Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Aug 6 2025

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data has ALWAYS Been Problematic


Posted originally on Aug 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Erika McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner, has been fired by President Donald Trump due to the weak jobs report. Trump accused the Biden-appointee of manipulating jobs data “for political purposes” and claimed the numbers were “rigged.”

McEntarfer was appointed as the Commissioner of Labor Statistics in January 2024, but the numbers were indeed rigged long ago. There should have been a serious shake-up at the BLS when the agency admitted it fabricated one-third of the newly created jobs in 2023.

At the time, the BLS claimed that conditions had changed too rapidly for them to calculate the number of jobs accurately. “By the time you include all the monthly revisions and the annual benchmark revision, about one-quarter of all the jobs we thought were added last year have been revised away,” E.J. Antoni, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget, told the DCNF. “That pattern of consistent downward revisions has happened in two prior recessions. It is a result of market conditions changing too rapidly for the BLS to adjust its methodology, which in turn causes consistent errors in measuring nonfarm payrolls.”

The BLS has continually tailored its method for calculating employment. One of the key surveys used is the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is a monthly survey of households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the BLS. The unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed individuals divided by the labor force, multiplied by 100. BLS creates occupational employment projections in a product called the National Employment Matrix, which describes the employment of detailed occupations within detailed wage and salary categories, including those who are self-employed or employed by a private household. The BLS also develops participation rate projections using data from the CPS conducted by the Census Bureau. So there is inaccurate data coming from multiple places.

In 2023, the agency made changes to its calculations, including the implementation of a new weight smoothing procedure for state and metropolitan area employment data. They have recalculated this figure for Q1 of 2024 and checked back to see if the numbers were where they wanted them to be.

accounting numbers

The agency also claims its statistical calculations are subject to a widening difference between preliminary and final releases. They say that the 10 to 16-day range between data collection prevents businesses from accurately reporting, and many employers who pay monthly instead of biweekly miss the deadline entirely. The BLS stated that its average rate of collection begins at 68.3%, advances to 89% for the second publication, and rises to 92.8% by the third revision.

The BLS publishes the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) census as well on a quarterly basis. The sample size is 12 million or 17 times the size of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report. Now, the BLS also releases a quarterly census report on employment and wages. The BLS determines its annual benchmark by comparing these varying reports and reevaluating its monthly estimates. Every March, the BLS looks at the Current Employment Statistics, or CES, survey, and looks at administrative records of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI). Around 97% of employment falls under the CES scope, and the remaining 3% is analyzed by looking at County Business Patterns or other sources like the Railroad Retirement Board. The March survey determines the “universe” count and adjusts the prior year’s monthly estimates, recalibrating the data to match the universe figure.

NonFarmPayrolls.Aug24

(August 2024 revision)

Why bother to release inaccurate data before the figure is beyond a passing grade? I explained in May that the BLS revised its data so significantly that it was forced to admit Bidenomics FAILED and the job market contracted under the Biden Administration, despite the agency claiming jobs were abundant. We live in an age where data collection is power—the United States government has the ability to track absolutely everyone and everything. Yet, they somehow drastically miss the mark when it comes to reporting on jobs. One person cannot be blamed for the gross inaccuracy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has become nothing more than a tool to manipulate public perception.

Aug 5 2025

Mercury BANNED in US Vaccines


Posted originally on Aug 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Child Vaccine

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s next step toward making America Healthy again is an outright ban on thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative, found in common vaccines. “I’m proud to finally deliver on a long-overdue promise: protecting our most vulnerable from unnecessary mercury exposure,” Kennedy stated on a video posted on X, noting that the chemical is a known neurotoxin that has been administered to millions of Americans.

The former director of the FDA, Willian Egan, admitted in 2001 that the safety of this preservative had never been studied. The government simply allowed the pharmaceutical agencies to incorporate it in vaccines to extend their shelf lives. PubMed and PubChem, as Kennedy stated, have published countless peer-reviewed studies citing thimerosal as a known carcinogen and neurotoxin. The FDA has a clear understanding that this chemical can cause reproductive issues. They are also aware that the chemical is linked to mild to severe retardation, autism, and/or motor skill impairment in children, but children are encouraged to take the vaccine to stop the spread. One study found that women had a 7.7x greater chance of miscarriage if they received the common flu vaccine while pregnant, but pregnant women are still encouraged to take the vaccination. “They had the science but chose to ignore it,” Kennedy announced. Every agency was aware that this was an ongoing danger to the public for decades. In fact, the current amount of mercury found in the common flu vaccination is 25,000 times over the EPA’s current safety level for drinking water.

These chemicals are so hazardous that they are required to be disposed of in special landfills for hazardous waste, and yet, we were permitting the pharmaceutical agencies to inject these toxins into our bodies and convincing the public that they must blindly take the vaccine for the greater good of society. No one has been allowed to comment on the dangers despite the various studies that warn against its use in humans.

VAXXED

Why is this controversial? As Kennedy stated, he has been attempting to ban mercury from fish, but no one has deemed him “anti-fish.” Anti-vax or any skepticism regarding vaccinations has been deemed a threat to the government, as the people should not question their guidance, or they will be labeled a crazed conspiracist.

This chemical was known to cause harm in humans, but it helped big pharma to increase its bottom line. It is simply a preservative with ZEO benefits. Kennedy’s declaration comes weeks after Bill Gates invested another $1.6 billion into the GAVI vaccine alliance program. The World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF, the World Bank, vaccine manufacturers, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation are all responsible for the GAVI program and they have already vaccinated 760 million children worldwide. Bill Gates happens to be the foundation’s largest donor, already contributing $7.7 billion to the cause. The European Union recently partnered with Gates to contribute funding toward GAVI as well, since all the Build Back Better nations believe in the outdated science.

Now, the only reason thimerosal is controversial is that it puts government authority into question. “The science” is never wrong, allegedly. The people should not think independently or question their overlords when they deem health precautions necessary. It’s for the greater good of the public, so they say. Yet, the public already lost trust in the government long ago, and the fallout from COVID completely dismantled any remaining trust the people had in “the science.” Kennedy’s work could actually encourage vaccinations as the people now demand transparency from their government.

Yet, vaccinations are the least of our troubles now as the government is plotting a swifter demise for the masses through warfare.

Aug 5 2025

America’s Golden Dome


Posted originally on Aug 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

GoldenDomeTrump

The United States is preparing to launch the Golden Dome project, a large-scale missile defense system to actively shield the nation against all threats by space, land, and sea. Inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome system and Reagan’s historic Strategic Defense Initiative, the Golden Dome would be the largest missile defense system in American history.

Donald Trump first proposed the idea in January 2025, but plans are underway to complete the project by the end of Trump’s second term. “They want a win to point to in November [2028],” a defense official told CNN. “And DoD [Department of Defense] wants to avoid anything they perceive will slow them down.”

The official called the proposed defense system “technically risky” due to the number of satellites required to achieve success. Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein commented, “I think the real technical challenge will be building of the space-based interceptor. That technology exists, I believe. I believe we have proven every element of the physics, that we can make it work. What we have not proven is, first, can I do it economically, and then second, can I do it at scale? Can I build enough satellites to get after the threat? Can I expand the industrial base fast enough to build those satellites?” The Missile Defense Agency, expected to be called FTI-X for Flight Test Integrated, has plans to begin testing the system in 2028.

The project will cost the United States $175 billon dollars, or at least that is the extremely low figure the White House is stating. The $25 billion down payment was allocated under the Big Beautiful Bill spending package, but the government currently estimates it will take 20 years to pay the bill in its entirety. Some predictions state the costs could spike into the trillions if the project evolves and new technology is required.

GoldenDome.Russia.China_.JointStatement

Trump was unable to secure a tiny fraction of that amount to build a border wall during his first term, but he may achieve success this time around as the threat is a bipartisan issue—Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. These deemed enemy nations have already stated that the Golden Dome would launch a massive arms race to militarize space.

China expressed concerns back in May 2025. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated: “The project will heighten the risk of turning space into a war zone and creating a space arms race, and shake the international security and arms control system… Golden Dome intends to create an unconstrained, global, multi-layer and multi-domain missile defense system, planning the expansion of the U.S. arsenal of means for combat operations in outer space… China is gravely concerned.”

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin released a joint statement in May regarding the project, deeming it
“deeply destabilizing.” “The recently announced large-scale ‘Golden (Iron) Dome for America’ program is also deeply destabilizing… [It] provides for a significant strengthening of the arsenal for conducting combat operations in space.”

Russia believes it has the technology to penetrate any air defense system. “Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that our strategic systems are equipped so that we can reliably break through any air defense systems, including layered ones,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated. Russia does not want the American neocons to believe they are invincible.

Russia has secured at least 22,000 civil defense bunkers for their people in the event of a nuclear war—America has none and the people are not mentally prepared for the threat of a nuclear attack. When events do begin to unfold, I would avoid the major cities and all the military targets. In a nuclear war, you first target your opponent’s military assets. Second, you target the economic assets. Third, you seek to wipe out the major population centers.

Russia could simply deploy a dozen EMPs across the US and our industry would totally shut down, our people would die-off like flies and nothing would work. So, Russia, China and North Korea will probably focus most of the nuclear weapons on military targets and let a dozen EMPs destroy our power-grid-dependent people. Golden Dome will provoke furious opposition from Russia and China because it undermines their nuclear deterrent. The risk is that it accelerates an arms race, potentially destabilizing decades of strategic treaties. Yet, the project is essential in a world where hypersonic and nuclear threats are no longer theoretical but immediate. This project reflects a shift toward space as the next battlefield.

Aug 5 2025

Los Angeles County Board Profiting on Homeless Epidemic


Posted originally on Aug 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Homeless

Politicians, NGOs, and shady nonprofits have been profiting on California’s homeless crisis for years. Taxpayers continue to pour money into the situation, without their consent, but the unhoused population continues to rise. I’ve spoken out about this blatant ongoing corruption numerous times. Once again, California Democrats have found a way to steal tens of millions from taxpayers under the guise of fixing the homeless epidemic.

The  Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors in Torrance has plans to purchase a $30 million building with 122 units under Governor Gavin Newsom’s Homekey+ plan. The first glaring discrepancy is pricing—city leaders appraised the building to be worth between $9.2 million and $10.2 million. Why are politicians demanding an additional $20 million?

The Torrance City Council unanimously voted against the project back in May 2025, stating that it would be a threat to public safety. The selected location is also near the main commercial hub of the city, which would detract customers, and would also be located near a middle school. The city of Torrance proposed two alternative locations for the homeless center, and yet, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors denied both options despite them being city-owned.

“Our responsibility as a city is to listen to our residents and act in a way that reflects our community’s values,” said Torrance Mayor George K. Chen. “The results of this independent appraisal reinforce the concerns many in our city have already raised.”

The extent of corruption goes deeper. The 2025 LAHSA Point-in-Time Count compiled by the county, as reported by RedState, found that there are only 50 homeless people regularly living in Torrance. Worse, there are 171 existing in place for those 50 individuals. There is a tiny home village in Torrance with space for 40 people, but only 9 people chose to leave the streets to live there and the pilot program was considered a failure.

The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors is acting recklessly and wasting public funds for their own gain. There would be no need for these organizations if the homeless crisis were actually solved.

Aug 5 2025

The Rare Earth Crisis


Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Rare Earths

QUESTION: If Trump imposes sanctions on China for buying Russian energy, what do you expect China to do?

Rob

ANSWER:  The deeper you look, the more it becomes abundantly clear. America’s defence supply chain is built on materials it doesn’t control. Missiles, fighter jets, radar systems, drones — all depend on a steady stream of materials like gallium, germanium, and rare earth magnets, and they come from China. That is why Trump was demanding access to Ukraine. This is not something that is widely discussed. But in an aggressive war, the US cannot produce jets like it did in WWII. They are more sophisticated, so you cannot produce quantities like before, and you need rare earths. NEOCONS are void of long-term strategic planning. They only look at what is in front of their nose.

Aug 5 2025

Trump is Taking us into World War III listening to the Wrong People


Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

COMMENT:

Marty,

yes, they want to talk and force war by any means necessary. How

incredibly crude and predictable the words coming from the mouth of US

Ambassador to NATO, Matt Whitaker, are. Although I know, especially

based on historical facts from WW1 and WW2, how war propaganda and the

demonization of the enemy work, I am still shocked every time by how

blatantly and crudely they keep doing it. I am even more shocked every

time by how stupid the vast majority of people are.

There are times when I would even welcome a population exchange and

extermination of the Western world in the hope and with the stupid but

human impulse that this would eradicate a large part of the evil. I am

fully aware that this is not true. But the human impulse still rises

within me.

I have sons and grandchildren; we left Europe last decade! Especially

because of your predictions! We hope to be far away from the catastrophe

unfolding here in the coming years.

Marty, we owe you a great deal for making the timely decision to leave

Europe.

US Ambassador to NATO, Matt Whitaker:

It’s impossible to get into the mind of Vladimir Putin because it’s sick

and twisted and probably not logical.

But I’m guessing he doesn’t want to take on the most powerful military

in the world, which is the United States of America.

GB

Incompetent

REPLY: This is the problem. Whitaker’s arrogance thinks that the US is so powerful that it can crush Russia without ever firing a shot and calling Putin “sick and twisted” when we started this war, and there were TWO peace deals which the WEST broke – not Russia. I have NEVER in my entire life witnessed such INCOMPETENT diplomacy. The Neocons have been instructing Trump to be strong and yield nothing to Putin, and he will fold.  Peace is easy. Just HONOR the Minsk Agreement. But this is a war to destroy Russia, and Trump is a fool who is being played just like George Bush, Jr.

Financial Capital World Economy

China has already said that they will NOT let Russia lose BECAUSE they know they will be next. The ONLY way to defend against our insane Neocons is to pull together as a united front with Russia, China, North Korea, and others against the West. Both India and China have previously been the financial capitals of the world. Just as Europe lost that because of two world wars, we will do the same.

WWIII Sides

These Neocons have waged endless wars, and they have lost EVERY SINGLE ONE! They think this will be just a war against Russia, and they can tell China to wait for its turn. This is a war against NATO and China, along with everyone else tired of this Neocon arrogance, will join to eradicate the West.

NATO_Defeat Russia_in_3_Days Adam Kinzinger

These insane and arrogant Neocons are just full of themselves. They are NEVER the ones on the battlefield. They send everyone else’s children to die for their aspirations of world dominance and glory. Make no mistake. They seek what they accuse their adversaries of doing – the conquest of the world.

Neocon Propaganda

This is the story they always put out. Russia is losing, and we can crush them like an ant.

DJIND W Array 8 4 25

The computer shows shift changes as of next week, escalating into the week of the 18th. So let me see, Trump will impose crushing sanctions on China for buying Russian oil? They are supposed to bend the knee and say Oh, sorry. We will buy from the US instead? That would be a massive loss of face. Every ultimatum coming out of Trump’s mouth is pushing China and Russia closer together.

Here is Tony Blair’s Apology for listening to the NEOCONS.

Here is General Wesley Clark, who was shocked when the Neocons told him they wanted to conquer the entire Middle East with American troops.

2022 Intl War Index

I’m not sure we will have a recording of Trump’s apology for starting World War III. I had hoped he would keep us out. I was wrong. The computer has always been correct. We have a major war on the horizon, and it does not look good.

Aug 5 2025

George Bush Admitted Iraq War was a Mistake


Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Aug 4 2025

Consumer Sentiment Not Indicative of Consumer Spending


Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

American Consumer

Consumer sentiment remained elevated for the second consecutive month but remains worse than in December 2024, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. Sentiment rose 1.6% in July from June, reaching a reading of 61.7 from 60.7. However, overall sentiment has been 17% beneath December’s reading, although it rebounded from April’s low when the market experienced a sharp downturn due to tariff fears.

“Although recent trends show sentiment moving in a favorable direction, sentiment remains broadly negative,” Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in the report. “Consumers are hardly optimistic about the trajectory of the economy, even as their worries have softened since April 2025.”

Inflationary fears declined for the second consecutive month as well, dropping from 5% in June to 4.5% in July after peaking at 6.6% in May, again, as a result of tariff uncertainty. Consumers believe inflation will wane in the long run for the third consecutive month, with the figure declining from 4% in June to 3.4% in July, which marks the lowest reading in 2025.

The Consumer Confidence Index, as reported by the Conference Board, rose 2 points to 97.2 in July, and June’s figure was revised to 95.2. The short-term outlook on the Expectations Index rose 4.5 points to 74.4, yet has been below the recession threshold of 80 since February. Business and labor market conditions, as measured by the Present Situation Index, fell 1.5 points to 131.5.

Yet, the Kansas City Fed noted that consumer sentiment is no longer an accurate reading for consumer spending. “Recent data suggest consumer sentiment has been declining for the past several months, signaling a potential slowdown in spending. However, most measures of actual spending, such as core retail sales and PCE, have remained relatively stable. This discrepancy raises the question of how useful consumer attitudes are in predicting actual spending,” the Fed questioned, later concluding, “Consistent with evidence from the prior 30 years, the near-term outlook for spending growth looks similar regardless of whether we account for the recent weakening in consumer sentiment.”

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also stated “the link between sentiment data and consumer spending has been weak. It’s not been a strong link at all…it wouldn’t be the case that we’re looking at [consumer sentiment] and just completely dismissing it. But it’s another reason to wait and see.”

Consumers are continually pessimistic, albeit less so, as prices remain elevated. We saw a sharp downturn in consumer sentiment with the peak in inflation during 2022. However, regardless of how one feels about the economy, consumers are forced to spend more on less. The FOMC will no longer use consumer sentiment as a strong gauge for future spending or GDP calculations since the correlation remains weak.

Aug 4 2025

Retail and Tech Jobs At-Risk in the US


Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Technology

US employers have reduced their workforce more in the first seven months of 2025 than in all of 2024. The DOGE cuts to the public sector were the primary driver of layoffs; however, there has been a notable drop in retail and technology positions in the private sector.

July alone saw 62,000 jobs reduced from the workforce, a 30% increase from June and 140% from July 2024. Over 806,000 positions were removed from January to July, surpassing the 761,358 job cuts in all of 2024.

Public sector positions in government saw the largest reduction at 292,294 positions. The current administration implemented the largest public sector reduction in modern US history by offering over 2 million government employees a buyout. Around 65,000 people accepted the buyout offer within the first two weeks alone. Additionally, DOGE halted grant funding to various NGOs and non-profits, leading to 17,826 fires, which amounts to a 413% annual reduction. None of these positions contributed to the US GDP.

The private sector shed 33,000 positions in June 2025, marking the first contraction in the private sector in nearly two years. For 2025 overall, the sectors facing the steepest layoffs are technology (-89,251) and retail (-80,487).

A few major tech companies implemented large layoffs this year such as Intel (-21,000), Microsoft (-15,000), PayPal (-2,500), and HP (-2,000). The advancement of Artificial Intelligence has led to a drastic reduction in workers in the technology sector, with some reports believing that AI is replacing around 491 tech jobs per day. We’ve seen a 36% decline in tech jobs this year compared to last as technology advances. Another issue has been outsourcing positions to places like India. The US outsourced 300,000 tech-based jobs overall to India as offshoring trends continue. Not only is labor cheaper, but India produces over 1.5 million engineering graduates annually. Visa restrictions have less of an impact as remote work is commonplace.

Retail experienced the second-largest decline in private sector roles with a 249% annual decline. Brick and mortar stores are deteriorating as another casualty of creative destruction as consumers prefer to spend online. Various articles are blaming tariffs and price increases for the drop in retail positions, but consumers are simply spending less. Around 20,000 retail positions were lost to AI automation, especially for basic roles and inventory management. American consumers have never rebounded from the increased cost of living. Credit card delinquencies and bankruptcies continue to reach new highs, and every survey indicates that households are spending more on less and focusing their resources on the basics.

Technology and retail are sensitive to advancements in AI. Offshoring has drastically cut competitiveness for American workers in tech. There is an offshoring corporate tax penalty of 28% but it is safe to assume that this figure will rise. As for AI, the government hasn’t found a way to tax robotic systems, but rest assured they will find a way.

Aug 4 2025

Americans Losing Hope in Social Security


Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Social Security

Young Americans know that they are forced to pay into a system that will produce returns. A new study by AARP found that confidence in Social Security has plummeted to a 15-year low. The government has successfully run this Ponzi Scheme for 90 years, but in due time, it will run out of money.

According to the survey, confidence in Social Security fell to 36%, nearing the all-time low of 35% experienced in 2010. Only a quarter of respondents between 18 and 49 expressed confidence in the system, compared to 48% of Americans over 50 who believe they will see a return. Still, 69% of Americans overall felt that Social Security was an important program.

Why? Why must we permit the government to claim a portion of our pay only to redistribute it back to us at a loss? Individuals would receive far greater returns if permitted to independently invest those funds. Similar to tax refunds where the government steals a portion of our pay only to hand it back to us at the end of the fiscal year, Social Security is another interest-free loan for the government that does not benefit the people.

As of June 2025, 53 million retired Americans and 7.1 million Americans with disabilities received Social Security, with the average monthly payment amounting to $2,005. That is not enough to live on anywhere. Yet, 24 million families rely on Social Security as their primary source of income. The aforementioned study found that 78% of people realize that Social Security will not cover their living expenses upon retirement. A quarter of respondents on 50 said that they are not factoring in Social Security payments in their retirement plans as they know the jig is up.

It comes as no surprise that analysts are projecting Social Security to run dry by 2034, aligning closely with the computer’s date of 2032 when the entire world will experience a drastic transformation. Those same analysts believe that the program will need to rely entirely on payroll tax revenue once the general fund becomes depleted.

Social Security cannot survive. Social Security invests 100% in government bonds, meaning it does not earn a fair interest rate. I spoke with Congress in the 90s and urged them to transform it into a wealth fund allocated out among managers. The Democrats voted against the privatization of Social Security. The fund would be more than abundant had it been permitted to invest in equities or anything other than government debt. It never should have been a political decision.

So those deciding not to factor in Social Security payments are wise. Those who feel angered that they must continue paying into this failing system are also awakened to the truth—Social Security is in its final stages until collapse.