Posted originally on Aug 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

History shows that diplomacy, international cooperation, and economic interdependence have been the only ways to prevent wars. But overcoming deep-seated motives for conflict remains an impossible challenge.

Power & Control (Leaders or nations may seek dominance over others)
Fear of losing power (Leaders will start conflicts to divert attention from internal problems)
Resources & Economic Gain (Wars are often fought over valuable resources like oil, water, minerals, or trade routes)
Ideology & Belief Systems (Religious, nationalist, or political extremism, like communism vs capitalism, has fueled hatred and justified war)
Fear & Security Concerns (Leaders may order preemptive strikes from perceived threats)
Revenge & Retribution (Historical grievances, past defeats, or ethnic/sectarian tensions)
Miscalculation & Escalation (Diplomacy fails, assassinations, border clashes spiral into larger wars)
Alliances (like those before WWI) can drag multiple nations into war.
Human Nature (Many believe aggression is innate (evolutionary survival instinct), remains in some
while others believe war is a learned behavior shaped by culture and institutions.)
Tribalism (favoring one’s own group over others has led to wars.)

Historical evidence suggests that major military campaigns and invasions have more frequently begun in spring or summer rather than winter. It seems that perhaps we need a personality test to cull out people who would create war as a personality defect. Yet, even in market activity, there has been this mysterious aspect where investment trends shift to liquidation trends at the end of the summer. Do wars and market liquidations somehow influence seasonal trends?

Historically, August has been a significant period for war, just as Sepetember often produces those major highs or when markets began to crash, like in 1929. Many have pondered the August/September time period for political and financial upheavals. For example, here is just a brief overview of when stock markets began to crash or peaked and started falling in September, similar to 1929:

1929 – Great Depression Prelude September 3, 1929: The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked.

1987 – Black Monday Prelude late September 1987, markets became volatile, with signs of strain building, followed by a crash on October 19, 1987.

2000 – Dot-Com Bubble Deflation saw the Nasdaq had already started declining in March 2000, but many tech stocks began sharper declines again in September as earnings missed and sentiment turned negative.

2001 – Post-9/11 Crash came on September 17, 2001 (markets reopened after 9/11): Major indices fell 7–14% that week.

2008 – Global Financial Crisis Escalation saw Lehman Brothers collapse on September 15, 2008.

2022 – Inflation & Rate Hike Driven Decline after a bear market rally in summer, markets reversed sharply in mid-September due to inflation and Fed rate hike signals. The September 13, 2022 CPI report triggered a 4–5% drop in one day, one of the worst days in years.

World War I (August 1, 1914): The global conflict began when Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. This triggered a chain reaction of alliances, leading to a world war. Germany declared war on Russia on August 1st, 1914.

Gulf War (August 2, 1990): Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, invaded Kuwait, prompting a U.S.-led coalition response. The conflict escalated quickly with Operation Desert Shield and later Desert Storm.

Seven Years’ War (August 29, 1756): Often considered a global conflict, it began with Frederick the Great of Prussia’s invasion of Saxony, drawing in major European powers and their colonies.

Many significant battles have occurred in August throughout history. Of course, the most famous was none other than the Battle of Thermopylae (480 BC, August) when the famous stand of 300 Spartans under King Leonidas against the Persian army led by Xerxes in Greece.

The Battle of Cannae (August 2nd, 216 BC) saw Hannibal’s Carthaginian army annihilate a much larger Roman force in one of history’s most significant tactical victories in military history.

The Battle of Actium was when Octavian/Augustus defeated Mark Antony and Cleopatra. They were preparing for the battle in late August and the final battle took place on September 2nd, 31BC . This was the end of the Roman Republic, and Octavian emerged as Augustus, giving birth to imperial Rome.

There was the Battle of Maserfield (642AD, August 5), which was fought near present-day Oswestry in Shropshire, England. It was a significant conflict between the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms of Northumbria and Mercia. The battle weakened Northumbria, leading to its temporary division into Bernicia and Deira. Mercia, under Penda, emerged as a dominant power in central England.

Then there was the famous Battle of Hastings (1066AD, October 14, but with August preparations), when William the Conqueror’s invasion began taking shape in August with Norman forces gathering.

The Battle of Bosworth Field (1485AD, August 22): Decisive battle of the Wars of the Roses, where Henry Tudor defeated Richard III, becoming King Henry VII of England.

The Battle of Blenheim (1704AD, August 13), was a significant victory for the Grand Alliance (comprising England, Austria, and the Netherlands) against the French and Bavarian forces during the War of the Spanish Succession. This battle marked a turning point in the war, demonstrating the vulnerability of the French army and ensuring the safety of Vienna from invasion. It was a significant victory for the Grand Alliance (led by John Churchill, Duke of Marlborough) against France in the War of the Spanish Succession.

The Battle of Tannenberg (1914AD, August 26–30) was a significant conflict during World War I, fought between August 23 and August 30, 1914, in East Prussia (now Poland). It involved the German Eighth Army against the Russian First and Second Armies. World War I battle where Germany defeated Russia on the Eastern Front.

The Battle of Stalingrad (August 23, 1942 – February 2, 1943) was a major World War II battle between Nazi Germany and its allies against the Soviet Union for control of Stalingrad (now Volgograd), a key industrial and strategic city on the Volga River. It is considered one of the bloodiest and most decisive battles in history. A turning point in World War II, where Soviet forces eventually defeated the German army after brutal fighting.

The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki occurred on August 6, 1945, and August 9, 1945, respectively, during World War II. The United States dropped the first atomic bomb, “Little Boy,” on Hiroshima at approximately 8:15 AM local time, followed by the second bomb, “Fat Man,” on Nagasaki at around 11:02 AM local time.

On August 15th, 1920, this was when Communist Russia invaded newly independent Poland, and they defeated what many assumed was an invincible Red Army. This was the Battle of Warsaw, the free world’s first significant victory over communism. Poles refer to this victory as the “Miracle on the Vistula.”

The Warsaw Uprising, which began on August 1, 1944, was a major World War II operation by the Polish underground resistance of some 40,000, led by the Home Army (Armia Krajowa), to liberate Warsaw from Nazi German occupation. It lasted 63 days (until October 2, 1944) and was known as Operation “Tempest” (Burza).