The banking crisis continues and it is impacting funds that have been buying bonds. Allianz, a subsidiary of Pimco, is writing off countless millions with Credit Suisse bonds. The banking crisis has been the result of artificially low-interest rates for far too long and banks were used to free money and buy long-term bonds all because they were making their money on the spread. Now that rates are rising, their risk management was effectively nonexistent, and thus the losses and widespread.
The Allianz subsidiary Pimco is one of the largest asset managers in the world. They have to now write off a loss in Credit Suisse bonds and it’s ain’t over yet as we head into April 10th.
At a certain point you have to wonder if the scale of the “dual justice” visibility is not intended to provoke a political crisis. If this is the motive, we are heading to a very dark place.
During his opening monologue last night, Tucker Carlson outlines the latest expectations in the arrest of President Trump and the pending criminal indictments of more than a thousand people related to the events of January 6, 2021. WATCH:
Posted originally on the CTH on March 21, 2023 | Sundance
Not much really needs to be said about this. After all of the effort and thousands of man-hours put into the political weaponized construct by Soros District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a high publicity handcuffed perp walk into a Manhattan courtroom is the ultimate leftist end goal.
According to The Daily Mail, here’s the details for the next several days:
DAILY MAIL – Donald Trump will likely be indicted on Wednesday but won’t appear before a judge in New York until next week, DailyMail.com has learned. ‘There will be no arraignment this week,’ a source familiar with the proceedings told DailyMail.com exclusively on Tuesday.
The former president, who is currently in Florida, is expected to be formally charged tomorrow, after which the Manhattan District Attorney’s office will reach out to Trump and his Secret Service detail to make arrangements for his surrender, according to the insider.
He will then fly to New York where he will be arraigned, fingerprinted, and pose for his mug shot.
Meanwhile, it’s all-hands-on-deck for the New York Police Department and Metro Police Department as all officers on Tuesday are expected to be in uniform, ready for anything in the wake of the potential indictment.
Officials in New York City and Washington, D.C., are preparing for possible unrest and demonstrations following the former president’s plea to his supporters to ‘protest, protest, protest’ in response to a potential indictment handed down by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg over hush money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels.
Trump, 76, said last week that he expected to be arrested on Tuesday, but a law enforcement official told DailyMail.com that an indictment would likely happen on Wednesday at the earliest. (read more)
Computer repair shop owner John Paul Mac Isaac was in the wrong place at the wrong time. He found the horrendous, unspeakable content on Hunter Biden’s laptop from hell. John Paul thought he did the right thing by contacting the authorities, but they were in the Biden crime family’s pocket. The FBI stormed his shop and locked away the laptop. No one was permitted to say that the laptop even existed. Now, Hunter Biden is filing legal charges against the computer shop owner for violating his privacy. America is not a democracy; Joe Biden is a tyrant who is above the law.
The nerve these people have where they believe they have the “privacy” to conceal CP and treasonous secrets against the US. The contents of the computer were discovered on June/July 2019, before his dad could be installed as president. Intelligence agencies threatened media platforms such as Facebook and warned them against uncovering the story. Zuckerburg even admitted to censoring any story involving the laptop during Joe Biden’s presidential run. Everyone knows the truth behind the curtain but the public was brainwashed into believing it was all a big lie.
Hunter Biden finally admitted that the laptop was his in February 2023. Actually, he alluded that the laptop could be his in a statement written by his lawyers. So for three years, CNN, NYT, Washington Post, MSNBC, and nearly every media outlet denied that the laptop existed. Believe it or not, they actually tried to blame RUSSIA for Hunter Biden’s depraved recorded behavior.
The shop owner really is innocent in all of this mess, and it shows how the Bidens truly do not care about the average person. The owner looked at the contents of the computer because the laptop owner, who admittedly was using crack cocaine and other illegal drugs at the time, failed to pick it up within 90 days and could not be reached. I can assure you that the contents of that computer would send anyone to jail for a very long time. His father, the sitting US president, would also be sent to jail if this were a just system. Around 67% of the American people wanted Joe Biden impeached over the contents of the laptop before Hunter’s team even admitted it was real. Show the public the truth of Joe Biden’s treasonous involvement before the next election — the people have a right to know who they are voting for.
The Chinese yuan has out-traded the US dollar by volume for one of the first times in recent Russian history. The dollar was king in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed, but that is no longer the case after Moscow branded the dollar a “toxic currency” along with the euro. Toxic currencies accounted for 87% of exports from Russia at the beginning of 2022, but this figure fell to 48% by the start of the new year. The Bank of Russia has reported that the proportion of USD/ruble pair in exchange fell to only 36% in February. The central bank is calling this a “broad structural transformation of the Russian economy.”
As “unfriendly countries” and their “toxic currencies” band together, those on the outskirts are winning. China has become the new go-to country for new trade partnerships as it bypasses Western-imposed sanctions. Toxic currencies represented 46% of imports in December 2022 but were at 65% in January 2022 before the war. In contrast, the yuan’s share rose from 4% to 23% during that time.
Those who were previously shunned from the big table are now pulling up a chair to discuss economic prospects with China. This will make it much easier to phase out toxic currencies because more people are willing to accept the yuan. The confidence in the yuan is growing. Everything occurring may seem odd, but it is precisely on target. As I mentioned in my report“China on the Rise,” China will dethrone the United States to become the world’s leading economic powerhouse by 2032. It’s just time.
ANSWER: Your problem is the assumption that everything must be trading at some fair value. That is up there with the theory of random walks. ALL markets trade for periods where they remain well below fair value. That was the entire takeover boom of the 1980s which they also blamed on me because I was advising many of the takeover players. I simply showed these charts back then which show in terms of book value, the Dow Jones bottomed in 1977. The market was grossly undervalued because you could buy a company, sell all its tangible assets, and double or triple your money. Michael Douglas’ famous speech in that movie about “greed” would not even be possible if everything always trade like some mythical robot at fair value. Everything overshoots and undershoots.
The metals are NO DIFFERENT. Every market swings between grossly UNDERVALUED and then grossly OVERVALUED. This is part of the business cycle. If there were no periods of gross undervaluations, there would not be a sudden boom either.
This is what you have to come to grips with. There is such a thing and the business cycle. Our cyclical analysis would not be possible if everything was trading at a flat line of fair value. This nonsense in metals is made up of people who have been wrong, and need to blame someone else. It is like blaming climate cycles on CO2. This notion of fair value is rooted, I hate to tell you, in Marxism, because he too did not understand the business cycle.
When the House votes unanimously, there is usually a larger issue at play. It was announced on Friday that the US House of Representatives and the Senate unanimously agreed to declassify information regarding the origins of COVID. Let us recall that one side of the political spectrum effectively shut down the entire economy and used the people as puppets to push forth their COVID agenda of vaccinations and lockdowns. When the House votes unanimously, one must look closer at the agenda on the macro level.
The decision to declassify the origins of COVID will likely not lead to the arrest of Fauci, Gates, Soros, or any of the other big players who advised on policies that directly harmed the people and economy. The pharmaceutical companies will not be charged for injecting countless people with an experimental substance, and the powers who enforced vaccine mandates will be blameless. Again, one side of the political spectrum supported the harshest COVID laws imaginable, and revealing the truth behind the virus would be detrimental to their party. So why the unanimous vote?
When the house votes unanimously, there is a common enemy. It is no secret that the US is instigating China to enter World War III. As I mentioned in a separate post, Western intelligence agencies are threatening China for conspiring to supply Moscow with aid, despite having no known leads. China is attempting to remain neutral, but anti-Chinese sentiment is subtly rising in the mainstream media. It was almost illegal to say that the virus was deliberately leaked from a lab in Wuhan. Trump was called a racist for calling COVID “the China virus,” and anyone who mentioned a lab leak on social media was immediately deplatformed.
However, the need for a common enemy has arrived as the US economy is in shambles and confidence in government continues to plummet. The propaganda emerging is that China is solely to blame for the coronavirus. The loss of life and business is due to China. Any issue you may have faced due to the coronavirus or consequential mandates is solely due to China. Avert your attention from your own government’s misdoings and blame the common enemy.
Christopher Wray of the FBI told Fox News that his agency is aware of “a potential leak from a Chinese government-controlled lab.” If a civilian said this one year ago, they would have been called a conspiracy theorist. “I will just make the observation that the Chinese government, it seems to me, has been doing its best to try to thwart and obfuscate the work here, the work that we’re doing, the work that our U.S. government and close foreign partners are doing. And that’s unfortunate for everybody,” Wray said. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan claims that uncovering the source of the leak is a top priority for President Biden, who had no interest in this previously.
Justice will not be served. The government can no longer use COVID as a power grab, but it can use COVID to demonize its opponent and push China into war.
A bank failure of this proportion has not been seen since 2008 when Washington Mutual failed. The majority of deposits in Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) are uninsured, meaning the FDIC’s $250,000 protection does not apply. Uninsured depositors will be provided receivership certificates and should receive an advanced dividend this week. The FDIC must sell off the remaining assets of SVC to determine how much it can provide to those uninsured depositors. The FDIC is encouraging borrowers to continue paying their existing loans. The bank was said to host $209 billion in assets and $175.4 billion in deposits as of December 2022. Washington Mutual held around $307 billion in assets when it went down.
Tons of people and businesses will be completely screwed over. Who could have seen it coming? Silicon Valley Bank CEO, CFO, and CMO sold off millions in stock over the past two weeks. President and CEO Greg Becker sold 12,451 shares on February 27 for $3.6 million at $287.42 per share. Later that day, he purchased options for the same amount of shares at $105.18 a piece. He did the same thing in December 2021, as this is not an uncommon albeit unethical practice. Banks commonly trade against their own clients. Becker sold about $3.57 million worth of SVB stock over the past two weeks and is now making TV appearances saying he did not see this coming.
There were signs of trouble, but the talking heads said otherwise. Forbes even listed SVB Financial Group as #20 on its list of America’s Best Banks in an article published on February 14, 2023. Talking/screaming head Jim Cramer came out last month to say that SVB Financial would become one of the top performers on the S&P. This is why you cannot listen to information based on biased opinions. I hesitate to call this negligence technical analysis.
Companies are now at a complete loss, many cannot make payroll, and this situation will only worsen once the uninsured depositors realize their IOUs are worthless.
COMMENT: Marty; Two former Merrill Lynch traders were each sentenced to a year and a day in prison Thursday for manipulating the precious metals markets, the US Department of Justice announced. Of course, —- —–, which is forever bullish metals, claims they moved the metals in the “direction they wanted from 2008 to 2014.” It just seems that people claim it is always manipulation when they have been wrong. They only look at gold in dollars as you have said it’s a global market. They would have to manipulate all the currencies as well.
This latest affair of so-called manipulating trades during the day proves what you have been saying. They have always been gunning for stops during the day, but they cannot manipulate the trend between a bull or bear market. Do you think people will ever understand this is a global economy?
HD
ANSWER: I know. Unless people have actually been a trader, they will never understand the market. They will blame people like this to pretend they were not wrong. The problem is that this nonsense of manipulation is driving a stake through the heart of the market. Trading is like a poker game. Do you reveal your hand before everyone starts to bet? Sometimes you bluff, but the point is if you are bluffing, you have to stand behind your bet.
The mere fact that someone is blaming this type of “manipulation” for being the reason they have been wrong demonstrates that they know nothing about investing no less trading. The DOJ is now big on calling placing large “spoof” orders as manipulation. That is absurd and it is no more than bluffing in a poker game. This is the way all the markets have always functioned. Everyone would know where the stops were anyway. Sometimes they traded ahead of them using the stops as your risk point to exit the trade, and other times they would sell or buy to push the market through the stops when it was obvious that was even possible.
When I was trading in precious metals back in the ’90s, the biggest “local” dealer on the floor was Oni Morrison. He would do “spoof” orders all the time which I called “flash” bids or offers. The difference was he was good for it if hit. I was long one time in gold and I wanted out for the computer projected a crash was coming. But if you offer a thousand lots and the market was heading lower, everyone will read that and jump in front of you. That is how the Hunts went bankrupt. The Hunts did not know how to trade. Just as in poker, you cannot show your hand and expect to trade.
Oni would do “flash” bids or offers. I told my broker not to offer anything. I told him just to watch Oni and as soon as he would do a 1,000 flash to buy – say done! Sure enough, Oni was trying to push the market back up and he did one of his famous flash bids for 1,000 lots. My broker, Emerald Trading, instantly said “DONE!” Oni did it again, and they said “DONE!” Again he did a fash for 1,000 and again they said “DONE!” That was it. Oni was full and everyone began selling as the metals tumbled.
That is the way you have to trade SIZE. This is the very foundation of trading all markets for everything is just a poker game. To now call a “spoof” trade manipulation is just wrong. It is totally different when you do not have the backing. Now that would be a fraud and trying to manipulate the market for that moment – not changing the overall trend. But when you have the backing to honor your “spoof” it is just a “flash” bid or offer that you must stand behind when hit. That is just trading.
It is total BS to pretend that these guys manipulated the entire market. That is just absurd. Not even the central bank can manipulate the economy. You cannot “manipulate” a market against the trend for everything is connected. That caused the Panic of 1893 when the Silver Democrats overpriced silver. The Europeans hit the arbitrage and dumped silver in the US and took the gold back to Europe. That led J.P. Morgan to have to arrange a $100 million gold loan to bail out the treasury. That alone proved that you CANNOT manipulate ANY market against its trend for it will be arbitraged internationally – plain & simple.
Gold trading around the world in different exchanges is arbitraged. You cannot have gold $20 high in one market v another. It will be arbitraged instantly. Those who claim this as “proof” that the metals have been manipulated so that is why they have not rallied and why they have been wrong are fools who have been separated from the money. They will never understand the markets no less be able to see beyond the end of their nose. It will be instantly arbitraged.
The collapse of the Soloman Brothers was precisely that. They were putting in bids at the Treasury Auction using other people’s names to goose the market. They got caught and the firm was taken down. I know PhiBro from the ’70s and ’80s. They took over Solomon Brothers and brought that style of trading from the commodity pits to Wall Street.
This excuse by goldbugs that the metals were actually “manipulated” in their long-term trend, shows their hopeless ignorance of the markets and how they even trade. There is NOBODY who could possibly do such a thing for everything connected. As soon as the dollar would rise, the metals in terms of foreign currency would be so overvalued they would all sell and they will end up broke the same as the Silver Democrats bankrupted the country by overvaluing silver.
Trading internationally, with clients in all currencies, we have to look at each market in terms of their currency for that will determine if they made a profit or loss. Anyone who claims the metals have been manipulated and that is why they have not rallied is obviously oblivious to the world around them.
Gold does NOT rise with inflation – that is the sales pitch of a used car salesman. Gold rises in times of UNCERTAINTY with respect to the government. In times of war, it rises because it is NEUTRAL and you are not betting on who will win.
All we hear is that the debt is rising and therefore gold will explode. Once again, they offer no proof of their sophistry because there is no such proof. Gold declined for 19 years while the national debt climbed endlessly.
Then there is the myth about interest rates and gold that higher rates are bearish and lower rates are bullish. Well, interest rates peaked in 1981 and declined in 1994 before they began to rise marginally into 1995. Yet then contrast that myth with the performance of the dollar. There the greenback rose to a record high in 1985 but then declined for 10 years into 1995 all the while gold declined into 1999.
OK, so now let’s look at gold between 1980 and 200 in terms of Swiss francs and British pounds. We can instantly see that gold bottomed in 1985 in terms of the Swiss franc. In terms of British pounds, gold did not bottom until 1999.
People come up with theories all the time. However, they always try to reduce everything to a single cause and effect. They are doing that with climate change. They are telling the world it is CO2 that has changed the climate without ever addressing anything else.
The world we live in is not only complex, but it is also so dynamic it appears that no human can correctly forecast the future with an “I think” scenario. Sometimes they will be right, and others they will be wrong. Typically, they fail because they try to reduce the world to a single cause and effect.
Gold Rises with UNCERTAINTY with respect to the question of will the government survive its own madness.
The Biden Administration is responding to the panic phone calls that their Marxist philosophy will bring down the entire financial system. My ear is red as can be. I have had enough of the phone calls today to last the balance of the month. Trying just to do the right thing! Three banks have effectively gone down in the week of March 6th, which our computer was targeting. There have been Silicon Vally Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergat Bank.
The Regulators perhaps saw the handwriting on the wall. This NO BAILOUT claiming that no taxpayer money will be used for a bailout of their hated rich, how about just using the taxpayer’s money you are throwing down the train in Ukraine? Depositors in Signature and SVB they are now saying would be made whole. If they do not cover ALL deposits, the monumental banking failure will be catastrophic.
Our forecast for a Banking Crisis is by NO MEANS confined to the United States. It will be far worse in Europe. We can see our computer not only targeted 2023 for a key turning point with a Directional Change but a Panic Cycle next year in bank stocks, but interest rates will be rising higher as also the risk of banks and governments escalated especially when they insist on waging war against Russia.
The yield curve is critical and we must understand that this insane war against Russia, even economically, will be a major financial disaster not much different from Vietnam which brought down Bretton Woods and forced Nixon to close the gold window on August 15th, 1971. It was that unrestrained spending directed by the Neocons. Then too, it was all about Russia they assumed was behind Vietnam.
Once more, the reckless spending on war promoted by the Neocons is undermining the entire economy. They have lost every war they have promoted – Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, proposed Syria, Libya regime change, and now Ukraine. These people are never held accountable for all the devastation and the lives lost.
War is the primary driver of inflation and the central banks will not even address it for they do not want to “criticize” the Neocons. They might wake up with their dog’s head in the bed as in the Godfather. The central banks will NOT be able to contain this inflation or ever reach their 2% target regardless if the economy turns down just as what happened during Vietnam.
This is a warning to all small banks. Understand the REAL trend or you will NOT survive. Major capital is fleeing the long-term and rising into the short-term because they see rates are rising and any long-term bond investment during a period of war is going to be a major losing trade. Do not get trapped by the yield curve and understand that this trend is in play into 2025.
This Banking Crisis has been caused by Governments who artificially kept interest rates too low since 2008 and in the process, this banking crisis is unfolding because too many banks are UNSOPHISTICATED in forecasting and have been listening to the talking heads on TV and the desperate hope that inflation will decline while ignoring Ukraine entirely. Get that wrong – and you will NOT survive.
I strongly urge small banks to take our business services for access to real forecasting that is not biased or tarnished by human opinion with the two most dangerous words in forecasting:
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