Posted originally on Dec 3, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

QUESTION: I want to apologize and thank you. I thought you were just a Trump supporter, but your warning that his tariffs can send the world into a depression demonstrated not just that I was wrong but that you are a genuinely impartial and independent voice in the wilderness. Here in Europe, for the last six months, the newspapers have presented Trump as the devil with no hope whatsoever. Everything you warned here about our economy with climate change and warmongering is correct. The migrant crisis combined with the economy turning down, you warned, would lead to rising civil unrest here as well. With the wave of layoffs in the auto industry, the German economy is in crash mode, as you had forecast.

A friend of mine has followed you since the 1980s. He has been telling me you were the most honest man he ever encountered, and everything you do is to try to steer the world through this chaos into 2032. I can see by your actions that he has been correct. Somehow, we have to get our leaders to listen.

Where do you see Germany headed now on your timeline?

HG

ANSWER: Unfortunately, it has been preordained that we are headed into a recession in some areas and a depression in others, especially in Europe. Trump will be blamed, as Herbert Hoover was, but in both cases, the trends were preordained. Trump, with the bad advice he has been given regarding tariffs, is likely to end up destroying the Republican Party and the implosion we are witnessing in the Democrats.

The core foundation of the entire European economy is Germany, its richest nation. As they used to say about America, if it catches a cold, the rest of the world suffers pneumonia. They say that behind the headlines of “Deutschland,” it has been structured on the automobile, which has also given rise to dubbing it “Autoland.” German cars have long been regarded as the best in the world. Indeed, Europe’s most prosperous business engine has been relying on automobiles, and the climate change agenda has been like you kill a vampire – driving a stake through the heart.

Volkswagen, Europe’s number one car manufacturer, has threatened thousands of job cuts and potential plant closures in Germany as it confronts unions over inflation. The climate change agenda has had a major impact on lowering demand, and on top of that, they are finding stiff resistance to higher-end electric cars. The current cost-cutting layoffs and proposed German plant closings are sending shockwaves into the global marketplace with worldwide implications. Automakers like Mercedes Benz, BMW, Ford, and other industrial giants are all cutting costs and employees across the country. However, Volkswagen announced layoffs for tens of thousands of workers and is considering unheard-of plant closings. The world’s largest auto parts supplier, Bosch, which is one of Germany’s biggest employers, is also reducing both hours and pay for about 10,000 employees. Even Meyer Werft, the German shipbuilder from the 1800s, also recently needed a US$423 million bailout to avoid bankruptcy.

The economic policies of Brussels have absolutely undermined the entire European economy of the EU. As I have also warned many times, Germany has clung to the old Mercantile economic model, keeping taxes high to prevent inflation and manufacturing products to sell to everyone else to bring home the profits. The auto industry will account for up to 17% of German exports in 2023. The total amount of jobs this has accounted for exceeds 750,000 people. German manufacturing has been unable to recover fully since COVID-19 2020. To this day, it has, at best, recovered to only 90% of pre-COVID levels.

The RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA propaganda of the Neocons has severely impacted Germany with the destruction of Nord Stream. The Government refuses to turn on the second pipeline and instead has forced its economy to suffer at least a 300% increase in energy costs. With cheap Russian gas no longer viable and exports to China declining, the war policies of the EU coupled with the economic crisis created by climate change and the cost of funding unproductive migrants, the prospects for the economy of Europe are pointing toward somewhat hard times into 2026. This will most likely contribute to tensions and pointing fingers at Russia to justify war being pushed by NATO.

In late October, Merceds-Benz reported that group profit dropped over 50% year over year, and Ford announced plans to cut its European workforce by 4,000 as well. Germany has depended more on Moscow and Beijing than all other EU countries. With ministers in Germany calling for Article 5 under NATO for a hybrid attack, they are unquestionably undermining the German economy with all of this geopolitical tension thrust on Europe by the Neocons. NATO is pushing to expand operations to Asia, and this is further undermining the German economy in the long term, transforming China from a viable trading partner into a systemic long-term enemy. No leaders are even interested in peace, and they are just doing as directed by the Neocons and NATO, who have no interest in the economy of the people – only waging war.

This lethal combination means that Germany’s entire economic model is under assault from every direction. Then, the tariffs of Trump’s proposals will be added, which will be the final nail in the coffin of the EU. This hybrid Merchantile Model of Germany no longer works. Germany needs major reforms, and that is not likely with Brussels in charge. This immediate lethal combination with a very cold winter expected on our model warns that Germany is headed into a serious recession for the next two years. Brussels is too interested in retaining centralized power and control over the EU member states, and it is ignoring the ripple effect of the decline in Germany throughout Europe.

THIS IS WHY THEY WILL TURN TO WAR

There is no question that the German economy is going to go down hard as this lethal combination of climate change and migration moves to give a death blow to the industrial backbone of Europe, and the politicians are too caught up in the narrative to question the rhetoric. The French head of state met the Finnish president and the Swedish prime minister, and all that came out of it was defense for war. This was an opportunity to carve a new path, but it was dominated by the Neocon speaking points – RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA. Macron only pushed the lifelong dream of Charles de Gaul (1890-1970), which was that France should rise to lead all of Europe – the Napoleon dream.

Macron stressed the need to build a powerful Europe of defense, security, and partnerships, particularly in an international context marked by a multiplication of crises and the continuation of the Neocon theme “Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine,” said the Elysée. They refuse to admit that the Ukrainian civil war was started at the instigation of the West. The solution was clear: the same outcome as the breakup of Yugoslavia into ethnic states. The Minsk Agreement that Merkel admitted was negotiated in bad faith was to allow the Donbas, which are ethnically Russian, to vote on their separation from Kyiv, which was dominated by the old Nazi ethnic cleansing.

Instead of offering any viable solution to the Ukraine War, the leaders kept up this nonsense that Ukraine could actually defeat Russia. I guess they never read the Neocon memo – kill as many Russians as possible until the last Ukrainian falls. The leaders have only stressed the need to step up support for Ukraine with the same nonsense that if Russia defeats Ukraine, they will then turn on all of Europe. This is no longer the 19th century days of empire building, and the Russian people are no longer interested in such a conquest, as Europeans want to occupy Russia.

Macron knows that France is in deep economic trouble as it has one of the highest Islamic populations, about 10%, compared to Germany at 6%. Macron keeps the prowar propaganda claiming that the aim must be thwarting Russia’s war of aggression and restoring Ukraine to its “legitimate rights, which is far from the truth. He added that the important support for Kiev included “strengthening the European defense industrial and technological base, in order to reduce our strategic dependence and reinforce our production capabilities.” Once again, Macron is still pushing France to take the lead and assume the USA under Trump will not support their endless war against Russia.

On Monday, Der Spiegel reported that Scholz made an emergency visit to Ukraine that was a surprise. He expressed his solidarity and promised Germany would remain “Ukraine’s strongest supporter in Europe.” He promised €650m in further military equipment would be delivered in December. This only prolongs the war, for with the German economy turning down very hard, he needs a distraction, which will be the war with Russia. When Biden imposed the sanctions on Russia, and gasoline prices soared, he called it “Putin’s Inflation,” as if the Ukraine Civil War caused the rise in gasoline rather than the sanctions imposed on Russia. Once again, it diverts everyone’s attention from the domestic economic turmoil to international war.

Even when we look at Renault in France, we see next year as a Panic Cycle and a Directional Change. These European leaders are pushing Europe into World War III at NATO’s direction to the peril of the European community. NATO is not necessary if there is peace. This is why they constantly beat the war drums, fearing their funding would be diverted to something else.

Marine Le Pen in France pledged to bring down Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government after he failed to meet her demands on a new budget. Barnier invoked a constitutional mechanism allowing a social security bill to be adopted without a vote, thereby eliminating democracy entirely. This only opens the door to no-confidence motions. Le Pen said her National Rally party would join a left-wing bloc to support dissolving the government. The National Rally is the largest party in the lower house of parliament, making Le Pen’s words something that warrants attention.

Peace is not profitable, and it allows the people to benefit from the private sector – rather than the government. NATO does everything it can to fuel the fire of war to ensure they keep the funding going for their pensions. Until we wake up to the plans of NATO under the entire WEF scam that they will become the military world department under the one-world government of the United Nations.

And then there is the serious threat of Trump’s Tariffs. The entire theory of Trump’s tariffs is off the wall. It has two parts. One is because of the trade deficit trying to bring back manufacturing to America, and the second is to fund the government by eliminating the income tax. Companies left not because of cheaper labor but because of insane tax policies in the USA. Eliminate the income tax, and everyone will move back, and other companies will pour into the USA real fast. This idea that we can fund the government with tariffs as we once did before the income tax sounds nice, but it is not practical. This will lead only to protectionism and retaliation against American companies. This is unnecessary, but Trump is harder to convince than getting Pelosi’s magic stock trading algorithm.