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Gold v Dollar
Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Jan 11, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION #1: Marty,
Thanks for your interesting post about gold and China.
Which do you think will perform better this year, gold or the dollar?
Thank you.
DM
QUESTION #2: Marty, obviously the motive behind China buying gold is critical. I tried to explain that to a goldbug. It went in one ear and out the other. Russia and China have separate motives from the rest of the world. Correct?
Lee
ANSWER: Absolutely. Only a goldbug thinks motives are irrelevant as long as gold rises. Short-covering is not buying buy squaring off positions. Then you have retail buying and institutional buying. I was helping the Japanese circumvent the US trade sanction threats by purchasing gold on COMEX and then selling it back in London. It did not matter what you bought. The trade statistics only measure money flows – not goods. So, I was using gold to reduce the trade surplus of Japan buying gold in NYC (as it it was a product) and shipping it out to London. The buying was irrelevant to the trend. Just because someone buys gold does not make them bullish at all.
What you need to understand is that China is not buying gold because they are bullish on gold. They cannot hold US or EU debt and therefore you will continue to see them liquidating Western sovereign assets. That will not be the case for others inside the West. They will remain holding debt that pays interest where gold does not. Those who have been brainwashed about fiat and gold and inflation are so entrenched in their thinking, they will never see that the difference in motive has nothing to do with gold at all, but geopolitical events as we head into 2032. So they keep looking at balance sheets at the Fed and inflation and miss the real trend altogether.
We have private interests that do NOT have the same motives as China or Russia. Those are high net-worth individuals and institutions who will prefer the more liquid assets of equities and short-term debt like T-Bills. We have NOT reached the point where there is a total collapse in the faith of the dollar or the US government as of yet. Keep in mind that 50% of Americans still believe in Biden somehow and are consumed with their hate of Trump which prevents them from seeing the real trend.
Society is being so dumbed-down by the media that we are sleepwalking into WWIII and cheering it at the same time. They think war is a video game. We bomb and kill people elsewhere and it never affects us at home.
The dollar is not finished. It is the most hated currency perhaps in history. But that is also because people have been manipulated into thinking that money is fiat and keep preaching the days of returning to some sort of gold standard. The problem with that theory is it demands fiscal responsibility and you will NEVER sell that idea to politicians. They cannot survive without bribing people for votes. That means they MUST end Democracy and that is the main objective of Schwab and the WEF.
The backing of the dollar has NOTHING to do with commodities. If that were the case, Japan and Germany should never have risen to the top tier in the world economy. I am NOT an academic. I have worked on every continent and actually visited more central banks than probably any analyst ever. What I have seen is how things work, not theory. That is why some people hate my guts. The TRUE wealth of every nation is its people and their productive ability. The more leftist the government, the worse the economic growth and the lower the standard of living. That is the power behind the dollar and it has NOTHING to do even with the quantity because 70% of paper dollars reside outside the USA.
Remember the Money Plane. Skids of $100 bills were being sent to Russia every week to satisfy the demand. When the new $100 bill took place, anyone flying internationally saw videos on planes telling them that the old $100 bills were still valid and were NOT canceled as they do in Europe.
Perhaps by 2028, you will see the dollar fade away into the sunset. But for now! These insane world leaders are pushing for war. Sweden has just announced a military draft. Europe is not going to survive this one.
Hoards in History
Armstrong Economics Blog/Hoards Re-Posted Jan 11, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I find it fascinating how you bring much more detail to life in your work. I have read your latest book Plot to Seize Russia. I knew many of those events took place but never the background. What an excellent job. You have to get this out in paperback for the world to see.
My question is about hoards of ancient coins. What was the biggest hoard ever discovered?
PH
REPLY: The First Edition is sold out. We are rushing the Second Edition to our publisher and it will be on a less expensive paper to try to bring down the cost. It will then be available on Amazon and Barnes and Noble, etc. Probably the most famous was the Boscorelli Hoard.
The biggest hoard of Roman gold coins ever discovered was the Hoxne Hoard is the largest cache of late Roman gold found anywhere in the Roman Empire. It was discovered by a metal detectorist in Hoxne in Suffolk, England, in the east of England in 1992 containing 14,865 late-4th and early-5th century AD Roman gold, silver, and bronze coins. There were also 200 items of silver tableware and gold jewelry items. The hoard amounts to a total of 7.7lb of gold and 52.4 lb of silver. He reported his discovery immediately and the cache was professionally excavated by archaeologists and conserved soon afterward so the vital context of the objects and their condition were preserved. The coins were the source to date the hoard to the early 5th century AD in the aftermath of the end of the Roman occupation of Britain. Hence, the political chaos inspired the owner to stash his fortunes. Obviously, he did not survive.
Perhaps one of the most famous discoveries from Pompeii is known as the Boscoreale Treasure. This discovery came to light in 1895, when the treasure was uncovered among volcanic ash from the eruption of Mount Vesuvius on August 24, 79 AD. In 1895, excavations at a Roman villa at Boscoreale on the slopes of Vesuvius unearthed a remarkable hoard of coins, 109 items of silverware, and over 1,000 gold aurei, the latest of which dates to 78 AD with many pieces dating back decades prior, such as the gold aureus of Nero (54-68 AD). The villa that held the coins lay undisturbed until 1876, yet the coin hoard lay undiscovered for almost another 30 years. The original owner hid the treasure in a wine tank prior to the eruption, so it was not immediately discovered.
Unfortunately, there was never a formal study of the Boscoreale coins prior to being dispersed into the market. Consequently, we do not know the full extent of the find. Nevertheless, the coins are easily identifiable for a distinctive feature of this hoard from Boscoreale is their deep red toning, and the term “Boscoreale” is now used in auction catalogs to describe similar discoloration on any Roman gold. The coinage of Boscoreale does tend to be well preserved.
The Boscoreale treasure included a remarkable set of tableware reflecting the quality of Roman silverwork in the 1st century AD. The decoration on these two cups illustrates a most curious theme. There are Epicurean maxims (engraved in dots) and the skeletons of poets and Greek philosophers, representing an invitation to enjoy the present for death comes to us all.
These two silver cups pictured here, are famous for their strange decoration. A Latin inscription on the base of one of the cups gives their weight and the name of their owner, Gavia.
The ring of skeletons depicted on these two cups has similar and complementary decorations depicting tragic and comic poets, as well as famous Greek philosophers, beneath a garland of roses. Greek inscriptions engraved in dots form captions and are accompanied by Epicurean maxims such as, “Enjoy life while you can, for tomorrow is uncertain.” Clotho, one of the Fates, looks on as Menander, Euripides, Archilochus, Monimus the Cynic, Demetrius of Phalera, Sophocles, and Moschion provide a caustic and ironic illustration of the fragility and vanity of the human condition. But the main message of the cups’ decoration is that life should be enjoyed to the fullest. Zeno and Epicurus, the founders of the Stoic and Epicurean philosophies in the 4th century BC, confront each other before two mating dogs — a detail of some significance, as it represents the triumph of Epicureanism.
Silver and gold coins from ancient times have survived, as well as bronze. Silver can be affected by the sea and at times when it is debased. Bronze requires certain conditions to survive in good form. So if you intend to bury your gold and silver in the backyard, keep in mind that humanity has been doing this in times of trouble since before recorded history.
Beware the Plot Behind Interest Rates
Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted Jan 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain before you understand the real trend. It is true that Federal Reserve officials are committed to fighting inflation and expect higher interest rates to remain in place until more progress is made, according to minutes released from the central bank’s December meeting. Also what has been reported is that at that meeting, policymakers expressed the importance of keeping the restrictive policy in place while inflation holds unacceptably high.
Now let’s look behind the curtail for just a peek. War ALWAYS impacts interest rates and they traditionally rise in periods of such conflict. After Europe kept rates NEGATIVE from 2014, that means every bond they sold for 8 years is now losing money. This was the bond crisis in London and then you had Janet Yellen come out and revealed the real silent worry.
Yellen came out and proposed that the Treasury buy in long-term debt and swap it for short-term. Some were out there claiming the Treasury was competing with the Fed as a second central bank. That just illustrated how much they do not understand what is going on or even how the monetary system works. The proposal was NOT another QE. The Treasury cannot create money as can the Fed. She was talking about a SWAP because the long-term debt is in crisis mode with the coming war. Smart players want to swap long-term for the short-term.
China has been dumping bonds since late 2021 as Biden has been claiming the US will defend Taiwan. I can confirm that under EVERY possible military play, the US will lose. I have reported this before. The US cannot defeat China – PERIOD! With China now selling off US debt and shifting to gold, they are seeking to insulate themselves from any Western currency since Biden violated every international law to impose sanctions on Russia. China elected Xi Jinping because Pelosi when to Taiwan just before the election confirming that we are headed to war.
Against this backdrop, the Fed CANNOT lower interest rates. This is NOT 100% about inflation anymore. The Fed realizes that the Biden Administration is determined to create World War III. As we are heading into a war they must adopt a war posture as well. Hence, interest rates will remain firm because not just inflation driven by shortages, but by the fact that the long-term liquidation continues, and lowering interest rates would now cause a capital crisis when staring war in the eyes.
Brazil Election Fraud
Armstrong Economics Blog/South America Re-Posted Jan 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
The riots in Brazil over the rigging of the election are on point. You cannot allow a razor-thin pretend majority to completely go against the opposite and inflict a leftist agenda. This is the abuse of our election process of a worldwide basis. Governments no long represent ALL the people, but one group violently against another. This same process is undermining both the United States, Canada as well as Europe. This leftist agenda is destroying our civilization and this is right on schedule – 34 years from the collapse of communism. It is now our turn for this abuse of government to divide the people and the nation and ONLY will lead to civil war.
Bolsonaro 2019 WEC & Why He Had to be Removed as President
Bolsonaro was targeted by the WEF and their consortium. The Brazilian elections were rigged. They had to remove Bolsonaro at all costs and now we will witness the price for those corrupt elections. The violence is likely to escalate into March.
What’s Going on with Gold?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Jan 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
The goldbugs are cheering that there has been a central bank buying of gold. They think somehow that this is because they are bullish on gold. What seems to be going over their heads is what I warned before – when China starts to sell US debt, war is coming. I have made it very clear that the precursor to war is always capital flows. That will be on steroids this year.
My clients taught me how capital and war move. At conferences, I stated that we were advising the Universal Bank of Lebanon. They found a ledger in the basement where someone wrote down the price of the Lebanese pound every day into the 19th century. They asked if we could build a model. I said sure! Here is a chart from back then. Our model warned that their currency would drop dramatically in 8 days. I thought there was something wrong with the data. Needless to say, I formed the client what the computer said and I commented that something had to be wrong. Very calmly, they asked what currency would be best. I said the Swiss franc. 8 days later the civil war began. The computer was correct. Then the same thing happened with the Iraq-Iran war.
By 1998, I understood the model’s ability to forecast war. I have never created a model to do that. It figured it out all on its lonesome. I stood up in June 1998 in our London WEC and warned that Russia would collapse in about 30 days. The London Financial Times reported that forecast and that became the collapse of the Russian debt market and Long-Term Capital Management debacle.
I have warned that if China was preparing to invade Taiwan, then they would start to sell off all US government debt. They would not risk owning US government bonds and watch Biden freeze it all and then claim it will be used to rebuild Taiwan as they are doing to Russia. So China began selling off US debt at the end of 2021. They have been buying gold because they cannot hold US or EU debt in time of war. It is as simple as that. The gold is simply neutrality, for it also does not pay interest. – So much for the inflation nonsense.
Feds Proposing to Ban Natural Gas Stoves for Cooking
Posted originally on the CTH on January 9, 2023 | sundance
The timing here is genuinely ridiculous. It’s as if the federal government, specifically the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, led by… Richard Trumka Jr (yes, that guy’s son)… doesn’t think or care that we can see the real issue is to change energy uses.
Now that Russia has been isolated from natural gas sales, the European Union needs the supply of all other natural gas markets in order to keep itself from freezing to death. Simultaneously, natural gas as an energy resource is now bad, terrible like oil and coal, amid the climate change cult.
So, they need to change the narrative and stop people from using natural gas appliances.
Suddenly, after generations of natural gas appliances existing in almost half of the kitchens, suddenly the appliances are toxic, dangerous and likely to require a ban against use.
(Bloomberg) – A federal agency says a ban on gas stoves is on the table amid rising concern about harmful indoor air pollutants emitted by the appliances.
The US Consumer Product Safety Commission plans to take action to address the pollution, which can cause health and respiratory problems. “This is a hidden hazard,” Richard Trumka Jr., an agency commissioner, said in an interview. “Any option is on the table. Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.”
Natural gas stoves, which are used in about 40% of homes in the US, emit air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter at levels the EPA and World Health Organization have said are unsafe and linked to respiratory illness, cardiovascular problems, cancer, and other health conditions, according to reports by groups such as the Institute for Policy Integrity and the American Chemical Society. Consumer Reports, in October, urged consumers planning to buy a new range to consider going electric after tests conducted by the group found high levels of nitrogen oxide gases from gas stoves.
New peer-reviewed research published last month in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health found that more than 12% of current childhood asthma cases in the US can be attributed to gas stove use. (read more)
Its peer reviewed they say. Carved in stone tablets it must be… Just like the vaccine and other health papers and studies… Swear.
Comrade citizens, you must gather twigs, carry flint rocks, eat bugs and sustainable algae cakes, and adapt your parasitic lifestyle to become the best citizen that planet earth deserves. There can be no gas appliances in your tiny house.
All good comrade citizens who care about their carbon footprint are removing gas stoves and returning to heating water atop open fires in order to comply with the permitted bathing requirement each month, while staying safely your water distribution allotment.
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With Biden in Mexico, Here Comes the Push to Join North American Green New Deal
Posted originally on the CTH on January 9, 2023 | sundance
Joe Biden is in Mexico for the U.S-Mexico-Canada North American Summit, and as we have said the demands from the U.S and Canada to join the western climate change energy agenda immediately come to the forefront.
As National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan briefs the traveling press corps, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm starts tweeting in support of the overall narrative.
The overall effort is designed to force Mexico to join the western Build Back Better energy policy agenda, known domestically as the Green New Deal.
Previously Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador has pushed back against the pressure from the U.S. and told Joe Biden his nation would remain focused on economic gains, that includes the use of traditional Oil, Coal and Natural Gas resources. However, the corporations and multinational financial constructs who control the Biden and Trudeau administrations, WEF types, are not going to accept that.
It is within this very consequential economic dynamic that we begin to see a host of other ancillary geopolitical aspects start to build against the AMLO administration, to include cartel activity perhaps stimulated by covert U.S. intelligence activity. We have been outlining the importance of Mexico for several months, there are trillions at stake.
The first pressure point applied, was to demand AMLO join the Biden and Trudeau group by condemning the populist uprising in Brazil [Accomplished]. Among other geopolitical facets, this joint condemnation helps set distance between Mexico and the potential for any BRICS alliance.
With that secured, now the Biden team led by Jake Sullivan (Neocon wing of State Dept), start to apply pressure around social issues (immigration), cultural issues (fentanyl trade), humanitarian issues (human trafficking, border crisis, drugs and cartels); then building toward economic issues (worker conditions and trade) ultimately culminating with energy policy (Green New Deal).
(White House) – […] And President López Obrador and President Biden will have the opportunity to discuss questions related to supply chains, to clean energy cooperation, and to a larger economic vision of North America that involves high labor standards, high environmental standards, and as much positively reinforcing economic activity as possible that allows the United States to be the manufacturing powerhouse that President Biden has talked about but also is a win-win for Mexico and Canada, and reduces our dependencies on other countries and other parts of the world who don’t necessarily share the same values that we share with our partners here in North America.
There will be a lot of other issues on the agenda: broader law enforcement cooperation, questions related to how we move forward a common agenda to combat the climate crisis, health, people-to-people ties, and so much else.
But these areas in particular — migration, fentanyl, and integrated supply chains and the increased strength of North America’s manufacturing and innovation powerhouse in critical sectors, including in the clean energy sector — these are the areas, I think, where you will see the greatest amount of focus.
The final point I would make: This trip is a good opportunity for President Biden to deepen his personal engagement with President López Obrador and Prime Minister Trudeau. Yesterday, he had the opportunity to ride with President López Obrador from the airport back into town, which gave them the chance to just have a one-on-one chat on kind of how they’re seeing the world right now, what’s on their minds. I think they both got a lot out of it.
And then, this evening, they will have the chance to all meet together with their spouses for a personal dinner. So that’s an important dimension to this as well.
[…] Q – And briefly, can you say whether the presidents discussed the dispute over Mexican energy policy, which has been a thorn in trade ties for some time, in either the limo ride — or does he plan to discuss it over the next couple of days? What is President Biden’s message to President López Obrador on that issue?
MR. SULLIVAN: I’m not going to read out the conversation in the limo because I think that was a personal conversation between the two of them. I’ll let each of them speak to it, to the extent they feel comfortable doing so.
What I will say is that the question of energy policy and the consultations over energy will be on the agenda, will come up between the two leaders on this trip. I want to leave it at that because those are sensitive conversations. They’re best done behind closed doors. But the President certainly comes with that as a key part of his economic agenda here.
Q Can I follow up? Can I follow on the — just the energy part? In talking to U.S. energy companies, they’re frustrated at the pace of these negotiations, consultations. The deadline — it expires, it’s been extended.
They are urging this White House to take the next step of calling a dispute panel, saying that there’s evidence that that is necessary. Is that something the U.S. is considering? And kind of what — what would need — what are the preconditions you would need to see in order to kind of call a dispute panel?
MR. SULLIVAN: So, I’m not going to negotiate in public or telegraph next steps in public. I’ll just say that we remain in close touch with all of those energy stakeholders. We remain in close touch with both Democrats and Republicans on the Hill. In fact, I’ve spoken with members just this morning on this issue, to keep them up to date on what we’re doing.
And as I said before, this will be a topic between the leaders here in Mexico, but I don’t want to get ahead of their opportunity to discuss this. I would just say that we think consultations have helped clarify both the nature of U.S. concerns, have identified some potential pathways forward, but we’re not there yet. And we’ll make determinations about next steps based how things unfold here in the coming days and weeks. (read more)
Zelensky’s Holy War – Seizing Russian Churches
Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Jan 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, I just read that Ukraine seized control of a Russian Orthodox Church that has been there for a century. You were correct. Zelensky has also made this a holy war. The Ukrainian people should rise up against this guy. He is killing them all for hatred.
SH
REPLY. I have had staff on both sides in Ukraine. I have been well aware of the hatred and animosity that I do not see will ever be resolved. This is like the battle between the Shite v Sunni in Islam or the Catholic v Protestants in Christianity. Zelensky has shut down free speech and has seized control of the main cathedral and monastery in Kyiv which has always been Russian. It has always been affiliated with the Russian Orthodox patriarchate and allowed its Ukrainian rival group to use it for Orthodox Christmas services. The cathedral is the oldest Orthodox church in Kharkiv. This was constructed in the Baroque style at the expense of the community in 1771-1777 long before Ukraine was even an idea. The old church was destroyed and dated from the middle of the 17th century.
This is no different from the French King seizing the Vatican and moving it to France at Avignon. Zelensky outright hates Russians and has even called on NATO to NUKE Moscow in a sneak attack. Zelensky said a nuclear attack on Russia is “needed so that [the Russians] know what awaits them if they use nuclear weapons” during an event with the Australian think tank the Lowy Institute. “Not the other way around, waiting for Russia’s nuclear strikes and then saying, ‘Oh, you’ve done that, then get this.’”
This is the guy we are to send any missiles to? He is consumed with hatred and is the most dangerous head of state perhaps surpassing even Stalin and Kruschev.
Stirring the Pot For War
Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Many people have written in and asked why have I been unable to convince governments to avoid war. Quite frankly, they think they can win and more importantly, they need this because the entire socialistic system is collapsing. They rely on people buying their bonds year after year with no intention of paying anything back. This is just our time to collapse the same as communism collapsed in 1989 in China and Russia. We have run our course and the clock is running out of time. This is the 34th year since 1989. Socialism will collapse. It has no other choice here in 2023.
I have received videos from Ukrainian soldiers who are threatening to go after Zelensky. I was not given permission to post them so I do not want to get anyone in trouble. They are dying in far greater numbers than the rigged press is reporting and they are freezing.
Strategically, the US is attempting to create the Asian version of NATO aligning with Japan and the Philippines to rely on their soldiers to fight China. Meanwhile, in China, there is absolutely no question that they are preparing to take Taiwan and I believe this was accelerated by the Biden Administration (1) abandoning the one-China policy maintained since Nixon and allowing Pelosi to fly to Taiwan just ahead of the elections in China which was an absolute brain dead stunt. Consequently, China is gearing up for military action to take control of Taiwan because the Biden Administration has actually called their bluff. President Xi Jinping secured a historic third term last year and has made it clear he plans to retake Taiwan. Pay attention in May.
Meanwhile, with respect to North Korea, we would have to take into account their 1.2 million-man Korean People’s Army, which is organized into nineteen corps-sized units, including nine infantry corps, four mechanized corps, one armored corps, one artillery corps, the Pyongyang Defense Command, Missile Guidance Bureau and Light Infantry Instruction Guidance Bureau. More than half of these forces, particularly the mechanized, armor, and artillery forces are located near the DMZ, making an early cross-border assault unattractive. Kim and Putin have come to an agreement and will support each other. On the 72-year anniversary of the Koren War when they prevailed against the United States, Kim condemned “aggression moves” by Washington and Seoul, vowing to take revenge at a time of rising tension on the Korean Peninsula. Here too, it appears that Kim is preparing for war against at least the South and possibly expanding into Japan – a hated enemy.
The Middle East is heating up with Iran preparing for war against Saudi Arabia. This has prompted even Israel and Saudi Arabia to consider a joint defense agreement. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia have come together to also form an alliance. We may also expect that Syria will join on the side of Russia in the Middle East.
Looking at Iran just from the 1979 confrontation taking American hostages, the turning points for the last three waves, which are always the most intense, lined up with the 2014 turn on the Global War Model. The next wave was November 3rd, 2022 and here we see widespread civil unrest. In fact, the United Nations called it a critical situation on November 22nd, 2022.
The world is dumbfounded as to why in the hell we have world leader cheering war on every continent. I put forth a solution, some did not like it, but there is no other way out of this other than Schwab’s “Great Reset” which is really all about defaulting on all the national debts, the end of socialism, and the push for a one world government to end democracy so government retains power. Under my solution, the government would relinquish power. They did not like that. Schwab’s way leaves it necessary to create World War III, reduce the population escapes the pension liabilities, and start over with a new Bretton Woods II.
In 2008, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown joined French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in calling for better regulation of global financial markets.
“We urgently need what you might call the ‘new Bretton Woods,’ so that we can restore confidence in the system while dealing with the areas that have been exposed in recent weeks.”
I posted this video 5 years ago. It has only gotten worse.
Centinel2012 