Tag Archives: BREXIT

Jan 6 2018

BitCoin Reality Check?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency

RE-Posted Jan 6, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
Jan 6 2018

The Technology Advance in War will Increase Civilian Casualties


Armstrong Economics Blog/War

Re-Posted Jan 6, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty. Hi.

In your article, you stated that when the unemployment goes up, they take us to war to cut down the population. True but now its different.

WW2 was a big historical change in who gets killed. WW1 and previous wars typically it was the soldiers who die. WW1 only saw about 5% > fewer civilians die. Once we got to WW2 we saw 80% of the deaths were civilians. Ever since then, mostly civilians die in wars now.

It was the technology shift that has brought about this.

So now, Kim and Trump push some buttons and millions of civilians die.

OK. Been cold up here. Getting down to -13° this weekend. And were on the warm side of the lake Lol.

N

REPLY: You are correct. The impact of war is much different today. The civilian casualties will be much greater than in previous wars. That’s technology for you. Keep warm. It is even snowing as far south as Tallahassee. This is one forecast I wish would be wrong.

Jan 5 2018

At What Point do we reach Euphoria in the Equity Markets?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts

Re-Posted Jan 5, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:

Marty,

John Templeton has said “Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” “If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.”

My question is…….. at what point do we reach euphoria in the equity markets?

ANSWER: Our Energy Models are designed to ascertain that dimension of a market. Naturally, everyone responds to whatever the last event is in recent memory. Therefore, the 2007-2009 Crash lives on in their experience so that means they will be skeptical of new highs. We have witnessed that with analysts constantly calling for every new high would be the last. They keep trying to forecast the last event because they missed that one as well.

The only way to approach this is from a quantitative viewpoint. Human opinion will inevitably be wrong no matter who it is. How the market responds to our Energy Models is critical for long-term forecasting. Look at the chart for 1929. Here you see that there is a huge spike in energy which peaked in February 1929. The market rallied to new highs but note that the Energy Models we not making new highs. This peak BEFORE the major high confirmed a very serious undermining of the market structure warning that this type of high was a Bubble and therefore would not be exceeded for decades.

Now compare this to the Energy Models for the 2007 high. We do not have aBUBBLE formation at all and the high came on the reaction high following the major high for the move. This confirmed this was by no means a BUBBLE and in fact new record highs would be make once again.

Let’s turn to the DOT.COM BUBBLE. The first thing you will notice is that the Energy was clearly in a BUBBLE formation. The slight difference here is that the Energy Model peaked the week after the high rather than before. This confirmed that it was not going to be a 1929 type event and the new record highs would be made which indeed unfolded in April 2015 which was 61 quarters intraday and 66 quarters to close above the 2000 high on a quarterly basis.

Here is gold for the 1980 BUBBLE. Once again you see the extreme BUBBLE formation and here the peak took place with the peak in gold. So while we are not looking at the same type of formation with the peak unfolding in advance of the high as in 1929, this reflected that gold would eventually make new record highs within a mid-term perspective. Unquestionable, it took 19 years for gold to decline before the major low was established. Gold finally exceeded the 1980 high during the crisis of 2008.
Now, let us look at the current situation. Again we do not have a major BUBBLE formation. What we do have is a market that is still expanding and in fact, the high on our Energy Models on the weekly level took place last week. This implies we would still press higher into January and that has been out target once you exceeded the November high.
We are by no means in a 1929 BUBBLE type of formation. Here is the view of the 1987 Crash. Like Gold, the peak came 1 week following the high. Yet we see escalating advances in Energy leading into the 1987 high. So far, we lack that type of pattern warning that the real advance in our Energy Models is yet to come.
Therefore, the answer to your question is rather simple. It is always a matter of TIME rather than price. As markets rally, human interpretation of price will always be wrong. NOBODY is going to call this final high from a human perspective and anyone who claims that will be a fraud. It is not a matter of opinion for we can personally only forecast what we think is possible, to begin with.
Jan 5 2018

Is BREXIT in Trouble? Can Britain Survive Past 2042-2044?


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Jan 5, 2018 by Martin Armstrong


The REMAIN crowd is doing everything possible to surrender the sovereignty, dignity, and future of Britain. The left is taking hold in Britain calling anyone who wants to leave the EU is now openly called a “racist” and they are bashing anyone who even appears to be nationalist.

While the British pound closed 2017 at 13501, it finished the year in a long-term bearish position. We now have politicians rebellion and saying that the question was too complicated for the average person to understand and so the referendum should be put aside. This is keeping in line with the anti-Democratic policy adopted in the EU to deny the people the right to vote on the European Project – the surrender of all sovereignty to Brussels.

Unfortunately, our model has not indicated any change in the long-term trend. The Euro still closed in a bullish position relative to the cross with the pound sterling. Support lies at 88120 for 2018 on Euro/Sterling. We elected a Yearly Bullish Reversal back for the close of 2016 and that has dominated the trend as 2017 closed high with an inside trading year.

The posture, overall, shows that this remains in a questionable position. The early election called by PM May was a disaster and has opened the door for the REMAIN crowd to overthrow the vote by painting anyone for BREXIT as a racist and we now hear the politicians saying that Parliament should decide and not the people. If they succeed in this movement, we seem to be on schedule for the complete collapse of Britain come 2044 where it too will split up into regions as it had begun.

 

During the reign of Eadgar (959-975 AD), England was united under one ruler. It was Eadgar who instituted a uniform coinage throughout the land. Eadgar set the pattern for the ‘reformed’ coinage of the later Anglo-Saxon and Norman period and standardized the use of the king’s portrait as in old Roman tradition.

Here too, we are reaching 21 cycles of the ECM 51.6-years from the reign of Eadgar, which also confirms independently 2042-2044 the likelihood of England breaking apart back toward the regions that were united by Eadgar will be the fate of Britain.

Jan 4 2018

The 2017 Closing US$ – Gold – Dow


Armstrong Economics Blog/Dow Jones

Re-Posted Jan 4, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Dow failed to OPEN above the 2017 Intraday high so we are not yet ready for prime time. This is still a 0ff-Broadway play, but we are getting closer. The dollar still finished neutral so it too is not yet ready for its move higher. Gold closed in a positive position for the end of 2017 confirming the posture in the dollar.

We will review all the world markets for 2018 in the coming Outlook Report for 2018.

Jan 4 2018

Housing Begins to Crash – Australia – New Zealand – London


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate

Re-Posted Jan 4, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Property values are starting to crash hard in Sydney Australia, New Zealand, and London. Politicians are simply idiots. They all targeted foreigners buying property as the leading cause for the rise in housing prices. What they failed to grasp is that people spend more money when they THINK they have equity in their home. Whenever housing starts to decline, so does consumer spending and guess what – you get the economi9c downturn. Dah!

Jan 3 2018

Universal Basic Income – Insanity or Rational?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Jan 3, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: What is your opinion of Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg idea of universal income?

ANSWER: The idea of free money being touted by Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg only demonstrates that they know nothing about humanity or economics. They see universal free money as a cushion for workers whose jobs might be replaced by automation or robots. They argue that free money could provide workers with the flexibility to retrain for a new career, pursue creative interests, or start their own business.

If we are talking about a temporary benefit during a retraining period, then that is an entirely different idea from a universal basic income guarantee. You can drive down the streets in New Jersey and you see hand-made signs posted that they pay cash for diabetes medical material handed out free by the government. They also sell food stamps. You cannot change humanity. Some people will obey the rules and others will circumvent them.

The last thing you want to do in society is provide to the population some sort of guaranteed income where people can stay home and do nothing. This will foster the same hatred of anyone who works and has more than they do and it will promote hatred and class warfare.

When the automobile was invented, that displaced people who were carpenters making wagons. When the Dust Bow hit during the Great Depression, it added to the displacement of farmers. The tractors replaced people tilling the soil just as the cotton gin replace slave labor in the South. Technology will always replace workers and the greater the tax burden, the greater the incentive to replace workers.

Neither Elon Musk nor Mark Zuckerberg has any clue about economic history for if they did, they would understand that technology always advances and displaces segments of the workforce. This is also one reason governments like war to thin the herd when unemployment rises.

Providing free money is actually an experiment in Finland. It began one year ago taking 2,000 unemployed Finns who were randomly selected from across the country for a trial testing universal basic income. Each month for two years they would receive €560 euros from the government, tax-free. They can spend the money however they decide. The plus of this program is the reduction in bureaucracy. As I said, the US government hands out food stamps but people sell them. From an economic standpoint, this system is less costly than the current one in play with bureaucrats determining what they will allow people to have or not. The full report on the Finland experiment will not be issued until the 2-year program is complete after January 1st, 2019.

 

Jan 2 2018

JFK TRUTH – The Mob, CIA and the 8 paid ASSASSINS


Published on May 11, 2017

November 22, 1963, eight Assassins were paid 50,000 each, to assure our Leader of the free world JFK, CAMELOT, would never survive another day. The meeting the day prior of the plan and the participants who wanted him dead would surprise you. All conspiracy theories, and recent books still do not tell you the truth, as they were also paid by the CIA, since the original patsy, Lee Harvey Oswald story, is proven to not even be possible. This is the true story and explanation to what really took place that day. It’s disturbing, embarrassing, and hurtful our nation, planned his assassination; for money, power, and different political ambitions. This is a non monetized, brief encounter to the JFK Murders explained from the film that is over 3 hours long. “JFK 911 A Rich Mans Game” that I shortened to get to THE POINT of the JFK murders truth, and explains why the other conspiracy theories are NOT TRUE. AND THIS IS THE TRUTH YOU HAVE BEEN LOOKING FOR!
Jan 2 2018

Bitcoin Still in Trouble


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency

Re-Posted Jan 2, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The rally in BitCoin was a perfect 13 weeks up from the last strategic low. It peaked with the Weekly Array the week of 12/18 which was both a Panic Cycle and a Directional Change. However, with the impending ban in South Korea on trading cryptocurrencies, the high of December appears to be at least an important temporary high. A weekly closing back below 9425 will ten to confirm the end of the bull market for now.

South Korean plans to restrict cryptocurrency trading. Bitcoin investors saw the collapse to $13,600 from the previous day trading at $16,500 dollars. South Korea, one of the world’s most important countries for virtual currency trading, wants to ban the opening of anonymous accounts for cyber currencies, among other things. There will also be a new law that will allow regulators to close stock exchanges where Bitcoin & Co. is traded under certain circumstances. “We share the view that cryptocurrency trading is irrationally overheating,” the government said. “We can no longer tolerate this abnormal speculation.”

Nearly a million people are estimated to own Bitcoin. South Korea is very important because it represents around one-fifth of Bitcoin’s global trade. Regulation by South Korea is extremely important. Even the German financial supervision warns that the risk is total loss for investors. Many view this as if it were the Dutch Tulip Bubble since BitCoin cannot be used in the economy in a fair and orderly manner.

Jan 2 2018

Understanding Cycles & Dynamic Inter-connectivity


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease

Re-Posted Jan 2, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I really do not think the world respects your work. I read on your blog there was going to be a bad flu from Australia that would hit Britain. Then a few days later, the headline here is all about what you forecast. You really have to go public and let people support your work in a meaningful way. The world really does need to listen.

All the best from your former home.

EB

REPLY: I understand. I get a lot of emails on this subject. The world is not ready to understand cycles. All the methods of analysis are generally wrong. All the analysts who try to compete with me do so on an OPINION basis, not methodology. They offer their OPINION and pound their chest. This is not about OPINION. This is about global correlation. We all have opinions and they are never 100% perfect. There have been times my personal “opinion” has been proven wrong by Socrates. This is why I always try to make sure “opinion” is separates from a forecast.

How many times have we heard some food is bad for you and then they reverse it a decade later? The standard method of analysis is always trying to reduce everything to a single cause of action. That methodology is lethal to knowledge and the future. It blocks our advancement in every field of science like Global Warming. Let’s see, it has gotten warmer in the past 25 years so that must be because of cars. They start with that assumption and never test the data before 1850 because there were no cars then. Why bother? We know the cause is cars, they say. So look for data to prove the assumption.

This to me is absurd. You can also say everyone who has ever eaten a carrot had eventually died and that means carrots must be long-term deadly. It was assumed that illness was in the blood. So the logical conclusion was to bleed people. If they died, it was never because they took too much blood, but they did not bleed them soon enough.

I just am tired of beating my head against a brick wall. Society has to break and only then will we look to new dynamic interconnectivity that is the path to understanding. There are those in New York City who just cannot stand what I do. They refuse to consider there is a methodology at issue here and prefer to blame me the messenger claiming I have too much “influence” and that is why they are wrong. They would try to kill me if they could since they tried that one before but I survived. Why admit you may be wrong when you can blame someone else for your failures? That, unfortunately, infects a large part of humanity.

Going public is the only way to preserve this research and push it forward for posterity. I have not changed my mind. We were granted our business license in China. It took three years of investigation and that is by no means an easy accomplishment. So we now have the seal of approval from China and that will be the biggest market the other side of 2032. Now we are getting closer to going public