Category BIDENomics

Jul 29 2023

Trying to Make Heads or Tails about Recessions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Jul 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Looking at Socrates,  do you think that these people who were constantly calling for a recession because there were two quarters that declined with covid really need revision? Socrates was correct, no recession. But it is showing major turning points in 2024 which seem to align with your old ECM forecast calling for commodity inflation into 2024. How would you define a recession?

EJ

ANSWER: In trading, reactions are 1 to 3 time units. I believe that the same definition should be used for classifying a recession. They define a recession as two consecutive quarterly declines. If you look at the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009, you will see three consecutive quarterly declines and a rebound. If we look at the COVID recession caused by locking everyone down, that was just two consecutive quarterly declines.

I personally would argue that a true economic recession MUST exceed three consecutive declines. Here is the chart of GNP from 1929 to 1940. There were three years of negative growth. I simply think that this definition of two quarters is wrong. You can have a slight decline of 1 to even 5%, but that does not suggest a recession. In the case of 1929, that was a decline of 9.5% in 1930 – the first year. Now look at the COVID Crash, which was also a decline of 9.53%. But the difference is that the COVID decline was forced and not natural. That is why it rebounded so quickly. Now the so-called “Great Recession” of 2008-2009 only saw a decline in GDP of 3.47%.

The “Great Recession” was not really so great. It wiped out real estate and bankers but did not fundamentally alter the economy. So who is right and who is wrong will always depend upon the definition. Yes, the AI Timing Arrays point to a recession starting Next Year by their definition. This will most likely be caused by the decline in confidence that will lead to UNCERTAINTY, and as such, the consumer will contract. Up to now, the continued expansion of the economy into 2024 has also been fueled by the shift in assets from public to private.

As originally forecast, we should have seen a commodity boom into 2023,

and we should expect a highly authoritarian attempt by 2028.

Jun 30 2023

US Households Paid an Additional $10K Under Biden Regulations


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

University of Chicago professor Casey Mulligan recently compared regulatory records from the Obama Administration to now. Mulligan found that Biden has imposed the most costly regulations in recent history at a rate of $617 billion annually. Her research concluded that the average American household now pays $9,600 more under Biden.

This uptick in spending found in this study is solely due to regulation. If we were to factor in inflation, which Biden poured gasoline on (no pun intended), the figure would be even higher. The Build Back Better agenda comes at a cost to the people. Auto fuel and emissions standards compose one-third of total regulatory costs alone.

Trump attempted deregulation and saved the average American household $11,000 during his four-year term. Trump’s main regulatory initiative that was a costly mistake was Operation Warp Speed, which cost over $300 billion. “President Trump showed that regulatory costs can be subtracted rather than perpetually added,” the report states. “Four years of President Trump reduced regulatory costs by about $11,000 per household. Eight years would have saved a total of more than $21,000, which is a gap of $61,000 to $80,000 from the Biden trajectory.”

Biden had the audacity to tote “Bidenomics” at a recent speaking engagement. Clearly, his economic policies have put America in a dire situation. Biden plans to continue implementing costly regulations. Mulligan’s estimates also do not account for the coming war his administration is thrusting us into without just cause. The nation simply cannot afford to keep him in power. Too bad we don’t have the ability to determine our own elections.

Jun 28 2023

Biden: I Sold A Lot of State Secrets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jun 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  Okay.  We — I was just thanking the — anyway, I started off without you, and I sold a lot of state secrets and a lot of very important things that we shared.  (Laughter.)

The only time Joe Biden speaks the truth is when he goes off script. He has said it before that his people would be mad at him for speaking without direction. Biden is currently (not) under investigation for selling state secrets to Ukraine and China. We know without a shadow of a doubt that his son Hunter obtained lucrative business contracts overseas while traveling on Air Force Two. We’ve heard, “10% for the big guy,” with no investigation. Now, the POTUS is openly mocking us for being above the law.

“We’re — we’re going to see more technol- — technological change — you’ve heard me say this a number of times — in the next 10 years than we saw in the last 50 years — and maybe in the next few years — the last 50 years,” Biden eloquently said. “Sometimes it’s a little difficult to say too much in front of all the press present here,” Indian PM Modi responded, likely glad he has the BRICS pact to rely on after seeing Biden’s mental decline on full display. You can see Modi’s absolute shock when Biden ADMITS to selling state secrets. That was not a joke but a slip of the tongue.

Biden embarrassed the entire nation during his meeting with Modi in India. He saluted the Indian national anthem before slowly lowering his hand after his handlers told him that “The Star-Spangled Banner” was not playing. He refused to let go of Modi’s hand after walking down the podium, and his wife Jill was clearly flustered, not knowing where to stand. America looks weak because our leader is weak.

Biden has made a mockery of America and the due process of law. He implemented laws as a senator to punish men for crimes his own son committed without penalty. He has had his political opponents arrested in true dictator fashion. The intelligence agencies work for him, or at least for the deep state propping him up. And now, days after the WhatsApp message revealed Hunter used his father’s name for power, he “jokes” about selling state secrets. To quote Joe Biden himself, “This man cannot remain in power.”

Jun 17 2023

Biden – Admits He is a Puppet


Aemstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: You are just anti-Democrat and always against Biden.

WU

REPLY: Sorry, you are so biased you cannot look objectively at anything. When Biden utters the phrase “I’m deviating from the script, and I going to get in trouble” don’t you understand that someone is scolding him if he speaks his own mind? I’m sorry. That is irrefutable evidence that he is nothing more than a puppet.

You obviously do not care who is really calling the shots. So far, these people behind the curtain using Biden have destroyed the world economy by corrupting SWIFT, the sanctions on Russia have only divided the world economy ending globalism. Then they have the audacity to threaten China that if they supply arms to Russia there will be sanctions against them. All of this is when the US is supplying arms to Ukraine. They have transformed the USA from the policeman of the world to the arrogant world dictator.

There was the One China policy and the Biden administration has abandoned decades of peace ensuring now that China has no choice but to invade Taiwan or appear subservient to the United States. Then these people have NATO expanding opening in Japan to spread their version of world peace by bombing the hell out anyone they dislike exercising their dictatorial power. NATO is no the greatest threat to Europe. The only country that sees this is France. NATO will destroy all of Europe.

So feel free to vote for Biden if you are over 70 and have no family members then you will not be drafted which may go up to 65 years old this time and include girls. Otherwise, a vote for Biden will be a vote to send your children or grandchildren to die on some foreign battlefield all for the glory of the NEOCONS. The United States is in the midst of a coup. The NEOCONS are in full control – their dream has come true. A vote for Biden is a vote for the NEOCONS. Vote for RFK, Jr. but not Biden if you care about your country. Biden is the patsy. He is not making these decisions.

You have no idea how this works. For nearly 50 years, FBI director J. Edgar Hoover (1895-1972) amassed secret files on America’s most prominent figures. He then used those files to blackmail and smear presidents and politicians. You did what he ORDERED or he would use the dirt on you to end your career or imprison you as they are doing to Trump right now. The NEOCONS have done that to Biden and his family. He does what he is told – OR ELSE!

Jun 16 2023

Tucker Carlson Outlines the New American Dictatorship


Posted originally on the CTH on June 16, 2023 | Sundance 

Comrades, dissident voice Tucker Carlson continues broadcasting his rebellious monologues on Twitter.  For his latest episode 4, Carlson notes the new American dictatorship. {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:

https://rumble.com/embed/v2rvcz8/?pub=as0d9

Dear Leader does not appreciate the unauthorized broadcasts from dissident citizens.

Jun 12 2023

Biden Vetos Plan to Scrap Student Debt Redistribution


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Canceling student loan debt was a lofty promise Biden made during his presidential bid. Three years later, he has made no progress. This was one of those single-issue items that caused many to vote for Biden, and he can’t risk reducing his dwindling support. “I’m not going to back down on my efforts to help tens of millions of working- and middle-class families,” Biden said. “That’s why I’m going to veto this bill.”

Per usual, Dem policies that claim to help the middle class only cause more financial pain. What about the working-class families who chose not to attend college due to costs? What about the families who worked hard to pay off their loans? Universities can continue charging massive fees with no end in sight and his administration has done nothing to curtail the costs of college. So there is no plan to fix the real issue that has caused so many Americans to be saddled with student debt that is nondischargeable in bankruptcy due to the repeal of Glass-Steagall by the Clintons. As a reminder, the debt will not vanish in thin air. Taxpayers will be responsible for this burden.

Instead of “relief,” we should call it what it really is intended to be – payment redistribution. The Senate had agreed to undo the damage in a 52-46 vote before Biden shot it down. Even some Democrats disagree with Biden’s plan to pass on the debt to taxpayers. Senator Joe Manchin said the “reckless” plan “forces hard-working taxpayers who already paid off their loans or did not go to college to shoulder the cost.” Democratic Senator Jon Tester and Independent Senator Krysten Sinema agree.

Extremists like Elizabeth Warren said that it’s “shameful” that Republicans want to “claw back relief from public servants.” They are undermining our intelligence. The hated rich use tax loopholes to avoid payments. The burden will fall on the middle and working class, which is entirely unconstitutional. “ The executive branch cannot spend money that has not been appropriated by Congress,” 31 USC 1301 et seq (Antideficiency Act (P.L. 97-258)) and Article I, Section 7, Clause 7 of the U.S. Constitution.

Jun 4 2023

Why the United States Will Fall


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jun 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

This is why the United States is dead. It can no longer stand united and, like Ukraine, we too will simply have to split. There should be a property swap where Democrats leave the Red States and go to the Blue States and vice versa. This is how empires always die. They collapse from an internal division that eats away at them from within like cancer. Hayley Williams has only shown how she is brainwashed into thinking that abortion is a woman’s right when it was a Gates-Rockafeller ploy to further eugenics and reduce the population of minorities.

Justice Ginsberg was a woman’s activist. She explained that Roe v Wade was not about women’s rights. It was about eugenics. So they get women to agree to war and whatever because all they can focus on is abortion which was a lie, to begin with.

You cannot allow one side to force their beliefs upon the other.  Civilization can ONLY function when everyone benefits. As Lincoln said, united we stand, divided we fall.

May 19 2023

You Voted for a Sanctuary City


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted May 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong


NYC Mayor Eric Adams is at a breaking point over the migrant crisis. He was in favor of the open border until buses filled with migrants, mostly military-aged men, began swarming his city. Adams was a fierce proponent of “sanctuary cities” and said all were welcome. Adams is out of options, and it has only been one week since Title 42 was revoked. He repeatedly stated that his buddies in Washington have failed to take his calls. What will NYC do with all its new residents?

Half of all hotels in the city have been cleared out to make room for illegal migrants. They are provided with shelter, food, a phone, and some funds despite breaking US law by illegally entering our country. “New York City is the hotel capital. We’re the hotel capital — tourism, visitors, sporting events, graduations,” Adams continued. “It’s a major economic engine for us. Almost 50% of those hotel rooms are being taken up by migrant asylum seekers.” The summer tourist season is merely the tip of the iceberg.

School gymnasiums around NYC have also been emptied to make room for undocumented migrants and parents are in an uproar. Parents are not even permitted to enter a school in the US unless they show ID and check in with the front desk. Everyone who works with children must undergo a background check. Here, we have undocumented men from across the world entering our schools. Adams claims that the migrants will not be there at the same time as the children, but there is not enough enforcement to keep the kids safe. Forget weekend or after-school activities.

NYC already has a problem with homelessness. Homeless veterans are being displaced from their shelters to make room for migrants. So the men who fought for our country are being removed from their shelters to accommodate people breaking the law.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul reached out to President Joe Biden to ask for federal assistance, as if money will solve this crisis. Biden and Harris have remained quiet on the subject. The White House is lying and claiming that border crossings are down. Every state is experiencing an influx of illegal, undocumented military-aged men from around the world. This may be a final straw for many middle-of-the-road Democrats. The US has been invaded from the southern border and no one knows what to do to address the problem.

May 19 2023

April Home Prices Reflect Largest Year-Over-Year Drop in Decade, April Prices Drop 1.7%, Decline 23.2% from Prior Year


Posted originally on the CTH on May 18, 2023 | Sundance 

Homeowner equity is being erased. As higher interest rates continue to put pressure on borrowers, the ability of the average person to afford a mortgage diminishes.  Higher mortgage rates lead to downward pressure on residential home values as fewer borrowers can afford higher payments.  Simultaneously, commercial real estate is dropping in value as vacancies continue increasing.

Put both of these issues together and already tenuous banks holding mortgage bonds as assets can become more unstable.

This dynamic creates the continual tremors in the background of an economy already suffering from high inflation and low consumer purchasing of durable goods.

A perfect storm starts to realize.

(Wall Street Journal) – Sales of previously owned homes fell in April from the prior month and prices declined from a year earlier by the most in more than 11 years.

U.S. existing home sales, which make up most of the housing market, fell 3.4% in April from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. April sales fell 23.2% from a year earlier.

The national median existing-home price fell 1.7% in April from a year earlier to $388,800, the biggest year-over-year price decline since January 2012, NAR said. Median prices, which aren’t seasonally adjusted, were down 6% from a record $413,800 in June. Home prices have fallen the most in the western half of the U.S., while prices continue to rise from a year earlier in many eastern markets. (read more) 

Before looking at today’s graph showing median existing home values, remember me saying this in 2021?:

“I said in June, at a macro level home prices had reached their peak (last two weeks of May, first two weeks of June was apex).  Obviously, there are some geographic home value increases still happening as COVID related regional issues and work opportunities are shifting populations.  There is also a lag and ripple effect that takes time to work through the economy.  The macro-apex will not be visible until next year.”

When I said that in 2021, people said I was wrong.   Well, with hindsight now visible within the data as it is reflected, look at the result:

May and June 2021 was the peak of year-over-year percent of change in median home value increases.

So, what was going on?

As CTH outlined in 2022:  If you look closely at the timing (keep in mind the data reporting lag) what you will notice is that financial institutions began a big surge in purchasing hard assets, specifically real estate, as soon as Joe Biden took office (Jan ’21), and the economic policy became evident.   Intangible financial instruments became an immediate risk as the professional financial control groups recognized energy policy would drive inflation (supply side) and devalued money would fuel it (demand side).

As an offset to predictable inflationary policy (the insiders’ game), institutional money (Blackrock, Vanguard, etc) was moved into hard assets with tangible value.

This shift in asset allocation, institutional sales, helped fuel a false surge in home prices and their valuations.  CTH was writing about this in 2021, and sounding alarms as it took place.  25% of all real estate purchases were being made by institutional investors.

We The People got screwed. 

The dynamic was predictable.  The Biden administration economic policy, energy policy and monetary policy, was going to cause massive inflation.  CTH was shouting about it in early 2021 and warning everyone to prepare for waves of price increases that would naturally surface first on high-turn consumable goods, and then embed into longer-term durable goods.

Despite claims to the contrary, this 2021 inflationary explosion had nothing to do with the pandemic or supply chain shortages.  It was entirely self-created by western governmental policy – the collective ‘Build Back Better’ agenda.  You can see now from the background moves within the financial sectors, they too knew the reality and their money shifts reflected that despite their ‘transitory’ pretending they were mitigating their own exposure.

We the People were yet again going to be victims of specifically intended monetary, regulatory, energy and economic policy.

The investment class rulers of the WEF assembly shifted assets to avoid the pain that we would feel.   We “would own nothing and be happy,” and their shifts would position them to own everything and be in control.

Overall govt spending and regulatory controls drove inflation for these past two years.  The ‘demand side’ was blamed, despite the lack of demand. I will be proven right when history is concluded with this.  Interest rates were raised by central banks in an effort to support the policies that are driving ‘supply side’ inflation – not demand side.

Energy policy was/is crushing the consumer by driving up the cost of all goods and services.  To support the overall goal of changing global energy resource and development (a false and controlled global operation), central banks raised interest rates.  Various western economies, including our own, have been pushed deeper into a state of contraction by central banks crushing consumer demand, and eliminating investment via increased borrowing costs.

In short, the goal was/is to lower energy consumption by shrinking the economic activity.  This, according to the BBB plan, was needed at the same time as energy development was reduced.  These economic outcomes are not organic, they are all being controlled by collective western government agreement.

Within this control dynamic, there was always going to be a point where the reaction of the people to their economic reality means the financial control elements need to shift direction.  They will always maximize profit and minimized risk, while knowing what the larger objective remains.

Just like every other durable good, housing demand contracts as prices and costs become unaffordable.  The loss of equity within your home is damaging to your own value or ability to borrow against it.

From the perspective of an institutional asset, that same equity drop is an investment loss.  However, the investment loss is not materialized until the sale of the lower valued asset is completed.  Retaining declining real estate on investment books creates an artificially high appearance of the investment result; unless and until the real estate is sold at a diminished value.

As mortgage rates rise, just as a consumer would pull back from the housing market, so too will institutional investment groups now control the slow dumping of the asset to remove the equity they pumped into it.  Much of the investment housing will be retained as rental housing, with the monthly rents being part of the returns on the investments.    However, as this dynamic unfolds, further investment purchases of houses stop, because the asset overall is declining in value.  This halt of investment activity also worsens a steeper drop in home values.