Venezuela Oil Industry Collapsing & May Take the Gov’t With It


Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserve in the world. However, they are out of gasoline. The government has attributed this to poor management which has led to the stoppage of 80% of the country’s refineries. So much for socialism. The assumption that government is competent of managing anything is proven by this very example.

My old friend, Milton Friedman, said it best:

“If you put the Federal Government in charge of the Sahara desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand.”

A general with no energy experience was put now in charge of the state oil company. The problem has been political arrests has witnessed a mass migration of those with talent leaving the country with incompetent management. This has resulted in the oil industry simply collapsing as production is plummeting. A lack of investment compounded from the private sector and a collapse in cash flow coupled with chronic shortages of spare parts have crippled operations and we are looking at the first stage of how a government itself collapses under socialism.

Why Was Jesus Crucified?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You are clearly a Roman scholar.  Is it true that the Romans used crucifixion only for political crimes and that the two who were crucified with Jesus were not thieves but rebels? There has been some debate on this subject. I would like to hear your views.

Thank you

WR

ANSWER: Jesus’ crime was really sedition and not blasphemy. The high priests may have seen this as blasphemy, but Jesus would never have been put to death by the Romans for such a local issue. The Romans practiced freedom or religion. They allowed the provinces that they had conquered to retain their own gods. Even the Roman Emperor Elagabalus (218-222AD) was an heir to the throne being of the Severian House. He had been a priest in Emesa of the sun god, which is the modern city of Homs in Syria today. He worshiped a black meteor that had fallen from the sky and a temple had been built for this stone of god (see above). When Elagabalus became emperor, he carried the Stone of Emesa to Rome and built a temple there. After he was murdered, the Romans respectfully returned the stone to Syria as to not offend any god. As for the Black Stone of Emesa is concerned, it was most likely smashed to pieces when the temple was converted into a Christian church at some point during the 4th Century AD by the Byzantines.

Therefore, the only possible way that Jesus would have been crucified was for a civil crime, not a religious one, and the penalty had to be only for sedition, which is conduct or speech inciting people to rebel against the authority of a state. It is rabble-rousing, incitement to rebel, subversion, troublemaking, but not a religious issue. Therefore, the high Jewish priests took Jesus to the governor and had to make their case that he was inciting a rebellion against Rome by claiming to be King of the Jews. Pilate interrogates Jesus:

“You are a king, then!” said Pilate. Jesus answered, “You say that I am a king. In fact, the reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth. Everyone on the side of truth listens to me.

“What is truth?” retorted Pilate. With this he went out again to the Jews gathered there and said, “I find no basis for a charge against him.”

Rome’s punishment only for a political crime was a crucifixion, which was a public display that was painful, and a visible warning to others. There is no possible way that the two men crucified with Jesus were common thieves. The sentence of crucifixion was only something that Rome could order. The two men who were killed along with Jesus are identified in the Gospel of Nicodemus as Dismas and Gestas.

Luke 23:39-41 says, “One of the criminals who hung there hurled insults at him: ‘Aren’t you the Christ? Save yourself and us!’ But the other criminal rebuked him. ‘Don’t you fear God,’ he said, ‘since you are under the same sentence? We are punished justly, for we are getting what our deeds deserve. But this man has done nothing wrong.’”

Matthew refers to Barabbas who is released by Pilate in place of Jesus only as a “notorious prisoner” and that would never imply a common thief. Mark and Luke further refer to Barabbas as one involved in a στάσις (stasis, a riot), probably one of the numerous insurrections against the Roman power who had committed murder. The translation as “thieves,” however, the word can also mean “insurgents,” and it is more-likely-than-not that the two were co-conspirators of Barabbas rather than thieves. This is the only possibility that would support the sentence of crucifixion, which was a political weapon used to send a message to those still living: Do not engage in sedition or this will be your fate.

Crucifixion was an execution that was severe and reserved for political crimes, not common thieves. The more common method of execution in the Roman Empire was by strangling. Even the leader of the Gauls, Vercingetorix, who was an adversary was put on display in a triumph of Julius Caesar and then strangled – not crucified. This was simply a captive of a conquered nation or group who had not been under Roman rule and thus did not warrant crucifixion.

Spartacus (111-71BC) was a Thracian gladiator who escaped and became a slave leader during the Third Servile War, a major slave uprising against the Roman Republic. Crassus crucified 6,000 of Spartacus’ followers on the road between Rome and Capua pictured here in the 1878 painting by Fyodor Bronnikov. Again, the punishment of crucifixion is employed for rebellion. Even Karl Marx listed Spartacus as one of his heroes and described him as “the most splendid fellow in the whole of ancient history” and a “noble character, real representative of the ancient proletariat”.

Therefore, from a historical perspective of Roman law, Jesus would then have been crucified ONLY as a rebel and not for blasphemy. Giving a choice to the crowd between Jesus and Barabbas would not have been plausible unless they both stood for the same type of offense of sedition. This to me is clear evidence of the political nature of Jesus’s execution and was not merely a local religious issue but was a crime of sedition against the Roman Empire.

Erdoğan Wants to Revise the Treaty of Lausanne


The War Cycle is in full swing upward since 2014. We have witnessed the invasion of Ukraine, the invasion of Syria, Rocketman in North Korea, and numerous civil uprisings. However, the war also comes with sharply declining economies as political leaders need to point the finger outside their domestic rule to distract their people.

The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is also on a power trip and the sharply collapsing currency only puts more pressure on him to start conflicts. That basic incentive has played out with his visit to Greece in December. This was the first time a Turkish leader visited Greece in 65 years. As the Guardian reports, Erdoğan shocked Greece by calling for a revision of the Lausanne Treaty of 1923. The Turkish president in Turkey has sharply criticized the opposition for this demand and as always there is the justification for protecting people of Turkish origin living in Greece. Hitler used the same excuse to invade neighbors to defend Germans living on foreign lands.

The Treaty of Lausanne marks the conclusion of the four-year Greco-Turkish War, which regulated the demarcation between Greece and Turkey and the rights of the religious minority in the other country. Keep in mind that Turkey was the seat of the Ottoman Empire that conquered Constantinople and renamed it Istanbul. The Church of St Sophia became the Blue Mosque. So the conflicts between Greece and Turkey extend back thousands of years. Turkey was originally Anatolia settled by Greeks. They were conquered by Cyrus the Great of Persia and then by Rome. The Turks invaded from Turkestan and thus the ancient land of Anatolia became Turkey. This was where written language and even money were both born.

Erdoğan, while visiting Athens, accused the Greek government of not allowing the Turkish minority to vote for muftis, as promised in the treaty. Instead, the religious jurists would be appointed by the government. The Turkish President had questioned the Treaty of Lausanne in an interview with the Greek broadcaster Skai TV before leaving for Athens. Airspace and the maritime border could be “improved”, Erdoğan said.

In the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923, Greece had been given almost all the Aegean islands off the Turkish coast. The Greek Islands comprise more than 6,000 islands and islets covering much of the eastern Mediterranean. Only about 230 Greek islands are inhabited and, of these, just 80 or so have more than 100 permanent inhabitants.

Erdoğan has domestic problems with the currency moving dangerously toward hyperinflation, which only unfolds when confidence in the government collapses. Turkey’s currency is being attacked from all sides. In October 2017, the Turkish lira collapsed when Turkey and the United States suspended bilateral visa processing, which was restored in early November. However, our model is warning that the Turkish lira will collapse into 2021.

Erdoğan is obviously trying to create an external enemy as the domestic economy turns against his policies. For several months, Erdoğan is trying hard to provoke a conflict in the Aegean Sea of Greece. On April 16th, 2017, Greek Minister of Defense Panos Kammenos and Greek Commander-in-Chief Alkiviadis Stefanis flew to Agathonisi Island, just off the Turkish coast. There they carried out an action with several soldiers. Lambs were roasted on a skewer, which was a symbolic action that dates way back to the Greek occupation of Turkey from 1919 to 1922. At that time, the Greek occupiers in the conquered territories of Turkey roasted lamb on skewers to make it clear to the Turks that they would be defeated.

Erdoğan asserts that the protection of the rights of ethnic Turks is his “top priority” and he wants to visit the Turkish minority in the northern Greek region of Thrace. Erdoğan was twice in Athens before back in 2004 and 2010. But it is the first visit of a Turkish head of state in Greece since 1952.

Erdoğan also criticized the implementation of the EU refugee pact with Turkey in Athens. The EU had “not fulfilled any of its economic promises”, while its country has kept all promises, Erdoğan said. He has long accused the EU of failing to fulfill its part of the March 2016 agreement, including the payment of aid.

 

Erdoğan also criticised the matter of the eight military personnel who had fled to Greece after the coup attempt in a helicopter. Erdoğan stated that Greece promised to extradite those men to Turkey, but that still had not happened.

BRICS the Rise & Fall


The first thing to go when a country is moving into economic crisis is the arts. This is intermixed with various social programs. As the economic crisis broadens, demand for taxing the rich rise. However, all this accomplishes is to cause capital to hide and hoard even more refusing to invest or spend and this then adds to the economic decline.

The BRICS were touted as the new rage in the world economy. The BRICS were even holding their own summits and they were supposed to surpass the G7, were all the forecasts. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa became known as the “BRIC” nations back in 2001 which was a term coined by of course Goldman Sachs.

This curiosity about how the BRICS would displace the G7 as the world leading economic power was up there with the DOT.COM bubble and more recently the BitCoin Bubble. This five-country association of emerging economies has demonstrated that such hype of counting on such fades to alter the future have always ended in disappointment.

Russia ran into an economic headwind and sanctions, China has slowed remarkably and has now shifted its focus to try to build its internal economy as we see in Suadi Arabia and the UAE in the Middle East. India committed suicide trying to force its economy out of a cash-based economy with his leftist Prime Minister who has done far more harm to India than good.

South Africa has seen political change sweeping the nation because of the failure of this BRIC dream. The new ANC government of South Africa wants to nationalize the central bank and expropriate the white minority. They want to now take control of the central bank 100% and you know what that means – total economic disaster. The bank will now become the political tool of government divorcing any economic management whatsoever.

Then there is Brazil, burdened with corruption and everything within the social structure is collapsing. The symbol of this economic failure is the effective closure of its Rio de Janeiro’s splendid Municipal Theatre which has gone dark as months of unpaid wages forced ballerinas and opera singers into poverty.

SNP INCREASE INCOME TAXES IN SCOTLAND


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong,
In stark contrast to the USA which is heading for LOWER taxes which you say will invigorate the economy,the SNP Government in Scotland has announced HIGHER income taxes “to protect public services from the cuts being imposed by the Tories.”
Clearly the SNP Government is unconcerned that its tax policies make Scotland the highest taxed part of the UK.
Interestingly the SNP approach to taxation confirms three of your views:
1.Politicians keep lowering the definition of “the rich.”Earlier this year Derek Mackay,SNP Finance Secretary,an apparatchik with no financial background,described people in Scotland earning £43,000 a year as “rich.”However in his December Budget ,higher taxes start to take effect on people earning over £33,000 a year, according to the SNP, while The Telegraph claims that people in Scotland earning as little as £26,000 a year will pay more income tax than in the rest of the UK.
2.Faced with a choice of cutting public spending or increasing taxes politicians will invariably choose the latter.The annual cost to the Scottish Government of subsidizing free prescriptions is £1 billion.Of course means testing could substantially reduce the cost but this expenditure is regarded as sacrosanct because it is an SNP flagship policy.
3.The economic illiteracy of politicians.The SNP Government has pushed through these tax increases despite the fragile state of the Scottish economy where retail spending growth over the past eight years has averaged only 0.5% against a UK average of 2.2%.Scottish economic growth has also lagged the UK in recent years.It is transparently obvious to anyone with common sense that these tax increases will have serious consequences for the Scottish economy.
REPLY: Yes, the SNP does not get it. They are headed for a major political disaster. They fail to get what they are doing is not limited to transferring the wealth from the rich to the poor, but from the people to government employees. They will pay the price at the next election.

China’s Housing Boom


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; What about the Chinese housing bubble. Why has this been so different in many ways?

IX

ANSWER: The primary difference is the simple fact that Chinese cannot take their money out of the country under the capital controls. Consequently, the property market has become their bank account. They have been moving from public to private assets in China as well. This is starkly different from housing bubbles in the West where it was not a capital shelter due to capital controls

Canadian Separatists


COMMENT: I think the danger for Canada is not Quebec leaving because they get 11 billion dollars a year given to them by the federal government, it is the provinces paying the bills that are more likely to leave, western Canada in general but especially Alberta which has been getting hosed. As you noted before resentment is what is produced by giving billions of mostly western Canadian dollars to eastern Canada each year. Now Trudeau is attacking the oil industry that pays the bills, the man is insane and destroying Canada.

RB

REPLY: I am fully aware that the Separatist movement is rising very rapidly in Canada and it is the West v East. Trudeau’s socialist agenda is again imposing the philosophy of class warfare upon the whole of Canada. This only inspires uprising and discontent as we are seeing in Europe. The very same issues were behind the Trump Revolution. The media keeps desperately trying to overthrow Trump as president to save the socialist agenda in the USA.

Understand that this is the death of socialism. As it declines as an economic philosophy, those who are diehard leftists will do whatever they can to take power back.

NAFTA & CANADA


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Up here in Canada, the politicians seem to not even talk about the NAFTA agreement being changed by Trump. Has something taken place behind the curtain that they are not even worried about that issue?

CB

ANSWER: While playing a front row seat during the 2016 Election in the States, the truth is that Trump was focusing more on Mexico than Canada. The reason why was taxes. Manufacturing plants set up in Mexico, not Canada, which taxed even higher rates than the USA.

Even Stephen S. Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, has set aside the issue of NAFTA claiming there remains uncertainty until he knows more about the nature of the risk, he will not focus of that topic.

The much greater risk to Canada will be the Trump Tax Reform. Canadians will also shift business to the States because it will save 50% in taxes. So, the tax reform is a far bigger issue than NAFTA

The Trump Tax Reform & Housing Boom


COMMENT: Martin,

It’s not just to make up for taxes lost because electric car use is up.

Rockwall, Texas has become one of the highest income per capita counties in Texas because of flight from income taxes states, especially California. Real estate prices have exploded because of growing business presence in the Dallas/Ft. Worth and flight from other states.

The business exodus and brain drain from California, coupled with the explosion of sanctuary cities there, have replaced tax paying citizens with illegals who neither pay taxes, nor get driver’s licenses, nor inspect nor register their vehicles.

The hunt for loose change continues to unfold.

BitCoin Crash


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I am very impressed. Socrates called the high in BitCoin and Thursday it wrote: “As of the close of Thu. Dec. 21, 2017: Our immediate trend model is bearish as are our momentum models so we should still expect a retest of support. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 1626085, 1626085, 1626085 and 1626085. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. ”

Even Socrates could correctly forecast this crash. Absolutely impressive!

PJK

REPLY: Yes. It caught the high rather nicely. Even the Global Market Watch calling for a temp high on the monthly level. This is monitoring thousands of markets. There is absolutely no human being who can do this and it would take an army of analysts just to write so many reports.