views were correct or adopted abroad.

The government, media and social media campaign to control information about COVID-19 was never about science or even the virus itself.  The COVID-19 information control operation was always about control over the public.  That campaign became political because the Biden campaign/administration, Democrats, media and the voices in control over social media weaponized it around their political beliefs.

The COVID-19 narrative becomes a tool to achieve a variety of objectives: debate controls; the deployed ‘excuse‘ for a very visible lack of voter enthusiasm for the puppet (Biden); the use of fraudulent ‘mail-in ballots’; the keeping of socially distant physical auditors, etc.  Without COVID as a tool the manufactured process is more difficult. The ‘never let a crisis go to waste‘ strategy includes the creation of a crisis.

The COVID-19 narrative held four primary benefits.  Without COVID weaponized we would not see:

  • (1) Mail-in ballots.  The origination material of the 2020 fraud.
  • (2) Breaking down of alliance-minded gathering and assemblies.  COVID blocked group gatherings to discuss what was around us and stopped us from recognizing the scale of our assembly.  COVID also took down faith-based leadership and church assembly when it was needed most.
  • (3) Spending packages that were really blue state bailouts justified under the auspices of COVID relief.
  • (4) Government providing the crisis solution (and all the ramifications therein).

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Lastly, we know in hindsight; the 2016 presidential transition team carried a then unknown motive.  Who was it that recommended: Dan Coats (ODNI), Michael Atkinson (ICIG), James Mattis (DoD), Dana Boente (DOJ-NSD then FBI counsel).  Who was the one steering these placements from inside the transition team?

Who was in charge of the transition team and also in charge of the Trump COVID-19 task force?