Beware of Fuel Theft


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jun 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

OK. I suppose it was just a matter of time. In Thailand, a clever thief drilled into car’s fuel tank to steal the gasoline. In the United States, people are complaining about the fuel cost of $5 a gallon. In Europe, they sell it by the liter. In Europe, when on par with the United States, one gallon is now running for $10 a gallon. With the model projecting that we can see oil run-up to over $200 in 2023, we are looking at crazy times in energy which will come back as civil unrest.

Understanding Insurrections for Dummies


Armstron Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jun 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

El Erian Thinks the FED Will Flip-Flop on Rates in Response to Demand Side Contraction


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 17, 2022 | Sundance 

Mohamed El-Erian, a Blooomberg Opinion contributor, cracks me up in his efforts to avoid speaking directly.  Generally, El-Erian knows the situation, he was one of the first to identify the issue with inflation in March 2021.   However, he continues avoiding any mention that the U.S. economy is already in a negative position for growth.

Consider this…. In this interview El-Erian says he believes the Fed will flip-flop and lower rates in reaction to what is happening in the economy.  Keep in mind, the only reason for the Fed to reverse rates so quickly is if the economy is already in a demand side contraction and the latest .75% increase in rate is being done into a negative GDP environment.

Of course, the reality is exactly that.  The U.S. economy is already contracting, mostly because of inflation chewing up the supply side, and the Fed is factually raising interest rates into an economy already in a demand side recession.  But everyone must pretend that’s not the case, so here’s El-Erian saying Jerome Powell is going to end up reversing himself, flip-flopping, which doesn’t make sense if you don’t first establish that the economy is right now shrinking as he speaks.  WATCH:

White House Solution to Gas Prices, Send Taxpayer Funded Gas Cards to Taxpayers Who Cannot Afford Gas


Posted originally on the conservative tree house June 17, 2022 | Sundance

Y’all saw this coming months ago.  The Biden administration is now considering sending taxpayer funded “gas cards” to taxpayers who cannot afford the gasoline prices created by the Biden administration energy policy.  Yes, murica’ it’s a circle of stupid.

WASHINGTON – […] Biden officials are taking a second look at whether the federal government could send rebate cards out to millions of American drivers to help them pay at gas stations — an idea they examined months ago before ruling it out. Aides had found that shortages in the U.S. chip industry would make it hard to produce enough rebate cards, two people familiar with the matter said. White House officials also fear there would be no way to prevent consumers from using them for purchases other than gasoline, according to another person familiar with the discussions.

[…] Biden aides have also looked in recent days at invoking the Defense Production Act to move diesel and other refined products should localized shortages materialize, two people familiar with the matter said.

[…] The revived brainstorming reflects how higher fuel costs have emerged as one of the Biden administration’s chief political threats and a serious hurdle for the economy overall. (read more)

The Federal Reserve Cannot Combat Inflation Alone


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jun 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was notably frustrated when pressured about the Fed’s role in inflation. During his Q&A session this Wednesday, Powell plainly stated that the Federal Reserve alone could not combat inflation. It is far more complex than simply raising rates and hoping for the best. The Federal Reserve cannot increase the supply to meet demand. They have no say over clogged ports and closed factories. The Federal Reserve cannot reverse Biden’s policies that have made America energy-dependent, nor can it reserve sanctions against countries that hold essential supplies. As an independent entity, the Federal Reserve has no control over tariffs or diplomatic relations with regard to trade. Notably, the Federal Reserve cannot combat excessive government spending.

The US just sent another billion to Ukraine and plans to continue funding another endless war that does not support any domestic policy objectives. Jerome Powell has no control over the promises politicians make on the campaign trail to distribute free money to the public in exchange for votes. At any moment, lawmakers can implement policies that completely throw the entire economy off track. They had no say in the lockdowns or restrictions that crippled the economy in 2020.

The Federal Reserve miscalculated the situation by artificially lowering rates for a long time. They failed to look at other clear examples, such as Japan, and realize what has and has not worked historically. Powell admitted long ago that he misjudged the severity of inflation and was wrong to call it “transitory.” Unfortunately, when people in power make mistakes, the repercussions cause global shockwaves. Although separate entities, the White House needs to help the Federal Reserve tame inflation by re-evaluating its policies that are directly causing prices to rise.

Russia Gas to Europe to Stop


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jun 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Russian EU Ambassador has informed the EU that gas will stop through Nordstream because a turbine that was needed was stuck in Canada because of the sanctions. Then the biggest gas field in Siberia is now on fire. That can also provide an excuse to reduce gas delivery to Europe. This will also add to the reduction in gas supply to Europe This is making things very interesting. If Gas bottoms next week, we could be looking at much higher volatility thereafter. For now, a June closing above 625 will keep the market in a broader-term support position but a real breakout would require a close for June above 795.

The New G8


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Russia has created a new alliance that many are calling the “new G8.” Russia was expelled from the original Group of Eight in March 2014, following the annexation of Crimea. Russia stated that it did not care about the snub. “All the economic and financial questions are decided in G20, and G8 has the purpose of existence as the forum of dialogue between the leading Western countries and Russia,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated. There is no dialogue between the major Western superpowers in Russia at this point in time. Former President Obama’s ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, went as far as saying that the West must insure Russia has “no real allies.”

Due to backfiring sanctions, Russia certainly does have allies and has created a new G8 for good measure. Vyacheslav Volodin, head of the State Duma, stated the following:

“The economies of the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, and Canada continue to collapse under the pressure of sanctions against Russia.

The breakup of existing economic relations by Washington and its allies has led to the formation of new points of growth in the world.

The group of eight countries that do not take part in the sanctions wars – China, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Iran, Turkey – is 24.4 per cent ahead of the old group in terms of GDP per capita.”

Volodin said that the seven named countries are interested in developing “mutually beneficial relations with Russia,” and have already seen economic progress despite ongoing sanctions. Putin has also said that he would like to collaborate with emerging economies such as certain African nations that are “still sleeping, but about to wake up.”

The plan to divorce Russia from the world economy has backfired. Russia is increasing its international partnerships and trade as a direct result of the policies aimed at isolating it from the world.

CNN Puts Inflation into a Political Context


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance

The people controlling policy behind the Biden administration do not care about polling or political consequence.  Biden is the one-term disposable tool for their collective effort to fundamentally change the United States.  They have a singular focus on pushing the most destructive and consequential Green New Deal policy regardless of collateral damage.  For them, using Joe Biden is a one-way ticket.

That said, none of the current political officeholders within the Democrat apparatus are going to escape the blast radius from this chaos.  CNN runs a segment asking the question, how bad is the damage going to be from the Joe Biden economic policy?  WATCH (90 secs):

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Mayra Flores Victory in Rio Grande Valley Election Highlights Latino Rejection of Democrat Gender Sexuality Nonsense


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance 

Much is being made of Mayra Flores flipping Texas CD-34 (South Austin through Rio Grande Valley) from democrat to republican with a special election victory last night.  Indeed, a great many cocktail class republicans, those who couldn’t identify a taco without a bell next to it, are waxing philosophically about the political ramifications and what it means.

However, in ordinary terms, what Flores did was highlight a commonsense cultural disconnect between modern leftists and working-class Latinos who carry one of the best and most valuable dispositions for this day and age…. An unwillingness to pretend.

Men have penises and cannot have babies.  Women do not have penises and can have babies. That might sound radical given the incessant drumbeat from leftist, DC, Marxist democrats who manipulate sociology and science, but it’s the truth.

Spend time with any Latino group, family, friends or coworkers and start talking about the modern political left, and you will quickly find out this is one socioeconomic group who are not into this modern cultural pretending.  Their willingness to speak quiet truth is refreshing, even if they -at first- keep quiet until they see that you are not sold into the cultural ‘isms’ of madness.

Faith and family are important to the Latino community.  Additionally, a tradition of respect for pragmatic commonsense within the social fabric of the Latin and Mexican culture also inoculates them from gender nonsense.  It takes a few generations of American cultural infection before the commonsense synapse is numbed by the democrat drumbeat.

In order for modern democrats to continue advancing their insane ideology, they must pretend not to know things.  First generation Latinos do not have any reference point to join the democrat assembly of pretending.  Mrs. Flores tapped into that cultural truth and won easily; however, I doubt the professional republican party has any idea what that means.

(Via Politico) – […] Flores sailed to victory in Texas’ 34th District, where former Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela resigned from his seat in March to work for a lobbying firm. In one of the most Latino districts in the country, and one where Democrats have routinely won by comfortable margins for years, Flores garnered 51 percent of the vote, winning the special election without a runoff. The district lines are shifting for the next election in November 2022, but she will hold this seat until January.

Flores immigrated from Tamaulipas, Mexico when she was six years old and grew up in the Rio Grande Valley region. In addition to working as a respiratory care practitioner, Flores served as the Hidalgo County GOP Hispanic Outreach chair to increase and maintain Republican support among Latinos in the area — which has been ramping up in recent years.

Before Flores won her district Tuesday, President Joe Biden carried it by 4 points over Donald Trump in 2020 — a huge shift from the previous presidential elections under these district lines, when Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012 were blown out by 20-plus points each.

While Flores grew up seeing most of her immigrant family vote blue, she eventually realized her views on religion, abortion and border security were more in line with the Republican Party. (read more)

Biden Announces Another $1 Billion in Cash to “Help Ukraine Families Purchase Essential Items”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 15, 2022 | Sundance 

The White House shares the contents of another phone call between Joe Biden and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today in a media release.  According to the details of the call, a generous Joe Biden has directed another $1 billion in aid to the laundry operation in order to assist Ukraine “families to purchase essential items.”

WHITE HOUSE – “This morning, I spoke with President Zelenskyy to discuss Russia’s brutal and ongoing war against Ukraine.

[…] I informed President Zelenskyy that the United States is providing another $1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine.

[…] We also remain committed to supporting the Ukrainian people whose lives have been ripped apart by this war. Today, I am also announcing an additional $225 million in humanitarian assistance to help people inside Ukraine, including by supplying safe drinking water, critical medical supplies and health care, food, shelter, and cash for families to purchase essential items.” (read more)