Monthly Archives: April 2017

Apr 25 2017

If US Election Were Held today – Trump Would Get More Votes Polls Show


Armstrong Economics Blog/2016 U.S. Presidential Election

Re-Posted Apr 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Trump Sworn In

The latest polls show that most people who voted for Trump are satisfied. When the same questions have been asking about Hillary, the opposite response appears. The polls are actually showing that Trump would win a greater margin today than last year. This is interesting for it is confirming the collapse in government with Big Bang that began on October 1st, 2015.

BIG BANG ECM 2015.75

Big Bang was the start of the collapse in confidence in government. This cycle should intensify starting in 2018 running head long into 2020. This is all good for the volatility in markets we see ahead. This is the same trend that produced BREXIT and just wiped out all mainstream parties in France.

Apr 24 2017

The French Elections & Socrates


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted Apr 24, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I saved you article from November 25th last year where your computer forecast the collapse of mainstream politics. Macron was not even in the picture back then. Have you recalculated now that all the parties collapsed and it is Macron v Le Pen?

Image12

ANSWER: I am very familiar with France. I was supposed to debate Michel Sapin, the Finance Minister of France on national TV. He backed out.

As you can see in that article, the only way to approach this is to look at the philosophy rather than the party since we were showing that the parties would collapse as they have done. I concluded that article writing:

“Clearly, the socialists are finished. However, we are within this 10 year window between 2013 and 2023. This clearly shifts the favor toward a new power. Le Pen can win within this window. However, expect this to be also very divisive as in the United States.”

We could extrapolate and say all other party members will vote for Macron. However, that would just be a guess. The wildcard now is we know that Le Pen will get probably 30% for that is her hardcore base. The question becomes, what portion of the other parties will now vote for Le Pen. Keep in mind that the Euro will rally as fools think this will save the day if she loses. Such an event will only postpone the inevitable for the same thinking process will remain in place.

Einstein solving

Categories: France, Politics
Apr 24 2017

An “Increasingly Worried” Chinese President Tells Trump To “Exercise Restraint” Over N.Korea


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE Apr 24, 2017 8:06 AM

France, and the European “populist wave”, may be fixed for now, but geopolitical concerns remain as was made clear last night when during a phone call late on Sunday between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, the North Korean neighbor called for all sides to “exercise restraint” as Japan conducted exercises with a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group headed for Korean waters. China, which has repeatedly called for the de-nuclearization of the Korean peninsula, is “increasingly worried” the situation could spin out of control, leading to war and a chaotic collapse of North Korea, something we cautioned over two months ago.

Xi told Trump on the phone that China resolutely opposed any actions that ran counter to U.N. Security Council resolutions, the Chinese foreign ministry said quoted by Reuters. China “hopes that all relevant sides exercise restraint, and avoid doing anything to worsen the tense situation on the peninsula”, the ministry said in a statement, paraphrasing Xi. The nuclear issue could only be resolved quickly with all relevant countries pulling in the same direction, and China was willing to work with all parties, including the United States, to ensure peace, Xi said.

A potential risk catalyst is just hours away: North Korea prepares to celebrate the 85th anniversary of the foundation of its Korean People’s Army on Tuesday. It has marked similar events in the past with nuclear tests or missile launches.

That said, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said the call between the two presidents was the latest manifestation of their close communication, which was good for both of their countries and the world.

China urges calm as Trump holds calls on North Korea

On Sunday, Trump also spoke by telephone with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who later described the conversation as a “thorough exchange of views”.

“We agreed to strongly demand that North Korea, which is repeating its provocation, show restraint,” Abe told reporters. “We will maintain close contact with the United States, keep a high level of vigilance and respond firmly,” he said. Abe also said he and Trump agreed that China should play a large role in dealing with it.

According to Reuters, a Japanese official said the phone call between Trump and Abe was not prompted by any specific change in the situation. Envoys on the North Korean nuclear issue from the United States, South Korea and Japan are due to meet in Tokyo on Tuesday. The U.S. government has not specified where the carrier strike group is, but U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said on Saturday it would arrive “within days”.

Meanwhile, South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun gave no details about the South’s plan to join the approaching U.S. carrier group for exercises, apart from saying Seoul was holding discussions with the U.S. Navy. “I can say the South Korean and U.S. militaries are fully ready for North Korea’s nuclear test,” Moon said. South Korean and U.S. officials have feared for some time that North Korea could soon carry out its sixth nuclear test.

As reported on Friday, satellite imagery analyzed by 38 North, a Washington-based North Korea monitoring project, found some activity at North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site last week. However, the group said it was unclear whether the site was in a “tactical pause” before another test or was carrying out normal operations.

Adding to the already tense situation, North Korea detained a U.S. citizen on Saturday as he attempted to leave the country. The arrest will be a topic of discussion when Trump hold a top level briefing with Senators on April 26.

As a reminder, Trump sent a carrier group for exercises in waters off the Korean peninsula as a warning, amid growing fears North Korea could conduct another nuclear test in defiance of United Nations sanctions.

Angered by the approach of the USS Carl Vinson carrier group, a defiant North Korea said on Monday the deployment was “an extremely dangerous act by those who plan a nuclear war to invade”. “The United States should not run amok and should consider carefully any catastrophic consequence from its foolish military provocative act,” Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party, said in a commentary on Monday.

“What’s only laid for aggressors is dead bodies,” the newspaper said.

Two Japanese destroyers have joined the carrier group for exercises in the western Pacific, and South Korea said on Monday it was also in talks about holding joint naval exercises.

Apr 24 2017

One Trader Is Surprised At Market Euphoria From A “Result That Was Everybody’s Base Case”


Tyler Durden's picture
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE by Tyler Durden

The risk of a Eurozone breakdown now appears to be taken off the table after a French election that has led to a dramatic repricing in European risk assets. And yet the outcome – which was largely expected – has prompted Bloomberg’s Richard Bresow to muse just how much was truly priced in:

“I guess it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. It truly unnerved the commentariat that the unpredictable seemed to be unpredictable. The second vote is apparently now knowable with certainty. Europe is saved. Populism is about to be vanquished. A strong euro is a good thing for the economy. And ECB President Draghi can begin normalizing rates. Presto chango. Not bad for a result that was everybody’s base case.”

And yet, as Breslow adds, the wholesale reaction leaves something to be desired:

Gold is interesting. I’d have expected it to leak more than it did. It may require Treasury yields to push higher. As we speak, they left a nasty gap and sit right where the bulls were hoping they wouldn’t have to see anytime soon. This may be the most interesting asset of all.

Equities are happy. Think of all that hard-earned wealth creation. And they get to ignore the Shanghai meltdown and potential U.S. government shutdown. Make tax cuts, not war. Another one-half percent higher in the E-mini and dreams of new all-time highs will be dancing in traders’ heads.

For now, however, it is “springtime in Paris”, and all other concerns can be put on the backburner, if only for the next few days.

The full note from Richard Breslow, a former FX trader and fund manager who writes for Bloomberg

* * *

It’s Morning Time for Springtime in Paris

And they get to ignore the Shanghai meltdown and potential U.S. government shutdown. Make tax cuts, not war. Another one-half percent higher in the E-mini and dreams of new all-time highs will be dancing in traders’ heads.

It’s Morning Time for Springtime in Paris

The pollsters won the first round of the French presidential election. In other news, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have advanced to the next phase. There were times last night when there seemed to be as much relief from the forecasts being accurate as the diminished likelihood that one of the extremists will win the ultimate prize. Despite the far-right representative coming second and ahead of either of the main party candidates.

I guess it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. It truly unnerved the commentariat that the unpredictable seemed to be unpredictable. The second vote is apparently now knowable with certainty. Europe is saved. Populism is about to be vanquished. A strong euro is a good thing for the economy. And ECB President Draghi can begin normalizing rates. Presto chango. Not bad for a result that was everybody’s base case.

Some of the other big winners include SNB President Thomas Jordan as EUR/CHF made a new high on the year. This is a good one to keep an eye on as 1.0850, where it peaked, is where heavy technical resistance begins. If the “everything is right with the world” meme is to hold, the cross needs to show it. Game theory would suggest it wouldn’t be a bad time for him to give it a little nudge.

The BOJ has to be feeling a bit better. And will feel a whole lot more sanguine if EUR/JPY can stick above the really pivotal 120 level. It was just last Monday that 115 was under threat. The U.S. can’t really fault the Japanese for this yen weakness, as they will be referred to the French ministry.

Gold is interesting. I’d have expected it to leak more than it did. It may require Treasury yields to push higher. As we speak, they left a nasty gap and sit right where the bulls were hoping they wouldn’t have to see anytime soon. This may be the most interesting asset of all.

Equities are happy. Think of all that hard-earned wealth creation. And they get to ignore the Shanghai meltdown and potential U.S. government shutdown. Make tax cuts, not war. Another one-half percent higher in the E-mini and dreams of new all-time highs will be dancing in traders’ heads.

Springtime in Paris can indeed be very enchanting.

Apr 24 2017

T-Rex: No Further Questions Needed on Russia Sanctions Being Lifted,… EVER !


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 23, 2017 by

Funny call readout from Secretary Tillerson’s office today.  The last paragraph is extraordinarily blunt (emphasis mine):

[Dept. of State] Secretary Tillerson phoned Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko today to discuss his recent trip to Moscow and his message to the Russian leadership that, although the United States is interested in improving relations with Russia, Russia’s actions in eastern Ukraine remain an obstacle. The Secretary emphasized the importance of Ukraine’s continued progress on reform and combating corruption.

The Secretary accepted condolences from President Poroshenko on the death today of a U.S. member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission (SMM). The leaders agreed that the OSCE SMM has played a vital role in its role of monitoring the Minsk agreements designed to bring peace to eastern Ukraine, and that this tragic incident makes clear the need for all sides- and particularly the Russian-led separatist forces-to implement their commitments under the Minsk Agreements immediately.

Secretary Tillerson reiterated the United States’ firm commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and confirmed that sanctions will remain in place until Russia returns control of the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine and fully implements its commitments in the Minsk agreements. (link)

Oh well, I guess that’s that then.

No need to ever wonder about those pesky sanctions ever being lifted.

Ever.

Horse = Dead.

Moving on…

 

Apr 24 2017

A $20 Gold Coin that Saved a Life


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted Apr 24, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

confederate submaribe George Dixon gold coin

A story that a sweetheart gave a Confederate soldier George Dixon a $20 gold coin dated 1860 as a good luck charm has been validated. The story was that George kept the coin with him always, in his pocket, as good luck. During the Battle of Shiloh, George was shot point blank. The bullet struck in his pocket hitting the center of the gold coin. The impact was said to have left the gold piece bent, with the bullet embedded in it which saved his life.

Confederate submarine H.L. Hunley

George’s luck, however, did not last forever. Nearly 150 years ago, the Confederate submarine H.L. Hunley, the first ever in history, failed to return to port after its successful maiden mission. The sunken submarine was discovered in 2015 off the waters of South Carolina where it sunk in 1864.

Confederate submarine

The propulsion was simply men turning a crank. A pole on the front was designed to ram explosives into enemy ships. Therefore, the sub had to actually make contact. The poll placed a powder charge into the Union warship Housatonic and sunk her, but the Hunley went down with its eight man crew and never returned on February 17th 1864.

The archaeologists also found inside the submarine one bent gold coin that was carried by the sub’s captain, Lieutenant George Dixon, for good luck. The legend was proven true. The $20 gold coin saved his life one time.

Apr 23 2017

French Election – No Surprise – Or Is There?


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted Apr 23, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

2017 Election

Our computer had correctly projected that Le Pen would defeat the mainstream party Socialists. Indeed, Hollende did not even run he was so unpopular. The result of this election is really now a wildcard. For the most important aspect worth underlining in BOLD is the striking fact that this is the first time in modern French history all the mainstream centre-right or centre-left parties of government that have ruled France since the World War II will not make it to stand for the second round of a presidential election.

Macron & WifeWe can now safely count that Le Pen’s base is very solid. Those who support her will be out in sheer force to take their country back – FRANCE FIRST as they are saying. The wildcard is now Macron, who just started his party last August. All the mainstream media and mainstream politicians will be throwing their support now to Macron. Mainstream press is already estimating Macron took 24% of the vote, with Le Pen close behind with 21.8%. The question is clear that his base is nowhere near as firm as that of Le Pen.

Macron is the mirror image of Trump. Just a bureaucrat, but his wife is 24 years older than him compared to Trump who is 25 years older than his wife. Macron lacks any real experience to speak of outside of government and the joke is that since men mature slower than women, he is just a boy toy who is not ready for prime time who needs his hand held when crossing streets. The two studies bantered about are curious indeed. If a man marries and older woman, she dies sooner whereas a man who marries a younger woman increases his life expectancy by at least 11%. Guess the younger girl keeps him in better shape whereas the boy toy wears out his spouse so they say. Well we have had just about every other scenario arise in politics. Guess its time to change up.

Macron’s platform is typical for a bureaucrat – something for everybody. He claims he wants to cut costs and bureaucracy to boost hiring, while promoting investment in what he called the economy of the future. These are nice vague objectives for which has has come under fire. He then came up with six main priorities: education, work, economic modernization, security, democratic renewal and international engagement.

Mean while, the ECB has firmed up plans to help bailout French banks in the middle of pending uncertainty. May is looking more and more interesting. A Le Pen victory will actually provide a soft-landing for the EU and force it to begin to look at what it is doing so terribly wrong. A Macron victory will doom the EU to a complete collapse and a hard landing in 2018. Why? Brussels will wipe their brow and cheer the end of “populism” and that means they will continue down the same road without any reform. BREXIT should have sparked some internal review. Instead, they just blame the Brits and move on.

Apr 23 2017

50,000 Police Monitor As 47 Million French Voters Decide The Fate Of Europe


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE Apr 23, 2017 8:20 AM

After months of anticipatory build up, voting is underway in France on Sunday in the first round of a bitterly fought presidential election that is seen as crucial to the future of the Eurozone, and a closely-watched test of voters’ anger with the political establishment.

Local polling stations opened at 0600 GMT and will close at 1800 GMT, with about 47 million voters expected to cast their ballots in around 67,000 polling stations amid a high terror alert.

Voters, on edge after Thursday’s latest ISIS terrorist attack, will be monitored by more than 50,000 police officers backed by elite units of the French security services patrolled the streets less than three days after a suspected Islamist gunman shot dead a policeman and wounded two others on the central Champs Elysees avenue.

Related Video
Candidates vote in French election

By noon (6.00 a.m. ET), turnout amid perfect weather conditions across much of France was 28.54%, according to official figures, roughly the same as in the 2012 first round, in which almost 80% eventually took part.

 

Some polls had been predicting a much lower turnout, closer to the 70% that took the then National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen into the second round in 2002. Pollsters are unclear about what a low or high turnout could mean in 2017.

 

While we have previewed today‘s event extensively (most recently here), Reuters summarized it best: today “voters will decide whether to back a pro-EU centrist newcomer [and a former Rothschild banker], a scandal-ridden veteran conservative who wants to slash public spending, a far-left eurosceptic admirer of Fidel Castro or to appoint France’s first woman president who would shut borders and ditch the euro.”

The outcome of today’s election will show whether the populist tide that led to Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory is still rising, or starting to ebb.

The biggest wildcard ahead of today’s outcome is the high level of indecision among the population, with nearly a third of potential voters undecided until the last minute. Hanan Fanidi, a 33-year-old financial project manager, was still unsure as she arrived at a polling station in Paris’ 18th arrondissement.

“I don’t believe in anyone, actually. I haven’t arrived at a candidate in particular who could advance things. I’m very, very pessimistic,” she said.

Looking at the outcome of today’s vote, while the possibility of a Le Pen-Melenchon run-off is not the most likely scenario, it is the one which alarms bankers and investors.

Putting the performance of Marin Le Pen – as well as that of her father Jean-Marie – in election context:

  • Jean-Marie Le Pen, 2002: 16.8%
  • Jean-Marie Le Pen, 2007: 10.4%
  • Marine Le Pen, 2012: 17.9%

Le Pen has told supporters “the EU will die”, while Macron, 39, a former Rothschild banker wants to further beef up the euro zone. Le Pen further wants to return to the Franc, re-denominate the country’s debt stock, tax imports and reject international treaties. Melenchon also wants to radically overhaul the European Union and hold a referendum on whether to leave the bloc.

Le Pen or Melenchon would struggle, in parliamentary elections in June, to win a majority to carry out such radical moves, but their growing popularity also worries France’s EU partners.

Germany’s position on today’s election is hardly a surprise: “It is no secret that we will not be cheering madly should Sunday’s result produce a second round between Le Pen and Melenchon,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said. If either Macron or Fillon were victorious, each would face challenges. For Macron, a big question would be whether he could win a majority in parliament in June. Fillon, though likely to struggle less to get a majority, would likely be dogged by an embezzlement scandal, in which he denies wrongdoing.

Meanwhile, polls opened on Saturday in France’s overseas territories, allowing citizens to cast their ballots a day ahead of voters on the French mainland. According to unconfirmed twitter reports, based on preliminary offshore results, support for Melenchon is far greater than for any of his competitors.

 

 

Apr 23 2017

There Will Be Blood: Left Prepares For War After Berkeley Beat Down With “Combat Training, Better Equipment, Guns…”


 

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE Apr 22, 2017 9:40 PM

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Last week Trump supporters and leftist social justice warriors met on the political field of battle in Berkeley, California. Words were exchanged, as were punches. And while an alt-right leader was punched in the face, by all accounts even the social justice warriors admit that they got a major beat-down.

This prompted a reddit discussion among the left’s tolerant resistance movement, with many asking how they can more effectively go to war against anyone who disagrees with their social, political, and economic views.

The anti-Trump protesters at the rally were ill-prepared for what they came to Berkeley to confront and now they are trying to figure out ways to ensure it doesn’t happen again.

Trade with one of the best, OptionsHouse is built for active traders. We have designed our service and product offering to deliver the greatest value including a dedicated service team, full suite of research and trading tools and many investment choices. Get the OptionsHouse advantage and open an account today.

In short, as predicted, they are turning to militancy and mob action by mobilizing individuals and groups to attend combat training seminars, acquiring better equipment like baseball bats and helmets, and of course, if things really go bad… guns.

Yes, we seemed to have lost today. The alt-right held their ground. If we wanna take action against them, we need to be better organized and better trained. It doesn’t help that it’s only the far left opposing them, any trump supporter can be radicalized far easier than any liberal.
I hope we learn from today
A shocking number of our comrades went in there with absolute no combat training. We need to set up seminars or something of the sort.
We also need better equipment, I know the bandanna and hoodie look is our trade mark, but I saw the right wearing motorcycle helmets, and baseball helmets. A dude wearing a helmet is going to keep going if he get punched, our guys are going down.

antifa-protests1

And though they are, always have been and always will be “tolerant” and “peaceful protesters,” many are now discussing arming themselves so they can go head to head with the “fascist” and “racist” alt-right.

I honestly think we need a campaign to get more antifa armed. It seems that seems to be the biggest problem with our resistance. They’re mostly armed, why aren’t we?

Not getting disarmed is a big part of the problem, yes, but we need more than flags and bats. We need to take notes from the John Brown Gun Club and get firearms and training. I know getting firearms in states and cities we have a presence in is usually a hassle, but even handguns would help. It would certainly put a psychological element in while holding fash back. Who do you think a fascist is more afraid of? People with only flags and bats, or people with flags, bats, and guns?

antifa-protests2

Video report:

The “comrades” organizing against “fascists,” which basically means anyone and everyone who voted for President Trump, are quickly coming to the conclusion that to win this conflict they will need to be armed with more than just flags, banners, chants and pepper spray.

And all this time we thought hugging it out would be the solution…

Apparently, there is a realization among the left that whatever it is they are trying to accomplish will not come with peaceful assembly, but rather, with blood in the streets.

As we and others like Brandon Smith of Alt-Market previously warned, the Left WILL Resort To Large Scale Violence… To Stop Fascism:

I believed at that time that the social-justice cult would lose mainstream influence but that the existing minority would resort to even more insidious tactics and greater violence to get what they want; and, the so-called “moderate left” would cheer them on.  As it turns out, I have been proven right so far.

Not that extreme Leftists have been averse to violence over the past year, but I think it is safe to say that the volume on the cultural Marxist machine has been turned up a notch.

The social justice mantra is changing. At first, it was predominately about forming mobs to “shame” target political opponents into silence. Now, it is about forming mobs to do what they call “punching Nazis.” Leftists are now often seen regurgitating the claim — “This is only the beginning…”

Indeed, this is only the beginning.

Ladies and Gentlemen, if you have a Trump bumper sticker, an American flag or a Gadsden decal on your vehicle, prepare to defend yourselves.

There will be war.

Apr 23 2017

President Donald Trump – Captain of Global Trade and Finance…


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 22, 2017 by

Sometimes geo-politics can be funny and deserve a little snark in discussion. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank, are holding a conference in DC. this weekend.  Deplorable Secretary Mnuchin represents U.S. and Trump interests.

Amid the earlier G20 Summit the Trump effect ended up with changed language from the finance leadership.  Titan Trump’s election changed the way the IMF and World Bank globalists talk about international trade.   Bi-lateral and nationalism are no longer dirty words.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – International Monetary Fund members on Saturday dropped a pledge to fight protectionism amid a split over trade policy and turned their attention to another looming threat to global economic integration: the first round of France’s presidential election. (more)

However, funnier still is the resurfacing of a familiar face.  You might well remember former Mexican Finance Minister Augustin Carstens resigned as Mexico’s central bank chief just after the election of Donald Trump.   Well, apparently, the job of saving face for the changed approach of the IMF/World Bank is now squarely on Carsten’s shoulders.

A communique from the IMF’s steering committee on Saturday dropped an anti-protectionism pledge, adopting language from the Group of 20 nations that the Trump administration sought last month in Germany as it develops a strategy to slash U.S. trade deficits.

Earlier in the week, the IMF had warned that protectionist policies that restrict trade could choke off improving global growth.

Instead, the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) statement pledged that members would “work together” to reduce global trade and current account imbalances “through appropriate policies.”

Mexican central bank chief Agustin Carstens, the IMFC chairman, said most countries have some trade restrictions and that protectionism was an “ambiguous” term.

“Instead of dwelling on what that concept means, we managed to put it in a more positive, more constructive framework,” Carstens told a news conference.

Some officials chose to focus on the brightening global economy instead of the risks posed by the French election, new U.S. trade barriers and Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, said James Boughton, a former IMF official.

“There’s an awful lot of forced optimism about what these people are saying,” said Boughton, who is now with the Centre for International Governance Innovation, a Canadian think-tank. “Until the train goes off the tracks, everything looks fine.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called for the IMF to step up its surveillance of members’ foreign exchange rates.

President Donald Trump “believes in reciprocal trade deals and reciprocal free trade,” Mnuchin told Lagarde in an on-stage interview. “What that means is that if our markets are open there should be a reciprocal nature to other markets which should be open as well.”  (read more)

mexican-money-1gru-lives