It’s the Inter-connectivity that is the Key


QUESTION: Hello Mr Armstrong,
I read your blog since many years (i live in France) and i’m really impressed by Socrates … You have said that the $ will going to rise against the € and it’s exactly what’s happened !!
You have said that the Dow Jones will rise into 26 000 points and will go on into 40 000 points and the Dow rise since the elction of Trump and we are going to live what Socrates has predicted !!
INCREDIBLE because all the interview and news that i have seen were going to explain that it will be the contrary. Is it the slingshot which is going to happen ? Are we waiting the rise of the Gold before to have the final signal ?
You have always said that the Gold, the $ and the Dow will rise together when the slingshot will begin … are we to this moment ? or is it too early ?
Thanks Mr Armstrong and good things to you and your team.

LB

ANSWER: Absolutely everything is connected. If you get one right, then the rest must follow. It is really impossible to have one market moving opposite of everything else. It is sort of like the world is in a Great Depression and it is impossible for one politician in one country to reverse the trend of the world. So the world economy is very much like a set of dominoes. It is impossible to reverse the trend and it just has to play out. We are not yet ready on the gold. As you can see, gold has been declining in dollars as well as euros. The markets have been consolidating waiting as people are trying to figure out if this the big crash or not. The majority keep calling for the end of times. This has been the MOST hated Bull Market in history. They keep calling for the crash ever since 2009.

Bonds & The Record High Short Position Can Majority Be Wrong?


 

QUESTION: Hi Marty,
Can you help us better understand the dynamics of the sovereign debt crisis as it relates to US Treasuries? I know we are in a global debt crisis, which will also impact US Treasuries but it seems like short treasuries is the current consensus (I believe they are currently at the biggest net short position in recent history). Since most people need to be wrong, does this suggest that as global debt unwinds that perhaps US Treasuries may still have another rally in them before the final crash?

Thank you for any insight into what we know to be the greatest bubble.

Looking forward to the WEC!
SB

ANSWER: We have to always look at markets collectively from a global perspective, and also separating the long-term from the short-term trend. It is sort of the saying you can win the battle, but lose the war. This is the same thing. In the case of interest rates, the long-term is clearly staring at higher rates square in the eyes. However, then we have shifts in trend within the short-term. For example, domestically, you have this pervasive hatred of the stock market and as an evergreen tree, they have been perpetually bearish since 2009. They have not wavered in that forecast because they have blinders on and make forecasts solely upon a flat model limited to patterns and domestic analysis at best. Therefore, there will be these bouts of flight to quality sell stocks and buy bonds. We have NOT yet crossed the Rubicon in interest rates. We still have not yet elected the 4th Monthly Bearish Reversal. When we do, the 30-year will signal the debt crisis is in full gear.

Now we have to look at this market from a Hedge Fund Manager’s world. My decision has to be made on a global scale – not domestic. This boils down to you are a prince and your father compels you to ask one of the three ugliest girls in town for a date for political reasons for the realm. So, you choose the prettiest of the three ugly sisters as they say. This is what happens internationally. You have to have money in debt because you are trying to also be diversified (I do not always agree with that strategy). Hence, the euro looks like death warmed over, political chaos is brewing, so you have to push money out the door to other currencies. Hence, the dollar keeps rising and the political rhetoric against Trump is desperate to hide the trend that his strategies have been working on bringing capital home and renegotiating NAFTA. So with the dollar strong, euro in crisis, you have no choice but to buy Treasuries even if for short-term plays.

Consequently, you can be correct that the long-term trend is UP UP AND AWAY for interest rates. However, the devil is lurking behind every rock along the path. You may be correct on the war, but lose a fortune of the short-term corrections. Hence, we have not yet crossed the Rubicon. When we do, it will be time to shout very loud so our readers will hear. We can see that the chart patterns between dollars and euro in the 30-year Treasuries is as different as night and day.

Know the Enemy


Despite the naysayers’ denials, we are at war.  Some cite President George H.W. Bush as the impetus when he signed UN Agenda 21 in 1992, calling it a One World Government, a la George Soros’s One World Order.  And with all the offenses we have seen since then, occurring more frequently now than before 9/11, we continue to misjudge our formidable foe and wait for recognizable uniforms, grander weaponry and futuristic vehicles.  Rather, one facet of the war comes by small boats and on foot.

They are a ragtag army, shabby, unruly, ungovernable with no discernible leader, although they operate in unison, and occasionally accompanied by a woman and child to confuse and tug at heartstrings.  Their methods are effective because our populace has been shamed into obediently accepting the concept of multiculturalism from tyrannical regimes over our own, believing that disparate, incongruent, and even conflicting ideas can suddenly and mysteriously blossom into harmony once they’re embraced on Western soil.

We underestimate these people of the sand, whose accomplishments cannot be measured by our standards, cannot earn our respect or Nobel prizes, yet they nevertheless manage to achieve their undertakings, reach their objectives, and day by day, spread their influence throughout the world, poisoning and destroying all they touch.  How is it that, despite their backwardness, they can infiltrate other cultures and challenge the limits of democracies, republics and kingdoms?

First, the populations of western countries have been prepared by a thorough indoctrination of  believing themselves to be the cause of the world’s woes and, therefore, the ones responsible for their welfare and apportioning our bounty.

Second, the Islamic migrants’ training derives primarily from their family structure, where there is no fealty between the man and his multiple wives and concubines, who come from a background that leaves their basic human needs unmet, and continues the same ideology into the next generations.  Their offspring carry the familial enmity with them and their religion/ideology promotes a deep-seated hatred from the moment they can understand language.  We now also recognize that they are cast out by their families during their teen years, when they are most beset by physical, cognitive, emotional, social, sexual, and spiritual challenges.  They are filled with deep frustrations and rage, prepared to overwhelm the women of the welcoming countries, while facing little opposition from the men.

Third, the migrants are menacingly – even strategically – dispersed throughout most of western Europe.  France and Germany have the largest Muslim populations in Europe – 5.7 million (8.8%) in France and 5 million (6.1%) in Germany, and constitute 25.4 percent of Cyprus’s population.  Angela Merkel admitted that multiculturalism has “utterly failed,” as mosques are replacing churches, and attacks against Jews increase.  Sweden has become a “disaster, with her generous policy of mindless immigration and inability to control them, and 61 no-go zones, thus seriously endangering her citizens.  At 6,620 reported rapes in 2014, an increase of 300 percent, Sweden is the Rape Capital of Europe, second only to Lesotho, Africa.  The jihadi-rapists are Salafists who demand that women be veiled, disallow votes, and threaten business owners with decapitation, while the Swedish political leaders avert their attention.  Britain’s Muslims are responsible for kidnapping female students off the streets for sex trafficking.  “Grooming gangs”  abused more than 700 women and girls (sometimes boys) in North East section alone, including rape, supplying drugs and trafficking for sexual exploitation.

Fourth, by 2050, the Muslim population could double due to the overwhelmingly young male influx with high fertility rates.  The welcoming European countries are over-extended with the burden of providing food, clothing, shelter, healthcare and education in the billions of Euros; and dealing with the decline of societal cohesion, neighborhoods-turned-no-go-zones, a general rise in criminality; and a rise in Islamic-style crimes of gang rape, kidnapping and sexually enslaving young women and children.

Disclaimers be damned, France’s character is hanging in the balance. Her Muslim minority, now estimated at 4.2 million (5% of the population) considers itself a new nation that will emerge as an Islamic African nation in 30 years due to rampant immigration by teens and young adults with a 33% higher birthrate than the indigenous French.  Their more than 700 Muslim neighborhoods are rife with riots, violence and law-breaking, unemployment, and increased Islamic identification with their women wearing the veil.  Rape is up 20%. Some 500,000 Muslims are said to be converts, while, by contrast, the Catholic church and clergy are on a dramatic decline.  “France is no longer France”; “Paris is no longer Paris.” It is now a state of fear, with increasing Muslim assertiveness.

The French authorities, Globalists, are more than mere bystanders.  They are complicit in destabilizing the values and identity of the occupied country.  Nathan, France’s most popular, controversial and government-funded textbook publisher, has produced books that are clearly indoctrinal.  A math book last year featured a math problem about drowning migrants.  This year, it produced a 32-page, sex-educational manual, “How to make babies,” read by millions of children, age five and older.  It contains love-making instructions and drawings of mixed-race couples, always unveiled white women with darker-skinned Arab-Muslim men – obvious thought reform.  The books address “love,” but there is no love in the multiple, non-consensual Islamic marriages.  Neither do the textbooks address what happens to French white girls who marry the older Muslim men.  When he returns with his bride to his country of origin, she faces the full impact of Sharia – beatings, imprisonment for disobedience, and she may be prevented from ever returning to her Western home.

Globalists accept the multitudes and endless chain-migration families on the absurd and deceitful premise that all cultures are equal, employing the same tactics used by other tyrannies.  Our own leftists have supplied our schools with the like-minded and proselytizing teaching materials to produce a compliant generation that is tolerant of the intolerable.  Our textbooks have long been teaching that America is colonialist and guilty of slavery.  The fact that we were among the first countries to abolish slavery has been omitted from the text.

Our children are no longer learning the truth about our country’s history and founding.  As we saw during the Kavanaugh hearings, young women are reacting viscerally that all men are guilty of crimes, and all contradictory opinions must be screamed down.  Our boys are being debilitated, ridiculed and feminized (emotionally emasculated) to the extreme.  They are eagerly accepting their leftist instructors’ views on whitewashed progressivism, communism, and Islamism; weakened in morality and responsibility for jobs and families, and proving to be less qualified to join the armed forces should they be needed for defense.

Cicero warned, “A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within.”  The Globalist regime has their army from within – the world’s children. 

 

By Tabitha Korol

https://tinyurl.com/y7e6z63d

 

Understanding the New Age of Inflation


QUESTION: As an avid reader of your daily BLOG, I’m well aware of the attempt to abolish cash, potential freezing of bank accounts, years of negative or near zero interest rates and “helicopter money” from the government are all likely scenarios in the near to distant future. Without compromising any of your business or proprietary agreements, positions of interest, or ethics, can you suggest or provide some alternatives as to measures to take to avoid this historical “train wreck” we a doomed to experience.
May GOD have mercy on our souls!
BEF

ANSWER: I get a lot of inquiries on this subject. It is much more than I can relate in just a blog post. So I flew to Germany to do another documentary on this subject matter. I believe it will be released in a matter of weeks. I am also putting the finishing touched on a book on inflation and hyperinflation. I am also desperately trying to get this out also before the WEC this November which I hope will put forth a completely new approach to understanding inflation not just for the individual, but to central bankers and politicians as well

Did Victory Become our Guardian Angel?


QUESTION: I was told that Michael the Arc Angel was fashioned after Victory. Is that true?

ANSWER: Well it is hard to say that he specifically was fashioned after the ancient image of Victory, which goes back to Greek times – pre-Roman. There is the Greek statue in the Louvre of Victory or Nike standing on the prow of a ship. You obviously see the wings after which Christians at least adopted the image of an angel.

The personification of military Victory is, at least on the coins, one of the most enduring of Roman depictions. The direct counterpart to the Greeks‘ Nike, Victoria figures prominently not only as one of the most generic coin types but is also heavily rendered in Roman friezes, statuary, and jewelry from one end of the empire to the other.

It would be difficult to find an emperor who did not strike a VICTORIA AVG issue whether the reign was beset by wars or enjoyed prolonged peace. So pervasive is the iconography of this martial protector that even the most ardent Christians were unable to dislodge her primacy in the populace.


To avoid the potentially disastrous conflicts that might have stemmed from prohibiting her imagery and adulation it was decided to simply Christianize her along with her inseparable attributes of wreath and palm.

By the fifth century, with old school paganism fast on the wane, her memory had been fully co-opted into Christian lore so that the representation would now be interpreted as the depiction of an angel or, if not too redundant, a guardian angel whose presence will ensure continued victory against infidels.

As far as Michael is concerned, it would be the only speculation if Victory was transformed into him directly. The only thing that can be supported is that angels were then pictured as the image of Nike and the Roman Victory. It is just imagery

Beware of the Real Debt Crisis on the Horizon – not the BS on TV


We have to come to the reality that from 2019 onward, we are headed into a Pension Crisis that will be serious. Many are starting to yell about the debt crisis. They lump on private debt and yell its a bubble. What they miss entirely is the fact that we face more than a decade of crises that would have been avoidable, had governments been actually managers and central bank had not tried to keep using Keynesian Demand Side Economics that even Paul Volcker warned back in 1978 had failed.

This is by no means prophecies of doom and gloom. Unfortunately, they are prophecies not even of a pessimist, but only facts that are comprehensible simply using a pocket calculator and not even a computer. The Pension Crisis is the end of Socialism. Promises that were made which were never sustainable but were a scheme to win votes. Then the money needed to pay the pension required 8% interest annually. Then the central banks enter the game and mess everything up even more. Instead of DIRECTLY aiding the economy, they lower rates and HOPE that the banks will pass it along. They never did. The banks parked the money at the Excess Reserve Window that the Fed has still not closed.

The cost of pensions is currently stifling Western society beyond belief. Europe itself is ahead of the curve and will crack before the United States. Europe already has between  30% to 40% of the population who have already retired or are about to leave the labor market. They have used the old Roman pension system of the army which was earning an average of 20 years service to qualify for a pension. It was the pensions which contributed to the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.

We have to realize that government state pensions are the real crisis. Like California, their solution is always to raise taxes to pay for government pensions. The amount of social insurance contributions and taxes is determined by the cost of providing retirement benefits. The Fed is trying to raise rates, but they fear raising them back to 8% too fast will disrupt the economy. The pressure is building on the ECB in Europe behind the curtain to stop this nonsense of Quantitative Easing that has failed to start with and is now the cause of a massive Pension Crisis for the next 10 years. This condition of a shortfall cannot change immediately and raising taxes to try to solve the problem will only lead to further economic decline.

 

Why Capital Flows Are the Only Real Guide to Market Trends


QUESTION: Hello Martin

I wish all the best for you. The work you make every day to rise up our understanding about the world is amazing and make me feel a huge respect. it is very inspiring. I’m a small customer of your private blog. I don’t know if you answer that kind of request.

I want and I need to understand WHY the dxy was in bull market between march 2000 and feb 2002, from 102 to 113.

you are unbelievable when times come to understand economic history. I can’t find any explanation about this period
M2 supply decreased softly the twin deficit stood around 2% with no hope of getting better and it reversed after 2002 to 8% !!!

Interest rates were declining stock indexes were very bear from the tech turnmoil

Gold was bottoming from 420 to 380 with a reverse pattern during summer 2001. the dxy rise more than 3% after the bottom of gold in 1 year !
how could this DXY get up 10% higher in 2 years ??? what is the secret of history I miss ???? I believe there is something to learn with that period !
kind regards

CD

ANSWER: While the Euro began really in 1999, the physical notes did not come into circulation until 2000. The euro hit its all-time high shortly after its launch at the start of 1999 at that point in history which marked the euphoria of the talking heads on TV and how the Euro would crush the dollar. As always, they talked everyone into buying the high. As we say, buy the rumor and sell the news. That is an INCREDIBLY good market rule.

But The Euro began to slide thereafter, falling to a record low of 82.3 US cents in October 2000. However, both the euro and sterling then recovered at the lows when rumors began that an intervention by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan was imminent. In late afternoon trading that day, one euro bought 82.74 and one pound was worth $1.4329. They also spread rumors that Iraq would soon start to price its oil exports in euro and abandon the dollar.

The entire rally has absolutely NOTHING to do with the economic numbers in the United States. The capital inflows to the USA began over FEARS of the Euro. One major central bank was leaking inside info to us to get it out because we were NOT mainstream press and the info was going DIRECTLY to the real institutional money. They were deeply against the Euro because of the faulty design. It was a political creation that nobody in their right mind would have created such a currency under this structure. So the capital fled Europe and this was one of the reasons why the DOT.COM bubble was so big. It was aided by foreign capital fleeing Europe, to begin with.

The economic numbers are nice. But they are NEVER the entire story. Capital can flee one region because of events there and they may be going to a place that is not up to par, but still, it is the best alternative. Capital Flow Analysis which we developed is by far the only way to grasp the full extent of the economy.

AfD is now in Second Place in German Polls


Many people have initially said that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party would never rise. The AFD has now has risen to the second highest party in Germany. It is truly astonishing that people just never look at history. I have received many emails from Germany asking how could I have forecast that they would rise to such heights 2 years ago when nobody else did? Besides the fact that the computer made that projection, it was still something I could have forecast just glancing at the data. Why? Because history repeats.

I have stated many times, Angela Merkel created this entire mess simply to reverse her polls when they were turning against her because of her hard line against Greece who had forgiven Germany’s debt at the end of the war. You simply DO NOT open the doors to refugees that were dominated by just men who were economic migrants mixed with potential terrorists. She has created this entire refugee mess and the rise of the AfD is the reaction.

The AfD is now listed as the country’s second most popular party in a recent poll, with 18% support, reducing the mainstream Social Democratic Party (SDP) which has historically been Marxist and came to power with the Weimar Republic against which Adolf Hitler rebelled. The AfD is no Adolf Hitler. The mere fact they are against the refugees renders then far-right. They are a nationalist party – plain and simple, which is rising up throughout Europe at this time. Even Trump is in the category of a nationalist. The SDP is now in third place

Silver v Gold Standard


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You do not give much credence to the world returning to a gold standard. Didn’t the entire world use the gold standard before?

Thank you for your input

JK

 

ANSWER: The entire world has NEVER been on the gold standard simultaneously. Asia was on a silver standard while the West was on a gold standard. Above is the first coin struck in Hong Kong in 1866 which was the Hong Kong Dollar. The West struck Trade Dollars during the 19th century to pay for goods from Asia and they were silver – never gold. Here is an example of both the British and American trade dollars used in payments particularly with China.

 

It is just not practical that we have a monetary system that is based upon a commodity. The true value of money is the productive-capability of its people. China, Germany, Japan, all rose from economic depression WITHOUT gold. They did it with the productive capacity of the people. The produce whatever and sell it to someone else and then get gold or whatever in return. This theory that you have nothing without gold is just stupid. It would mean that no nation could ever rise no matter how good their people are because they lack a natural source of gold.

The collapse of the Turkish lira is a reflection of the collapse in confidence in the government. The same has taken place in Venezuela. China and Japan rose from the ashes, not because of their possession of commodities, but because they could bring their people to bear and produce various items efficiently and cost-effective. It was the people first that produced the economic recovery and then they bought even gold.

HYPERINFLATION has nothing to do with the quantity of money – that unfolds when the CONFIDENCE in the government collapses. You cross that line from normal inflation all nations experience into the realm of a collapse in the faith and trust of government. This is HOW revolutions even unfold. They have nothing to do with the quantity of money.

Nigel Farage on the Lack of Democracy in Europe