Category Political Corruption

Apr 17 2022

Latest Durham Filing Indicates Special Counsel Thesis of Sussmann Prosecution – FBI Was Duped While CIA Tried to Save Country From Clinton Schemes


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 16, 2022 | Sundance 

CTH begins every outline of the ongoing Durham investigation with the following disclaimer:  How is John Durham going to reveal everything that is possible about the deep state Trump targeting operation, and simultaneously handle the involvement of Robert Mueller, Andrew Weissmann and the Special Counsel team who were specifically appointed to cover it up?

Thanks to a more detailed filing by John Durham last night {pdf here, h/t Techno}, we can now see the guardrails, rules and general direction the prosecution is taking.

In essence, the underlying Trump-Russia conspiracy theory material from the Clinton campaign, via Rodney Joffe to Michael Sussmann, was fabricated – likely for a dual purpose:

(A) to coverup and make excuses for the stunningly embarrassing, potentially unlawful and politically terrible April 2016 DNC email leaks, which showed the DNC Club internally working to secure the nomination for Hillary Clinton, while trying to destroy her primary opponent, Bernie Sanders.

and

(B) to create the political Russia narrative against Trump, to be deployed later in the general election.

Within the general direction Durham is following, the FBI was duped by a purposeful and manipulative intent from the Clinton campaign.  Meanwhile, the CIA [Agency-2] did not buy into the technological evidence saying it was not “technically plausible” and was “user created and not machine/tool generated.”  

For a complete breakdown of the legal filings and what they mean on a detailed level –

–Read Techno Fog Substack Here.

The prosecutorial approach by John Durham positions all of the corruption outside the institutions of government, thereby protecting them.

The bad guys, the corrupt lawbreakers, are the people directly connected to the Clinton Campaign and all of the political and legal agents in/around the Clinton political machine.

As the prosecutorial narrative is unfolding, the institutions of government were victims to the horrible, terrible activity by the Clinton outsiders.

Pay no attention to the aligned politics and weaponization of the White House, DOJ, DOJ-NSD, FBI main, FBI-CoIntel, CIA, Senate Intelligence Committee, or memberships therein.  The entire apparatus of the most robust, capable, excellent and diligent intelligence apparatus in the history of all mankind, along with all the oversight mechanisms that exist to support that apparatus, was duped by Hillary Clinton’s team.

That’s John Durham’s investigative thesis, and the court filings show he’s sticking to it.

Apr 17 2022

Rule One, Economic Security Is National Security


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 16, 2022 | Sundance

…Rule two, there is no bigger rule than the first rule.

“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.”

~ Niccolo Machiavelli

Never has that Machiavelli quote been more apropos than when considering the MAGA movement and the rise of Donald Trump.

Thankfully, we are now in an era when the largest coalition of American voters have awakened to the reality that, to quote the former president: “Economic Security is National Security.”

As we live through the economic mess of a Biden administration hell bent on eroding the middle class of the United States, there are numerous pundits contemplating 2024 Republican presidential candidates other than Donald Trump; consider this group the lukewarm defenders Machiavelli noted.

At the same time the leftist coalition, writ large, are apoplectic about the base of the Republican Party now belonging to Donald Trump.  This group consists of those affluent Wall Street agents and politicians set on retaining the profits derived from decades of institutional objectives.

Institutional Democrats hate Trump, and institutional Republicans are lukewarm, at best, in defending Trump.  Both wings of the DC UniParty fear Trump.  Extreme efforts at control are a reaction to fear.  In this outline, I rise to explain why Donald Trump is the only option for the America First MAGA coalition; and I make my case not on supposition, but on empirical reference points that most should understand.

Everything, is about the economics of it.

If you accept that at its essential core elements the phrase “economic security is national security” is true – meaning the lives of the American citizen, person, worker, individual or family are best when their economic position is secure – then any potential leader for our nation must be able to initiate policies that directly touch the economics of a person’s life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  As a result, economic security and economic policy must be the fulcrum of their platform.

Now, look around and ask yourself this question: “What separated Donald J. Trump from the remaining field of 17 GOP candidates in 2016?”   An honest top-line answer would be immigration (border control), and his views on American economic policy.   In essence, what set Donald Trump apart from all other candidates was his view on the U.S. economy, and that was the driving factor behind ‘Make America Great Again’, MAGA.

Now, look around.  Look at every other potential candidate for political office. Is there another person in the field of your political view who comes from the starting point that economic security is national security?

Put aside all other issues and shiny things that may change from moment to moment as the political winds swirl and settle, and ask yourself that question.  Who can deliver MAGA, if not the central person who lives, eats, sleeps and thinks about U.S. economic security from every angle at every second of every hour of every day.  That’s Donald J. Trump.

Trump knows the extremely consequential sequence of BIG things that lead to a structurally strong American economic foundation.

We don’t have to guess at whether Trump can deliver on that policy sequence, we have reference points.

♦ Donald Trump knew that independent U.S. energy policy was a condition for a strong U.S. economy. He also knew there would be negative consequences to allies and partners if the U.S. energy policy was independent.  Trump knew that OPEC nations in general would be negatively impacted, and he knew that Saudi Arabia specifically would be weakened geopolitically.   That is why the very first foreign trip by Donald Trump was to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States that make up the majority of OPEC.

Look at what President Trump did on that trip.  First, he assured Saudi Arabia that the United States would stand with the Gulf Cooperation Council and Mid-East nations as it pertained to their security.  Trump knew making the largest energy consuming nation independent from foreign oil would be adverse to the economic stability of the Mid-East, and as an outcome, could open a door to destabilization from extremist or ideological groups therein.

Take away top-line economic revenue from Saudi et al, and the leaders of those oil economies have a more difficult time remaining stable and controlling unrest and extremism.  Generations of Arab citizens know nothing other than the trickle down benefits of oil exports.  President Trump knew this, and he approached our need for energy independence by first assuring the Arab states of his commitment to their stability and safety.

President Trump delivered to those states a list of approved arms and defense agreements during that trip.  In essence, what he was doing was putting the promise of security into actual delivery of tools to retain that security.  Actions speak louder than words.  President Trump also promised to work diligently on peace in the region; a real substantive and genuine peace that would provide security in the big picture.

Over the course of the next few years, Trump delivered on that set of promises with the Abraham Accords.   Yes, economic security as national security applies to our allies as well as ourselves.  Again, actions speak louder than words.

With the U.S. energy independence program in place, President Trump then moved in sequence to the next big thing.

♦ Donald Trump moved to face the challenge of China.   A major shift in U.S. policy that is likely considered the biggest geopolitical shift in the last 75 years.  Trump strategically began with Trade Authority 302 national security Steel and Aluminum tariffs at 25% and 10% not only toward China but targeted globally.

The entire multinational system was stunned at the bold step with tariffs.   But remember, before Trump went to Saudi Arabia, he held a meeting with Chairman Xi Jinping in Mar-a-Lago.  The global trade world was shocked by the tariff announcement, but I’ll bet you a doughnut Chairman Xi was not.

That February 2017 meeting, only one month after his inauguration, was President Trump graciously informing Chairman Xi, in the polite manner that respectful business people do, that a new era in the U.S-China relationship was about to begin.  New trade agreements, new terms and conditions were to be expected in the future.  The tariff announcement hit Wall Street hard, but not Beijing – who knew it was likely.

U.S. financial pundits proclaimed the sky was surely falling.  These tariffs would cause prices to skyrocket, the global order of all things around trade was under attack by Trump.  They waxed and shouted about supply chains being complicated and intertwined amid the modern manufacturing era that was too complex for President Trump to understand with such a heavy handed tariff hammer.   Remember all of that?  Remember how cars were going to cost thousands more, and beer kegs would forever be lost because the orange man had just triggered steel and aluminum tariffs?

Did any of that happen?  No. Of course it didn’t. Actually, the opposite was true and no one could even fathom it.  Communist China first responded by subsidizing all of their industries targeted by the tariffs with free energy and raw materials, etc.  China triggered an immediate reaction to lower their own prices to offset tariffs.  Beijing did not want the heavy industries and factories to start back up again in the U.S, so they reacted with measures to negate the tariff impact.

China’s economy started to feel the pressure and panda was not happy.  Eventually, as the tariffs expanded beyond Steel and Aluminum to other specific segments and categories, China devalued their currency to lower costs even further for U.S. importers.  The net result was something no one could have imagined.  With lower prices, and increased dollar strength, we began importing all Chinese products at cheaper rates than before the tariffs were triggered.  Yes, we began importing deflation.  No one saw that coming…. but Trump did.

While all that initial U.S-China trade shock was taking place, Donald Trump took his next foreign trip to… wait for it…. Southeast Asia.

Just like in the example of the trip to Saudi Arabia, economically-minded Trump told partners and leaders in the export producing countries of Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and ASEAN nations to prepare for additional business and new trade agreements with the U.S., as factories inside China might start to decouple.   Look at how they responded, they did exactly what Trump said would be in their best interests.

To seriously gather the focus of this SE Asia group, President Trump started direct talks with North Korea and Chairman Kim Jong-un for peace and regional stability.  It’s easy to forget just how stunning this was at the time, but generations of people in Asia were jaw-agape at the U.S. President confronting China, engaging with North Korea, and opening his arms to new trade deals with ASEAN partners.

On the world stage of geopolitics and global trade, any one of these moves would be a monumental legacy initiative all by itself.  But together, simultaneously, you can see how the entire continent physically stopped midstride and stood staring at this, this man, this American President, who was just about to step across the Demilitarized Zone in North Korea and shake hands with Chairman Kim…. and, wait for it…. they are smiling.

√ Energy security triggered and friends in Mid-East supported.

√ Mid-East peace initiatives triggered.

√ A return of heavy industry and manufacturing security triggered.

√ A confrontation of Chinese economic influence triggered.

√ Stability between South Korea and North Korea, triggered.

√ New trade deals and economic partnerships with Japan and South Korea, triggered.

And then, as if that was not enough… just as multinational investment groups started realizing they needed to change their outlooks and drop the decades long view of the U.S. as a “service driven economy”… just as they realized they needed to start investing domestically inside the United States for their own growth and financial security… as if all that wasn’t enough… President Trump kicks off an entirely new trade deal and renegotiated standard for all North American trade via NAFTA.

We don’t have to guess at whether Donald Trump can put together a program to ensure Economic Security is National Security.  We don’t have to guess at whether Donald Trump can deliver on economic policy.  We don’t have guess if Trump’s policy platform, proposals and initiatives would be successful.  We have the experience of it.  We have the results of it.  We have felt the success of it.

We also don’t need to guess at who is the best candidate to lead Making America Great Again, we already know who that is.

There is no other 2024 Presidential Candidate, who I am aware of, who could possibly achieve what Donald John Trump has achieved, or who could even fathom contemplating how to achieve a quarter of what President Trump achieved.

Do not tell me Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is a better option. DeSantis is an unknown commodity, a blank slate, when it comes to big picture economic outlooks. DeSantis doesn’t have an economic agenda inside his administration from which to contemplate or analyze his economic views.

Governor Ron DeSantis has a lot of really good skills and policies on the domestic front unique to his position in Florida; however, it is not a slight toward him to point out he has never expressed any larger economic proposal that would give any confidence in a national economic policy.

Look at the sum total of it, and there’s so much more that could be outlined to what Donald Trump achieved and could yet still achieve, it’s not even a close question.

And that my friends is exactly why Donald Trump is under relentless attack from both wings of the UniParty in DC.  Additionally, it is clear the Wall Street Republicans are trying to position Ron DeSantis as an alternative to another Trump term.  Look carefully at the current advocates for DeSantis, Nikki Haley and/or Kristi Noem, and you will note every one of those early voices are attached to favorable Wall Street politics and multinational corporate advocacy.

Look at what Donald J. Trump was able to achieve while he was under constant political attack.  Just imagine what Trump 2.0 would deliver.

They, the leftist Democrats and Wall Street Republicans, are yet again absolutely petrified of that.

Apr 16 2022

Oh SNAP, CNN Reports Biden Polling the Worst Ever Recorded in Presidential Polling History, Even Lower Than Jimmy Carter in 1978


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 15, 2022 | Sundance 

Jumpin’ ju-ju bones, this is rather remarkable.  Two video segments from CNN today highlight just how horrible things are for Democrats this mid-term election year.  No amount of J6 leverage is going to offset the way Americans feel about Joe Biden.

Delivering a summary of the last four most recent and consecutive polls, even CNN had to report that President Joe Biden’s approval is the lowest ever for any president at this point in any presidency.  According to the CNN presentation, Joe Biden is “in a lot of trouble,” as outlined during a segment on CNN’s “New Day” with Brianna Keilar and John Berman.  WATCH:

The second segment is even worse news than the first.  In the second segment they take a look at all modern presidential polling and discover that Joe Biden has a lower approval rating than even Jimmy Carter in 1978.

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Apr 15 2022

Marco Rubio Preparing to Join Biden in Destroying the World Economy


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Apr 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The world has gone completely nuts and now even Republican Marco Rubio is drafting legislation to sanction China. Biden’s sanctions have totally destroyed the world economy, bringing globalization and world peace to an abrupt end. I have written to Marco Rubio in response to his Tweet, but I seriously doubt he will ever respond.

“I realize that the chances of this ever being answered are minus zero. I will nonetheless publish this on ArmsatronEconomics.COM. I have advised nations and I have testified before the House Ways & Means Committee. These sanctions on Russia have already destroyed the world economy ending the integrity of the SWIFT system. Sanctions have NEVER worked even one time in history and every president before Biden sought world peace where now all we see is world war III. All of this nonsense has only ensured the end of the United States as the leader of the world economy. Even SWIFT told Obama no way in 2014 would they remove Russia from the system. Now SWIFT has committed suicide and Biden has divided the world economy. This will never return to normal and your proposal to sanction China is insane. In fact, the arrogance of the United States as the policeman of the world has only led to our inevitable demise. SWIFT is no longer the foundation of the world economy and this is ending the economic status of the dollar and the United States. No nation lasts forever and just as the arrogance of Athens led to the Peloponnesian War; we too have become far too arrogant sealing our own fate out of stupidity. Sanction China and you guarantee their alternative to SWIFT and once you terminate the goodwill, then without trade, they no longer have the incentive to participate in the world economy and thus it is no longer a threat to bit the hand that feeds you.”

The European Union’s relations with China have also plunged to unprecedented new lows. The US has also floated these theories with allies in Europe to sanction China, with absolutely ZERO understanding of how the world economy even functions. World peace is established not by threats and a show or nuclear weapons. It is free trade that bound the Roman Empire together where conquered lands found it beneficial economically to be part of the Empire than on the outside, chucking spears across the border. By removing Russia from SWIFT and now threatening China with sanctions, if they dare to allow Russia to use their alternative, all I can say is the United States is doomed. Biden called Putin a war criminal, yet under this theory, President Johnson was a war criminal for the abuse of soldiers in Vietnam. There are allegations of war crimes against Americans from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria for starters. So is Obama also a war criminal? These sorts of allegations GUARANTEE there will be no peace — EVER!

Marco Rubio mentioned that he is mulling legislation to sanction China if it helps Moscow circumvent SWIFT sanctions. Once the trade is severed, there is no incentive to work together. The only thing that then resolves such disputes is war. We are watching India among many nations viewing the arrogance of America as a deterrent and pushing them into the arms of the alternative economy that is forming.

The US has been funding the Ukrainian Civil War because the Neocon hates Russians. They are now poking China and have the audacity to think threatening China with the same sanctions will cause them to fall to their knees and beg for forgiveness. This thinking is absolute lunacy. The American people are TIRED of endless wars. The US has been sending National Guard troops overseas. Reservists and National Guards are being sent overseas because we do not have the troops necessary. These are people who have families — not 18 years boys sent to die. These are also National Guard troops, who are NOT defending the nation, but other people.

Looking closely at the National Guard’s website informs us that it has not one but two missions. The “state mission,” which you remember from your service, is to “provide trained and disciplined forces for domestic emergencies or as otherwise required by law.” There is also a “federal mission” to “maintain properly trained and equipped units available for prompt mobilization for war, national emergency, or as otherwise needed.” We have had National Guard troops overseas in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere being called in on the basis of this federal mission yet it is questionable if that is legal without a declaration of war.

We need to be mindful that our politicians are quick to send people to die with no regard for their families left behind. There seems to be no serious thought about what is taking place, and it is all playing to the sound-bites.

Apr 15 2022

Smart Investor Article (English Translation Provided)


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I recently appeared on the cover of “Smart Investor” after being approached by journalist Ralph Malisch. Click here to read the full interview (German).

The English translation is available below:

Smart Investor talks to legendary cycle analyst Martin Armstrong about Corona, war and reshaping the world

Smart Investor: Mr. Armstrong, in 2015, The Forecaster, a powerful film about your life, was released. We interviewed you extensively in Smart Investor 5/2015. How have you been doing in the meantime and what are your current projects?
Armstrong:  I was involved in a sequel to the film that will be out later this year. Otherwise, we have expanded our services and have now launched our computer system, which is the system that the government wanted for itself. It now produces over 1,000 written reports every day all over the world without human intervention. We now use it in over 40 countries, which means we probably have the largest institutional customer base in the world.

Smart Investor 5/2015

Smart Investor: Would you briefly explain your forecasting approach to our readers again?
Armstrong:  In the 1980s and 1990s, I was one of the top international hedge fund managers, even being named hedge fund manager of the year for predicting the collapse of Russia, which triggered the 1998 hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management crisis. During that time, I’d watched global investment capital refocus on markets and then move on—leaving Japan in 1989, Southeast Asia in 1994, and Russia in 1998, followed by the euro. All of this was fueled by capital flows. One can follow these movements of capital and see how they cause the boom-bust cycles around the globe.

Smart Investor: The topic of Corona has kept us under its spell for more than two years. Was this turning point, or a drastic event like this, visible in your cycle model?
Armstrong: Yes, I warned at our own World Economic Conference that if our model flipped in January 2020 (= year 2020.05) the market would crash. We were even able to pinpoint the exact day for the March 2020 bottom. Had an event like Corona happened during an uptrend, it would have been largely ignored. But if something like this happens while the model is turning down, then sentiment is inherently bearish. We also warned that there would be a scarcity-based commodity cycle from January 2020 to 2024.

Smart Investor: In our perception, major pandemics occur with a certain regularity. Have you thought about some kind of plague cycle and how it might continue?
Armstrong: Such epidemics have always existed – but never in history have governments reacted so madly. The global lockdown has cost jobs and created bottlenecks in supply chains that will persist for several years to come. It was an absurd response that was proven wrong and caused a lot more damage. Most people know someone who got sick from COVID but didn’t die from it. Those who died would likely have died from any form of respiratory disease, such as occurs during the annual cycle of influenza. It was not a dangerous plague that killed 30% to 50% of the population like smallpox or the black plague in the 14th century.

Smart Investor: Now a new dominant event has been triggered with the hot war in Ukraine. How does this war fit into your model, specifically the war cycle?
Armstrong: That too came at exactly the “right” time. Our model showed 1/16/2022. Unfortunately, instead of trying to bring peace to the world, the West has demonized Putin. The claim that Putin wanted to restore the old Soviet Union was pure propaganda. For the past 22 years he has made no attempt to restore communism, only calling Lenin himself a communist. He did not try to expand the borders but warned against NATO encroachment. In war, both sides spread propaganda, and it is always important to be objective about the claims of both sides. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was consistent with his warnings and came four days after US Vice President Harris recommended Ukraine join NATO. That was totally irresponsible.

Smart Investor: Can you see in your models which regions or countries will suffer the most in this conflict, who will get off lightly and who will be the beneficiaries?
Armstrong: On both sides there are what we call neocons, people who just hate the other side. They cannot sleep at night as long as their enemy exists. Unfortunately, the deteriorating economic outlook is a reminder that war has often served as a diversionary tactic in the past. It looks like China is allying itself with Russia. I believe the confiscation of Russian private property was a serious violation of international law. Others, too, will realize that their assets could be confiscated if their country got into a dispute with the West. This would, of course, lead to a drop in global investment. It is precisely this process that seems to have started and, according to our models, will only get much worse over the next ten years. Disputes between countries are likely to remain at this level. The arrest of individuals simply because they are Russian is reminiscent of the internment camps for Japanese in the US during World War II solely on the basis of their ethnicity. It is very detrimental to the world economy when free investment is hampered.

Image: © Angelov – stock.adobe.com

Smart Investor: If we understand it correctly, the cycles develop largely independently of the specific actions of individuals. It’s hard to imagine, but would an escalation have been inevitable even if the Russian President hadn’t given the order for the invasion?
Armstrong: That’s right. Demonizing Putin is absurd. There have been far worse leaders in history, like Hitler or Stalin, who could kill millions of people without thinking twice. The development of things is primarily determined by the economy. Normally you don’t bite the hand that feeds you. But imposing sanctions on Russia has exactly the opposite effect: they isolate Russia and sever economic ties, leading to casualties and in turn evoking anger and retaliation. Rome survived for 1,000 years because the conquered provinces benefited from selling their products to Rome. The confiscation of Russia’s currency reserves is above all a warning to China to be very careful in its dealings with the West. For China, the exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT system only means that it is working flat out to introduce its variant of CIPS. Saudi Arabia just agreed to sell oil for yuan. These measures only guarantee that conflicts will continue to escalate and the world economy will be split in half.

Smart Investor: As investors, we try to prepare for strong cycles like these. Which asset classes or sectors should one avoid in this situation and where can one expect safety?
Armstrong:  Government bonds in particular are to be avoided. Governments will default and you will get nothing back. The loans from European governments from before the Second World War are now just an attractive wall decoration. When a company goes bust, its assets are sold and at least you get something back. But you can’t just run into the art museum and steal Picassos in the government. In times of war and geopolitical conflict, real assets are the best security.

Smart Investor: Gold is considered the safe haven, and Bitcoin is also perceived as such in some places. However, these two assets are also more of a thorn in the side of our governments. What do you think of the idea that the Russia argument could make life difficult for investors here in the future?
Armstrong: Gold has lost its mobility – so you can’t hop on a plane and fly somewhere with a briefcase full of gold coins or bars. Cryptocurrencies are vulnerable, because without a power grid, credit cards are a thing of the past. The government is trying to switch to digital currencies and they will not allow competition so they will confiscate cryptocurrencies. The best is paper money or small denomination silver coins that are recognizable to the average person. Tin cans will also have an exchange value if there is no electricity grid.

Smart Investor: Gold and cryptocurrencies are also the main alternatives to paper money, which the war is putting additional pressure on. Will the US dollar and euro survive this?
Armstrong:  The US dollar will outlast the euro, but if we get into a real world war, the paper dollars could lose their value too. Europe has historically canceled its fiat money, while the
US dollar has never been cancelled. Even Canada is now nullifying its currency.

Smart Investor: The Great Reset, the World Economic Forum and Prof. Dr. Klaus Schwab are making waves in Europe. During the corona pandemic, the government measures literally dismantled the medium-sized economy. What do you think of the corporations’ “Big Plan” and are the actors’ ideas compatible with the cycles?
Armstrong: The Great Reset is indeed a real goal. It’s not a conspiracy theory. The three stumbling blocks along the way were Trump, Putin and Xi. They got rid of the first one, and now the propaganda has turned to demonizing Putin and Xi. They believe that if they get rid of these two leaders, they can unite the world under the United Nations. Our models have warned that authoritarianism will rise in this final decade. But they will fail. Marx succeeded only because serfdom in Russia did not end until 1861, while in Europe it only lasted until the fourteenth century. So the people owned nothing, and it was easy to confiscate the wealth of the aristocrats. Today people own their own houses, cars and save for the future. The slogan “You will have nothing and be happy” propagated by the WEF is a red herring. Governments can no longer borrow indefinitely and there will be a default. To disguise this fact, the impression is given that all debts are being forgiven and that they are doing it for you. The guaranteed basic income will be there to replace the pension funds that hold government debt today.

Smart Investor: Thank you very much for your very interesting explanations.

In stock market circles, the American Martin Armstrong (born 1949) is considered a legend. As early as the early 1980s, he correctly predicted the stock market crash of 1987 – and in the midst of the panic he predicted new highs for 1989. He also predicted the bursting of the Japanese stock bubble at the end of 1989. He made his forecasts using the “Economic Confidence Model” (ECM) he developed himself, which is based on a database on the history of coins, which Armstrong used to reconstruct the (financial) history. You can find his daily updated assessments on the blog https://armstrongeconomics.com .

Apr 15 2022

Father Explains Socialism to Son


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Apr 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Apr 15 2022

Inflation & the Cost of Labor = Unemployment Decline of the USA


Armstrong Economocs Blog/Economics Re-Posted Apr 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

To me, it is fascinating how everything dovetails in together when the computer is monitoring everything on a global scale. The projection that unemployment could reach 15% in 2020 not only came true, but it did so tied into the whole COVID scam which has provided the mechanism for government control over the population and to implement one aspect of the intended Agenda 2030 and the elimination of Democracy. But more serious than that, we still face the risk of more than 25% unemployment in the post-2024 period.

Right now, everywhere I do I see help wanted signs. Even at FedEx the other day I saw a sign help wanted. There is another aspect to this inflation and GREEN regulation that is undermining the entire world economy. We are already short over 80,000 truck drivers and then California imposing demands that Trucks must now comply with their insane regulations by January will kill off even more trucks and we can expect inflation to well exceed 20% even in their manipulated statistics.

The higher the inflation, the lower the net real wages, and this then compels small businesses to raise wages but this produces COST-PUSH inflation on top of the SHORTAGE-INFLATION and this is a lethal combination for the economy going forward. This means small businesses will decline unable to find employees and the higher the inflation, the fewer people can afford to buy. This all combines to the WORST economic outlook possible post-2024.

So stock up on that food. This is going to get much worse. With all the threats the US hurls now at China, they may think they are a Lion when they look in the mirror, but if I was China, locking down Shanghai which is the busiest port in the world will not only further wipe out trucking companies in the USA, but it will result in a further jump in inflation. So threatening sanctions against China will worsen the economy and we have already divided the world economy by ending Globalization. This is eventually the end of the United States and the dollar. Even the IMF has come out and warned this is undermining the dollar as the reserve currency.

We have the WORST possible crop of politicians in charge and they are just jumping on the bandwagon to hate Putin without ever understanding that they have dealt a permanent death blow to the world economy. Thus, our projection on unemployment may sound instance exceeding the highs of the Great Depression, but the inflation is reducing the living standards and the reduces economic activity, and that in turn results in businesses failing and jobs vanishing.

The United States has abused its position and it may think that it is a Lion, but it has been reduced to just a cat. They should pay attention to the military. The Pentagon has been trying to throw cold water on this heated invasion talk over Russia and threatening China with sanctions if they dare to help Russia is just insane. They know they are far stronger with Russia than to let Russia fall and the West would only then turn against them. There is deep concern that the USA will lose in a war with China. These politicians had better look at reality rather than the image they see in the mirror.

History repeats became human nature never changes. Although Athens was enjoying a golden age while led by Pericles, this soon came to an end and thus began the fall of Athens in 431 BC when the 27-year-long Peloponnesian War began. Athens became extremely arrogant and compelled others to donate to their treasury to protect them against another invasion by the Persians which did not happen – today’s Russia. This led to discontent and the image of Athens became tainted by arrogance.

Sparta, which was a communist society, had longed for dominance in Greece. In May of 431 BC, war broke out between Athens and Sparta. The Peloponnesian War (431–404 BC) was fought between the Delian League, which was led by Athens, and the Peloponnesian League, which was led by Sparta. Historians have traditionally divided the war into three phases. However, there were two major causes of the rise and fall of Athens. First is the conflict between the oligarchy and democracy, and its arrogance. The democracy produced many great leaders, but unfortunately, also many bad leaders. Their arrogance lived off of the past glory of the great leaders during the Persian Wars, and it led to the end of Athenian power in Greece.

The decline and fall of the United States is following the very same pages from history. It is the arrogance of the United States threatening China while attempting to destroy Russia that will be what historians write about when the dust settles.

Apr 15 2022

In His Own Words, Elon Musk Explains Why He Tendered an Offer to Purchase Twitter (Video)


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 14, 2022 | Sundance

Appearing on Stage in Vancouver earlier today with the head of TED Chris Anderson, Elon Musk discusses why he has made a financial bid to purchase the social media platform Twitter.  The video is prompted to 11:40 when Musk takes the stage, the first part of the conversation surrounds the Twitter announcement that had made global headlines only a few hours earlier.  WATCH:

Apr 15 2022

Elon Musk Makes a Massive Proposal, Offers to Purchase Twitter for $41 Billion With Plan to Take Company Private


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 14, 2022 | sundance

April 14, 2022 | sundance | 553 Comments

The richest man in the world, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, made an offer to purchase the Twitter platform for a price of $41 billion.  The offer represents a value of 38% more than the current evaluation.  [SEC FILING HERE]  The offer is filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission proposing a full takeover for $54.20 per share in cash.

Within the filing Elon Musk states his intentions:

“I invested in Twitter as I believe in its potential to be the platform for free speech around the globe, and I believe free speech is a societal imperative for a functioning democracy.  However, since making my investment I now realize the company will neither thrive nor serve this societal imperative in its current form. Twitter needs to be transformed as a private company.

As a result, I am offering to buy 100% of Twitter for $54.20 per share in cash, a 54% premium over the day before I began investing in Twitter and a 38% premium over the day before my investment was publicly announced. My offer is my best and final offer and if it is not accepted, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder. Twitter has extraordinary potential.  I will unlock it. (SEC LINK)

What Elon Musk appears to be doing is perhaps the biggest story that few understand.

I share this perspective having spent thousands of hours in the past several years deep in the weeds of tech operating systems, communication platforms, and the issue of simultaneous users.   What Twitter represents, and what Musk is attempting, is not what most would think.

In the big picture of tech platforms, Twitter, as an operating model, is a massive high-user commenting system.

Twitter is not a platform built around a website; Twitter is a platform for comments and discussion that operates in the sphere of social media.  As a consequence, the technology and data processing required to operate the platform does not have an economy of scale.

There is no business model where Twitter is financially viable to operate…. UNLESS the tech architecture under the platform was subsidized.

In my opinion, there is only one technological system and entity that could possibly underwrite the cost of Twitter to operate.  That entity is the United States Government, and here’s why.

Unlike websites and other social media, Twitter is unique in that it only represents a platform for user engagement and discussion.  There is no content other than commentary, discussion and the sharing of information – such as linking to other information, pictures, graphics, videos url links etc.

In essence, Twitter is like the commenting system on the CTH website.  It is the global commenting system for users to share information and debate.  It is, in some ways, like the public square of global discussion.   However, the key point is that user engagement on the platform creates a massive amount of data demand.

Within the systems of technology for public (user engagement) commenting, there is no economy of scale.  Each added user represents an increased cost to the operation of the platform, because each user engagement demands database performance to respond to the simultaneous users on the platform.  The term “simultaneous users” is critical to understand because that drives the cost.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Twitter has approximately 217 million registered daily users, and their goal is to expand to 315 million users by the end of 2023.   Let me explain why things are not what they seem.

When people, users, operate on a tech platform using the engagement features, writing comments, hitting likes, posting images, links etc, the user is sending a data request to the platforms servers.  The servers must then respond allowing all simultaneous users to see the change triggered by the single user.

Example: when you hit the “like” button feature on an engagement system, the response (like increasing by one) must not only be visible to you, but must also be visible to those simultaneously looking at the action you took.   If 100,000 simultaneous users are looking at the same thing, the database must deliver the response to 100,000 people.  As a result, the number of simultaneous users on a user engagement platform drives massive performance costs.  In the example above, a single action by one person requires the server to respond to 100,000 simultaneous users with the updated data.

As a consequence, when a commenting platform increases in users, the cost not only increases because of that one user, the cost increases because the servers need to respond to all the simultaneous users.   Using CTH as an example, 10,000 to 15,000 simultaneous commenting system users, engaging with the servers, costs around $4,500/mo.

This is why most websites, even big media websites, do not have proprietary user engagement, i.e. commenting systems.  Instead, most websites use third party providers like Disqus who run the commenting systems on their own servers.  Their commenting systems are plugged in to the website; that defers the cost from the website operator, and the third party can function as a business by selling ads and controlling the user experience.  [It also sucks because user privacy is non existent]

The key to understanding the Twitter dynamic is to see the difference between, (a) running a website, where it doesn’t really matter how many people come to look at the content (low server costs), and (b) running a user engagement system, where the costs to accommodate the data processing -which increase exponentially with a higher number of simultaneous users- are extremely expensive.   Twitter’s entire platform is based on the latter.

There is no economy of scale in any simultaneous user engagement system.  Every added user costs exponentially more in data-processing demand, because every user needs a response, and every simultaneous user (follower) requires the same simultaneous response.  A Twitter user with 100 followers (simultaneously logged in) that takes an action – costs less than a Twitter user with 100,000 followers (simultaneously logged in), that takes an action.

If you understand the cost increases in the data demand for simultaneous users, you can see the business model for Twitter is non-existent.

Bottom line, more users means it costs Twitter more money to operate.  The business model is backwards from traditional business.  More customers = higher costs, because each customer brings more simultaneous users….. which means exponentially more data performance is needed.

User engagement features on Twitter are significant, because that’s all Twitter does.  Not only can users write comments, graphics, memes, videos, but they can also like comments, retweet comments, subtweet comments, bookmark comments, and participate in DM systems.  That is a massive amount of server/data performance demand, and when you consider simultaneous users, it’s almost unimaginable in scale.  That cost and capacity is also the reason why Twitter does not have an edit function.

With 217 million users, you could expect 50 million simultaneous users on Twitter during peak operating times.  My back of the envelope calculations, which are really just estimations based on known industry costs for data performance and functions per second, would put the data cost to operate Twitter around at least $1 billion per month (minimum).  In 2021, Twitter generated $5.1 billion in revenue, according to the Wall Street Journal.

There is no business model, even with paying subscribers, for Twitter to exist.  As the business grows, the costs increase, and the costs to subscribers would grow.  So, what is going on?

The only way Twitter, with 217 million users, could exist as a viable platform is if they had access to tech systems of incredible scale and performance, and those systems were essentially free or very cheap.  The only entity that could possibly provide that level of capacity and scale is the United States Government – combined with a bottomless bank account.

If my hunch is correct, Elon Musk is poised to expose the well-kept secret that most social media platforms are operating on U.S. government tech infrastructure and indirect subsidy.  Let that sink in.

The U.S. technology system, the assembled massive system of connected databases and server networks, is the operating infrastructure that offsets the cost of Twitter to run their own servers and database.  The backbone of Twitter is the United States government.

There is simply no way the Fourth Branch of Government, the U.S. intelligence system writ large, is going to permit that discovery.

Apr 14 2022

In the old days, we gathered in the town square…


Posted on Rumble by Tulsi Gabbard  originally Published on April 13, 2022 

Social media platforms serve as our virtual town squares. But if they deny us our right to free speech, our democratic republic cannot survive. John Adams said, “A Constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Liberty once lost is lost forever.”