QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I find it remarkable that your model has always been correct in predicting the economy’s direction. This latest US inflation number shows that it was subsiding, cooling down to the slowest pace since 2021, right in turn with your Economic Confidence Model. Treasuries rallied on expectations that the Fed might cut rates. It seems so obvious to a blind man that your model has done what no economist has been able to do for decades. Why does academia refuse to credit you for your discovery?
SH
ANSWER: The 1960s was a wild time when I was still in high school. In Economics class, they said everything is random, and there is no definitive business cycle, so we can manipulate the economy to prevent recessions. That was the Keynesian economics. When I went to Physics class, they emphasized that nothing was random. I concluded the someone was not telling the truth and it seemed to be in the Economics class.
For you see, this was the period when the fixed exchange rate was collapsing. It was the end of Bretton Woods, and this was a confusing period for what people call today the “Everything Bubble.” Back during the 1960s, it was the “Everything Crash.” I saw everything rise to a peak and then crash from stocks and bonds to precious metals, real estate, and collectibles. This forged my understanding of the world economy, and everything was connected.
The pressure on Brettone Woods actually began with rising inflation. President Kennedy was forced to remove silver from the coinage starting in 1965. The last silver coins produced came with the peak of that ECM wave in 1964, and by 1968, that saw the first major crash in the gold standard.
Back then, the 1968 financial crisis forced the two-tier gold market where gold began to trade openly in London in 1968.
Gold rallied to $44, finally forcing the first crash in the gold standard. The solution was to allow a two-tier market, where the fixed rate was between countries, and the private market was allowed to float.
I remember well that in 1970, just BEFORE the fixed exchange rate collapsed in August 1971, gold fell on the London market to $34.70 BELOW the official fixed rate after it had risen to $44 in 1969, which forced the first crack in the fixed exchange rate system.
The pressure persisted, but gold fell below the official rate in 1970, and then, by August 1971, President Nixon was forced to close the gold window. In October 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) announced that it was implementing a total oil embargo against the countries that had supported Israel at any point during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
It was the bias of academia in Economics that followed Marx and then Keynes. In both theories, economists advocated intervention. Thus, economists marketed themselves as all-powerful, and they could direct the government on how to better manage the economy to eliminate the business cycle.
To this very day, academia refuses to accept the business cycle, for they always want to preach EQUALITY and fairness and constantly point to the disparity of wealth as if everyone should have exactly the same. So, they will NEVER accept my research because most of the academics follow these interventionist theories. It’s not something personal, it is just the way academia operates.
I have often been asked the question, WHY did the Greek denomination of the stater comply with the 8.6 frequency of the Economic Confidence Model? The silver stater minted at Corinth was 8.6 grams (0.28 oz) in weight, which was divided into three silver drachmae of 2.9 grams (0.093 oz). Its rival city-state was Athens, and their silver didrachm (two drachmae) weighed 8.6 grams (0.28 oz), while their Athenian silver tetradrachm (four drachmae) weighed 17.2 grams (0.55 oz).
What we do know is that the ancient Babylonians calculated the area of a circle by taking three times the square of its radius, which gave a value of pi = 3. One Babylonian tablet (ca. 1900–1680 BC) indicates a value of 3.125 for π, which is a closer approximation.
The Rhind Papyrus (ca.1650 BC) gives us insight into Advanced Ancient Egyptian mathematics. The Egyptians calculated the area of a circle using a formula that gave an approximate value of 3.1605 for π (a 0.6% margin error, extremely good even by modern standards) 4000 years before that value was fixed at 3.14. We know that the Great Pyramid’s estimated dimensions are based on Phi, which only varies by 0.025%. A pyramid based on Pi varies by only 0.1% from the Great Pyramid’s estimated dimensions.
The first Greek calculation of π was done by Archimedes of Syracuse (287–212 BC), who was one of the greatest mathematicians of the ancient world. Archimedes approximated the area of a circle by using the Pythagorean Theorem to find the areas of two regular polygons. Since the actual area of the circle lies between the areas of the inscribed and circumscribed polygons, the areas of the polygons give upper and lower bounds for the area of the circle. Archimedes knew that he had not found the value of π but only an approximation within those limits. This way, Archimedes showed that π is between 3 1/7 and 3 10/71.
Even when we look at the coinage of Syracuse, located in Sicily, we see the same standard. This is a Dekadrachm, which is 10 drachms of 4.3 grams each. We have no ancient text to resolve this mystery. It certainly appears that the coinage was based upon this understanding of Pi.
It remains a mystery why their monetary system was established at 8.6 grams. No accounts indicate why they chose this weight. I can only say that perhaps they intentionally made this a Pi derivative.
Prehistory is the period of human history between the first known use of stone tools by hominins c. 3.3 million years ago and the beginning of recorded history with the invention of writing systems. There has long been a problem with academia in every field. Once they establish a belief, they simply defend it to the last dying man. They have done that with Historia Augusta insisting that it was fake because they did not hear of certain names of Roman Emperors during the 3rd century AD. Coins, such as Saturninus and Proculus, were discovered, which clearly established that academics were wrong. To this day, even Wikipedia claims its authenticity is questionable. “The true authorship of the work, its actual date, its reliability and its purpose have long been matters for controversy by historians and scholars…”
The NETFLIX show of Graham Hancock and his Ancient Apocalypse is an excellent show where he presents his “pseudoarchaeological theories” about the alleged existence of an advanced civilization active during the last ice age. What I can say is that Scientists have recorded five significant ice ages throughout the Earth’s history: the Huronian (2.4-2.1 billion years ago), Cryogenian (850-635 million years ago), Andean-Saharan (460-430 mya), Karoo (360-260 mya) and Quaternary (2.6 mya-present). In addition, there have been about a dozen major glaciations that have occurred over the past 1 million years. These appear to be natural cyclical events that also align with the Earth’s passage around the universe. The largest such event peaked around 650,000 years ago and lasted for 50,000 years.
Hancock’s theory of civilization prehistory being destroyed by the last Ice Age, also appears to align with the legends of the Great Flood that in the Bible is said to be Noah. That most recent glaciation period or Ice Age, reached peak conditions some 18,000 years ago before giving way to the interglacial Holocene epoch 11,700 years ago. There are accounts of a great flood that appear in virtually all the earliest recordings of history.
The story of Noah’s Ark landing in what is a region of Turkey known in ancient times as Phrygia is even celebrated on Roman coins. The Ark depicted on this coin from the 2nd century AD even has the name inscribed “NOAH” on the vessel in Greek. It is entirely possible that this story dates back to the 10,000 BC era and represents the previous civilization of which Hancock has concluded existed.
What we do know is that the ancient is often built upon the ruins of the previous. The ancient city of Troy has several layers. The orientation and dispositions of the Sphinx, the Giza pyramids, and the Nile River relative to one another on the ground accurately reflect the constellations of Leo, Orion (specifically, Orion’s Belt), and the Milky Way, respectively. That does NOT mean that they were constructed 10,000 BC, but something was there previously. The Sphinx does show what appears to be water erosion marking from that period when the area was tropical. It cannot be ruled out that it was originally a lion recarved by the Egyptians thousands of years later.
About eight civilizations collapsed, with the exception of Egypt post-1250 BC. This was caused by a major shift in climate that led to droughts, which resulted in widespread famine that inspired migrations/invasions. This event of 1177 BC was the Bronze Age equivalent to the fall of Rome, for they both were followed by a Dark Age.
Many have attributed this collapse of the Bronze Age to the Sea Peoples, which were most likely northern Mediterranean mass migrants due to the colder climate in Europe. Cline has assembled a nice assembly of sources but missed the climate change. He assumed there was a migration southward. However, we can see that the first dip to the cold came about 1,800 years ago. We can see that the all-time high temperature was about 3,300 years ago.
The collapse of the Bronze Age was mostly complete by about 1100-1000 BC. Our computer has identified a 1720-year cycle beginning in the Dark Ages with the fall of Rome in 476 AD when the last pretend Emperor reigned (Romulus Augustus (575-476AD)). Our model highlighted the cycle between the Dark Ages of 1720 years, which brings us to 1244 BC — right on target for the beginning of the collapse of civilization.
All other civilizations collapsed, with the exception of Egypt post 1250 BC, but even that was greatly diminished. In school, they taught the linear version of the Sea Peoples who invaded to destroy. That storyline has long been way too simple, and Eric Cline brought a new perspective, linking it to drought and famine and the Sea Peoples, which he believed was more of a mass migration southward.
However, in addition to that, there is a major cycle on a fractal basis, which is 3096 years. Our computer has projected that there would have been a warming period of about 10,465 years again, which would have probably coincided with the thaw of the last Ice Age, which may have produced the Great Flood.
The Tropic Belt has been gradually moving northward since 1970. There is debate over what is even causing that. Nevertheless, we now understand that even the Tropic Belt is subject to cyclical movement, which may also explain the shift from a lush green environment as late as 6,000 years ago, which then turned into a desert in the Sahara. Curiously, this is about the length of recorded history. This, too, may be contributing to the illusion of global warming created by man.
All I can say is that the monetary system to have aligned with our 8,6 ECM frequency might be that this was ancient knowledge that has also been lost. They did not have TV back then and spent much time mapping the heavens. They may have discovered that Pi was indeed the secret cycle of the Universe.
Italy’s new PM, Giorgia Meloni, is learning that she cannot pick and choose what policies Italy would like to adopt from the ruling authority in the European Union. I was willing to give Meloni the benefit of the doubt after she rose to power from virtually nowhere as a perceived anti-establishment, right-winged nationalist candidate who was neither a fascist nor neo-fascist, who rose to power from virtually nowhere. Unfortunately, she has been compromised by the Neocon agenda, perhaps a bit naïve as she is a newcomer. However, Meloni is a nationalist and has begun to realize that Brussels has more authority than Rome.
The EU is pushing full speed ahead to meet climate initiatives, and they would like to ban the sale of new fossil fuel cars by 2035. Meloni believes that emissions should be reduced, but said the near 10-year plan “makes no sense,” and believes the green agenda is “pursued even at the cost of sacrificing entire production and industrial sectors, such as the automotive industry.” She stated that these measures would not only cripple the industrial sector and automotive agency, but it would cause Europe to become dependent on foreign nations. Those same foreign nations will see a boost in their workforce as well as Europe will lose thousands of positions due to lost industries.
Europe became more dependent on foreign nations for energy in general after the ruling authority at the EU blindly adopted green initiatives. Meloni does not understand that supporting Ukraine against Russia is tied into the need for foreign energy dependence. Europe shot itself in the foot by losing Russian energy, not to mention the entire Nord Stream disaster. They can say they no longer need Russian exports but Europe is still purchasing Russian gas, albeit from middlemen like India at a marked-up price. The billions utterly wasted on Ukraine will never be reinvested into Europe.
The climate change agenda destroyed America’s energy independence. There are fewer sources for the West as a whole to rely on for energy now. Meloni called the climate change agenda “ideological madness,” but she must realize that the climate change agenda is tied into this push for the next world war. The EU does not want to default on its debt and this push for war is a way to ensure it is swept under the rug. Climate change initiatives, global conflicts, the coming push for digital currencies – all of this was laid out plain as day in the plans for the Great Reset. This is not the first time Meloni has dissented with the EU-World Economic Forum partnership as she rejected the woke agenda in an attempt to preserve Italy’s Catholic roots.
Climate change is not an isolated issue as it directly connects to plans to change the global economy and civilization as a whole. It was distressing to see Rome on my last visit as countless shops and restaurants I previously frequented have permanently shuttered since the pandemic lockdowns that were also a direct order of EU policies.
It is my hope that Meloni begins to step away from the Neocon agenda and focus on Italy’s economic issues. Socrates indicates that Italy is heading into a recession, and we saw the Italian share market crash one week after the Economic Model Confidence Model target of May 7. The fiscal mismanagement of Italy and the EU as a whole is simply unsustainable and the repercussions will be felt.
Consumers have been reluctant to make the switch to Electric Vehicles, and nearly half who have experienced buyer’s remorse. A new study by McKinsey & Co.’s Mobility Consumer Pulse polled 37,000 EV owners globally, 46% of whom said they are “very likely” to switch back to the combustion engine when purchasing their next vehicle.
One of my cars is electric and it is fine for shorter trips. It would be impractical to use it as a daily vehicle as charging the vehicle takes far more time than simply stopping at the pump. A long-distance trip would be improbable. Those who cited wishing to return to traditional vehicles said a lack of infrastructure (35%) was their main gripe, with 40% saying there are not enough charging stations on highways.
The government will likely use this as a case for increasing EV charger funding, but the majority of citizens overall do not want to go electric. Why should we force all taxpayers to subsidize stations for those who can go electric? Around 34% of people who made the switch said that costs are far too high. They tout the decreased need to fuel but fail to explain that maintenance costs are far higher.
Drivers in Canada, for example, have recently realized that EV batteries were never tested on their environmental conditions. Their batteries are draining faster due to cold climates, and it takes far longer to warm the cabin. Extreme weather drastically reduces the efficiency of EVs, not to mention they cannot charge if there are issues with the power grid.
The Biden Administration spent billions over the past three years to increase charging stations across our nation’s highways, and yet, only seven have been built. Biden sanctioned EVs coming from China, and Trudeau is considering doing the same. This would have been a cheaper alternative for consumers but not an end-all solution. Every government agency supporting the Build Back Better agenda plans to force its citizens to make a switch in the coming years, whether they like it or not.
Those in nations where Rumble is banned may watch the interview on X by clicking here.
The Environmental Protection Agency wants to decimate the fossil fuel industry in the US. The European Environment Agency has planned to eliminate its fossil fuel industry as well, as has Environment Canada and every nation following the green agenda put forth by the World Economic Forum. These agencies gave Russia and the middle east a huge boost by nuking their own energy production. Adhering to targets for 2030 and 2035 required a continued diminished fossil fuel sector, with coal being targeted as one of the main perceived environmental threats.
As the WEF-led nations carry on with their own demise, their identified enemies are building their fossil fuel industries. Russia sent a shipment of coal from St. Petersburg to Mumbai this week on a 4,500-mile voyage, marking the first shipment of coal to India from Russia through the INSTC. India is praising the INSTC route, which it began constructing with Russia in the early 2000s, as the new alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. “For the first time, two trains with Kuzbass coal headed to India along the International North-South Transport Corridor. The trains set off from the Kemerovo region. They followed along the eastern branch of the INSTC through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas,” Russian Railways said on Monday in its Telegram channel.
Sanctions have not deterred Russia from exporting energy. Iran is profiting off of the sanctions as well. The need for fossil fuels has not magically disappeared. The politicians of the West want the public to believe that they can do away with the key elements to our infrastructures with the brush of a pen but it is utter nonsense as the West will require fossil fuels until a reliable alternative is widely available.
Perhaps no one has profited as much as India on the recent war. It has attempted to remain neutral, focusing on domestic interests to promote trade with both the West, China, and Russia. Politicians are OK with purchasing Russian energy from India at an increased cost. It’s preposterous and yet another reason why sanctions NEVER work.
Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks alerted the public to a new threat to national security. No, the threat is not coming from a foreign entity or nation. The threat does not involve terrorism or the rising crime rates across all US cities. Biden’s Pentagon is deeply concerned about policies for nonbinary service members.
“We’ve heard concerns about … policies focused on the needs of nonbinary service members. Please know our commitment is resolute, just as it has been over the past three-and-a-half years, to continue our progress in full alignment with our focus on readiness and our focus on the well-being of our people, on which our readiness depends,” Hicks said. The Pentagon clarified her position to Fox News by stating the highest level of America’s defense intelligence is focused on its “all-volunteer force” to ensure its readiness to mobilize.
Now, the entire transgender agenda has been presented to the public in a way where children and adults who do not identify as their birth gender may become suicidal if we do not show blind compassion. The Pentagon is certainly not concerned about mental health, just look at how they have abandoned American veterans combatting various ailments from the wars the neocons create. I believe the Biden Administration has been obsessed with transgenderism for three reasons.
The first reason is that LGBTQ issues have become the latest trendy topic of divisive politics. We are no longer men and women. Gender must be a wide spectrum with no clear definition. This ties into reason number two where you can simply forget the nuclear family ever existed as the pillar of our culture. Everyone plays the same uniform role in society and there is no need for trust or loyalty to begin in the household. Both parents must work in this economy, as it provides the government with double the taxation. The public schools may indoctrinate and program the children as they see fit. Yet another reason why they are asking kindergarteners to choose their pronouns, read books questioning the nature of “boys” and “girls,” and are implementing laws so that parents cannot know what goes on at school as they work for their paycheck-to-paycheck life.
The third reason is something sinister that will come about after the next election. There are plans behind the curtain to draft women for the first time in American history. They are already asking women in European countries to sign up for military service. A woman who I know in Germany told me that she knows people up to the age of 59 who have been asked to register for armed services.
We are all “equal” so we should all be willing to die in the next war. The public sector will look after the children while the women are gone. Even Justice Jackson on the Supreme Court, Biden’s only appointee, has refused to define the term “woman” as they are being erased from our society under the guise of equality. The woke movement is not in favor of a subset pocket of individuals in our society. The government has been bashing these terms into our minds under Biden for a reason.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
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